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2026 Atlantic hurricane season

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2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJune 17, 2026
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameBertha
  Maximum winds60 mph (95 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
  Lowest pressure995 mbar (hPa; 29.38 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions3
Total storms3
Hurricanes0
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)
0
ACE3.1
Total fatalities4 total
Total damage> $1.01 billion (2026 USD)
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is the current Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, 2026, and will end on November 30, 2026. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean (over 97%). The first system, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed on June 17 and impacted much of the Gulf of Mexico. A little over a month later, Tropical Storm Bertha formed on the opposite side of the gulf, impacting the United States Gulf Coast.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2026 season
Source Date Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Ref
Average (1991–2020)14.47.23.2[1]
Record high activity 30 15 7 [2]
Record low activity 1 0 0 [2]

TSR December 11, 2025 14 7 3 [3]
UA April 7, 2026 20 9 4 [4]
CSU April 9, 2026 13 6 2 [5]
TSR April 9, 2026 12 5 1 [6]
TWC April 16, 2026 12 6 2 [7]
UPenn April 21, 2026 7–13 N/A N/A [8]
NCSU April 22, 2026 12–15 6–9 2–3 [9]
SMN April 22, 2026 11–15 4–7 1–2 [10]
INSMET May 5, 2026 11 5 2 [11]
NOAA May 21, 2026 8–14 3–6 1–3 [12]
UKMO* May 28, 2026 9 5 2 [13]
CSU June 10, 2026 11 5 2 [14]
UA June 14, 2026 13 5 3 [15]
CSU July 8, 2026 9 4 1 [16]
NOAA August 6, 2026 7-13 2-6 0-2 [17]
Actual activity 3 0 0
* June–November only
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the amount of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular season.

According to NOAA and CSU, the average hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher), as well as a median accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 71.04–123.14 units.[1] Broadly speaking, ACE is the measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical cyclone multiplied by the length of time it existed. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical or subtropical cyclones reaching wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h) or higher. NOAA typically describes a season as above-average, average, or below-average depending on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes can also be considered.

Pre-season forecasts

On December 11, 2025, TSR released their first forecast for the season, expecting a near-normal season, with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes,[nb 1] and an ACE index of 125 units, close to the thirty-year average. They noted historically low certainty in this forecast, with the main factors being potentially moderate El Niño conditions arising in mid- to late-summer 2026, along with a reasonable certainty of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the season.[3]

On April 7, 2026, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for an active season featuring 20 named storms, nine hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 155 units.[4] Noted in their forecast were similarities to the 2023 season, namely the possibility of exceptionally strong El Niño conditions for the season, along with the 2026 SST outlook being only slightly lower than that of 2023.[4] Two days later, CSU and TSR published their April forecasts, both calling for a slightly below-normal season. CSU forecasted 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes with an ACE index of 90 units, while TSR forecasted 12 named storms, five hurricanes, and one major hurricane with an ACE index of 66 units. This is due to the likelihood of robust El Niño conditions during the season, which will likely induce above-normal wind shear across the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, despite some predictions calling for slightly above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.[5][6] On April 16, The Weather Channel (TWC) issued their forecast, also calling for a below-average season with 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes due to the predicted El Niño.[7] On April 21, University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of 7–13 systems with a best estimate of 10 systems.[8] On April 22, North Carolina State University (NCSU) released their seasonal forecast, calling for an average season of 12–15 named storms, 6–9 hurricanes, and 2–3 major hurricanes while also forecasting near-average activity in the Gulf of Mexico and below-average activity in the Caribbean Sea.[9] Also on April 22, Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) issued their forecast for the season, predicting it to be below-to-near-average, with 11–15 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 1–2 major hurricanes.[10]

