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Not to be confused with Rasmussen Report.
Rasmussen Reports
Founded2003 (2003)
FounderScott Rasmussen
Headquarters
Asbury Park, New Jersey
,
United States
ProductsOpinion polling, news
Websitewww.rasmussenreports.com

Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company.[1] Founded by pollster Scott Rasmussen in 2003, the company produces public opinion data, analysis, and commentary that is distributed through a daily email newsletter, an online video service, syndicated radio spots, a weekly television show, and a weekly newspaper column. The company's slogan is, "If it's in the news, it's in our polls".[2] Rasmussen polls are considered extremely biased and unreliable.

History

Scott Rasmussen founded his first polling company in 1994.[3] His company, Rasmussen Research, was bought by TownPagesNet.com for about $4.5 million in ordinary shares in 1999.[4] Starting in 1999, Rasmussen's poll was called Portrait of America.[5] In 2003, Rasmussen founded Rasmussen Reports, based in Asbury Park, New Jersey. He serves as president of the company.[2][6]

In August 2009, the Washington Post reported that Rasmussen Reports had received a “major growth capital investment.”[7] New Jersey Business magazine reported that the company increased the size of its staff later that year.[8]

Business model

Rasmussen Reports engages in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information, tracking the political world, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the president's job approval ratings.[1] Rasmussen Reports also conducts nightly national tracking polls and scheduled state surveys. The company provides commentary and political analysis through a daily email newsletter, syndicated weekly newspaper column, online video service, and daily spots on syndicated radio.[9][10] Since January 2012, Rasmussen Reports has published a weekly column with Creators Syndicate titled The Rasmussen Report. The column focuses on current events and underlying trends in American public opinion.[11][12] In September 2012, Rasmussen Reports and Telco Productions launched a nationally syndicated television show called What America Thinks.[13][14]

Rasmussen Reports polls make use of automated public opinion polling, involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries.[15] These types of polls are believed to produce results at low cost, although some traditional pollsters are skeptical of this methodology and prefer traditional, operator-assisted polling techniques.[2][16] Rasmussen's automated survey calls are conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, a firm that licensed methodology developed by Scott Rasmussen.[17]

Rasmussen Reports generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions.[2]

Polling topics

Political sentiment

Presidential approval tracking

Rasmussen Reports conducts a daily Presidential Tracking Poll which measures the president’s job approval rating.[18][19] Rasmussen Reports notes that, "It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. Obama's numbers are almost always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote."[18][20] Newsweek also notes that polls of all adults produce results that are more favorable to Democrats than do polls of likely voters.[21] Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com notes that, "Rasmussen's Obama job approval ratings do tend to be lower than most other polls, but they are not the lowest."[22]

In March 2009, a Rasmussen Reports poll was the first to show President Barack Obama's approval rating falling. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Scott Rasmussen, along with President Clinton's pollster, Douglas Schoen, said, "Polling data show that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001. Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama's net presidential approval rating -- which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve -- is just six, his lowest rating to date."[23]

Generic Congressional Ballot

Each week, Rasmussen Reports updates a Generic Congressional Ballot Poll. The poll tracks what percentage of likely voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, and what percentage of likely voters would choose the Democrat instead.[24][25] In 2009, Rasmussen Reports produced the first poll that showed Democrats trailing on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the 2010 midterm elections.[26]

Right direction or wrong track

Rasmussen Reports conducts a weekly tracking poll that asks voters whether they think the country is heading in the right direction or is on the wrong track.[27][28]

Healthcare reform

Since 2009, Rasmussen Reports has tracked attitudes about health care reform legislation on a weekly basis. Since the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act became law in March 2010, Rasmussen Reports has consistently measured double-digit support for repeal of the law. Across 100 polls taken from March 2010 to July 2012, likely voters have favored repeal by an average margin of 16 percentage points.[29]

Political Class/Mainstream Index

Rasmussen Reports tracks the gap between what it labels "Mainstream Voters" and the "Political Class."[30] According to the Wall Street Journal, "To figure out where people are, he [Rasmussen] asks three questions: Whose judgment do you trust more: that of the American people or America's political leaders? Has the federal government become its own special interest group? Do government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors? Those who identify with the government on two or more questions are defined as the political class."[31] Rasmussen has said, "I really do see the core issue as the political class versus mainstream voters. I think that is a much bigger gap than Republican, Democrat, conservative, or liberal."[32]

Other

The company also provides regular updates on topics including global warming and energy issues, housing, the war on terror, the mood of America, Congress and the Supreme Court, importance of issues, partisan trust, and trends in public opinion. In 2007, Tony Snow, White House press secretary for President George W. Bush, attacked a Rasmussen poll that showed only 19% of Americans believed the Iraq War troop surge of 2007 was a success.[33]

David Weigel wrote that, "where Rasmussen Reports really distinguishes itself, and the reason it’s so often cited by conservatives, is in its issue polling. Before the stimulus debate began, Rasmussen asked voters whether they’d favor stimulus plans that consisted entirely of tax cuts or entirely of spending. Tax cuts won every time, and Republicans began citing this when they argued for a tax-cut-only stimulus package."[34]

