2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election
 | This article documents a current election. Information may change rapidly as the election progresses until official results have been published. Initial news reports may be unreliable, and the last updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. |
 | This article contains overly lengthy quotations. (June 2024) |
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Riding of Toronto—St. Paul's | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 43.52% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election was held in the federal riding of Toronto—St. Paul's in Ontario, Canada on June 24, 2024, following the resignation of incumbent Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett. The election was won by Conservative party candidate Don Stewart.
The race was considered by some as a "referendum" on the premiership of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.[1][2]
Background[edit]
The riding of Toronto—St. Paul's was vacated on January 16, 2024, following the resignation of Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett.[3][4] Bennett, most recently the Minister of Mental Health and Addictions and Associate Minister of Health in the government of Justin Trudeau, had held the seat since 1997.[5]
Constituency[edit]
Prior to the by-election, Toronto—St. Paul's was considered a safe Liberal[6] seat in Midtown, Toronto. It had been held by the Liberals since the 1993 federal election.[7]
Candidates[edit]
The Conservative Party nominated Don Stewart on January 24. He works for the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization.[8][9] Don Stewart has "a message of stopping the crime, important in a riding where auto thefts have skyrocketed...pushing hard on inflation, affordability and Trudeau’s waffling support of Israel."[10]
Running for the Liberal nomination was Leslie Church, former chief of staff to Chrystia Freeland.[11] She later received formal approval to run for Liberal nomination in Toronto—St. Paul’s in April 2024.[12] She ran against Emma Richardson, a senior advisor with Global Affairs Canada’s United Nations division.[13] The Liberal nomination was held on May 1 with Church winning the nomination.[14][15] In 2020 Church agreed to a ethics screen for being married to lobbyist "Sheamus Murphy..(who is) registered to lobby the Liberal government in relation to several major sectors with active policy files, including broadcasting, energy and pharmaceutical companies that are working on a COVID-19 vaccine."[16]
Other prospective candidates for the Liberal nomination who declined to run, included former Toronto city councillor Josh Colle; former Ontario MPP Eric Hoskins, who represented the area provincially from 2009 to 2018 and previously served in the provincial cabinets of Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne, including as Minister of Health and Long-Term Care from 2014 to 2018; and Toronto city councillor Josh Matlow, who has represented the area municipally since 2010; Matlow ultimately decided not to run.[11][17][18] With his riding set to merge with Scarborough Centre at the next election, Don Valley East MP Michael Coteau was seen as a potential candidate, in order to avoid a nomination battle with fellow Liberal MP Salma Zahid; Coteau ultimately declined to run.[17][19]
The Rhinoceros Party announced that Sean Carson would be the candidate on January 13.[20]
The NDP announced on April 17 that Amrit Parhar would be the candidate. She works as the Director of Programs at the Institute for Change Leaders, an organization that was founded by Toronto mayor, Olivia Chow.[21] It was previously reported two days earlier by The Hill Times that MPP for Toronto—St. Paul's, Jill Andrew was considering seeking the nomination.[22]
On May 17, the Centrist Party announced Ali Mohiuddin as their candidate.[23]
On May 24, the Green Party announced that Christian Cullis, a constituent coordinator for Ward 11 city councillor Dianne Saxe, would be their candidate.[24] Emma Richardson, who previously lost the Liberal nomination, also sought the Green Party nomination.[25]
On May 28, the People's Party announced that Dennis Wilson would be their candidate.[26]
The Longest Ballot Committee, a political movement focused on electoral reform in opposition to first-past-the-post-voting, and supporting proportional representation[27], targeted this by-election.[28] This yielded a record 84 candidates, breaking the previous record of 48 set in the Winnipeg South Centre by-election of June 19, 2023.[29] The resulting ballot papers were nearly a meter long, requiring temporary changes to the Elections Act due to their unprecedented size.[30]
Results[edit]
| Canadian federal by-election, June 24, 2024: Toronto—St. Paul's Resignation of Carolyn Bennett | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** Preliminary results — Not yet official ** | ||||||||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | ||||
| Conservative | Don Stewart | 15,555 | 42.08 | +16.78 | ||||
| Liberal | Leslie Church | 14,965 | 40.49 | -8.73 | ||||
| New Democratic | Amrit Parhar | 4,044 | 10.94 | -5.89 | ||||
| Green | Christian Cullis | 1,059 | 2.87 | -3.12 | ||||
| People's | Dennis Wilson | 234 | 0.63 | -2.03 | ||||
| Independent | Jonathan Schachter | 97 | 0.26 | |||||
| Independent | Mário Stocco | 82 | 0.22 | |||||
| Marxist–Leninist | Meñico Turcotte | 57 | 0.15 | |||||
| Rhinoceros | Sean Carson | 51 | 0.14 | |||||
| Independent | Thibaud Mony | 49 | 0.13 | |||||
| No Affiliation | Stephen Davis | 45 | 0.12 | |||||
| Independent | Glen MacDonald | 42 | 0.11 | |||||
| Independent | Mélodie Anderson | 40 | 0.11 | |||||
| Independent | Demetrios Karavas | 38 | 0.10 | |||||
| Independent | Jordan Wong | 31 | 0.08 | |||||
| Marijuana | Danny Légaré | 29 | 0.08 | |||||
| Independent | Alex Banks | 28 | 0.08 | |||||
| Centrist | Ali Mohiuddin | 27 | 0.07 | |||||
| Independent | Jaël Champagne Gareau | 23 | 0.06 | |||||
