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2023 Cross River State gubernatorial election

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2023 Cross River State gubernatorial election
← 2019 18 March 2023 2027 →
Registered1,766,466
 
Sen otu.jpg
PDP
Nominee Bassey Otu Sandy Ojang Onor
Party APC PDP
Running mate Peter Odey Emana Ambrose-Amawhe
Governor before election

Benedict Ayade
APC

Elected Governor

Bassey Otu
APC

The 2023 Cross River State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Cross River State, concurrent with elections to the Cross River State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent APC Governor Benedict Ayade is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating Senator for Cross River Central Sandy Ojang Onor on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated former Senator for Cross River South Bassey Otu on 26 May.[4][5]

Electoral system

The governor of Cross River State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Cross River State is a diverse state in the South South with growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector, deforestation, and rising debt in large part due to years of systemic corruption.

Politically, the state's 2019 elections were categorized as a continuation of the PDP's control as Ayade won with over 73% of the vote and the party won every seat in the House of Assembly along with all three senate seats. However, the PDP did lose one House of Representatives seat to the APC and although the state was easily won by PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar, it still swung towards Buhari compared to 2015 and had lower turnout. In the interim between 2019 and 2023, the state's political landscape drastically changed as Ayade defecting to the APC in May 2021 set in motion a wave of other defections that gave the APC control of the House of Assembly and half of the eight House of Representatives seats by mid-2022.

Ahead of his second term, Ayade stated focuses included the completion of in-progress projects and industrialization;[6] however, he was routinely criticized for authoritarian-esque actions. Alarms were raised after Ayade's defection when he withheld the salaries of state and local officeholders that refused to defect with him and forcibly converted the state PDP secretariat into the new APC headquarters but the allegations of dictatorial actions were at their peak around his ordered arrests and months-long imprisonments of a critic and a journalist.[7][8][9][10][11] At other points during his administration, Ayade was given praise for allocating large parts of the budget to capital expenditures while receiving further criticism for covering up COVID-19 cases, abandoning in-progress projects for new potential white elephants like the Calas Vegas resort project and the new Obudu Airport, creating several new ministries and appointing dozens of aides, getting an unapproved foreign loan in secret without evidence of use for the money, and continuing efforts to build a six-lane superhighway through the ecologically vital Cross River National Park.[12][13][14][15][16][17][18] [19][20]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][21] An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement set the Cross River South Senatorial District to have the next governor as Cross River South has not held the governorship since 2007. Neither major party closed their primaries to non-South candidates, as both the APC and PDP had heated internal debates over zoning to the Southern district.[22][23][24][25] While the APC ended up nominating someone from the South, the PDP chose someone from the Central district.

All Progressives Congress

Arguments over zoning divided the state APC ahead of the primary as Ayade publicly advocated for his successor to come from the South while prospective candidates from other regions like former Senator John Owan Enoh and former minister Usani Uguru Usani argued for the primary to be kept open.[26] In April 2022, state party chairman Alphonsus Eba stated that the primary would be kept open to candidates from all parts of the state, insisting that Ayade's view was simply his personal opinion.[27] However, in early May, Eba announced a party committee to narrow the number of candidates from 17 to four—as two candidates were to be from the South and two candidates were to be from the Central, the party nomination was effectively zoned to the Central and Southern districts.[28][29] Though, this arrangement was also scrapped amid internal turmoil that led the party to choose a single informal "consensus" candidate—former Senator Bassey Otu.[30][31] However, fellow candidates Chris Agara and John Owan Enoh rejected the arrangement and continued their campaigns while Usani left the party to run under the PRP.[32][33][34] The apparent final blow to the "consensus" arrangement was Otu's reported disqualification from contesting the primary as it was reported on 20 May that the APC screening panel barred Otu due to his questionable educational qualifications and a fraud conviction from 1987.[35][36] However, the panel announced that it had not disqualified Otu but preliminarily declared his case "inconclusive" due to the absence of certain credentials.[37] Then the consensus arrangement received another lifeline as Owan Enoh withdrew and endorsed Otu.

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[38] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[39] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[40][41][42][43]

As the consensus arrangement reformed, a number of other candidates dropped out in favor of Oti leading to the primary day, when an indirect primary ended in Otu emerging as the APC nominee after results showed him winning over 84% of the delegates' votes. In his acceptance speech, Otu thanked the party and his former opponents while pledging to continue the work of the Ayade administration.[5] However, controversy emerged afterwards when Owan Enoh surprisingly reversed position and filed an appeal petition against Otu in reference to the dispute over his educational qualifications.[44] Despite the ongoing lawsuit, Otu commenced a general election campaign which was dominated by the search for a running mate in the weeks after the primary, with party members desiring regional balance in the ticket.[45] To achieve this balance, Peter Odey—MHA for Ogoja—was chosen as the deputy gubernatorial nominee on 9 August at an unveiling rally in Ogoja.[46] A Federal High Court ruling dismissed Owan Enoh's lawsuit in late October 2022 with Justice Ijeoma Ojukwu finding that primary candidate qualification screening was the purview of political parties.[47] Initially Owan Enoh appealed the ruling but he announced its withdrawal in December due to personal overtures from APC presidential nominee Bola Tinubu.[48]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Bassey Otu (84.66%)
  John Owan Enoh (8.77%)
  Chris Agara (6.58%)
APC primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Bassey Otu 811 84.65%
APC John Owan Enoh (withdrawn) 84 8.77%
APC Chris Agara 63 6.58%
Total votes 958 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 1 N/A
Turnout 959 Unknown