In July 2012, a Rasmussen Reports poll found that over two-thirds of Americans would fire every member of Congress.[35]

Elections

Presidential

2000

In the 2000 presidential election, Scott Rasmussen polled under the name Portrait of America, a predecessor to Rasmussen Reports.[5] The Portrait of America prediction for the 2000 presidential election was off by 4.5%,[36] compared to the average 1.1% margin of error most other national polls gave at the time.[37]

2004

In the 2004 presidential election, "Rasmussen...beat most of their human competitors in the battleground states, often by large margins," according to Slate magazine.[38] Rasmussen projected the 2004 presidential results within one percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both George W. Bush and John Kerry.[39]

In 2004, Slate said they “publicly doubted and privately derided Rasmussen” polls because of the methodology. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were the most accurate.[38]

2008

According to Politico, "Rasmussen’s final poll of the 2008 general election — showing Obama defeating Arizona Sen. John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent — closely mirrored the election’s outcome."[40] In reference to the 2008 presidential election, a Talking Points Memo article said, "Rasmussen's final polls had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%, and made him one of the most accurate pollsters out there."[41] An initial Nov.5, 2008 Fordham University analysis ranked 23 survey research organizations on the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls, assuming a 6.15% margin of victory by Obama. Rasmussen Reports and Pew Research Center tied as the most accurate.[42] Obama's actual margin was 7.2%, and a complete analysis published in 2009 by the same author, Costas Panagopoulos, revealed Rasmussen to be tied for 9th most accurate. Democracy Corps, Foxnews/Opinion Dynamic, CNN/Opinion Research, and Ipsos/McClatchy all predicted an accurate seven point spread.

Congressional and gubernatorial

In the 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial race, Rasmussen Reports' final poll predicted that Chris Christie would beat Jon Corzine by a margin of 3 points. Christie won the race with a spread of 4.3 points.[43]

In December 2009, Alan Abramowitz wrote that if Rasmussen's data was accurate, Republicans would gain 62 seats in the House during the 2010 midterm elections.[44] In a column written the week before the 2010 midterm elections, Rasmussen stated his belief that Republicans would gain at least 55 seats in the House and end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats.[45] Republicans ended up gaining 63 seats in the House, and coming away with 47 Senate seats.[46]

In 2010, Rasmussen Reports was the first to show Republican Scott Brown had a chance to defeat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race. Just after Brown's upset win, Ben Smith at Politico reported, "The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties until a Rasmussen poll showed the race in single digits in early January was that Martha Coakley was a lock. (It's hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.)"[47] A study by Boston University and the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism about how the Massachusetts Senate race was covered in the media concluded, "...Rasmussen Report’s poll that showed the overwhelming Republican underdog, Scott Brown, climbing to within single digits (nine points) of Martha Coakley. That poll, perhaps more than anything else, signaled that a possible upset was brewing and galvanized both the media and political worlds."[48] The New York Times Magazine opened a March 14 cover story with a scene highlighting the impact of that poll in an internal White House meeting involving President Obama's chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.[49]

According to Nate Silver's assessment of 2010 pollster accuracy, the 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll predicting the United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2010 missed the actual margin between the two candidates by 40 points.[50]

Business

In the business realm, Rasmussen Reports released daily updates of Consumer and Investor Confidence with daily tracking back to 2002. The broad trends are similar to measures produced by the Conference Board and University of Michigan, but Rasmussen is the only consumer confidence measure updated daily. The firm also releases a monthly Rasmussen Employment Index, a U.S. Consumer Spending Index and Small Business Watch, sponsored by Discover and a Financial Security Index, sponsored by Country Financial Insurance.

Use

Polls by Rasmussen Reports are cited regularly by multiple major news sources, and Rasmussen has appeared as a guest analyst on a number of news broadcasts, including the Fox News Channel, the BBC, CNN, NPR, and CNBC and local television affiliates.

Rasmussen Reports surveys have been referred to by media personalities and politicians. According to The New York Times Magazine, the White House Political Director reported on Rasmussen’s results directly to President Obama's chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.[49] The Washington Post reported that Rasmussen’s polls “set off alarm bells inside the Oval Office, according to a senior administration official, who would not be quoted by name discussing private deliberations within the White House.”[51]

Evaluations of accuracy and performance

Favorable

Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen wrote that Rasmussen has an “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.”[39]The Wall Street Journal stated that "Mr. Rasmussen is today's leading insurgent pollster" and "a key player in the contact sport of politics."[31] Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal reported that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections.[38][52][failed verification] In 2004 Slate magazine "publicly doubted and privately derided" Rasmussen's use of recorded voices in electoral polls. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were among the most accurate in the 2004 presidential election.[38] According to Politico, Rasmussen's 2008 presidential-election polls "closely mirrored the election's outcome".[53]

