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==References==
==References==
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==External links==
==External links==

Revision as of 16:02, 11 July 2010

2010 Atlantic hurricane season
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJune 25, 2010
Last system dissipatedSeason still active
Strongest storm
NameAlex
 • Maximum winds105 mph (165 km/h)
 • Lowest pressure947 mbar (hPa; 27.97 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions2
Total storms1
Hurricanes1
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		0
Total fatalities33 direct, 19 indirect
Total damage$1.21 billion (2010 USD)
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2008, 2009, 2010, Post-2010

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is the period in 2010 during which tropical cyclones will form in the Atlantic Ocean. The season officially started on June 1, 2010 and will end on November 30, dates which conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical systems form in the basin. The season began with Hurricane Alex, a Category 2 storm on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale which struck the Yucatán Peninsula as a tropical storm and northeastern Mexico south of the Texas border at peak intensity.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2010 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1950–2005[1]) 10.3 6.2 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0†
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
CSU December 10, 2009 11–16 6–8 3–5
CSU April 7, 2010 15 8 4
NCSU April 26, 2010 15–18 8–11 N/A
NOAA May 27, 2010 14–23 8–14 3–7
CSU June 2, 2010 18 10 5
UKMO June 17, 2010 20* N/A N/A
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity
(up to July 22) 		1 1 0
* July–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Philip J. Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University (formerly led by William M. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, 2.3 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 96.1.[2] NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength and the ACE index.[3]

Pre-season forecasts

On December 9, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued their first extended-range forecast for the 2010 season, predicting average to above-average activity (11 to 16 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 100–162), citing that the 2009–10 El Niño event is likely to dissipate by the start of the season.[2] On April 7, 2010, Klotzbachs's team issued an updated forecast for the 2010 season, predicting above-average activity (15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher), citing the dissipating 2009–10 El Niño, the possibility of current weak to moderate La Niña and warming Atlantic SSTs (sea surface temperatures) as potential factors.[4] North Carolina State University professor Lian Xie and a team of colleagues and students predicted that 2010 would see 15 to 18 named storms, with 8–11 potentially becoming hurricanes.[5] Xie’s team predicts that 3-6 storms will make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, with one storm making landfall at hurricane status. However, no prediction was made for the number of major hurricanes.[5]

On May 27, 2010, NOAA released their forecast for the season, predicting an "extremely active" season (14 to 23 named storms, 8 to 14 hurricanes, and 3 to 7 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher). NOAA based its forecast on weaker wind shear, warmer temperatures in the region and the continuance of the "high activity era" (i.e. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation warm phase) which began in 1995. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, added the main uncertainty in the outlook was how much above normal the 2010 season will be, and whether the high end of the predicted range is reached "depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer. At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop."[6]

Mid-season outlooks

On June 2, 2010, Klotzbach's team issued their second updated forecast for the 2010 season, predicting 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.[7] The university said it now believes there will be more storms than they believed earlier. The university also said the chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast is 76 percent, compared to an average of 52 percent for the last 100 years. The chance of a major hurricane hitting the Florida peninsula and the U.S. east coast is 51 percent, compared to an average of 30 percent for the last 100 years.[8] On June 17, the UK Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast of an above-average season. They predicted 20 tropical storms with a 70% chance that the number would be between 13 and 27. However, they do not issue forecasts on the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. They also predicted an ACE Index of 204 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 90 to 319.[9]

Storms

Hurricane Alex

Main article: Hurricane Alex (2010)
Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 25 – July 2
Peak intensity105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min);
947 mbar (hPa)

On June 12, a tropical wave emerged off Western Africa, and eventually traveled along the Intertropical Convergence Zone. It was first noted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on June 20, while it was crossing the Windward Islands. The next day, it organized itself, and the NHC assessed a 50% chance of development into a tropical depression within next 2 days. It became less organized the next day; however, conditions were still favorable for development. On June 24, it began to reestablish south of Jamaica, although it was poorly organized. Later that day, shower activity increased, and pressures began to fall. Hurricane Hunters flew inside it the next day and found a well defined circulation, and based on that data, the NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression One, the first tropical depression of the season. Early on June 26, the NHC upgraded the depression to a tropical storm and named it Alex. Alex moved west and strengthened before making landfall in Belize with 65 mph winds on June 26. On June 27, Alex emerged into the Bay of Campeche and began to strengthen again. On June 29, after continuous drops in pressure, the Hurricane Hunters found that Alex had strong enough winds to be upgraded to hurricane status. Accordingly, late that night, Alex was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane. This made the storm the first hurricane of the season, and the first June hurricane in the Atlantic since 1995's Hurricane Allison.[10] Alex later went on to make landfall as a moderate Category 2 hurricane in Soto la Marina.

