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2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election

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2024 Porto Alegre municipal election
← 2020 6 October 2024 (2024-10-06) (first round)
27 October 2024 (2024-10-27) (second round, if necessary)		 2028 →
Mayoral election
Opinion polls
Incumbent Mayor

Sebastião Melo
MDB



Parliamentary election
Party Leader Current seats
Municipal Chamber
FE Brasil — 6
MDB Pablo Melo 4
PSOL Karen Santos 4
PSDB-Cidadania — 4
Republicanos Alvoni Medina 3
PL Fernanda Barth 3
PDT Márcio Bins Ely 2
PODE Giovane Byl 2
PP Mônica Leal 2
NOVO Tiago Albrecht 2
PSB Airto Ferronato 1
PSD Cláudia Araújo 1
Solidarity Claudio Janta 1
UNIÃO Cláudio Conceição 1

The 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election will take place in the city of Porto Alegre, Brazil on 6 October 2024. Voters will elect a mayor, a vice mayor, and 36 councillors. The incumbent mayor, Sebastião Melo, a member of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), was elected in 2020[1] for his first term and intends to run for re-election.[2] If the most voted candidate on the first round doesn't achieve more than 50% of the votes, a second round will happen on 27 October 2024. The mayor's term will begin on 1 January 2025 and end on 31 December 2028.[3]

Background

2020 Porto Alegre mayoral election

The last mayoral election in Porto Alegre, held in 2020, resulted in the victory of the lawyer and politician Sebastião Melo in the second round. Melo obtained 370,550 votes (54.63% of the valid votes) against the 307,745 votes (45,37% of the valid votes) obtained by his opponent, Manuela d'Ávila (PCdoB).[1]

Approval ratings and 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods

In a poll conducted in the end of March 2024, Melo's government was approved by 58% of the citizens of Porto Alegre, making him the front-runner in most of the election scenarios.[4] However, after the 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods that happened in the end of April to May, that also affected the city of Porto Alegre, his lead in polls may be contested. One of the main themes of the 2024 elections will be the reconstruction of the city that is still flooded. The city's protection against floods are responsibility of the mayor of Porto Alegre and during the electoral campaign, his opponents may question his leadership and decisions that've been taken by his government during the floods.[5]

Possible postponement

There was a debate among national political forces about a possible postponement of the elections due to the floods in the state. However, the president of the Superior Electoral Court, Alexandre de Moraes, confirmed on 21 May 2024 that there is no discussions about a postponement. He states that there was no structural damage to the Regional Electoral Court of Rio Grande do Sul and to the electoral courts that would prevent the election from being held in the month of October throughout the state and in the city of Porto Alegre.[6]

Electoral calendar

Electoral calendar announced by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on 3 January 2024[7]
7 March – 5 April Period of the 'party window' for councillors. During this period, the councillors are able to move to other political parties in order to run for election while not losing their respective political terms.
6 April Deadline for all parties and party federations to obtain the registration of their statutes at the Superior Electoral Court and for all candidates to have their electoral domicile in the constituency in which they wish to contest the elections with the affiliation granted by the party.
15 May Start of the preliminary fundraising campaign in the form of collective financing for potential candidates. During this period, candidates are not allowed to ask for votes and are still subjected to obey the rules regarding electoral propaganda on the Internet.
20 July – 5 August On this date, party conventions begin to deliberate on coalitions and choose candidates for mayors and councillors tickets. Parties have until 15 August to register their names with the Brazilian Election Justice.
16 August Beginning of electoral campaigns on an equal basis, with any advertising or demonstration explicitly requesting for votes before the date being considered irregular and subject to fines.
30 August –3 October Broadcasting of free electoral propaganda on radio and television.
6 October Date of mayoral elections.
27 October Date of a possible second round in cities with more than 200,000 voters in which the most voted candidate for mayor has not reached 50% of the valid votes.

Candidates

Presumptive candidates

Party Mayoral candidate Running mate Coalition

Workers' Party
(PT 13) 		Maria do Rosário
Socialism and Liberty Party
(PSOL) 		Tamyres Filgueira
  • Black Movement Activist

Brazilian Democratic Movement
(MDB 15) 		Sebastião Melo
Liberal Party
(PL) 		Betina Worm

Potential candidates

Democratic Labour Party (PDT)

  • Juliana Brizola – Member of the Legislative Assembly of Rio Grande do Sul (2011–2023); Councillor of Porto Alegre (2009–2011).[14]

Brazil Union (UNIÃO)

  • Thiago Duarte – Member of the Legislative Assembly of Rio Grande do Sul (2019–present) and Councillor of Porto Alegre (2008; 2011–2018).[14]

Cidadania

  • Any Ortiz – Member of the Chamber of Deputies from Rio Grande do Sul (2023–present); Member of the Legislative Assembly of Rio Grande do Sul (2015–2023) and Councillor of Porto Alegre (2013–2014).[15]

New Party (NOVO)

