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Redskins Rule

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The Redskins Rule is a spurious relationship[1] in which the results of National Football League (NFL) games correlated strongly with the results of subsequent United States presidential elections. Briefly stated, there was a strong correlation between the outcome of the last home game for the Washington Redskins (now known as the Washington Commanders) prior to the U.S. presidential election and the outcome of the election: when Washington won, the party of the incumbent president retained the presidency; when Washington lost, the opposition party won. This coincidence was noted by many sports and political commentators, used as a bellwether to predict the results of elections, and held true in every election from 1940 through 2000.

Since 2004, the rule appears to have become inverted, with the performance of Washington now forecasting the fate of the challenging party rather than the incumbent. For example, the 2016 and 2020 victories heralded the respective elections of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, while the 2004 and 2012 losses were followed up by the incumbents, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. However, Obama's election in 2008 followed a Washington loss, in accordance with the original rule.

History

The Redskins relocated from Boston to Washington, D.C. in 1937. Since then, there have been 19 presidential elections. In 17 of those, the following rule applied:

If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that won the previous election wins the next election and that if the Redskins lose, the challenging party's candidate wins.

The Redskins Rule was first noticed prior to the 2000 election by Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau.[2][3][4] That year, the Redskins would begin what would become a four-game losing streak with retrospect to the rule when they lost to the Tennessee Titans. George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in the Electoral College, but lost the popular vote. This would cause problems for the original version of the rule after the 2004 election.[4]

In 2004 election, the Redskins lost their last home game before the presidential election, indicating that the incumbent should have lost. However, President George W. Bush (the incumbent) went on to defeat John Kerry. Steve Hirdt modified the rule, establishing Redskins Rule 2.0:[5]

When the popular vote winner does not win the election, the impact of the Redskins game on the subsequent presidential election gets flipped.

This changed the rule to be based on the popular vote outcome, as if Washington wins and the party that won the prior popular vote wins the election, the rule would be upheld, as it would if both lost.

In the election in 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote while Bush won the electoral vote, and thereby the revised Redskins Rule was upheld for the 2004 election.

In the 2008 election, the Redskins lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, predicting a win for U.S. Senator from Illinois Barack Obama over U.S. Senator from Arizona John McCain, because George W. Bush won the popular vote in the previous election.[6]

Prior to the 2012 election, the Redskins lost against the Carolina Panthers on November 4. The Redskins Rule predicted an outright loss for incumbent Barack Obama against challenger Mitt Romney, or that Obama would win the popular vote but lose via the Electoral College.[7] However, incumbent Barack Obama won the election with 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206,[8] held the advantage in the popular vote by more than 4.7 million votes, and the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2012.

In 2016, the Redskins played their last designated home game prior to the election on October 16, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 27–20. This outcome predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party, which was in power. Clinton's loss to Republican challenger Donald Trump in the election meant that the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2016 despite Clinton winning the popular vote.

The rule typically does not count the team's time playing in Boston (1932–1936). The team competed as the Boston Braves in 1932 when they won 19–6 over the Staten Island Stapletons. This game does not conform to the rule, as Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated incumbent Herbert Hoover in that election. However, in 1936, the first election year the team competed under its longtime nickname, they defeated the Chicago Cardinals and the incumbent Democratic president, Roosevelt, went on to win re-election.

It is unknown as to what the status of the rule would be if the final game ended in a tie, since the rule does not account for the last home game ending in a tie. However, as a tied game would end without a winner, it could be that the rule would be upheld if the election has no winner (meaning neither candidate gets the needed 270 electoral votes).

