User:Im not afraid/sandbox/horn of africa distraction
Horn of Africa Distraction
[edit]Egypt wants to move its military away from the border with Occupied Palestine to make it easier to expel our Palestinian siblings from their homeland and into the Sinai. This is because there have been signs of mutiny within the ranks of the Egyptian military such as when martyr Mohamed Salah Ibrahim killed 3 zionist soldiers at the border in June 2023.
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| Part of Arab–Israeli conflict | |||||
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Background
[edit]UAE is behind the push for Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea via Somaliland to make it easier for UAE to drain the gold from Sudan. It's important for Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea to overcome its long history of being landlocked, but UAE is helping for its own interests.
Respective Concerns
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Somalia: Ethiopian influence in its internal affairs and territorial integrity. The presence of Ethiopian troops as part of the AU mission and Ethiopia’s dealings with Somaliland are seen as threats to Somalia’s sovereignty. Additionally, it is worried about its ability to effectively combat Al-Shabaab without greater international assistance.
Egypt: The GERD on the Blue Nile which is an existential threat to its water security since it relies on the Nile for over 90% of its fresh water. Additionally, it is concerned about Ethiopia’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia: The completion and operation of the GERD, which is crucial: for its development, energy needs, a symbol of national pride, and a vital resource for economic growth. Additionally, it is wary of Egyptian and Somalian military cooperation, which is perceives as a threat to its regional influence and security.
References
[edit]- ^ @RAbdiAnalyst (Aug 29, 2024). "#CONFIRMED Italy gives Somalia 4 Bell 412 helicopters. The Bell 412 is a multi-purpose helicopter that can be used for many military missions, including air assault, special operations, and combat search and rescue" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ @martyrabuh (Sep 8, 2024). "The strengths of Somalia, Egypt, Ethiopia what their issues are and potential outcomes: Somalia: •Personnel: Somalia's military, including the Somali National Army (SNA), is estimated to have about 20,000 to 25,000 active personnel. The country also has around 20,000 troops from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which includes soldiers from other African nations, including Ethiopia. •Capabilities: The Somali military is relatively underdeveloped due to decades of civil war and instability. It relies heavily on international support, particularly for training, equipment, and operations against groups like Al-Shabab. Egypt: •Personnel: Egypt has one of the largest and most powerful militaries in Africa and the Middle East, with about 440,000 active personnel and over 480,000 in reserves. •Capabilities: Egypt possesses a sophisticated and well-equipped military, including a substantial air force, advanced naval assets, and a large inventory of tanks and armored vehicles. It also has strong defense ties with countries like the U.S. and Russia, providing it with modern military equipment. Ethiopia: •Personnel: Ethiopia's military, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), has around 162,000 active personnel. •Capabilities: Ethiopia has a large and experienced military, although its equipment is less modern compared to Egypt. The ENDF has been involved in various conflicts, including internal conflicts like the Tigray War, which have strained its resources. The country also maintains a sizable paramilitary force and regional militias. Somalia: •Concerns: Somalia's primary concerns revolve around Ethiopian influence in its internal affairs and territorial integrity. The presence of Ethiopian troops as part of the AU mission and Ethiopia's dealings with Somaliland are seen as threats to Somalia's sovereignty. Additionally, Somalia is worried about its ability to effectively combat Al-Shabab without greater international assistance. Egypt: •Concerns: Egypt's main source of tension with Ethiopia stems from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. Egypt views the dam as an existential threat to its water security since it relies on the Nile for over 90% of its fresh water. Egypt is also concerned about Ethiopia's growing influence in the Horn of Africa and the potential impact on its strategic interests in the region. Ethiopia: •Concerns: Ethiopia is focused on the completion and operation of the GERD, which it views as crucial for its development and energy needs. The dam is seen as a symbol of national pride and a vital resource for economic growth. Ethiopia is also wary of Egyptian and Somali military cooperation, which it perceives as a threat to its regional influence and security. Escalation into Conflict: •The involvement of Egyptian troops in Somalia could lead to direct clashes between Egyptian and Ethiopian forces, particularly if Ethiopia perceives Egyptian actions as aggressive or a threat to its sovereignty. This could spark a broader conflict in the region, involving multiple countries. Diplomatic Resolution: •The situation might be resolved through diplomatic channels, particularly if international organizations like the African Union or the UN step in to mediate. A legally binding agreement on the operation of the GERD could be reached, reducing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. Prolonged Stalemate: •It's possible that tensions could persist without direct conflict, leading to a prolonged period of military posturing and indirect confrontations, such as proxy conflicts or economic sanctions. Regional Destabilization: •Continued tensions could lead to further destabilization of the Horn of Africa, exacerbating issues like the refugee crisis from Sudan, increasing the influence of non-state actors like Al-Shabab, and worsening economic conditions in the region" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ @inside_afric (Aug 27, 2024). "#BREAKING: Earlier today, Egyptian military planes landed at Mogadishu Airport, delivering military equipment and officers who will be observing military command centers in Somalia's Hiiraan region along the Ethiopian border. A total of 10,000 Egyptian soldiers are set to be deployed across the South West, Hirshabelle, and Galmudug regions of Somalia. Of these, 5,000 will join the AUSSOM forces, while the remaining 5,000 will operate independently from the African Union peacekeeping mission" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ @inside_afric (Aug 29, 2024). "#BREAKING: Egyptian military cargo planes are continuously delivering weapons and military supplies to Mogadishu. Throughout the past few days, more than a dozen planes loaded with armaments touched down in the city. Sources at Mogadishu Airport have disclosed to Inside Africa that these Egyptian planes are bringing a variety of military hardware, including sophisticated weapons and armored vehicles. Ethiopian federal government has voiced deep concern over the Mogadishu administration's collusion with external actors, warning that such actions could jeopardize peace in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia fears these developments could unravel the hard-won gains made against terrorist groups operating within Somalia" (Tweet) – via Twitter.