On May 5, the Instituto de Meteorología de Cuba (INSMET) issued a forecast calling for 11 tropical cyclones, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes with one tropical cyclone occurring in the Gulf of Mexico, two in the Caribbean, and eight in the Atlantic.[11] On May 21, forecasters at NOAA's National Weather Service predicted a below-normal hurricane season with 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes, factoring in expected development of an El Niño event, which would reduce the number of tropical systems, along with slightly above-normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures and weaker-than-average trade winds, which would favor development.[12] On May 28, the Met Office released their prediction of nine named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (with ranges of 6–12, 3–7, and 1–3, respectively) as well as an ACE index of 72 units.[13]

Mid-season forecasts

On June 10, CSU reduced its predicted forecast to 11 named storms, five hurricanes and only two major hurricanes with a total ACE of 70, citing the high chance of a moderate-to-strong El Niño developing by September, as well as cooler sea surface temperatures anomalies observed during the month of May.[14] On June 14, UA reduced its predicted hurricane activities in each category compared to its April prediction, with 13 named storms, five hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and a total ACE of 106, primarily because the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures had not increased as much as expected from March to May.[15] By early July, Colorado State University further reduced its prediction to nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane, with anticipation for the ongoing moderate El Niño to intensify into a very strong El Niño by the climatological peak of hurricane season, resulting in very strong vertical wind shear across the Atlantic Basin. Additionally, the university forecast well below-average chances for a direct hurricane strike on the Continental United States and the Caribbean.[16]

On August 6, NOAA further reduced their forecast amid a lull in activity approaching the typical peak of the season. Numbers were reduced slightly to seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes, and zero to two major hurricanes, and less than a 5% chance of an above average season.[17]

Seasonal summary

Tropical Storm Bertha (2026)Tropical Storm Arthur (2026)Saffir–Simpson scale

This season's ACE index, as of July 24, is approximately 3.1 units, as officially calculated by the NHC.[19] This number represents the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000.

Tropical Storm Cristobal (bottom left) as it coincides with the August 12 solar eclipse

On June 17, Tropical Storm Arthur formed off the Texan coast, bringing flooding to the Gulf Coast of the United States and Mexico.[20] An extended hiatus occurred after Arthur's dissipation, caused by the ongoing El Niño phase enhancing wind shear across the Atlantic along with Saharan dust.[21] Wind shear in the Caribbean Sea during the month of the July was the highest since records began in 1979.[22] A month after Arthur dissipated, Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.[23] Quiet conditions resumed until August 12, when Tropical Storm Cristobal formed well east-northeast of Bermuda.[24]

Systems

Tropical Storm Arthur

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 17 – June 18
Peak intensity45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min);
999 mbar (hPa)

On June 10, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring the Bay of Campeche for the development of a low-pressure area,[25] partially associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristina from the Eastern Pacific basin.[26] On June 14, the low-pressure area moved inland over eastern Mexico.[27] Conditions in the area were assessed as marginally favorable for development and, on June 16, the NHC started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One at 15:00 UTC.[28] The following day at 15:00 UTC, the system acquired gale-force winds, as well as sustainable, albeit lopsided convection, and was named Tropical Storm Arthur by the NHC as it moved offshore from the Texas coast.[29] A poorly-organized system, Arthur reached peak intensity with 1-minute sustained winds of 40 kt (45 mph) as it underwent a center relocation, making landfall near Galveston, Texas as a minimal tropical storm before degenerating into a remnant low.[30]

As of July 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. estimated losses to be greater than US$1 billion.[31] Four fatalities have been attributed to Arthur.[32][33][34][35] Across Northern Mexico, significant rains fell, inundating roads.[36] River flooding occurred in Piedras Negras.[32] In the United States, flash floods occurred in Texas.[37] Some parts of Louisiana received almost 30 inches (800 mm) of rain.[38] The return period for the rains is estimated to be 1-in-1,000 years.[31] Dozens of tornadoes formed across the Gulf Coast in relation to Arthur.[39]

Tropical Storm Bertha

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 19 – July 24
Peak intensity60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min);
995 mbar (hPa)

