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Tigray War

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Tigray conflict
Part of conflicts in the Horn of Africa

Location of Tigray Region in Ethiopia
(For a more detailed map, see here.)
Date4 November 2020 – ongoing
(3 years, 9 months, 1 week and 1 day)
Location
Tigray Region, Ethiopia
Spillovers in Amhara Region, Ethiopia and Central Region, Eritrea
Status Ongoing; Ethiopian government claims victory[1]
Belligerents
 Ethiopia

 Eritrea (alleged)		 Tigray Region
Commanders and leaders

Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed
(Prime Minister of Ethiopia)
Ethiopia Birhanu Jula
(ENDF Chief of Staff)
Ethiopia Kenea Yadeta
(Minister of Defence)
Tiruneh Temesgen
(Chief Administrator of Amhara Region, early November 2020)
Agegnehu Teshager
(Chief Administrator of Amhara Region, as of late November 2020)
Mulu Nega
(Federally appointed Chief Administrator of the Tigray Region)
Alleged:

Eritrea Isayas Afeworki
(President of Eritrea)
Eritrea Filipos Woldeyohannes
(Chief of the Defence Staff)
 Debretsion Gebremichael
  • President of Tigray Region
  • Chairman of TPLF

Units involved
Ethiopia Ethiopian National Defense Force

Ethiopia Ethiopian Federal Police

Amhara Region Police Force


Alleged or on Standby:

Eritrea Eritrean Defence Forces
  • Tigray Region Special Force
  • Tigray Region Police Force
  • Tigray Region Militias
[3][4][5][6]
Casualties and losses
550 killed (government claim)[7]
611 civilians killed[8][9][10][11]

The Tigray conflict is an ongoing armed conflict that began in November 2020 in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia, between Tigray Region special forces led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) in alliance with Amhara Region special forces.[12]

The conflict stemmed from the attempt of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to distance the country's politics from ethnic federalism, a power-sharing system giving regional influence to individual ethnic groups, by merging the ethnic and region-based parties of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, which had governed Ethiopia for 30 years, into a nationwide Prosperity Party.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front, a military and politically powerful entity inside Ethiopia representing 6% of the total population ethnically, refused to join the new party, and alleged that Abiy Ahmed became an illegitimate ruler by rescheduling the general elections set for 29 August 2020 to an undetermined date in 2021 due to COVID-19.

The TPLF went ahead with regional elections in Tigray in September 2020 in defiance of the federal government, which declared the Tigray election illegal.[13]

The situation escalated to violence on the 4th of November with an alleged attack by the Tigray People's Liberation Front on the Northern Command Headquarters of the Ethiopian National Defense Force. Rocket attacks have spilled over into the neighbouring Amhara Region and country of Eritrea.

Background

Historical/political

Following the end of the Ethiopian Civil War in 1991, Ethiopia became a dominant-party state under the rule of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnicity-based parties whose founding, and most influential, member was the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), whose chairperson was Meles Zenawi, FDRE Prime Minister until his death in 2012. Hailemariam Dessalegn, an ethnic Wolayta from the Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM), became premier.[14][15]

The TPLF used to be part of the Ethiopian governing coalition until its 2019 refusal to merge into the Prosperity Party.[16] Tensions between the government and the TPLF escalated in the months before the Tigray military intervention.[16] Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who is of Oromo-Amhara descent, accused the TPLF Party Members in the Tigray Regional Government of undermining his authority.[16] By contrast, the Tigray authorities saw the refusal to recognise the September 2020 election for the Tigray parliament (which, along with all elections in Ethiopia, had been delayed by the federal government and elections board until the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia) as the reason for the outbreak of the conflict.[16] Abiy Ahmed's government considered the September Tigray election to be illegal.[17] The warming of relations between Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, who is poorly regarded in Tigray, was also considered to have fuelled the tension.[16]

The day prior to the TPLF's alleged attack on a military camp, the federal parliament of Ethiopia had suggested designating the TPLF as a terrorist organization.[16] As tension continued to grow, a general appointed by Ahmed was prevented by the Tigrayan government from taking on his military post.

