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2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election

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2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election

← 2017 15 May 2022 2027 →

All 195 seats in the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia
98 seats needed for a majority
Turnout7,201,210 (55.5% Decrease 9.6pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Eröffnung ICE-Instandhaltungswerk Köln-Nippes-9251 (cropped).jpg
Kutschaty, Thomas-1.jpg
Mona Neubaur - 42034755825.jpg
Candidate Hendrik Wüst Thomas Kutschaty Mona Neubaur
Party CDU SPD Greens
Last election 72 seats, 33.0% 69 seats, 31.2% 14 seats, 6.4%
Seats won 76 56 39
Seat change Increase 4 Decrease 13 Increase 25
Popular vote 2,552,276 1,905,002 1,299,821
Percentage 35.7% 26.7% 18.2%
Swing Increase 2.8pp Decrease 4.6pp Increase 11.8pp

  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Stamp, Joachim-1.jpg
Markus Wagner, Spitzenkandidat.jpg
Candidate Joachim Stamp Markus Wagner
Party FDP AfD
Last election 28 seats, 12.6% 16 seats, 7.4%
Seats won 12 12
Seat change Decrease 16 Decrease 4
Popular vote 418,460 388,768
Percentage 5.9% 5.4%
Swing Decrease 6.7pp Decrease 1.9pp

Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats.

Government before election

First Wüst cabinet
CDUFDP

Government after election

Second Wüst cabinet
CDU-Green

The 2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election was held on 15 May 2022 to elect the 18th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The outgoing government (First Wüst cabinet) was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Hendrik Wüst.

The CDU remained the largest party with 36% of votes, a small increase from 2017, while the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) declined to 27%. The Greens almost tripled their vote share to 18%. The FDP fell sharply to 6%, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) slipped to 5%. Overall, the incumbent coalition lost its majority, though the opposition SPD and Greens also fell short of victory.[1][2]

After the election, CDU formed a coalition with the Greens. This was the first time the two parties had worked together on the state level in North Rhine-Westphalia. Hendrik Wüst was re-elected as Minister-President on 28 June, and his cabinet was sworn in the next day.[3]

Election date

[edit]

The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. Elections must take place in the last three months of the legislative period.[4]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 128 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 53 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the remaining seats in a way that achieves proportionality overall. The minimum size of the Landtag is 181 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are ineligible to receive seats.[5]

Background

[edit]

In the previous election held on 14 May 2017, the CDU became the largest party with 33.0% of votes cast, an increase of seven percentage points. The SPD lost eight points and placed second with 31.2% of votes. The FDP won 12.6% (+4.0pp), and the Greens fell to 6.4% (–4.9pp). The AfD contested its first election in North Rhine-Westphalia, winning 7.4%. Other parties were not able to enter parliament, The Left only closely missing the electoral threshold of 5% winning 4.9% (+2.4pp).

The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens since 2010 (→ cabinets Kraft I und Kraft II), but this government lost its majority in the election. The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the FDP, and Armin Laschet became Minister-President (→ Cabinet Laschet).

After unsuccessfully leading the CDU/CSU in the 2021 German federal election, Laschet resigned as Minister-President. Hendrik Wüst was elected by the Landtag as his successor on 27 October 2021.[6]

Parties

[edit]

The table below lists parties represented in the 17th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Name Ideology Lead
candidate(s)
Leader(s) 2017 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Hendrik Wüst Hendrik Wüst 33.0%
72 / 199
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Thomas Kutschaty Thomas Kutschaty 31.2%
69 / 199
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Joachim Stamp Joachim Stamp 12.6%
28 / 199
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism Markus Wagner Rüdiger Lucassen 7.4%
16 / 199
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Mona Neubaur Felix Banaszak
Mona Neubaur
6.4%
14 / 199

Opinion polling

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Graphical summary

[edit]
Local regression of polls conducted.

