2007 Ontario general election
Template:Future election The Ontario general election of 2007 is scheduled to be held on October 4, 2007 to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of the Province of Ontario, Canada. As a result of legislation passed by the Legislature in 2004, election dates are now fixed by formula so that an election is held approximately four years after the previous election, unless the government is defeated by a vote of "no confidence" in the Legislature. Previously, the governing party had considerable flexibility to determine the date of an election within five years of being elected.
The general election will elect Ontario's 39th Legislative Assembly. The leader of the party with the most seats normally becomes the next premier of the province, unless the other two political parties together hold a majority of seats and decide to form a coalition government.
On election day, there will likely also be a provincial referendum on the recommendations of the Ontario Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform.
Opinion polls
Since the 2003 general election, several polls have been conducted to determine the current preference of voters. They showed a severe decline in Liberal support following the 2004 Ontario budget. Overall, the Liberals have declined significantly since the 2003 election, the NDP has gained significant ground since the 2003 election, and the PCs' poll numbers have not changed significantly since 2003.
Note that the majority of dates listed here are dates the polls were released, not conducted.
| Polling firm | Date | Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal|File:Lposmall.png | Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives|File:Pcposmall.png | Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP|File:Ndposmall.png | Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Green|File:Gposmall.png |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | PC | NDP | Green | ||
| EKOS | October 12, 2006 | 42.4 | 36.2 | 19.6 | |
| SES Research | October 7, 2006 | 40 | 33 | 20 | 8 |
| Léger Marketing | July 23, 2006 | 39 | 35 | 20 | 7 |
| Environics | June 23, 2006[1] | 35 | 36 | 27 | - |
| Léger Marketing | May 29, 2006[2] | 35 | 37 | 18 | - |
| Vector Research | May 14, 2006 | 39 | 38 | 18 | 5 |
| Léger Marketing | April 24, 2006 | 39 | 35 | 18 | - |
| Environics | April 13, 2006 | 34 | 39 | 24 | - |
| SES Research | March 23, 2006 | 41 | 34 | 20 | 5 |
| Léger Marketing | March 22, 2006 | 34 | 34 | 20 | - |
| SES Research | February 17, 2006 | 41 | 37 | 18 | 4 |
| Vector Research | January 21, 2006 | 36 | 35 | 23 | 6 |
| Environics | October 16, 2005 | 42 | 35 | 21 | - |
| Vector Research | September 19, 2005 | 33 | 41 | 20 | 6 |
| SES Research | June 14, 2005 | 41 | 35 | 21 | 4 |
| Léger Marketing | June 8, 2005 | 42 | 34 | 17 | - |
| Léger Marketing | April 29, 2005 | 36 | 37 | 19 | - |
| Vector Research | April 13, 2005 | 35 | 41 | 18 | 5 |
| Environics | April 11, 2005 | 35 | 41 | 21 | - |
| Léger Marketing | March 17, 2005 | 44 | 33 | 19 | - |
| Vector Research | December 16, 2004 | 39 | 32 | 24 | 5 |
| Environics | December, 2004 | 37 | 39 | 23 | - |
| Environics | October 12, 2004[3] | 35 | 40 | 23 | - |
| Léger Marketing | September, 2004 | 37 | 35 | 19 | - |
| Vector Research | August 22, 2004 | 37 | 32 | 23 | 9 |
| Environics | August 9, 2004 | 35 | 37 | 23 | 4 |
| Ipsos-Reid | June 14, 2004 | 32 | 39 | 23 | 6 |
| SES Research | June 5, 2004 | 34 | 41 | 20 | - |
| Decima | May 27, 2004 | 32 | 29 | 21 | - |
| Environics | May 6, 2004 | 45 | 33 | 20 | 1 |
| Ipsos-Reid | April 19, 2004 | 45 | 30 | 19 | 5 |
| SES Research | January 23, 2004 | 49 | 29 | 10 | - |
| Environics | January 21, 2004 | 50 | 30 | 16 | 3 |
| Ipsos-Reid | December 14, 2003 | 51 | 27 | 16 | 6 |
| Ipsos-Reid | November 8, 2003 | 56 | 27 | 12 | 5 |
| Environics | October 30, 2003 | 49 | 29 | 18 | 2 |
| Last election (October 2, 2003) | 46.4 | 34.6 | 14.7 | 2.8 | |
- ^ Date poll finished being conducted. Released July 18, 2006.
- ^ Date poll finished being conducted. Released June 14, 2006.
- ^ Date poll finished being conducted. Released December 11, 2004.