Constitutional context

The 1995 Constitution of Ethiopia states in Article 39, 1, "Every Nation, Nationality and People in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession."[18]

Article 62, 9 grants HoF the right to "order Federal [government] intervention if any State [government], in violation of [the] Constitution, endangers the constitutional order."[18]

In late September 2020, the TPLF stated that the constitutional term limit of the HoF, the House of Peoples' Representatives (HoPR), the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers was 5 October 2020, and that for this reason, it would consider "the incumbent" constitutionally illegitimate after 5 October. TPLF proposed replacing the government by a technocratic caretaker government as detailed in a plan posted on Facebook by the Coalition of Ethiopian Federalist Forces.[19]

Course of the conflict

Main article: Timeline of the Tigray conflict

On 4 November 2020, Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) soldiers came into conflict during Tigrayan attacks on an Ethiopian base in Mekelle and the Fifth Battalion barracks in Dansha.[20][21] In retaliation, an Ethiopian offensive was launched which was accompanied by a declaration of a state of emergency and a shutdown of government services in the region.[22][23] During the subsequent days, skirmishes continued and the Ethiopian parliament established an interim government for Tigray.[24] Ethiopian offensives in the north were accompanied with airstrikes and several towns and cities were retaken.[25] On 14 November 2020, Tigrayan forces launched rockets at the Eritrean capital of Asmara with the intent to drag other countries into the conflict, but the missiles missed.[26] By 18 November, the prime minister of Ethiopia claimed that they had captured the cities of Shire and Axum with battles going on around Mekelle with Ethiopian forces claiming to have taken some land south of the city.[27][28][29] On 23 November, the government issued an ultimatum giving the rebels 72 hours to surrender.[30] On 26 November, when the ultimatum ended, Abiy ordered federal military forces to launch an attack on Mekelle.[31][32] On 28 November, the Ethiopian government announced that it had taken control of the city, bringing the "the last phase of its law enforcement operation" to an end.[1]

Role of online social networks

Claire Wilmot, writing in The Washington Post, speculated that Internet restrictions imposed by the Abiy government during the Tigray conflict might be motivated by the wish to deescalate the conflict. She argued that much of the Twitter activity that she analysed was authentic English-language communication by Ethiopian diaspora, with the hashtag #StopTheWarOnTigray, and aiming to complement the "one-sided and highly dangerous image" that dominated views on the conflict.[33] Wilmot saw the Tigray conflict related Ethiopian online activity as mostly distinct from Ethiopian online hate speech, which in 2019 was mostly in Amharic on Facebook, but also suggested that the lines between authentic online political activity and deliberate misinformation[34] was becoming blurred. Wilmot suggested that the "information vacuum" in the conflict reduced the "ability to verify information".[33]

Reactions

National

  • The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) condemned the "decision of President Mustafe to portray Somalis in Ethiopia as supporters of the war against Tigray".[35]
  • On November 12, 2020, the TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael denied allegations that the TPLF had surrendered, stating that "we are still holding. These people cannot defeat us. We cannot be beaten."[36]
  • On November 27, Ethiopian Attorney General, Gedion Timothewos, pressed by the BBC's Stephen Sackur to clarify if his country was now "sinking into civil war", responded: "If the Prime Minister were to let the TPLF go on with the kind of things they have been doing, if he had let them acquire the heavy weaponry they wanted to acquire by attacking the Northern Command, yes, we would have descended into that kind of situation; but by taking the measures we are taking right now, we will be able to avert that possibility." [37]