  • Felipe Camozzato – Member of the Legislative Assembly of Rio Grande do Sul (2023–present) and Councillor of Porto Alegre (2017–2023).[13]

Social Democratic Party (PSD)

  • Cláudia Araújo – Councillor of Porto Alegre (2019–present).[16][13]

United Socialist Workers' Party (PSTU)

  • Fabiana Sanguiné – Nursing assistant and union organizer.[17]

Withdrawn candidates

Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL)

  • Luciana Genro – Member of the Legislative Assembly of Rio Grande do Sul (1995–2003; 2019–present) and member of the Chamber of Deputies from Rio Grande do Sul (2003–2011); she withdrew her candidacy on 2 March 2024 and will support Maria do Rosário's candidacy along with the party and the PSOL REDE Federation.[8]

Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB)

  • Nadine Anflor – Member of the Legislative Assembly of Rio Grande do Sul (2023–present).[18]

Liberal Party (PL)

  • Comandante Nádia – Councillor of Porto Alegre (2017–present).[15]
  • Luciano Zucco – Member of the Chamber of Deputies from Rio Grande do Sul (2023–present) and Member of the Legislative Assembly of Rio Grande do Sul (2019–2023).[19]

Both Nádia and Zucco's candidacies were automatically withdrawn by the Liberal Party of Porto Alegre when the party nominated Betina Worm as the running mate of Sebastião Melo.[9][10]

Outgoing Municipal Chamber

The result of the last municipal election and the current situation in the Municipal Chamber is given below:

Affiliation Members +/–
Elected[20] Current[21][a]
MDB 3 4 Increase1
PT 4 4 Steady
PSOL 4 4 Steady
PL 1 3 Increase2
Republicanos 2 3 Increase1
PSDB 4 3 Decrease1
PODE 0 2 Increase2
PCdoB 2 2 Steady
PDT 2 2 Steady
PP 2 2 Steady
NOVO 2 2 Steady
UNIÃO didn't exist 1 Increase1
PSB 1 1 Steady
Cidadania 1 1 Steady
PSD 1 1 Steady
Solidarity 1 1 Steady
PRTB 1 0 Decrease1
PSL 1 extinct party[b] Decrease1
DEM 1 extinct party[c] Decrease1
PTB 3 extinct party[d] Decrease3
Total 36

Opinion polls

First round

2024

17 July The Liberal Party (PL) nominates Betina Worm as the running mate of Sebastião Melo (MDB).[9][10]
Pollster/client(s) Date(s)

conducted

Sample

size

Melo
MDB 		Rosário
PT 		Ortiz
Cidadania 		Nádia
PL 		J. Brizola
PDT 		Camozzato
NOVO 		Duarte
UNIÃO 		Sanguiné
PSTU 		Others Abst.
Undec. 		Lead
Futura Inteligência 17–21 June 800 28% 29.2% 5.8% — 10% 2.9% 5.1% — 3.1%[e] 15.7% 1.2%
27.2% 29.6% 8.9% — — 4.2% 6.5% — 5.9%[f] 17.7% 2.4%
25.3% 28.1% — 9.6% 10.1% — 7.9% — 4%[g] 15% 2.8%
Veritá 12–16 June 1,002 25.3% 15.4% 3.8% — 4% — 1.4% — 30.6%[h] 19.5% 6.2%
Atlas/CNN 9–14 June 1,798 24.8% 30.2% 9.1% 8.5% 8.2% 6.7% 1.3% 1.3% — 9.9% 5.4%
28.3% 31.8% — — 11.7% 9.1% 1.9% 1.5% — 15.7% 3.5%
29 April A severe flood hits the state of Rio Grande do Sul and the city of Porto Alegre,
resulting in the worst environmental disaster in the city's history.[25]
1 April Nadine Anflor announces the withdrawal of her potential candidacy for mayor of Porto Alegre.[18]
Pollster/client(s) Date(s)

conducted

Sample

size

Melo
MDB 		Rosário
PT 		Ortiz
Cidadania 		Nádia
PL 		J. Brizola
PDT 		Camozzato
NOVO 		Duarte
UNIÃO 		Nadine
PSDB 		Others Abst.
Undec. 		Lead
RealTime Big Data[4] 29–30 March 1,000 40% 22% 5% 4% 5% — 2% 2% 7%[i] 15% 18%
41% 22% — 5% 6% — 2% 2% 7%[j] 15% 19%
41% 26% 6% — — — 2% — 7%[k] 18% 15%
42% 26% — — 8% — 3% 3% — 18% 16%
2–22 March Luciana Genro withdraws her potential candidacy and decides to support Maria do Rosário (PT).[8]
Felipe Camozzato is announced as a potential candidate by the New Party (NOVO).[26]
Comandante Nádia leaves Progressistas (PP) in order to join the Liberal Party (PL).[27]