At the end of the 2008 presidential election, there were eight national tracking polls and many other polls conducted on a regular basis. Polling analyst Nate Silver reviewed the tracking polls and said that while none were perfect, and Rasmussen was "frequently reputed to have a Republican lean", the "house effect" in their tracking poll was small and "with its large sample size and high pollster rating [it] would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."[54]

In the January 2010 special election for the Senate seat from Massachusetts, Rasmussen Reports was the first to show that Republican Scott Brown had a chance to defeat Martha Coakley. Just after Brown's upset win, Ben Smith at Politico reported, “The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties until a Rasmussen poll showed the race in single digits in early January was that Martha Coakley was a lock. (It's hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.)"[55] A few days later, Public Policy Polling released the first poll showing Brown in the lead, a result differing from Rasmussen's by 10 points.[56] Rasmussen's last poll on the race found Coakley with a 2-point lead, when she in fact lost by 5 points, a 7-point error.[57]

A quote from Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia posted on the Rasmussen homepage reads, "Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today."[58]

Journalist Mickey Kaus said, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious New York Times, go with Rasmussen."[9][59]

Criticism

Nate Silver

In 2010, Nate Silver of the New York Times blog FiveThirtyEight wrote the article “Is Rasmussen Reports biased?”, in which he mostly defended Rasmussen from allegations of bias.[60] However, by later in the year, Rasmussen's polling results diverged notably from other mainstream pollsters, which Silver labeled a "house effect".[61] He went on to explore other factors which may have explained the effect such as the use of a likely voter model,[62] and claimed that Rasmussen conducted its polls in a way that excluded the majority of the population from answering.[63] Silver also criticized Rasmussen for often only polling races months before the election, which prevented them from having polls just before the election that could be assessed for accuracy. He wrote that he was “looking at appropriate ways to punish pollsters” like Rasmussen in his pollster rating models who don’t poll in the final days before an election.[64] In June 2012, Silver wrote that "Rasmussen Reports, which has had Republican-leaning results in the past, does so again this year. However, the tendency is not very strong – a Republican lean of about 1.3 points." Silver ranked Rasmussen Reports as having the third lowest house effect of the 12 polling firms that Silver analyzed.[65]

After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.[50] He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate race, in which Rasmussen, in a poll completed three weeks before the election, showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin[66] – a difference of 40 points from Rasmussen's poll, or "the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998".[50] Silver was criticized for his 2010 pollster ratings. Conservative polling analyst Neil Stevens wrote, "after the primaries [Silver] said Rasmussen was in his crosshairs for ducking out on a number of races by not polling primaries. According to Silver’s own chart though, Rasmussen polled twice as often as the second place firm, and is still Silver’s primary target", and "Silver can’t even keep consistent his reasons for hating Rasmussen Reports."[67] Mark Blumenthal, publisher of Pollster.com, wrote that Silver's methodology, in which he awards bonus points to pollsters based on their membership in the National Council on Public Polls and their endorsement of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative, "appear[s] to significantly and dramatically alter rankings prominently promoted as "pollster ratings," ratings that are already having an impact on the reputations and livelihoods of individual pollsters. That's a problem." Blumenthal noted, "My bottom line: These sort of pollster ratings and rankings are interesting, but they are of very limited utility in sorting out "good" pollsters from "bad." [68]

Other

TIME has described Rasmussen Reports as a "conservative-leaning polling group".[69] According to Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political scientist who co-developed Pollster.com,[70] “He [Rasmussen] polls less favorably for Democrats, and that’s why he’s become a lightning rod." Franklin also said: "It’s clear that his results are typically more Republican than the other person’s results.”[53]

The Center For Public Integrity listed "Scott Rasmussen Inc" as a paid consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign.[71] The Washington Post reported that the 2004 Bush reelection campaign had used a feature on the Rasmussen Reports website that allowed customers to program their own polls, and that Rasmussen asserted that he had not written any of the questions nor assisted Republicans.[51]

Rasmussen has received criticism over the wording in its polls.[72][73] Asking a polling question with different wording can affect the results of the poll;[74] the commentators in question allege that the questions Rasmussen ask in polls are skewed in order to favor a specific response. For instance, when Rasmussen polled whether Republican voters thought Rush Limbaugh was the leader of their party, the specific question they asked was: "Agree or Disagree: 'Rush Limbaugh is the leader of the Republican Party -- he says jump and they say how high.'"[73]

Talking Points Memo has questioned the methodology of Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index.[41]

In March 2012, Media Matters for America criticized Rasmussen Reports for portraying itself as politically independent while headlining two Republican fundraising events.[75]

References

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  34. ^ David Weigel: Rasmussen, the Only Poll that Matters The Washington Independent, 18 February 2009
  35. ^ "U.S. Congress: You're Fired! 68% of the Country Is Right!". Huffington Post. 2012-07-05. Retrieved 2012-07-11.
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  75. ^ Hananoki, Eric (March 30, 2012). ""Independent Pollster" Scott Rasmussen Headlines Republican Fundraisers". Media Matters for America.
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