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January 16

Please assume food faith

I am not a conspiracy nut, but I happened to do the maths a few days ago while chatting to my wife and it stuck me that there us something amiss. Please help me to find valid rationale. In the UK there have been approximately 3,260,000 cases of covid among a reported population of 66,000,000 with total of about 86000 deaths over about the past year. This equates to 4.92% of the population having had covid and 0.1% have died. This also indicates that if one does get it, there is a 95.2% survival rate. I don't understand, are the reported figures wrong? Why are we all being locked up? A quick Google search shows that 529,613 died of the flu in 2015 in the UK alone. Have I got cabin fever? Have I drank too much Port during lockdown? Is this Ira Levin's This Perfect Day? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2A00:23C6:6884:6200:7C5C:3B3:3C73:8554 (talk) 00:33, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

You actually understate the survival rate; the case fatality rate is currently 2.6%, although it is a little uncertain as there will have been undetected cases, and there are also some people who currently have the virus (and thus are included in the figures for cases) who will ultimately die from it. There are many articles detailing the government's reasoning for the current restrictions; for example, if there were more cases, it is highly likely that healthcare would struggle, and the death rate would increase significantly. If we allowed it to infect the entire population, and assumed the death rate didn't increase, that would mean about 1.7 million deaths, a huge total, and one concentrated in certain vulnerable groups, particularly the elderly. In addition, there are concerns about what might be the medium- and long-term health impacts of the virus. Finally, your figure for flu deaths in 2015 is completely wrong, that is the total number of deaths in the UK in 2015 from all causes. Deaths from flu in the winter of 2014/15, the highest in many years, were only 28,330.[1] Warofdreams talk 01:26, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

The current survival rate depends on the capacity of the health system to treat those who need treatment. The problem is that as numbers of infected people increase, the demand on health facilities increases too. The health system does not have unlimited capacity. Once that capacity is reached, sick people won't be able to receive treatment, and the death rate will go up. Percentages such as those you have calculated only apply while numbers are below the health system's capacity. Locking you up (which is an appallingly loaded way of describing what's really happening) keeps numbers low enough for the health system to continue to cope. HiLo48 (talk) 03:14, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

And on top of all that, the large amount of care that needs to be given to COVID-19 patients means that people with other health problems may not be able to get adequate care in a reasonable time frame. I know someone who had to delay some medical testing due to such overstressing of the healthcare system. Several weeks later, he was diagnosed with stage 4 colorectal cancer. Luckily, he has responded well to treatment, but in cases like his such a delay could often mean the difference between life and death. Or at least result in a longer, more arduous treatment. Horrific as it is (and I know this sounds callous at first), but the death rate from this virus is not the real problem. --Khajidha (talk) 04:38, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

The British public had to endure all kinds of restrictions during The Blitz in 1940/1941. The total number of Covid-19 deaths is now double the number of deaths in that event (43,000 civilians) [2]. Imagine the number of deaths if there had been no lockdowns. Alansplodge (talk) 14:00, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

A further issue is that the more people who are infected with the virus, the more mutated versions will develop and the wider they will spread before COVID vaccinations become widespread enough to stop the spread. The mutations that have appeared so far already include some that are more easily transmitted; if one turns up that also causes more serious illness and isn't stopped by existing vaccines, the consequences could be very bad. --142.112.149.107 (talk) 05:35, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

The reason the infection rate is so low is because you're doing the lock-down.

You're looking at the successful result of the lock-down and wondering why you did it.

When an event like this is beginning, the mathematicians calculate how bad the do-nothing scenario is, and they also calculate how bad it will be if they try to stop it. They compare the various predictions, and the cost of achieving them, before they make any plans.

Initial estimates of that worst-case scenario for UK were for 60% infection. (And since your death rate goes way up if you can't get a hospital bed, that would have been horrifying.)

The Media likes to present that initial, worst-case scenario as a prediction of what will definitely happen, but it's not, it's the scenario we're trying to avoid. If the worst-case scenario doesn't happen, it's not a mistake, it's a victory. ApLundell (talk) 01:45, 19 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Narrowly avoided subway disaster

I remember reading 2-3 years ago about a situation where a subway collapse was narrowly avoided. IIRC a commuter, I think it was actually even a journalist, was waiting for a train, spending time by staring at the ceiling and noticed that the tile pattern was different, or that the perspective at the vanishing point didn't look right or something, and it turned out that the ceiling was sagging by several centimeters, and luckily the subway company managed to close the tunnel and repair it before it failed. I kinda think this was a recent event, maybe even in the UK or US. Does anyone remember anything like this? I can't find it on Google. 93.136.206.110 (talk) 09:54, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Not quite as you describe, but this reminds me of the Northern_City_Line#Tunnel_penetration_incident.--Shantavira|^{feed me} 12:57, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Hmmmm it could be that. It doesn't give me the "that's it!" feeling, but I kind of think it was in London around that time too. I'm not dead sure on the tunnel being repaired before it failed but I'm positive it was identified by a stroke of luck just soon enough to avoid a disaster. 93.136.132.188 (talk) 22:30, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Or perhaps Borough Hall/Court Street station in New York City, where: "In June 2018, part of the Eastern Parkway Line station's ceiling collapsed, injuring a bystander. The collapse necessitated expensive emergency repairs that would set the MTA back $8.3 million. A report found that the staff sent to inspect the station verified the defect existed in 2017, but underestimated its severity due to a lack of expertise in terracotta ceilings, nor was the issue escalated to engineers who were familiar with terracotta". See also MTA incompetence led to Borough Hall subway ceiling collapse. Alansplodge (talk) 13:41, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