Tropical Depression Two

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 8 – July 10
Peak intensity35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min);
1005 mbar (hPa)

By July 3, the day after Alex dissipated, a tropical wave was producing two areas of convection across the western Caribbean Sea.[11] The next day, the system began showing signs of organization concurrently with decreasing pressures across the region.[12] After crossing the Yucatán Peninsula and entering the Gulf of Mexico, however, the system became disorganized, although its upper-level environment was forecast to become more favorable.[13] On July 7, the convection became more concentrated,[14] and by July 8 the system organized enough for the National Hurricane Center to initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, about 245 miles (495 km) east of La Pesca, Tamaulipas.[15] Upon developing, the depression was located in an area of warm water temperatures, with relatively low amounts of wind shear. Initially, its inner core of convection was diminishing, coinciding with an increase in outer banding features. With the cyclone forecast to remain over waters for about 24 hours before moving ashore, intensification to tropical storm status was forecast.[15] Tropical storm warnings were immediately put up for the coast of northeastern Mexico and South Texas, the same area impacted heavily by Alex. However, at 1515 UTC, the depression made landfall in South Padre Island, Texas without having reached tropical storm strength, its sustained winds peaking at 35 mph (55 km/h). [16]

Timeline of events

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

June

June 25
  • 2200 UTC (6:00 p.m. EDT) – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Tropical Depression One has formed just northeast of the Atlantic coast of Honduras.[17]
June 26
  • 0900 UTC (5:00 a.m. EDT) – The NHC reports that Tropical Depression One has strengthened into a tropical storm and names it Alex.[18]
  • 0300 UTC June 27 (10:00 p.m. CDT) – Tropical Storm Alex makes landfall near Belize City, Belize with 60 mph (95 km/h) winds.
June 27
  • 1500 UTC (10:00 a.m. CDT) – Tropical Storm Alex weakens to a tropical depression.
  • 0300 UTC June 28 (10:00 p.m. CDT) – Tropical Depression Alex re-strengthens into a tropical storm.
June 29
  • 0300 UTC June 30 (10:00 p.m. CDT) – Tropical Storm Alex strengthens into a Category 1 hurricane.[19]
June 30
  • 2300 UTC (6:00 p.m. CDT) – Hurricane Alex is upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane.[20]
  • 0200 UTC July 1 (9:00 p.m. CDT) – Hurricane Alex makes landfall around Soto la Marina, Mexico with 105 mph (165 km/h) winds.

July

July 1
  • 0600 UTC (1:00 a.m. CDT) – Hurricane Alex weakens to a Category 1 hurricane.
  • 1200 UTC (7:00 a.m. CDT) – Hurricane Alex weakens to a tropical storm.
  • 0300 UTC July 2 (10:00 p.m. CDT) – Tropical Storm Alex weakens and dissipates over the mountains of central Mexico.
July 8
  • 0300 UTC (10:00 p.m. CDT July 7) - Tropical Depression Two forms in the western Gulf of Mexico.
  • 1515 UTC (10:15 a.m. CDT) - Tropical Depression Two makes landfall near the southern end of South Padre Island, Texas with 35 mph (55 km/h) winds.[21]
July 10
  • 0300 UTC (10:00 p.m. CDT July 9) - The HPC issues its final advisory on the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.[22]

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 Alex 6.78
Total: 6.78

The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength (not including subtropical storms).[23]

Storm names

The following names are available for use on named storms that form in the North Atlantic during 2010. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2011. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2016 season. This is the same list used in the 2004 season with the exception of Colin, Fiona, Igor, and Julia, which replaced the names of the four major hurricanes that made landfall in Florida in the U.S. in 2004: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, respectively.[24]

  • Alex
  • Bonnie (unused)
  • Colin (unused)
  • Danielle (unused)
  • Earl (unused)
  • Fiona (unused)
  • Gaston (unused)
  • Hermine (unused)
  • Igor (unused)
  • Julia (unused)
  • Karl (unused)
  • Lisa (unused)
  • Matthew (unused)
  • Nicole (unused)
  • Otto (unused)
  • Paula (unused)
  • Richard (unused)
  • Shary (unused)
  • Tomas (unused)
  • Virginie (unused)
  • Walter (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of the storms in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This table includes the storm's names, duration, peak intensity, landfall(s), damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident or landslide), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical or a wave or low. All of the damage figures are in 2010 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5

