Blue shift (politics)

In American politics, blue shift is an observed phenomenon under which in-person votes trend towards the Republican Party (whose color is red), while mail-in votes, which are often counted later, trend towards the Democratic Party (whose color is blue). This means that election day results can indicate initially indicate a Republican victory, but mail-in ballots later demonstrate a Democratic victory. This can lead observers to call into question the election legitimacy, when in fact, the election results are legitimate. Blue shift occurs because young voters, low-income voters, and voters who move often, are likely to vote by mail and are likely to lean Democratic. This phenomenon remains poorly understood by the general public and election experts, and can cause confusion given that Americans are accustomed to knowing results on election day.

The phenomenon was first identified by Edward Foley of Ohio State University in 2013. He found that Democratic candidates are significantly more likely to gain votes during the "canvass" period, which is the votes counted after election night. This asymmetry did not always exist, as in the 20th century, as recently as the 1996 United States presidential election, Republicans and Democrats were both able to cut their opponents' lead during the canvass period. Foley conjectured that the 2002 passage of the Help America Vote Act accelerated the pronounced asymmetry of the blue shift phenomenon, because it required states to allow provisional ballots to be cast. He later found that the variation in the size of the blue shift is positively associated with the number of provisional ballots and the Democratic partisanship of the state in question. The growth in the persistent blue-shifted overtime vote began with the 2004 United States presidential election. However, Foley has stated that political scientists have not fully "pinned down causality" of this phenomenon.

2018 elections

One example is the 2018 California's 39th congressional district election. This was a hotly contested race for a seat in the United States House of Representatives, representing portions of Orange, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino Counties in Southern California. Republican Young Kim was running against Democrat Gil Cisneros. On election night, November 6, 2018, Kim held a lead of 3 percentage points and over 150,000 votes over Cisneros. However, as the votes were counted over the ensuing weeks, Cisneros overtook Kim in the vote count, and won the election.

Another notable example of blue shift was the 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona between Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. McSally led the vote count on election night, but Sinema ultimately won the election due to mail-in ballots. Democrats initially thought that they had lost that election, but ultimately won. In addition to these examples, blue shift has been documented in California, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Ohio, among other states.

2020 elections

Foley has expressed concern that this phenomenon, along with difficulties in conducting an election during a pandemic, could lead to "a perfect storm" in the 2020 United States presidential election. The blue shift could decide the election. This concern is particularly pronounced due to the fact that incumbent president Donald Trump has not stated whether he will accept election results.

In addition, the United States Postal Service has had cost-cutting policies put in place by its new director Louis DeJoy, who is a top donor and fundraiser to Donald Trump, and these cost-cutting policies may further slow delivery of postal ballots. Some have accused of Trump of "intentionally kneecapping the postal service in an attempt to sabotage the election." These concerns were echoed by former president Barack Obama, who described Trump's threats as "unheard of". For this reason, election experts have advocated that postal ballots be mailed weeks in advance of Election Day. As an alternative solution, Jamelle Bouie of the New York Times advocated that Democrats should vote in person if they are able to.