There was also a roof collapse at 181st Street station (IND Eighth Avenue Line) in 2009. See MTA Negligence Led to Subway Station Ceiling Collapse, Report Says The same article mentions a section of metal ceiling falling off at Bowling Green station in 2007 (there seems to be a theme emerging here). Alansplodge (talk) 13:47, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

But OP asks about a ceiling that did not actually fall. --CiaPan (talk) 14:59, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed, but I didn't find an exact fit. Alansplodge (talk) 14:37, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Are you sure it was a subway? Something like that happened at the downtown San Francisco bus terminal a few years ago.[3] 2601:648:8202:96B0:0:0:0:313A (talk) 05:04, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

How about this one? From Clive Feather's 2020 book The Bakerloo Line, page 146:

...on 26 April 2012 there were press reports that one of the Bakerloo tunnels had collapsed south of Embankment. It turned out that heavy rain had caused excessive pressure in the clay around the tunnel and one of the iron rings had moved slightly; a train then grazed the resulting bulge.

--142.112.149.107 (talk) 19:40, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Here's the official report [4]. Something similar happened when workmen excavating on Walthamstow Marshes reported breaking into a tunnel. It was quickly established they had penetrated the Victoria Line. Walthamstow (and indeed my house) was one of the sites of The hum. 194.53.186.169 (talk) 15:48, 22 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

That report is for the incident Shantavira mentioned. There doesn't appear to have been an official inquiry regarding the less serious one in the book. --142.112.149.107 (talk) 10:20, 23 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks everyone. I was hoping someone would come up with something that would immediately ring familiar. I guess my brain turned something else into a more satisfying story, probably Shantavira's incident. 93.136.165.92 (talk) 13:05, 23 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

more information neeeded

The entry on the "complete and utter history of britain" television program does not mention why there are no DVDs available that will play on U.S. players.

Someone should investigate why this is and mention it on your entry. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 47.25.72.170 (talk) 22:36, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Please feel free to do so, and let us all know the results of your efforts. DOR (HK) (talk) 23:21, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

According to our article, it's not available in the UK either, except for the first two episodes. The rest of the show was lost. DVDs, generally, are region-locked because various parties think it's best for current and future profits. My advice would be to immediately pirate and redistribute this and any other TV shows you're interested in, so they won't suffer the same fate. It's cultural preservation, and it's the moral choice. Temerarius (talk) 23:56, 16 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Which article is that? ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 00:17, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

The Complete and Utter History of Britain. -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 01:33, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Only 6 episodes, and only 2 have survived. Not much DVD material there. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 02:07, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Enough that a Blu-Ray/DVD of the surviving episodes, with edited-out material restored and new material added, was released. {The poster formerly known as 87.81.230.195} 90.200.40.9 (talk) 03:14, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Where and when? ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 05:30, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

On Amazon: The New Complete and Utter History of Britain - 3-Disc Box Set. The pages states explicitly "This will not play on most DVD players sold in the U.S." Another Amazon entry for this 3-disc box set, apparently channelled from amazon.fr, does not have such a warning, but does not state a DVD region either. These utterly incomplete New Complete and Utter Histories share the set of user reviews; the second has a much higher Blu-ray price (but not on amazon.fr). --Lambiam 09:28, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

That should be The Complete and Uhtred History of Britain. Clarityfiend (talk) 20:36, 18 January 2021 (UTC) [reply]

As an aside, virtually any DVD player can be hacked so that it is region free. Just Google it.--Shantavira|^{feed me} 11:46, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

I don't hold with such "hacks", generally speaking, but having DVDs separated into regions is a wicked, evil thing, so all bets are off. -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 22:02, 17 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]

FYI There are plenty of region free dvd and bluray players for sale at various etail sites. The price has dropped dramatically over the years and they are now less expensive than some of the DVD sets I purchase to fill my library. MarnetteD|Talk

The "hack" in question usually involves pressing a short sequence of buttons on the remote. Short enough that the manufacturers had to have programmed the "hack" themselves. An undocumented feature would be a better description. 93.136.22.227 (talk) 23:07, 19 January 2021 (UTC)[reply]