Results

Year Electoral vote result[9] Redskins
(score) 		Opponent
(score) 		Redskins
result 		Incumbent
popular vote
party
result 		Rule
upheld? 		Popular vote winner
1932 Roosevelt defeats Hoover 472–59 Boston Braves 19 Staten Island Stapletons 6 Win Lose No Roosevelt
1936 Roosevelt defeats Landon 523–8 Boston Redskins 13 Chicago Cardinals 10 Win Win Yes Roosevelt
1940 Roosevelt defeats Willkie 449–82 Redskins 37 Pittsburgh Steelers 10 Win Win Yes Roosevelt
1944 Roosevelt defeats Dewey 432–99 Redskins 14 Cleveland Rams 10 Win Win Yes Roosevelt
1948 Truman defeats Dewey & Thurmond 303–189–39 Redskins 59 Boston Yanks 21 Win Win Yes Truman
1952 Eisenhower defeats Stevenson 442–89 Redskins 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Lose Lose Yes Eisenhower
1956 Eisenhower defeats Stevenson 457–73 Redskins 20 Cleveland Browns 9 Win Win Yes Eisenhower
1960 Kennedy defeats Nixon 303–219 Redskins 10 Cleveland Browns 31 Lose Lose Yes Kennedy
1964 Johnson defeats Goldwater 486–52 Redskins 27 Chicago Bears 20 Win Win Yes Johnson
1968 Nixon defeats Humphrey & Wallace 301–191–46 Redskins 10 New York Giants 13 Lose Lose Yes Nixon
1972 Nixon defeats McGovern 520–17 Redskins 24 Dallas Cowboys 20 Win Win Yes Nixon
1976 Carter defeats Ford 297–240 Redskins 7 Dallas Cowboys 20 Lose Lose Yes Carter
1980 Reagan defeats Carter 489–49 Redskins 14 Minnesota Vikings 39 Lose Lose Yes Reagan
1984 Reagan defeats Mondale 525–13 Redskins 27 Atlanta Falcons 14 Win Win Yes Reagan
1988 G. H. W. Bush defeats Dukakis 426–111 Redskins 27 New Orleans Saints 24 Win Win Yes G. H. W. Bush
1992 B. Clinton defeats G. H. W. Bush 370–168 Redskins 7 New York Giants 24 Lose Lose Yes B. Clinton
1996 B. Clinton defeats Dole 379–159 Redskins 31 Indianapolis Colts 16 Win Win Yes B. Clinton
2000 G. W. Bush defeats Gore 271–266 Redskins 21 Tennessee Titans 27 Lose Lose Yes Gore
2004 G. W. Bush defeats Kerry 286–251 Redskins 14 Green Bay Packers 28 Lose Lose Yes G. W. Bush
2008 Obama defeats McCain 365–173 Redskins 6 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Lose Lose Yes Obama
2012 Obama defeats Romney 332–206 Redskins 13 Carolina Panthers 21 Lose Win No Obama
2016 Trump defeats H. Clinton 304–227 Redskins 27 Philadelphia Eagles 20 Win Lose No H. Clinton
2020 Biden defeats Trump 306–232 Washington 25 Dallas Cowboys 3 Win Win Yes Biden

See also

References

  1. ^ Bruce, Peter C. (2014-12-03). Introductory Statistics and Analytics: A Resampling Perspective. John Wiley & Sons. p. xvii. ISBN 9781118881668.
  2. ^ Hofheimer, Bill (October 30, 2012). "'Redskins Rule': MNF's Hirdt on intersection of football & politics". ESPN. Retrieved October 16, 2016.
  3. ^ Manker, Rob (November 7, 2012). "Redskins Rule: Barack Obama's victory over Mitt Romney tackles presidential predictor for its first loss". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  4. ^ a b Pohl, Robert S. (2013-08-20). Urban Legends & Historic Lore of Washington. The History Press. pp. 78–80. ISBN 9781625846648.
  5. ^ Katzowitz, Josh (November 1, 2012). "A Redskins victory vs. Panthers means Obama wins, loss means Romney wins". CBS News. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  6. ^ "Obama elected after Redskins omen". BBC News. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  7. ^ Krieg, Gregory J. (November 5, 2012). "'Redskins Rule' Points to Romney Victory". ABC News. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  8. ^ "President Barack Obama wins Florida, topping Romney in final electoral vote tally 332 to 206". Washington Post. November 10, 2012. Archived from the original on November 11, 2012. Retrieved November 10, 2012.
  9. ^ "Electoral College Results". Archives.gov. Retrieved October 4, 2020.
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