International

  • The United Nations (UN) warned of the emergence of a major humanitarian crisis, should a full-scale conflict arise.[38]
  • The African Union (AU) appealed for cessation of hostilities and protection of civilians.[39]
  • Canadian Foreign Minister François-Philippe Champagne called on all parties to show restraint. Champagne also called for a peaceful solution and protection of civilians.[40]
  • Djiboutian President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh expressed strong support for Abiy, saying that he had chosen to "restore law and order at the federal level, and punish those seeking to break up the country" and dismissed the prospect of negotiations, saying that the TPLF had "structured itself so as to bring the central government to its knees" and that talks could "only lead to the partition of Ethiopia", as they would set a precedent under which other regional groups would be able to assert their own secessionist claims.[41]
  • British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said he had spoken with Abiy and urged "de-escalation of the Tigray conflict" and further stated that "civilians and humanitarian access must be protected".[42]
  • U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged de-escalation of the conflict and immediate action to restore peace, and emphasized the importance of protecting civilians.[43] U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's foreign policy adviser Antony Blinken expressed deep concern over the humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia, ethnic violence and threats to peace and security in the area. He called on the TPLF to protect civilians and take steps to end the conflict.[44]
  • Worldwide, humanitarian organisations and the scientific community asked rapidly for ceasefire and humanitarian aid to the people of Tigray.[45][46]
  • The European Commission said it was mobilizing an initial €4 million in emergency aid, in order to assist displaced Ethiopian refugees fleeing to Sudan.[47]
  • The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, urged the warring parties in the Ethiopia’s Tigray region conflict to give clear instructions to their forces to take all the precautions and protect civilians from the hostilities.[48]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: Army 'takes regional capital of Mekelle'". BBC News. 28 November 2020. Retrieved 28 November 2020. Mr Abiy said the army was in full control and that this "marks the completion of the [military's] last phase".
  2. ^ "Wieder Luftangriffe der Armee in Tigray". Deutsche Welle (in German). 9 November 2020. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 9 November 2020.
  3. ^ "Ethiopian troops 'liberate' key town in Tigray, claim officials". The Guardian. 17 November 2020. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 17 November 2020.
  4. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 18 November 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  5. ^ "Air strikes in Ethiopia's Tigray region will continue, PM says". CNN. Reuters. 7 November 2020. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 7 November 2020.
  6. ^ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-conflict/ethiopian-troops-push-for-regional-capital-rebels-promise-hell-idUSKBN27Y0SB
  7. ^ "Ethiopia: 550 rebels dead as Tigray offensive continues". Anadolu Agency. 11 November 2020. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 11 November 2020.
  8. ^ "Ethiopia: Investigation reveals evidence that scores of civilians were killed in massacre in Tigray state". Amnesty International. 12 November 2020. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
  9. ^ "Ethiopia commission says Tigray youth group killed 600 civilians in Nov 9 attack". Reuters. Nairobi. 24 November 2020. Retrieved 24 November 2020.
  10. ^ "Tigray rebels say nine civilians killed in Ethiopian attack". Reuters. 21 November 2020.
  11. ^ "Ethiopia crisis: Tigray leader vows to keep fighting as government advances". BBC.
  12. ^ Paravicini, Giulia; Endeshaw, Dawit (4 November 2020). "Ethiopia sends army into Tigray region, heavy fighting reported". Reuters. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 4 November 2020.
  13. ^ "Ethiopia appoints new Tigray leader, Amnesty reports 'massacre'". www.aljazeera.com.
  14. ^ "Ethiopia's Hailemariam Desalegn sworn in as prime minister". BBC News. 21 September 2012. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 11 November 2020.
  15. ^ Aalen, Lovise (17 February 2018). "Analysis | Why is Ethiopia in upheaval? This brief history explains a lot". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 11 November 2020.
  16. ^ a b c d e f "Tigray crisis: Ethiopia orders military response after army base seized". BBC News. 4 November 2020. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 4 November 2020.
  17. ^ "Ethiopia's Tigray region defies PM Abiy with 'illegal' election". france24.com. 9 August 2020. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 9 November 2020.
  18. ^ a b "Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia" (PDF). WIPO. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 November 2020. Retrieved 24 November 2020.
  19. ^ "News: Tigray region says it will defy federal laws enacted as of Oct. 05; EDP calls for transitional gov't, inclusive dialogue & reconciliation". Addis Standard. 29 September 2020. Archived from the original on 24 November 2020. Retrieved 24 November 2020.