Results by party
| Party | Party Leader | # of candidates |
Seats | Popular Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Current | Elected | % Change | # | % | % Change | Liberal | Dalton McGuinty | 72 | 68 |
Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives/row |
Progressive Conservative | John Tory | 24 | 23 | New Democratic | Howard Hampton | 7 | 9 | Green | Frank de Jong | - | - |
Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Family Coalition/row |
Family Coalition | Giuseppe Gori | - | - | Freedom | Paul McKeever | - | - | Communist | Elizabeth Rowley | - | - | Confederation of Regions | none (Richard Butson, de facto) | - | - | Independent/No affiliation | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vacant | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 103 | 103 | 1071 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- By law, Ontario's electoral districts conform with the federal electoral districts, however changes could be made to keep minimum representation in certain areas (e.g., in northern districts).
Ridings
With the passing of Bill 214 and the Representation Act, 2005, 2005, Ontario’s electoral boundaries will no longer be identical to the federal electoral boundaries. Beginning with the next provincial general election on October 4, 2007, Ontario will be divided into 107 electoral districts. The districts will consist of 11 northern electoral districts that are identical (except for a minor boundary adjustment) to the ones that existed on October 2, 2003, and 96 southern electoral districts that are identical to their federal counterparts, as they existed on September 1, 2004.
The 11 northern electoral districts are: Algoma—Manitoulin, Kenora—Rainy River, Nickel Belt, Nipissing, Parry Sound—Muskoka, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay—Superior North, Timiskaming—Cochrane, and Timmins—James Bay.
Ontario 107 electoral districts
Target seats
Target seats shown are the ridings that each party came within 15% of winning in the last election, using redistributed results.
Timeline
- May 13, 2004 - Andrea Horwath of the NDP is elected in a by-election in Hamilton East and collects over 60% of the vote. The riding was previously held by the Liberals.
- May 18, 2004 - The 2004 Ontario budget is announced, and is very unpopular with the public, as it includes many broken promises including a tax increase and health care cuts.
- June 1, 2004 - Bill 87, which would establish fixed election dates, is introduced in the Legislative Assembly.
- August 9, 2004 - A poll by Environics shows the Liberals in second place for the first time since the last election. The NDP is also rising in support. According to the poll, the Progressive Conservatives lead with 37% followed by the Liberals with 35%, the NDP with 23% and the Greens with 4%. [4]
- September 18, 2004 - John Tory becomes leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party replacing outgoing former premier Ernie Eves and defeating Jim Flaherty and Frank Klees.
- January 31, 2005 - Eves resigns his seat in the provincial legislature, clearing the way for Tory to run in the resulting by-election.
- March 17, 2005 - John Tory is elected in the Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey by-election, holding the seat for the Conservatives.
- March 29, 2005 - John Tory is officially installed as the Leader of the Opposition.
- August 18, 2005 - Speaker Alvin Curling resigns his Scarborough—Rouge River seat to accept a diplomatic appointment. A by-election must be called within six months.
- October 26, 2005 - A by-election is called for Scarborough—Rouge River for November 24.
- November 24, 2005 - Bas Balkissoon wins in the Scarborough-Rouge River by-election, holding the seat for the liberals.
- November 29, 2005- Progressive Conservative MPPs Jim Flaherty, John Baird, and NDP MPP Marilyn Churley resign their seats in the provincial legislature to run for seats in the Canadian House of Commons in the 2006 federal election.
- March 1, 2006 - By-elections are called for the ridings of Toronto-Danforth, Nepean-Carleton, and Whitby-Ajax for March 30. These seats became vacant when they were resigned on November 29, 2005, so the MPP's could run in the federal election of January 2006.
- March 30, 2006 - Peter Tabuns of the NDP wins a by-election in Toronto-Danforth, Progressive Conservative Lisa MacLeod wins in Nepean-Carleton, and Progressive Conservative Christine Elliott wins in Whitby-Ajax. The Liberals' star candidates in all three ridings fell short. [5]
- May 18, 2006 - Former Education Minister Gerard Kennedy resigns his Parkdale-High Park seat to pursue his bid for the federal Liberal leadership. [6]
- September 14, 2006 - Cheri DiNovo of the NDP wins the by-election to replace Liberal Gerard Kennedy in Parkdale-High Park.
- September 18, 2006 - Joe Cordiano resigns from cabinet and legislature to spend more time with family.
- September 25, 2006 - Tony Wong resigns from the legislature to run for York Region council in Markham.[7]
- September 28, 2006 - Cam Jackson resigns from the legislature to run for mayor of Burlington
| Preceded by 2003 Ontario election |
Ontario elections | Succeeded by 2011 Ontario election |
See also
- Politics of Ontario
- List of Ontario political parties
- Premier of Ontario
- Leader of the Opposition (Ontario)