| Independent | John Dale | 18 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Joshua Bram Hieu Pham | 18 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Michael Bednarski | 17 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Pierre Larochelle | 17 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Marie-Hélène LeBel | 17 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Guillaume Paradis | 17 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Charles Currie | 13 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Daniel Andrew Graham | 13 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Julie St-Amand | 13 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Loren Hicks | 12 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Pierre Granger | 11 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Blake Hamilton | 11 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Matéo Martin | 11 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Erle Stanley Bowman | 10 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Cory Deville | 10 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Alexandra Engering | 10 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Daniel Stuckless | 10 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Line Bélanger | 9 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Mark Dejewski | 9 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Anthony Hamel | 9 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Agnieszka Marszalek | 9 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Pascal St-Amand | 9 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | MarthaLee Aykroyd | 8 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Sébastien CoRhino | 8 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Daniel Gagnon | 8 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Olivier Renaud | 8 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Patrick Strzalkowski | 8 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Donald Gagnon | 7 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Kevin Krisa | 7 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Benjamin Teichman | 7 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Myriam Beaulieu | 6 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Kubera Desai | 6 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Donovan Eckstrom | 6 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Lorant Polya | 6 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Roger Sherwood | 6 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Elliot Wand | 6 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Michal Wieczorek | 6 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Maxime Boivin | 5 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville | 5 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Léthycia-Félix Corriveau | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Ysack Dupont | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Dji-Pé Frazer | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Zornitsa Halacheva | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Krzysztof Krzywinski | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Alain Lamontagne | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Renée Lemieux | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Danimal Preston | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Spencer Rocchi | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Yogo Shimada | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Darcy Vanderwater | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Mylène Bonneau | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Jean-Denis Parent Boudreault | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Alain Bourgault | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Guillaume Gagnier-Michel | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Kerri Hildebrandt | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Connie Lukawski | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Wallace Richard Rowat | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Gavin Vanderwater | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| No Affiliation | Manon Marie Lili Desbiens | 2 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Gerrit Dogger | 2 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Samuel Ducharme | 2 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Yusuf Kadir Nasihi | 2 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Winston Neutel | 2 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Jacques Saintonge | 2 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Felix-Antoine Hamel | 0 | 0.00 | |||||
| Total valid votes | 36,962 | |||||||
| Total rejected ballots | ||||||||
| Turnout | 43.52 | -21.96 | ||||||
| Eligible voters | 84,934 | |||||||
| Conservative gain from Liberal | Swing | +12.76 | ||||||
2021 result[edit]
| 2021 Canadian federal election: Toronto—St. Paul's | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| Liberal | Carolyn Bennett | 26,429 | 49.22 | -5.09 | $88,807.52 | |||
| Conservative | Stephanie Osadchuk | 13,587 | 25.30 | +3.69 | $26,751.24 | |||
| New Democratic | Sidney Coles[31] | 9,036 | 16.83 | +1.05 | $31,250.09 | |||
| Green | Phil De Luna | 3,214 | 5.99 | -0.77 | $30,817.63 | |||
| People's | Peter Remedios | 1,432 | 2.67 | +1.12 | $1,412.77 | |||
| Total valid votes/Expense limit | 53,698 | 98.93 | – | $112,245.61 | ||||
| Total rejected ballots | 580 | 1.07 | +0.43 | |||||
| Turnout | 54,278 | 65.48 | -4.91 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 82,891 | |||||||
| Liberal hold | Swing | -4.39 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada[32] | ||||||||
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ^ Tasker, John Paul (June 20, 2024). "Toronto voters say federal byelection is a referendum on Justin Trudeau's future". CBC. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
- ^ MacCharles, Tonda (June 15, 2024). "This isn't just another byelection in Toronto — it might reveal the future for Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre. Here's what's at stake". Toronto Star. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
- ^ Rabson, Mia (December 12, 2023). "Carolyn Bennett stepping down as Liberal MP for Toronto-St. Paul's after 26 years". The Canadian Press. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
- ^ "The Hon. Carolyn Bennett, P.C., M.P." Library of Parliament. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
- ^ "Liberal minister Carolyn Bennett announces she will not stand for re-election". CTV News. Ottawa. The Canadian Press. July 24, 2023. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
- ^ "Federal byelection announced for June 24 in Toronto St. Paul's riding". CTV News. The Canadian Press. May 19, 2024.
