Politics of Northern Ireland

The vast majority of the population of Northern Ireland identifies with one of two different ideologies, unionist (who want the region to remain part of the United Kingdom) and nationalist (who want a united Ireland). Unionists are predominantly Protestant, most of whom belong to the Presbyterian Church in Ireland or the Church of Ireland. Nationalists are predominantly Catholic. However, not all Catholics support nationalism, and not all Protestants support unionism. It is also important to note that, in parallel with other parts of Europe, the proportion of the population practising their religious beliefs has fallen dramatically in recent decades, particularly among Catholics and adherents of mainstream Protestant denominations. This has not necessarily resulted in a weakening of communal feeling.

Once established under the Government of Ireland Act 1920, Northern Ireland was structured geographically (see gerrymander) to guarantee a unionist majority in its government. In local government significantly nationalist areas produced unionist majorities through the gerrymandering of electoral wards and granting of extra voting rights to property owners (where most Catholics were renting and most Protestants were owners). Anger at local government control by unionists, and the awarding of social housing to Protestants to ensure unionist majorities in areas with large Catholic populations, was a significant factor in the creation of the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association in the 1960s, with a sit-in by nationalist politician Austin Currie in a house granted to a 19-year old single Protestant woman (who worked for the Ulster Unionist Party) ahead of a large homeless Catholic family triggering off the movement. [2]

In recent decades the Catholic population has increased in percentage terms within Northern Ireland, while the Presbyterian and Church of Ireland population percentages have decreased. However the decreasing size of Catholic families and the increasing use of birth control among the Catholic community has led to a slowing down in the growth of the Catholic population. Statisticians predict both communities will achieve close to parity in size, with Protestants dominant primarily to the east and north of Northern Ireland and Catholics dominant to the west and south. However as of 2005 most statisticians predict that Protestants will continue to slightly outnumber Catholics in Northern Ireland as a whole for some time to come.

The religious affiliations, based on census returns, have changed as follows between 1961 and 2002:

Views on the Union

Religious Affiliations in Northern Ireland 1961–2001

Religions	1961	1991	2001
Roman Catholic	34.9%	38.4%	40.3%
Presbyterian (Protestant)	29.0%	21.4%	20.7%
Church of Ireland (Protestant)	24.2%	17.7%	15.3%
Other Religions	9.3%	11.5%	9.9%
Not Stated	2.0%	7.3%	9.0%
None	0.0%	3.8%	5.0%

Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2003 [3]

Religion	Affiliation	2003
Protestant	Unionist	68%
	Nationalist	1%
	Neither	29%
Catholic	Unionist	0%
	Nationalist	60%
	Neither	36%
Total	Unionist	38%
	Nationalist	24%
	Neither	35%

File:Northern Ireland Poll.png

Results of this survey [1] on the future of Northern Ireland have remained fairly constant over the past several years.

Most Northern Irish Catholics support unification, although opinion polls have shown a minority (approximately 30% according to a study in 2005, although as the above survey from 2003 gives 0%, perhaps they leave something to be desired), who support remaining part of the United Kingdom, usually while continuing to support nationalist political parties. The proportion of Protestants given in the study who wish to join the Republic is usually smaller. There are also considerable numbers of people who give ambiguous answers to questions about the future constitutional status of Northern Ireland. Some who want reunification consider themselves to be republicans as opposed to nationalists, who have historically sought a favourable arrangement for Ireland within the United Kingdom. Some extremists in the Protestant community (such as paramilitaries and their supporters) usually term themselves as loyalists, as opposed to unionists. The term "loyalist" has become less popular among unionists in recent years, especially with unionist politicians.

While elections in Northern Ireland are often characterised as mini-referenda on the constitutional question, this is too simplistic an analysis. Voters may also perceive voting to be about strengthening the hand of their section of the community within Northern Ireland, or about gaining advantage for their social class.

Representation

Northern Ireland currently has 18 seats in the United Kingdom House of Commons (10 unionist, 8 nationalist). The Northern Ireland Assembly has 108 MLAs (59 unionists, 42 nationalists, 7 others), although this is currently in suspension. It is also represented in the European Parliament with 3 seats (2 unionist, 1 nationalist), and at local level by 26 district councils. Voting patterns break down as follows:

• 2005 Westminster election - Unionists 51.4%, Nationalists 41.8%, Others 6.8%

• 2005 local elections - Unionists 52%, Nationalists 42%, Others 8%

• 2004 European election - Unionists 48.6%, Nationalists 42.2%, Others 9.2%

• 2003 Assembly election - Unionists 52.1%, Nationalists 40.5%, Others 7.4%

Sinn Féin, currently the biggest of the nationalist parties in Northern Ireland, has campaigned for a broadening of the franchise of Northern Ireland voters to allow them to vote in elections to choose the President of Ireland. It has also demanded that all Northern Ireland MEPs and MPs be allowed speaking rights in the lower house of the parliament of the Republic of Ireland, Dáil Éireann. It was given to understand that the Irish government has accepted this, and plans to introduce legislation in the autumn of 2005 [4]. The SDLP backed the move. However a spokesman for Taoiseach Bertie Ahern later rowed back, stating that it had never been intended that that northern MPs have a right to attend plenary sessions of the Dáil, but that they would be invited to participate in Oireachtas committees dealing with Northern Ireland matters, and only if there was all-party agreement behind it. The unionist parties, along with Fine Gael, Labour and the Progressive Democrats have all declared their opposition to the move, as has much of the Irish media, with articles highly critical of the proposal published in The Irish Times and the Sunday Independent [5] [6].