Party polling

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU SPD FDP AfD Grüne Linke Others Lead
2022 state election 15 May 2022 35.7 26.7 5.9 5.4 18.2 2.1 6.1 9.0
Wahlkreisprognose 12–13 May 2022 1,652 33 28.5 6 6.5 16.5 3 6.5 4.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 9–12 May 2022 2,254 32 29 6 7 17 3 6 3
YouGov 6–12 May 2022 1,046 31 28 10 7 15 4 5 3
INSA 9–10 May 2022 1,000 32 28 8 7 16 3 6 4
INSA 2–9 May 2022 1,000 31 29 8 7 16 3 6 2
Wahlkreisprognose 5–6 May 2022 2,127 30 29.5 9 7 16.5 2.5 5.5 0.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 3–5 May 2022 1,026 30 28 7 7 18 3 7 2
Infratest dimap 2–4 May 2022 1,537 30 28 8 8 16 3 7 2
Wahlkreisprognose 1 May 2022 1,853 30.5 31 9 6 16.5 2.5 4.5 0.5
Forsa 19–26 Apr 2022 2,006 32 28 7 6 17 3 7 4
Wahlkreisprognose 20–22 Apr 2022 1,445 31 31.5 6.5 7.5 15 2.5 6 0.5
Infratest dimap 19–21 Apr 2022 1,164 31 30 8 7 16 3 5 1
INSA 11–13 Apr 2022 1,000 29 31 10 7 14 4 5 2
Forsa 4–11 Apr 2022 1,821 30 30 8 6 18 2 6 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 8–9 Apr 2022 1,230 27.5 33 7.5 6 17.5 3 5.5 5.5
INSA 28 Mar–4 Apr 2022 1,000 28 30 10 7 15 4 6 2
Infratest dimap 29–31 Mar 2022 1,182 31 30 8 7 15 4 5 1
Wahlkreisprognose 11–13 Mar 2022 1,100 30.5 31 9.5 5 15.5 2.5 5.5 0.5
Forsa 2–9 Mar 2022 2,006 32 27 8 6 17 3 7 5
INSA 15–17 Feb 2022 1,000 27 29 12 8 14 4 6 2
Wahlkreisprognose 13–17 Feb 2022 1,874 29 30 10 8 13.5 4 5.5 1
Forsa 26 Jan–2 Feb 2022 2,006 29 27 9 7 18 4 6 2
INSA 24 Jan–2 Feb 2022 2,000 26 28 12 8 14 4 8 2
Infratest dimap 24–27 Jan 2022 1,160 28 28 10 8 17 3 6 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 19–20 Jan 2022 1,230 30 27 11 9 13.5 4 5.5 3
Wahlkreisprognose 12–20 Dec 2021 1,210 29 28 12 7 15 3 6 1
Forsa 26 Nov–7 Dec 2021 2,009 27 27 12 7 17 4 6 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 24–28 Nov 2021 1,400 25 28 13.5 8.5 16 4 5 3
Wahlkreisprognose 11–16 Nov 2021 1,004 27 29 12 7 16.5 3.5 5 2
Wahlkreisprognose 26–31 Oct 2021 1,009 27 30 14 5 16 3 5 3
Infratest dimap 18–21 Oct 2021 1,172 22 31 13 7 17 3 7 9
Wahlkreisprognose 16–19 Oct 2021 1,320 22 30 16 6 16.5 2.5 7 8
INSA 4–10 Oct 2021 1,000 20 33 15 8 13 4 7 13
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 26.0 29.1 11.4 7.3 16.1 3.7 6.5 3.1
Wahlkreisprognose 1–9 Aug 2021 25 24.5 12 9 20 4.5 5 0.5
Wahlkreisprognose 8–15 Jul 2021 30 23.5 11 8.5 18 4 5 6.5
Forsa 10–17 May 2021 1,058 25 19 12 7 26 4 7 1
INSA 3–10 May 2021 2,014 25 20 11 9 26 4.5 4.5 1
Infratest dimap 6–8 Apr 2021 1,197 28 18 11 8 26 3 6 2
Infratest dimap 25–28 Jan 2021 1,000 37 17 8 6 24 3 5 13
INSA 22–28 Oct 2020 1,008 33 23 8 8 19 5 4 10
Infratest dimap 24–29 Aug 2020 1,002 34 21 7 7 22 4 5 12
Infratest dimap 8–9 Jun 2020 1,001 37 20 7 7 20 4 5 17
Infratest dimap 14–16 Apr 2020 1,003 40 19 7 6 20 4 4 20
Forsa 6–8 Apr 2020 1,084 39 20 8 6 15 6 6 19
Infratest dimap 24–29 Oct 2019 1,001 32 20 8 7 23 6 4 9
Mentefactum 14–21 Oct 2019 1,003 31 20 10 10 21 5 4 10
Forsa 1–16 Aug 2019 1,505 29 18 11 7 24 5 6 5
2019 EP election 26 May 2019 27.9 19.2 6.7 8.5 23.2 4.2 10.3 5.7
Infratest dimap 19–21 Feb 2019 1,001 30 23 12 9 17 6 3 7
Mentefactum 19–21 Nov 2018 1,004 28 19 11 11 19 8 5 9
Infratest dimap 4–6 Oct 2018 1,000 28 21 11 12 17 8 3 7
YouGov 6–12 Sep 2018 1,049 31 24 10 13 10 7 5 7
Infratest dimap 7–8 May 2018 1,002 35 22 9 12 12 7 3 13
Forsa 8–22 Feb 2018 1,015 34 24 12 7 10 7 6 10
Infratest dimap 9–11 Jan 2018 1,002 34 28 10 9 9 7 3 6
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 32.6 26.0 13.1 9.4 7.6 7.5 3.8 6.6
YouGov 1–8 Sep 2017 1,048 35 30 9 9 6 8 3 5
Infratest dimap 29–31 Aug 2017 1,000 33 30 13 8 6 6 4 3
2017 state election 14 May 2017 33.0 31.2 12.6 7.4 6.4 4.9 4.7 1.8