  20. ^ "The Tigray crisis: Analysis from a variety of sources". Eritrea Hub. 5 November 2020. Retrieved 23 November 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  21. ^ "The midnight confrontation that helped unleash Ethiopia's conflict". France 24. 27 November 2020. Retrieved 28 November 2020.
  22. ^ "Ethiopia warns civilians of 'no mercy' in Tigray offensive". AP NEWS. 22 November 2020. Retrieved 23 November 2020.
  23. ^ "Ethiopia declares state of emergency in opposition-ruled Tigray". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 23 November 2020.
  24. ^ Addisstandard (7 November 2020). "News Alert: House of Federation adopts resolution to establish a transitional government in Tigray". Addis Standard. Retrieved 23 November 2020.
  25. ^ Feleke, Bethlehem; Rahim, Zamira. "Several injured in airstrikes on Tigray capital, humanitarian source says". CNN. Retrieved 23 November 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  26. ^ "Rockets fired from Ethiopia's Tigray hit Eritrean capital, diplomats say | DW | 15.11.2020". DW.COM. Retrieved 23 November 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  27. ^ "Ethiopia Tigray crisis: Abiy issues 'ultimatum' as civilians flee fighting". BBC News. 18 November 2020. Retrieved 23 November 2020.
  28. ^ "Ethiopian government says troops take two towns from Tigray fighters". Reuters. 21 November 2020. Retrieved 23 November 2020.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  29. ^ "Ethiopia: Shire Town of Tigray Captured". www.geeskaafrika.com. Retrieved 23 November 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  30. ^ Burke, Jason (22 November 2020). "Ethiopian prime minister gives Tigrayan rebels 72 hours to surrender". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 23 November 2020.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  31. ^ "Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: PM declares assault on regional capital Mekelle". BBC News. 26 November 2020. Retrieved 26 November 2020 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  32. ^ correspondent, Jason Burke Africa (26 November 2020). "Ethiopia's military to begin 'final offensive' against Tigray capital". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 26 November 2020.
  33. ^ a b Wilmot, Claire (17 November 2020). "Ethiopia's cracking down in Tigray. But activists are spreading the news". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 17 November 2020. Retrieved 26 November 2020.
  34. ^ Mwai, Peter (21 November 2020). "Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: Fact-checking misleading images". BBC News. Archived from the original on 26 November 2020. Retrieved 26 November 2020.
  35. ^ "War Against Tigray Divides Somalis In Ethiopia". The Taiwan Times. 7 November 2020. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 9 November 2020.
  36. ^ Marks, Simon; Gebre, Samuel (13 November 2020). "'We Can't Be Beaten,' Says Leader of Rebel Ethiopian Region". Bloomberg. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
  37. ^ BBC Hardtalk with Stephen Sackur interview with Gedion Timothewos: Is Ethiopia sliding into civil war? [1]
  38. ^ Anna, Cara (9 November 2020). "Ethiopia reshuffles top officials as Tigray conflict grows". ABC News. Associated Press. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 9 November 2020.
  39. ^ Fick, Maggie; Cawthorne, Andrew (10 November 2020). MacSwan, Angus; MClean, William (eds.). "African bloc urges ceasefire as Ethiopia claims airport in Tigray". Reuters. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 10 November 2020.
  40. ^ Champagne, François-Philippe [@FP_Champagne] (6 November 2020). "Canada is deeply concerned by the situation in the Tigray region of #Ethiopia. We call on all parties to show restraint, to work towards de-escalation of tensions and a peaceful resolution to the dispute. We urge all parties to ensure the safety and protection of civilians" (Tweet). Retrieved 10 November 2020 – via Twitter.
  41. ^ Soudan, François (24 November 2020). "'Abiy Ahmed had to punish those seeking to break up Ethiopia' – Djibouti President". The Africa Report. Retrieved 24 November 2020.
  42. ^ Anna, Cara; Magdy, Samy (10 November 2020). "Ethiopia's conflict spills over border as thousands flee". Washington Post. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 10 November 2020.
  43. ^ "US calls for end to conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray: Pompeo". Al Arabiya. AFP. 5 November 2020. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 10 November 2020.
  44. ^ "Biden team anxious over escalating war in U.S. ally Ethiopia". Reuters. 19 November 2020. Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 19 November 2020.
  45. ^ Ethiopia’s Tigray region has seen famine before: why it could happen again Archived 18 November 2020 at the Wayback Machine The Conversation, 17 November 2020
  46. ^ People go hungry in Ethiopia's Tigray as conflict marches on Archived 18 November 2020 at the Wayback Machine Associated Press, 18 November 2020
  47. ^ "Tigray conflict: EU humanitarian support to Ethiopian refugees reaching Sudan". Archived from the original on 19 November 2020. Retrieved 19 November 2020.
  48. ^ "Protect civilians uphold human rights, UN tells warring parties in Ethiopia". UN News. Retrieved 24 November 2020.
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