Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2013

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The Coalition won the 2013 federal election with 90 of 150 lower house seats on a current 17-seat 3.65 percent two-party swing, defeating the 6-year Labor government. Labor holds 55 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining five. The Division of Fairfax [1] was the last seat to be declared.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'.".[2]

Pendulum[edit]

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the cross benches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Barton (NSW) Nickolas Varvaris LIB 50.31
Petrie (Qld) Luke Howarth LNP 50.53
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Peter Hendy LIB 50.61
Dobell (NSW) Karen McNamara LIB 50.68
Capricornia (Qld) Michelle Landry LNP 50.77
Reid (NSW) Craig Laundy LIB 50.85
O’Connor (WA) Rick Wilson LIB 50.95 V NWA
Lyons (Tas) Eric Hutchinson LIB 51.22
Solomon (NT) Natasha Griggs CLP 51.40
Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB 51.83
Hindmarsh (SA) Matt Williams LIB 51.89
Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT 52.52
Braddon (Tas) Brett Whiteley LIB 52.56
Gilmore (NSW) Ann Sudmalis LIB 52.65
Lindsay (NSW) Fiona Scott LIB 52.99
Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB 53.00
Deakin (Vic) Michael Sukkar LIB 53.18
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 53.69
Corangamite (Vic) Sarah Henderson LIB 53.94
Durack (WA) Melissa Price LIB 53.98 V NWA
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB 54.01
Bass (Tas) Andrew Nikolic LIB 54.04
Brisbane (Qld) Teresa Gambaro LNP 54.28
Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP 54.38
Macquarie (NSW) Louise Markus LIB 54.48
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 54.87
Dunkley (Vic) Bruce Billson LIB 55.57
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 55.68
Fairly safe
Herbert (Qld) Ewen Jones LNP 56.17
Mallee (Vic) Andrew Broad NAT 56.21 V LIB
Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP 56.53
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 56.53
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 56.72
Longman (Qld) Wyatt Roy LNP 56.92
Boothby (SA) Andrew Southcott LIB 57.12
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB 57.17
Cowan (WA) Luke Simpkins LIB 57.46
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 57.58
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB 57.77
Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB 58.06
Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB 58.20
Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP 58.54
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP 58.86
Hinkler (Qld) Keith Pitt LNP 59.04
Fisher (Qld) Mal Brough LNP 59.75
Paterson (NSW) Bob Baldwin LIB 59.78
Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB 59.93
Safe
Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB 60.07
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 60.08
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB 60.30
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB 60.67
Goldstein (Vic) Andrew Robb LIB 61.03
Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB 61.06
Macarthur (NSW) Russell Matheson LIB 61.36
Hume (NSW) Angus Taylor LIB 61.47
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 61.71
Canning (WA) Don Randall LIB 61.81
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB 61.81
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB 61.83
Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP 61.84
Moore (WA) Ian Goodenough LIB 61.86
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB 62.28
Mayo (SA) Jamie Briggs LIB 62.51
McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP 63.00
Wide Bay (Qld) Warren Truss LNP 63.16
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 63.54
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP 64.36
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB 64.45
New England (NSW) Barnaby Joyce NAT 64.46 V IND
Tangney (WA) Dennis Jensen LIB 64.67
Lyne (NSW) David Gillespie NAT 64.77
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB 65.35
Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT 65.84
North Sydney (NSW) Joe Hockey LIB 65.89
Calare (NSW) John Cobb NAT 65.97
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB 66.35
Groom (Qld) Ian Macfarlane LNP 66.47
Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB 66.55
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB 67.42
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB 67.43
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LIB 67.72
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP 67.95
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop LIB 68.84
Berowra (NSW) Philip Ruddock LIB 69.07
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB 70.78
Murray (Vic) Sharman Stone LIB 70.87
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT 71.17
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB 72.08
Maranoa (Qld) Bruce Scott LNP 72.28
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT 72.35
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP 50.15
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 50.57
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 50.88
Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP 51.26
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 51.32
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 51.55
Chisholm (Vic) Anna Burke ALP 51.60
Bruce (Vic) Alan Griffin ALP 51.80
Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP 51.76
Werriwa (NSW) Laurie Ferguson ALP 52.24
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 52.74
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP 52.88
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 52.98
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 52.98
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 53.13
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP 53.40
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 53.56
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 53.67
Oxley (Qld) Bernie Ripoll ALP 53.77
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 53.86
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 53.95
Perth (WA) Alannah MacTiernan ALP 54.35
Fremantle (WA) Melissa Parke ALP 54.77
Rankin (Qld) Jim Chalmers ALP 54.78
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 54.89
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 55.06
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 55.09
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 55.26
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 55.32
Fairly safe
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 56.81
Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP 56.98
Shortland (NSW) Jill Hall ALP 57.21
Hotham (Vic) Clare O'Neil ALP 57.27
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 57.75
Throsby (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP 57.77
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Claydon ALP 58.83
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 59.09
Charlton (NSW) Pat Conroy ALP 59.23
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 59.70
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 59.88
Safe
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP 60.55
Batman (Vic) David Feeney ALP 60.61 V GRN
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 61.39
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 61.43
Lalor (Vic) Joanne Ryan ALP 62.16
Fraser (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP 62.62
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 63.86
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP 64.02
Scullin (Vic) Andrew Giles ALP 64.35
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 64.65
Wills (Vic) Kelvin Thomson ALP 65.20 V GRN
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O’Connor ALP 66.12
Gellibrand (Vic) Tim Watts ALP 66.53
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 66.80
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP 70.34
CROSS BENCH SEATS
Fairfax (Qld) Clive Palmer PUP 50.03 v LNP
Indi (Vic) Cathy McGowan IND 50.25 v LIB
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP 52.19 v LNP
Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN 55.91 v ALP
Denison (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND 65.51 v ALP


References[edit]

  1. ^ "House of Representatives First Division Preferences", Virtual Tally Room 2013, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 30 October 2013.
  2. ^ "Division Classifications – House of Representatives - Seat Summary", Virtual Tally Room 2013, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 30 October 2013.