Results

[edit]
Party Constituency List Total
seats
+/–
Votes % Seats Votes % Swing
Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) 2,607,596 36.6 76 2,552,276 35.7 Increase 2.8 76 Increase 4
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) 2,092,933 29.4 45 1,905,002 26.7 Decrease 4.6 56 Decrease 13
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 1,269,804 17.8 7 1,299,821 18.2 Increase 11.8 39 Increase 25
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 390,062 5.5 0 418,460 5.9 Decrease 6.7 12 Decrease 16
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 368,271 5.2 0 388,768 5.4 Decrease 1.9 12 Decrease 4
The Left (DIE LINKE) 162,005 2.3 0 146,634 2.1 Decrease 2.8 0 ±0
Die PARTEI 82,699 1.2 0 76,006 1.1 Increase 0.4 0 ±0
Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutzpartei) 7,488 0.1 0 75,811 1.1 New 0 New
Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis) 55,292 0.8 0 60,084 0.8 New 0 New
Free Voters (FW) 34,886 0.5 0 49,985 0.7 Increase 0.3 0 ±0
Volt Germany (Volt) 27,784 0.4 0 45,177 0.6 New 0 New
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 4,501 0.1 0 19,248 0.3 Decrease 0.7 0 ±0
Team Todenhöfer 3,533 0.0 0 14,799 0.2 New 0 New
Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE) 1,462 0.0 0 14,684 0.2 Increase 0.2 0 ±0
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 9,664 0.1 Steady 0.0 0 ±0
European Party Love (LIEBE) 739 0.0 0 8,235 0.1 New 0 New
The Humanists (Die Humanisten) 280 0.0 0 8,211 0.1 New 0 New
Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung) 6,833 0.1 Steady 0.0 0 ±0
Party of Progress (PdF) 6,154 0.1 New 0 New
Democracy by Referendum (Volksabstimmung) 1,038 0.0 0 5,606 0.1 Steady 0.0 0 ±0
The Urbans. A HipHop Party (Die Urbane) 399 0.0 0 5,201 0.1 New 0 New
Alliance for Innovation and Justice (BIG) 4,222 0.1 Decrease 0.1 0 ±0
Centre Party (ZENTRUM) 1,067 0.0 0 4,162 0.1 Steady 0.0 0 ±0
German Sports Party (DSP) 3,839 0.1 New 0 New
Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD) 3,544 0.0 0 3,354 0.0 Decrease 0.1 0 ±0
German Communist Party (DKP) 1,681 0.0 0 3,049 0.0 Steady 0.0 0 ±0
The Violets (VIOLETTEN) 631 0.0 0 2,990 0.0 Decrease 0.1 0 ±0
neo. Wellbeing for all (neo) 2,192 0.0 New 0 New
Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C) 476 0.0 0 0 New
The Independents (UNABHÄNGIGE) 389 0.0 0 0 New
Liberal Democrats (LD) 185 0.0 0 0 ±0
Humane World (MENSCHLICHE WELT) 158 0.0 0 0 New
Ecological Left (ÖkoLinX) 134 0.0 0 0 New
Modern Social Party (MSP) 85 0.0 0 0 New
Independents 11,435 0.2 0 0 ±0
Valid 7,130,557 99.0 7,146,831 99.3
Invalid 69,736 1.0 53,462 0.7
Total 7,200,293 100.0 128 7,200,293 100.0 195 –4
Registered voters/turnout 12,965,858 55.5 12,965,858 55.5 Decrease 9.6
Source: State Returning Officer