Political parties

Political parties in Northern Ireland can be divided into three distinct categories: unionist parties, such as the Democratic Unionist Party, the Ulster Unionist Party, and other smaller parties such as the Progressive Unionist Party and the United Kingdom Unionist Party; nationalist parties like Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP); and cross-community parties such as the Alliance Party and the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition.

The Ulster Unionist Party were historically a cross-class massenpartei who ran a one-party Northern Ireland Government from its creation until 1972, although since the rise of the DUP in the 1970s their support has been more middle-class. Until 1972 the UUP's members of the House of Commons took the Conservative Party whip, although for the past 32 years they have sat as a party in their own right. The UUP's member of the European Parliament belongs to the European Democrats Group.

The DUP are a more complex mixture than the other major parties — combining support from rural evangelicals and from urban, secular, working-class voters. The party is firmly to the right on issues such as abortion, capital punishment, European integration and equal opportunities (although the party seems to be moderating its stance on gay rights since the "Ulster says No to Sodomy" campaign of the '80s). Conversely, the DUP often support social programmes which benefit their working class or agricultural base, for example, free public transport for the elderly and European Union agricultural subsidies. The DUP have grown in recent years as they are the only major party to oppose the Good Friday Agreement. Their MEP, Jim Allister, sits as an Independent in the European Parliament, but is perceived to be close to the Independence and Democracy group.

The smaller Progressive Unionist Party and New Ulster Political Research Group are linked with the Ulster Volunteer Force and Ulster Defence Association respectively. The UK Unionist Party is essentially a one-man show led by Robert McCartney MLA for North Down.

Similarly, on the nationalist side of the political spectrum, Sinn Féin has overtaken the traditionally dominant SDLP in recent elections. Sinn Féin is a radical socialist revolutionary party, theoretically committed to espousing an all-Ireland socialist republic, and linked with the IRA. Sinn Féin is often described as the political wing of the IRA - the exact relationship between Sinn Féin and the IRA is not clear, with many people believing them to be one and the same, referring to them as "Sinn Féin/IRA" - it is however widely accepted that they had an overlapping leadership, at least until recently. Traditionally the party of the urban Catholic working-class and a number of republican rural areas, since the IRA ceasefires of the mid-1990s it has expanded its base considerably, and has overtaken the long-dominant SDLP in terms of vote share. Many of their opponents, especially more hardline republicans (such as Republican Sinn Féin), contend that its experience of government has blunted the party's revolutionary enthusiasm.

The SDLP are a nominally social democratic party and a full member of the Party of European Socialists and Socialist International. However, as the Northern Ireland party system is not based on socio-economic divisions, it inevitably attracts a wider spectrum of opinion and has a middle-class support base. The SDLP nominally support Irish unification, but reject utterly the use of violence as a means to that end. The SDLP has lost considerable support in the past decade, with the retirement of key figures such as former leader John Hume and deputy leader Seamus Mallon and the IRA's cessation of violence. The party has been torn between members who wish to follow a post-nationalist agenda focusing primarily on "bread and butter issues" (taxation, employment, education, health, etc) and those who wish to follow a more traditionalist nationalist campaign to challenge Sinn Féin. In March 2005 the party launched a major policy programme on working to a united Ireland, suggesting that it has now opted to focus on traditional issues of identity (Irish or British, unionist or nationalist) than on economic or social issues.

Among the cross-community parties, the Alliance Party draws its support mainly from middle-class professionals in the suburbs of Belfast. It professes to be the only significant party which does not base its political stance around the constitutional question. The party has strong links with the Liberal Democrats in Britain and is a member of the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party and Liberal International.

Other parties who contest elections in Northern Ireland include the Green Party, the Workers Party and the Northern Ireland branch of the Conservative Party. The feminist Northern Ireland Women's Coalition briefly held seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly, but have now lost both those and their only local Councillor and seem to be in jeopardy. Ulster Third Way is a small grouping advocating independence for Northern Ireland.

Fianna Fáil, the dominant party in the Republic, has recently opened a cumann (branch) in Derry, and begun recruiting at Queens University Belfast. The leadership as of 2005 has decided not to take part in electoral politics in Northern Ireland. Some, within both Fianna Fáil and the SDLP (including former SDLP European Elections candidate Martin Morgan) have advocated an alliance, or even a merger, between both parties. However many in both parties are hostile to the idea, with some in the SDLP pointing out to the left-wing links between the party and the Irish Labour Party. Others in the SDLP are also closer to the Republic's second biggest party, Fine Gael and oppose a merger with that party's rival, Fianna Fáil.

Some commentators believe there are indications that the religious and ethnic basis of the party system may start to disintegrate. For example, in the 1998–2003 Assembly, there was a Catholic Member of the Legislative Assembly sitting for the Ulster Unionist Party. The SDLP have had a number of Protestant representatives in the past. A Protestant SDLP councillor recently defected to Sinn Féin. Up to now, these have been one-off events, which have occurred periodically throughout Northern Ireland's history without setting a trend — cf Sir Denis Henry in the early part of the 20th century. In any event, social class is an important part of competition within the main ethnic political blocs, and class-based party structures in other established democracies have weakened since the end of the Cold War. Since the beginning of the peace process, most parties vote shares have declined, while the more radical Sinn Féin and hardline DUP have prospered. While many Protestants are Sinn Féin members (more so in the Republic), the DUP is not known to have any Catholics in its ranks.

Some observers counter that, in the long-term, the constitutional question may become less relevant due to the increasing role of the European Union, and therefore a less sectarian political system may develop.

See also

• List of political parties in the United Kingdom
• Political parties in the Republic of Ireland