Template:TC stats table start

|- style="background:#FFD98C" ! align=left | Alex | style="text-align:left;background:#FFFFFF; color:black" data-sort-value="June 25 , 2017" | June 25 – July 2 | style="text-align:center;" data-sort-value="20"|Category 2 hurricane | style="text-align:center;" | 105 | style="text-align:center;" | 947 | style="text-align:left;background:#FFFFFF; color:black" | {{{areas}}} | style="text-align:center;background:#FFFFFF; color:black" data-sort-value=""| {{{damage}}} | style="text-align:center;background:#FFFFFF; color:black" data-sort-value=""| {{{deaths}}} | style="text-align:right;background:#FFFFFF; color:black" data-sort-value="0"| Template:TC stats first landfall Template:TC stats impact Template:TC stats next landfall

|- style="background:#6EC1EA" ! align=left | Two | style="text-align:left;background:#FFFFFF; color:black" data-sort-value="July 8 - July 10" | July 8 - July 10 | style="text-align:center;" data-sort-value="5"|Tropical depression | style="text-align:center;" | 35 | style="text-align:center;" | 1005 | style="text-align:left;background:#FFFFFF; color:black" | {{{areas}}} | style="text-align:center;background:#FFFFFF; color:black" data-sort-value=""| {{{damage}}} | style="text-align:center;background:#FFFFFF; color:black" data-sort-value=""| {{{deaths}}} | style="text-align:right;background:#FFFFFF; color:black" data-sort-value="0"| Template:TC stats first landfall Template:TC stats impact Template:TC stats table end

See also

References

  1. ^ "Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season". Expert Assessments. Climate Prediction Center. Retrieved 10 June 2010.
  2. ^ a b Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2009-12-10). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2010" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved 2009-12-10.
  3. ^ National Hurricane Center (May 22, 2008). "NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Classifications". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved November 28, 2009.
  4. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2010-04-10). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2010" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved 2010-04-10.
  5. ^ a b Peake, Tracey (April 26, 2010). "NC State Predicts Active Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2010". Lian Xie, Montserrat Fuentes, Danny Modlin. North Carolina State University. Retrieved 2 May 2010.
  6. ^ National Hurricane Center (May 27, 2010). "NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved May 28, 2010.
  7. ^ Kate Spinner (June 2, 2010). "Klotzbach and Gray up their forecast for hurricane season". The Sarasota Herald-Tribune. Retrieved June 2, 2010. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  8. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2010-06-02). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2010" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved 2010-06-02.
  9. ^ "Active hurricane season predicted". 17 June 2010. Retrieved 17 June 2010.
  10. ^ Brian K. Sullivan (2010-06-30). "Hurricane Alex Gathers Strength as It Nears Mexico". Bloomberg Businessweek. Retrieved 2010-07-05. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  11. ^ Robbie Berg (2010-07-03). "Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2010-07-08.
  12. ^ Blake/Kimberlain (2010-07-04). "Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2010-07-08.
  13. ^ Stewart/Cangialosi (2010-07-05). "Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2010-07-08.
  14. ^ Eric Brown (2010-07-07). "Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2010-07-08.
  15. ^ a b Stewart/Cangialosi (2010-07-08). "Tropical Depression Two Discussion One". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2010-07-08.
  16. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT2+shtml/081512.shtml?
  17. ^ Avila and Brennan (June 25, 2010). "Tropical Depression One Special Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  18. ^ Beven (June 26, 2010). "Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 3". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 26 June 2010.
  19. ^ Pasch/Berg (June 29, 2010). "Hurricane Alex Advisory Number 18". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
  20. ^ Pasch/Berg (June 30, 2010). "Hurricane Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 21A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 30, 2010.
  21. ^ Pasch/Berg (July 8, 2010). "Tropical Depression Two Tropical Cyclone Update". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 8, 2010.
  22. ^ Gerhardt (July 10, 2010). "Tropical Depression Two Advisory 9 update". The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Retrieved July 10, 2010.
  23. ^ National Hurricane Center (May 27, 2010). "Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved June 21, 2010.
  24. ^ "Retired Hurricane Names Since 1954". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 29 November 2009.

Template:2010-2019 Atlantic hurricane seasons

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