Analysis

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The results of the election were widely interpreted in the German press as a rebuke of German chancellor Olaf Scholz's and the SPD's response to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the initial days after the Russian invasion, Scholz promised greater military spending and aid to Ukraine but in the following months was seen as indecisive about exporting heavy weapons to Ukraine. Germany has also been less willing than other European nations to boycott Russian energy imports. North Rhine-Westphalia is located in the industrial heartland of Germany and has traditionally been the base of support for the SPD. The Greens largely benefited from the collapse in support for the SPD, as many of their policies on Ukraine are more popular with the German public.[7][8]

The FDP's result was interpreted as coming from their federal ministers enjoying far less popularity than those of the Greens, popular Christian Lindner not running again, and many 2017 FDP voters migrating to the CDU to prevent Kutschaty from becoming Minister-President.[citation needed]

Government formation

[edit]

Since the incumbent coalition of the CDU and FDP lost its majority in the election, the formation a new government was necessary. The Greens were considered to hold the balance of power, able to enter into coalition either with the CDU or with the SPD and FDP. They held separate talks with the former two parties, but the FDP declined to participate in the belief that a CDU–Green government was a foregone conclusion.[9] The Greens continued exploratory talks with the CDU, and began formal coalition negotiations on 31 May. In a draft paper, they committed to transitioning North Rhine-Westphalia to climate neutrality, phasing out coal by 2030, and building 1,000 additional wind turbines over five years. They also agreed to hire 10,000 additional teachers and ensure equal pay for teachers regardless of the type of school they are employed in.[10] On 10 June, the two parties announced plans to finalise and approve a coalition agreement by 25 June, with Wüst to be re-elected as Minister-President on 28 June.[11]

The CDU and Greens presented their coalition agreement on 23 June, committing to the policies laid out in the previous draft paper, as well as growing police hires from 2,700 to 3,000, expanding public transport by aiming for a 60% increase in the number of buses and trains by 2030, and mandating the installation of solar energy systems in new private constructions from 2025. They also agreed to phase out regulations banning wind turbines from being built within 1,000 metres of residences. The cabinet would comprise the Minister-President, seven CDU ministers, and four Greens.[12] The coalition agreement was approved near-unanimously by a CDU conference on 25 June.[13] The same day, it passed the Greens congress with 85%. There were objections from members who criticised the proposed separation of the agriculture portfolio from the environment ministry. The state Green Youth rejected the prospect of coalition with the CDU outright, stating they could not sufficiently address pressing issues such as climate change, affordability, and rent and housing.[14]

Wüst was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 28 June, winning 106 votes out of 180 cast, plus one abstention. Fourteen deputies were absent, including four from the CDU and one from the Greens.[3]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Germany: Scholz's party defeated in bellwether North Rhine-Westphalia election". Deutsche Welle. 15 May 2022.
  2. ^ "Germany's conservatives on track to win key state vote". Deutsche Welle. 15 May 2022.
  3. ^ a b "Wüst re-elected Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia". Der Spiegel (in German). 28 June 2022.
  4. ^ "Constitution of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia". Recht.nrw.de. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
  5. ^ "State Election Law". Recht.nrw.de. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
  6. ^ "Germany: Hendrik Wüst to take helm of most populous state". Deutsche Welle. 27 October 2021.
  7. ^ Schuetze, Christopher F. (15 May 2022). "In a Setback for Scholz, Conservatives Keep Western State in Germany". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 16 May 2022.
  8. ^ Von Der Burchard, Hans (15 May 2022). "Scholz's SPD gets another shellacking in key German state election". Politico. Retrieved 16 May 2022.
  9. ^ "After the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: SPD and Greens meet for talks". Ruhr Nachrichten (in German). 20 May 2022.
  10. ^ "NRW: Greens and CDU have started coalition negotiations". Westdeutsche Zeitung (in German). 31 May 2022.
  11. ^ "CDU and Greens agree on coalition in NRW". Die Zeit (in German). 10 June 2022.
  12. ^ "CDU and Greens come together in North Rhine-Westphalia". Tagesschau (in German). 23 June 2022.
  13. ^ "NRW CDU votes for coalition with the Greens". Westdeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 25 June 2022.
  14. ^ "Greens say yes to the coalition with the CDU". Tagesschau (in German). 25 June 2022.