People's Democratic Party

Ahead of the primary, rumours that former Governor Donald Duke was attempting to impose Arthur Jarvis Archibong as the party nominee led to protests from other candidates. When Duke held a meeting to find an informal "consensus" Southern candidate in early May 2022, Archibong emerged as the choice leading to further accusations of imposition as other candidates rejected the arrangement.[57][58]

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[59] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[60][61]

On the primary date, the election ended with Senator Sandy Ojang Onor emerging as the PDP nominee after results showed him winning by a margin of about 10%.[4][62] Runner-up Gershom Bassey accepted the results and congratulated Onor while noting that Southern candidates got a majority of votes cast. On 4 July, Onor announced Emana Ambrose-Amawhe—a former Channels TV presenter—as his running mate in a speech that pointed out that Ambrose-Amawhe would become Cross River's first women deputy governor in 30 years.[63][64]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Sandy Ojang Onor (41.33%)
  Gershom Bassey (30.65%)
  Daniel Effiong Asuquo (25.74%)
  Other candidates (2.28%)
PDP primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Sandy Ojang Onor 236 41.33%
PDP Gershom Bassey 175 30.65%
PDP Daniel Effiong Asuquo 147 25.74%
PDP Arthur Jarvis Archibong 6 1.05%
PDP Nkoyo Toyo 4 0.70%
PDP Other candidates 3 0.53%
Total votes 571 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 20 N/A
Turnout 591 Unknown

Minor parties

Campaign

As the general election campaign began in June 2022, pundits focused on the major candidates' attempts to reconcile aggrieved members of their own parties in the wake of the party primaries. While Otu's qualifications were disputed by his intraparty opponents, the catalyst for internal anti-Onor sentiment within the PDP was his disregard for the zoning principle by running.[79] At the commencement of the official campaign period in October, analysts again reiterated the significance of zoning as a campaign issue with the potential that an Onor victory could mean the end of the practice in the state's gubernatorial elections; observers also noted Ayade's support of Otu and Onor's strong oratory skills as further campaign factors.[80] However, the national PDP crisis between the G5 group and the party presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar impacted the Cross River PDP as well, splitting it between G5-aligned and Abubakar-aligned blocs. Onor and the state party chairman led the G5-aligned bloc while the Abubakar-aligned faction was helmed by former Governor Liyel Imoke; by January 2023, observers noted that Onor advertising did not jointly support Abubakar while Abubakar advertising did not mention Onor's gubernatorial candidacy.[81] The next month, focus switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Cross River State voted for Peter Obi (LP); Obi won the state with 43.2% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 31.3% and Atiku Abubakar (PDP) at 22.9%. In the wake of the presidential race, pundits focused on regional differences in the gubernatorial election in addition to the rise of minor candidates and Ayade's senatorial loss.[82][83][84]

Projections

Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[a][85] Lean Onor 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[b][86] 		Onor 2 March 2023

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[87] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[88]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[c] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[d] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election

Results

2023 Cross River State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
AA Effiom Effiom Ekeng
ADP Marikana Stanley Ibiang
APP Edet Effiom
ADC Effa Effiong Nyong
APC Bassey Otu
LP Ogar Obu
NRM Patrick Henry Solomon
PDP Sandy Ojang Onor
PRP Usani Uguru Usani
SDP Epet Okokon
YPP Joseph Coco-Bassey
Total votes 100.00%
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Bassey Otu
APC 		Sandy Ojang Onor
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Cross River Central Senatorial District[e] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Cross River North Senatorial District[f] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Cross River South Senatorial District[g] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Bassey Otu
APC 		Sandy Ojang Onor
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Abi/Yakurr Federal Constituency[h] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Akamkpa/Biase Federal Constituency[i] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Akpabuyo/Bakassi/Calabar South Federal Constituency[j] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Calabar Municipal/Odukpani Federal Constituency[k] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ikom/Boki Federal Constituency[l] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Obanliku/Obudu/Bekwarra Federal Constituency[m] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Obubra/Etung Federal Constituency[n] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ogoja/Yala Federal Constituency[o] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Bassey Otu
APC 		Sandy Ojang Onor
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Abi TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Akamkpa TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Akpabuyo TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Bekwarra TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Biase TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Boki TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Calabar Municipal TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Calabar South TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Etung TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ikom TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Obanliku TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Obubra TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Obudu TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Odukpani TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ogoja TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Yakurr TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Yala TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes

  1. ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  3. ^ The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[89]
  4. ^ The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[90]
  5. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Abi, Boki, Etung, Ikom, Obubra, and Yakurr.
  6. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bekwarra, Biase, Obanliku, Obudu, Ogoja, and Yala.
  7. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Akamkpa, Akpabuyo, Bakassi, Calabar Municipal, Calabar South, and Odukpani.
  8. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Abi and Yakurr.
  9. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Akamkpa and Biase.
  10. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Akpabuyo, Bakassi, and Calabar South.
  11. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Calabar Municipal and Odukpani.
  12. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Boki and Ikom.
  13. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bekwarra, Obanliku, and Obudu.
  14. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Etung and Obubra.
  15. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ogoja and Yala.

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