An upper-level low and a surface trough formed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on July 17.[40] The following day, a broad low began to develop.[41] The low then became Tropical Depression Two at 15:00 UTC on July 19 after developing a well-defined, low-level circulation.[23] The system further organized over the next day, and the system was named Bertha with tropical-storm-force winds.[42][43] Early on July 21, it attained winds of 60 miles per hour (97 km/h) and a pressure of 995 millibars (29.4 inHg).[44] The storm then weakened,[45] making landfall with winds of 45 miles per hour (72 km/h) close to the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana on July 22.[46] On July 23, the center emerged offshore of southern Louisiana.[47] It remained very close to the coastline and moved back inland near the Texas-Louisiana border the same day.[48][49] It weakened to a tropical depression on July 24,[50] soon degenerating to a trough over eastern Texas after losing a well-defined circulation.[51]

Due to Bertha's shape, heavy rains were uncommon on the mainland from the storm.[52] Instead, the system caused a significant amount of flooding through storm surge along with creating high surf across the Gulf Coast of the United States.[53] In Florida, dozens of turtle nests were washed out or destroyed to Bertha.[54] Some roadways were inundated in Louisiana.[53][55] Per Aon, Bertha caused economic losses in the tens of millions of dollars.[56]

Tropical Storm Cristobal

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 12 – present
Peak intensity45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min);
1008 mbar (hPa)

On August 9, the NHC identified a trough of low pressure located well-offshore of the United States and west-northwest of Bermuda as having a low chance of development into a tropical cyclone.[57] Over the next few days, the system gradually organized,[58] eventually becoming sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical storm, receiving the name Cristobal on August 12.[24] The environment was harsh on Cristobal, with wind shear, low sea surface temperatures, and dry air, causing it to weaken back to a tropical depression by August 13.[59][60]

Storm names

The following list of names will be used for storms that form in the Atlantic basin during 2026. This was the same list used in the 2020 season with the exception of Leah, which replaced Laura.[61]

  • Arthur
  • Bertha
  • Cristobal (active)
  • Dolly (unused)
  • Edouard (unused)
  • Fay (unused)
  • Gonzalo (unused)
  • Hanna (unused)
  • Isaias (unused)
  • Josephine (unused)
  • Kyle (unused)
  • Leah (unused)
  • Marco (unused)
  • Nana (unused)
  • Omar (unused)
  • Paulette (unused)
  • Rene (unused)
  • Sally (unused)
  • Teddy (unused)
  • Vicky (unused)
  • Wilfred (unused)

Season effects

The following is a table which will include all of the storms that form in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. It will include their duration, names, intensities, areas affected, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures will be in 2026 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2026 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name
Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity
Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(US$)
Deaths Ref(s).
Arthur June 17–18 Tropical storm 45 (75) 999 Veracruz, Northern Mexico, Gulf Coast of the United States >$1 billion 4 [62]
Bertha July 19–24 Tropical storm 60 (95) 995 Gulf Coast of the United States >$10 million None
Cristobal August 12–present Tropical storm 45 (75) 1008 None None None
Season aggregates
3 systems June 17 – Season ongoing  60 (95) 996 >$1.01 billion 4  

See also

Notes

  1. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher—1-minute sustained winds higher than 110 miles per hour (178 km/h)—on the Saffir–Simpson scale are described as major hurricanes.[18]

References

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  4. 1 2 3 Davis, Kyle; Zeng, Xubin (April 7, 2026). "Forecast of the 2026 Hurricane Activities over the North Atlantic" (PDF). University of Arizona. Retrieved April 7, 2026.
  5. 1 2 Klotzbach, Philip; Bell, Michael; Silvers, Levi; Lee, Juhyun; Cólon Burgos, Delián; Mesa, Nicholas. "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2026" (PDF). Fort Collins CO: Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University. Retrieved April 9, 2026.
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  60. Katz, Jeremy (August 13, 2026). "Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 4". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Retrieved August 13, 2026.
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