2010 Belgian federal election

Belgian general election, 2010

June 13, 2010
All 150 seats to the Belgian Chamber of Representatives and 40 (of 71) seats to the Belgian Senate
Incumbent Prime Minister Yves Leterme CD&V

General elections were held in Belgium on 13 June 2010. After the fall of the previous government over the withdrawal of Open VLD from the government the King dissolved the legislature and called new elections. The New Flemish Alliance, led by Bart De Wever, emerged as the largest party with 27 seats, just one more than the francophone Socialist Party, led by Elio Di Rupo, which was the largest party in the Wallonia region and Brussels.

Background

Fall of the government

Main article: Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde

Following a continued lack of agreement over how to resolve the conflict over the electoral arrondissement of Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde, the liberal Open VLD left the government on 22 April 2010, continuing the 2007–2008 Belgian political crisis. Prime Minister Yves Leterme (Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams) immediately offered his resignation to King Albert II, who accepted it on 26 April 2010. Following the elections held on 13 June, there were fears that coalition-building may take so long that Belgium's presidency of the Council of the European Union, which starts on 1 July 2010, might have to start under a caretaker government.

Constitutionality of elections

According to a statement by the Flemish President of the Constitutional Court, Marc Bossuyt, the elections might be ruled unconstitutional unless the Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde arrondissement is split up beforehand. On 4 May, all but one Flemish judge-president of the 13 Flemish Courts of First Instance wrote a collective letter, saying that the elections cannot be held with the current electoral districts and that a return to the previous electoral arrondissements is necessary. In contrast, Ghislain Londers, the president of the Court of Cassation declared that all judges are obliged to cooperate with the electoral process. Before the judges' letters, former president of the Belgian Chamber of Representatives Herman De Croo stated that no court could prevent the elections from taking place.

Importance of elections

The international media saw the election as crucial to determine the future of the country. Even though it was admitted that devolution would not happen immediately.

Parties

Further information: Political parties in Belgium

Flemish parties (Dutch speaking)

These Flemish parties field candidates in the regions of Flanders and the partially bilingual electoral district Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde.

• New Flemish Alliance (Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie, N-VA) -- centre-right political party, seeking secession of Flanders.
• Christian Democratic and Flemish (Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams, CD&V) -- Christian democratic party with historic ties to both trade unionism and corporative organizations.
• Socialist Party – Differently (Socialistische Partij – Anders, sp.a) -- social-democratic party.
• Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats (Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten, VLD) -- liberal party.
• Flemish Interest (Vlaams Belang) -- seeking the independence of Flanders and strict limits on immigration.
• Green! (Groen!) -- green political party.
• List Dedecker (Lijst Dedecker) -- conservative-liberal party.

Walloon parties (French speaking)

These Francophone parties fielded candidates in the region of Wallonia and in the electoral district Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde.

• Socialist Party (Parti Socialiste, PS) -- social-democratic party.
• Reformist Movement (Mouvement Réformateur , MR) -- liberal-conservative party.
• Humanist Democratic Centre (Centre Démocrate Humaniste, CDH) -- christian democratic party.
• Ecolo -- green political party.
• Popular Party (Parti Populaire) -- conservative-liberal party.

Candidates

Leterme stepped aside on 28 April 2010 and was replaced as leader of CD&V by Marianne Thyssen.

Notable newcomers in politics:

• Rik Torfs, former canon law professor at the Catholic University of Leuven, was on the Senate list for CD&V.
• Siegfried Bracke, former political analyst at the Flemish public broadcaster VRT was first on the Chamber list in East-Flanders for N-VA.
• Eva Brems, human rights professor at Ghent University and former president of the Flemish division of Amnesty International. She was head of the Chamber list in Flemish Brabant for Groen!.

Polls

As of May 26, it appeared that the major development in the election was the surge in popularity of the N-VA in Flanders. Led by Bart De Wever, it supports eventual independence for Flanders, and an immediate switch from a federal Belgium to a confederal Belgium. The N-VA replaces the CD&V of outgoing PM Yves Leterme as the most popular party in Flanders. This development opens the question of how the francophone parties might react to forming a government with an openly sovereignist, but politically centrist party if they do win a plurality of votes in Flanders. It appeared that the N-VA had attracted some popularity from the ethnic nationalist party, Vlaams Belang.

		Flemish constituency							Francophone constituency
Date	Source	CD&V	N-VA	Open VLD	SP–A	VB	Groen!	LDD	PS	MR–FDF	CDH	Ecolo	FN	PP	RWF
10 June 2007	2007 election	29.6%		18.8%	16.3%	19.0%	6.3%	6.5%	29.5%	31.2%	15.8%	12.8%	5.6%	/	/
29 March 2010	La Libre Belgique	20.0%	17.8%	13.8%	15.5%	17.3%	8.1%	5.5%	31.7%	20.5%	15.5%	20.2%	/	4.3%	/
4 May 2010	L'Avenir	18.9 %	22.9 %	14.8 %	14.2 %	12.5 %	7.9 %	3.9 %	32.5 %	21.1 %	18.2 %	17.6 %	2.9 %	<1 %	2.0%
26 May 2010	Dimarso	19.5 %	26.0 %	12.4 %	16.0 %	10.3 %	7.8 %	5.4 %
28 May 2010	Vers l'Avenir								33.0%	20.4%	17.0%	17.6%	2.5%	1.9%	1.9%
4 June 2010	Standaard/VRT	19.0 %	25.2 %	13.9 %	13.8 %	11.5 %	8.2 %	6.2 %
June 2010	La Libre Belgique	16.2 %	26 %	13.6 %	16.3 %	15 %	6.8 %	4.3 %	30 %	20.2 %	16.1 %	18.9 %	4.1 %	4.1%	/

Results

After polls showed the N-VA receiving 29% of votes in their region, media interpreted the election as a "victory for Flemish independence."

Aftermath

On possible coalitions, election winner Bart De Wever announced he would seek negotiations with the Wallonian Socialists. The Francophone Socialist Party leader Elio di Rupo was tipped to become the next Prime Minister, because the socialist parties emerged as the largest "party family" in the elections, and because the New Flemish Alliance lacks a Francophone counterpart.

Philip Blenkinsop of Reuters stated that the win of the New Flemish Alliance could have negative effects because "Belgium can ill afford drawn-out coalition talks because it has a large debt and any policy paralysis could make the country vulnerable on financial markets that are closely watching a sovereign debt crisis."