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2024 Atlantic hurricane season

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2024 Atlantic hurricane season
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedNone yet
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Seasonal statistics
Total fatalitiesUnknown
Total damageUnknown
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, and ends on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean. Many major forecasting agencies have predicted a well above-average season.

Seasonal forecasts

Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
Average (1991–2020) 14.4 7.2 3.2 [1]
Record high activity 30 15 7† [2]
Record low activity 1 0† 0† [2]
TSR December 11, 2023 20 9 4 [3]
CSU April 4, 2024 23 11 5 [4]
MFM April 5, 2024 21 11 N/A [5]
TSR April 8, 2024 23 11 5 [6]
UA April 8, 2024 21 11 5 [7]
MU April 12, 2024 26 11 5 [8]
NCSU April 16, 2024 15–20 10–12 3–4 [9]
UPenn April 24, 2024 33 N/A N/A [10]
SMN May 6, 2024 20–23 9–11 4–5 [11]
UKMO* May 22, 2024 22 12 4 [12]
NOAA May 23, 2024 17–25 8–13 4–7 [13]
TSR May 30, 2024 24 12 6 [14]
CSU June 11, 2024 23 11 5 [15]
Actual activity 0 0 0
* June–November only
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year.[16]

According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units.[1][17] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[1]

Pre-season forecasts

On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2024 season, predicting an above-average season with 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.[nb 1][3] They took into account ongoing warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) throughout most of the basin, specifically in the Main Development Region and in the Caribbean Sea on top of the 2023–2024 El Niño event which was predicted to weaken to a neutral phase by August 2024.[3] TSR updated their forecast on May 30, predicting 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes with an ACE of 226 units.[14] On April 4, 2024, Colorado State University (CSU) released its forecast, calling for an extremely active hurricane season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index of 210 units, citing the extremely warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of a La Niña by the summer.[4] On April 5, Météo-France (MFM) issued a prediction of 21 named storms and 11 hurricanes. They cited warm sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and humidity.[5] On April 8, TSR updated their prediction, predicting 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 217 units. They predicted that moderate La Niña conditions would occur in the summer and persist into fall and above average sea surface temperatures would also persist into summer.[6] On the same day, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for a very active season featuring 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 156 units.[7] On April 12, University of Missouri (MU) issued their prediction of 26 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.[8] On April 16, NCSU issued their prediction of 15–20 named storms, 10–12 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes.[9] On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (±6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming.[10] On May 6, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued their forecast of 20–23 tropical storms, 9–11 hurricanes, and 4–5 major hurricanes.[11] On May 22, UKMO published their forecast for the 2024 season, calling for 22 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 212 units.[19] One day later, NOAA published their hurricane season prediction, forecasting an above-average season of 17–25 named storms, 8–13 hurricanes, and 4–7 major hurricanes with an 85% chance of being an above-average season.[13]

Seasonal summary

Early activity

Though the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, it got off to the slowest start since 2014. This was due to a large stationary heat dome over Central America and Mexico, as tropical cyclogenesis in June often occurs over the Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean Sea.[20] Later that month, however, Potential Tropical Cyclone One was designated over the Bay of Campeche on June 17, following multiple days of a low-pressure area associated with the Central American Gyre being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).[21]

Systems

Potential Tropical Cyclone One

Template:Infobox weather event/CurrentTemplate:Infobox weather event/live
Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Satellite image of Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Satellite image
 Forecast map for Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Forecast map

On June 12, the NHC began monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the western Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development.[22] Then on June 17, a low-pressure area formed from this system, over the Bay of Campeche.[23] It became better organized later that day, and was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One.[24]

Current storm information

As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (18:00 UTC) June 18, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is located within 75 nautical miles of 22°00′N 92°36′W / 22.0°N 92.6°W / 22.0; -92.6 (One), about 355 miles (570 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 405 miles (655 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph (65 km/h), with gusts up to 50 mph (85 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 999 mbar (29.50 inHg), and the system is moving north-northeast at 6 mph (9 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center.[25][26][27]

Watches and warnings

Template:HurricaneWarningsTable

Storm names

Main articles: Tropical cyclone naming, History of tropical cyclone naming, and List of historical tropical cyclone names

The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2024.[28] This is the same list used in the 2018 season, with the exceptions of Francine and Milton, which replaced Florence and Michael, respectively.[29]

  • Alberto (unused)
  • Beryl (unused)
  • Chris (unused)
  • Debby (unused)
  • Ernesto (unused)
  • Francine (unused)
  • Gordon (unused)
  • Helene (unused)
  • Isaac (unused)
  • Joyce (unused)
  • Kirk (unused)
  • Leslie (unused)
  • Milton (unused)
  • Nadine (unused)
  • Oscar (unused)
  • Patty (unused)
  • Rafael (unused)
  • Sara (unused)
  • Tony (unused)
  • Valerie (unused)
  • William (unused)