- ^ Lamba, Abhiraj (May 22, 2024). "Trudeau announces date for Toronto—St. Paul's byelection". Toronto Star.
- ^ Conservative Party of Canada [@CPC_HQ] (February 15, 2024). "Welcome your Toronto—St. Paul's candidate" (Tweet). Retrieved April 18, 2024 – via Twitter.
- ^ "Nomination Contest Database". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 17, 2024.
- ^ Lilley, Brian (June 21, 2024). "LILLEY: Liberals nervous about Conservative momentum ahead of byelection". Toronto Sun.
- ^ a b Rana, Abbas; Jeffery, Stephen (December 18, 2023). "Toronto-St. Paul's byelection could be 'first test' of Jewish voters' reaction to Canada's UN vote on Israel-Hamas war, say political insiders". The Hill Times. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
- ^ Vigliotti, Marco (April 22, 2024). "Leslie Church receives formal approval to run for Liberal nomination in Toronto-St. Paul's: sources". iPolitics. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
- ^ Vigliotti, Marco (April 25, 2024). "Leslie Church expected to easily win Liberal nomination in Toronto-St. Paul's on Tuesday: sources". iPolitics. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
- ^ Duguid, Terry; Martinez Ferrada, Soraya. "Liberal Nomination Meeting – Toronto—St. Paul's". Liberal Party of Canada. Archived from the original on April 25, 2024. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
- ^ "Liberal Party of Canada announces Leslie Church as Team Trudeau candidate for Toronto–St. Paul's" (Press release). Toronto, ON: Liberal Party of Canada. May 1, 2024. Archived from the original on May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
- ^ Curry, Bill (November 10, 2020). "Chrystia Freeland's policy adviser agrees to ethics screen related to lobbyist spouse". The Globe and Mail.
- ^ a b Vigliotti, Marco (January 25, 2024). "Liberals still considering candidates for Toronto-St. Paul's byelection". iPolitics. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
- ^ Matlow, Josh [@JoshMatlow] (February 23, 2024). "After a lot of consideration, I've decided not to run for parliament at this point in my life. I'm excited about this new chapter at city hall, and my focus remains on our city. My family is rooted in Toronto and my daughter will only have one childhood, which I'm not prepared…"" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Vigliotti, Marco (January 19, 2024). "Coteau won't run in Toronto-St. Paul's byelection". iPolitics. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
- ^ Parti Rhinocéros Party (January 13, 2024). "Candidate announcement for by-elections in Durham and Toronto St. Paul !!!". Facebook. Retrieved January 22, 2024.
- ^ Toronto-St. Paul's NDP [@stpaulsndp] (April 17, 2024). "We are so proud to announce Amrit Parhar as our nomination candidate for the upcoming by-election in TSP!" (Tweet). Retrieved April 17, 2024 – via Twitter.
- ^ Rana, Abbas (April 15, 2024). "Poor polling numbers, NDP MPP's rumoured candidacy, and Mideast conflict turns Toronto-St. Paul's, Ont., byelection into tight three-way race, say Liberal MPs". The Hill Times. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
- ^ Centrist Party of Canada [@CentristCa] (May 17, 2024). "Ali Mohiuddin is the nomination candidate of the #Centrist Party for Toronto St. Paul's riding By-election" (Tweet). Archived from the original on May 17, 2024. Retrieved May 17, 2024 – via Twitter.
- ^ "Christian Cullis to run in Toronto-St Paul's" (Press release). Green Party of Canada. May 24, 2024. Retrieved May 25, 2024.
- ^ "Emma Richardson for Toronto—St. Paul's". Archived from the original on May 15, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
- ^ Bernier, Maxime [@MaximeBernier] (May 28, 2024). "If you live in Toronto, support our PPC candidate Dennis Wilson!" (Tweet). Retrieved May 28, 2024 – via Twitter.
- ^ Tasker, John Paul (June 25, 2024). "Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result". CBC News. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
- ^ Passifiume, Bryan (December 27, 2023). "Long ballot activists planning to make short work of Toronto byelection". National Post.
- ^ "List of candidates: Toronto--St. Paul's (Ontario) By-Election (Monday, June 24, 2024)". Elections Canada. June 3, 2024.
- ^ Major, Darren (June 14, 2024). "Record 84 candidates on a near metre-long ballot in upcoming byelection". Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
- ^ "Toronto NDP candidate resigns after discovery of controversial social media posts". CP24. September 15, 2021.
- ^ "Official Voting Results". Elections Canada. Retrieved June 21, 2024.