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher—1-minute sustained winds higher than 110 miles per hour (178 km/h)—on the Saffir–Simpson scale are described as major hurricanes.[18]

References

  1. ^ a b c "Background Information: North Atlantic Hurricane Season". College Park, Maryland: Climate Prediction Center. April 9, 2021. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
  2. ^ a b "North Atlantic Ocean Historical Tropical Cyclone Statistics". Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. Archived from the original on June 4, 2023. Retrieved July 18, 2023.
  3. ^ a b c Wood, Nick (December 11, 2023). "Extended Range Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024" (PDF). Tropical Storm Risk. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 11, 2023. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
  4. ^ a b Klotzbach, Phil (April 4, 2024). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2024" (PDF). Colorado State University. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 4, 2024. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  5. ^ a b "Bulletin technique des prévisions d'activité cyclonique de la saison 2024". Météo-France (in French). April 4, 2024. Archived from the original on April 18, 2024. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  6. ^ a b Lea, Adam (April 8, 2024). "Extended Range Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024" (PDF). Tropical Storm Risk. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 8, 2024.
  7. ^ a b Davis, Kyle; Zeng, Xubin (April 8, 2024). "Forecast of the 2024 Hurricane Activities over the North Atlantic". Tucson, Arizona: University of Arizona. Archived from the original on April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 8, 2024.
  8. ^ a b Weaver, Sarah; Schwent, Thomas; Sadeghi, Atabak; Renken, Joe; Lupo, Tony. "Atlantic Ocean Basin Tropical Forecast 2024" (PDF). University of Missouri. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 25, 2024. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
  9. ^ a b Xie, Lian; Peake, Tracey (April 16, 2024). "NC State Researchers Predict Active Hurricane Season". Raleigh, North Carolina: NC State News. Archived from the original on April 17, 2024. Retrieved April 16, 2024.
  10. ^ a b Magubane, Nathi (April 24, 2024). "2024 Tropical Cyclone Prediction". Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: University of Pennsylvania. Archived from the original on April 24, 2024. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
  11. ^ a b "Temporada de Ciclones Tropicales 2024". Mexico City, Mexico: Gobierno de Mexico. May 6, 2024. Archived from the original on May 7, 2024. Retrieved May 7, 2024.
  12. ^ "North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2024". The United Kingdom Met Office. May 22, 2024. Archived from the original on May 22, 2024. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  13. ^ a b "NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
  14. ^ a b Lea, Adam (May 30, 2024). "Pre-Season Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024" (PDF). Tropical Storm Risk. Archived (PDF) from the original on May 30, 2024. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
  15. ^ Klotzbach, Phil (June 11, 2024). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2024" (PDF). Colorado State University. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 11, 2024. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  16. ^ Klotzbach, Philip; Blake, Eric; Camp, Joanne; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Chan, Johnny C.L.; Kang, Nam-Young; Kuleshov, Yuri; Lee, Sai-Ming; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Saunders, Mark; Takaya, Yuhei; Vitart, Frederic; Zhan, Ruifen (September 2019). "Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting". Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 8 (3): 134–149. doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.003.
  17. ^ Masters, Jeff (April 4, 2024). "Forecasters predict an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season". Yale Climate Connections. Archived from the original on June 1, 2024. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  18. ^ "Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on June 20, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  19. ^ "North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2024". The United Kingdom Met Office. May 22, 2024. Archived from the original on May 22, 2024. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  20. ^ Sistek, Scott (June 5, 2024). "Atlantic hurricane season off to slowest start in a decade: Will aggressive forecasts still hold?". FOX Weather. Retrieved June 6, 2024.
  21. ^ Masters, Jeff; Henson, Bob (June 18, 2024). "Tropical storm warnings up for Texas and Mexico for Potential Tropical Cyclone 1". New Haven, Connecticut: Yale Climate Connections. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  22. ^ Kelly, Larry (June 12, 2024). Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  23. ^ Beven, Jack (June 17, 2024). Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  24. ^ Beven, Jack (June 17, 2024). Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  25. ^ Berg, Robbie (June 18, 2024). Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 4A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  26. ^ Berg, Robbie (June 18, 2024). Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Advisory Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  27. ^ Berg, Robbie (June 18, 2024). Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  28. ^ Gay, Nancy (April 4, 2024). "Hurricane names 2024: Here's why the list may look familiar". Tampa, Florida: WTVT. Archived from the original on April 10, 2024. Retrieved April 10, 2024.
  29. ^ "Florence and Michael retired by the World Meteorological Organization". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. March 20, 2019. Archived from the original on March 20, 2019. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
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