2023

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)

conducted

Sample

size

Melo
MDB 		Rosário
PT 		Genro
PSOL 		J. Brizola
PDT 		Duarte
UNIÃO 		Nadine
PSDB 		Pimentel
NOVO 		Cunha
PDT 		d'Ávila
PCdoB 		Others Abst.
Undec. 		Lead
Futura Inteligência 22–27 November 1,024 33.5% — — 4.7% — — 0.6% — 13.1% 34.2%[l] 14.1% 20.4%
36.1% 9.2% 6.6% — 9.2% 2.1% 0.3% 8.1% 14% — 14.4% 22.1%
43.6% — — 11.4% 10.7% — 0.5% — — 11.3%[m] 22.6% 32.2%
40.5% — — — 10.4% — 0.8% 8.8% 17.6% 6.1%[n] 15.9% 22.9%
Instituto Ver[28] 28 October–3 November 1,000 33% 27% — 7% 2% 1% 1% — — — 30% 6%
30% 24% 7% 7% 2% 1% 1% — — 2%[o] 28% 6%
31% 24% — 8% 2% 1% 1% — — 6%[p] 28% 7%
38% — — 9% 3% 1% 2% — — 13%[q] 34% 25%
36% — 7% 8% 2% 1% 2% — — 13%[r] 31% 25%
34% 23% 7% — 2% 1% 2% — — 2%[s] 28% 11%
Instituto Methodus[29] November 600 52% — — 13% 5% 3% 3% — — — 24% 39%
48% — 17% — 5% 3% 3% 4% — — 20% 31%
48% 25% — — 5% 3% 2% — — — 17% 23%
46% — — — 5% 4% 1% — 27% — 17% 19%
November Maria do Rosário is announced as a potential candidate by the Workers' Party (PT).[30]
Pollster/client(s) Date(s)

conducted

Sample

size

Melo
MDB 		Pretto
PT 		Lorenzoni
PL 		J. Brizola
PDT 		Fortunati
UNIÃO 		Marchezan Jr.
PSDB 		Ruas
PSOL 		Nádia
PP 		Camozzato
NOVO 		Others Abst.
Undec. 		Lead
Instituto Methodus 3–7 April 600 35% 14% 11% — 2% — 1% 1% — 16.7%[t] 18% 20%
Paraná Pesquisas[31] 22–26 March 806 31.8% 14.4% 8.3% 6.8% 6.2% 6.1% 5.6% 3.5% 2.4% 3.6%[u] 11.4% 17.4%
36.7% 16.5% — 7.9% — 8.2% 6.3% 6.2% 3.1% — 15% 20.2%
36.2% 16.4% 10% 8.8% — — 6.2% — 3% 4%[v] 15.4% 19.8%

Second round

These are the hypothetical scenarios of a second round.

Sebastião Melo and Maria do Rosário

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)

conducted

Sample

size

Melo
MDB 		Rosário
PT 		Abst.
Undec. 		Lead
Futura Inteligência 17–21 June 2024 800 47.2% 39.5% 13.3% 7.7%
Atlas/CNN 9–14 June 2024 1,798 43.7% 38.2% 18.1% 5.5%
RealTime Big Data[4] 29–30 March 2024 1,000 53% 33% 14% 20%

Sebastião Melo and Luciana Genro

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)

conducted

Sample

size

Melo
MDB 		Genro
PSOL 		Abst.
Undec. 		Lead
RealTime Big Data[4] 29–30 March 2024 1,000 55% 29% 16% 26%

Maria do Rosário and Any Ortiz

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)

conducted

Sample

size

Rosário
PT 		Ortiz
Cidadania 		Abst.
Undec. 		Lead
Futura Inteligência 17–21 June 2024 800 40.7% 35.1% 24.2% 5.6%

Rejection of candidates

In some opinion polls, the interviewee can choose more than one alternative (the so-called "multiple rejection"), therefore, the sum of the percentages of all candidates can exceed 100% of the votes in some scenarios.

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)

conducted

Sample

size

Rosário
PT 		Genro
PSOL 		d'Ávila
PCdoB 		Melo
MDB 		Duarte
UNIÃO 		Pimentel
NOVO 		Nadine
PSDB 		J. Brizola
PDT 		Could vote
in anyone 		Others Abst.
Undec.
Futura Inteligência 22–27 November 2023 1,024 36.5% 23.2% 29.6% 21% — — — — — 31.1%[w] —
Instituto Methodus[29] November 2023 600 33% 30% 29% 27% 14% 11% 11% 10% 26% 10%[x] 3%

Notes

  1. ^ Between March and April 2024, councilors were able to change parties during the so-called "party window" without losing their respective terms.[22]
  2. ^ Democrats (DEM) and the Social Liberal Party (PSL) merged into the Brazil Union in February 2022.[23]
  3. ^ Democrats (DEM) and the Social Liberal Party (PSL) merged into the Brazil Union in February 2022.[23]
  4. ^ Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) and Patriota merged into the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD) in November 2023.[24]
  5. ^ Luciano Zucco (PL)
  6. ^ Luciano Zucco (PL)
  7. ^ Nadine Anflor (PSDB)
  8. ^ Manuela d'Ávila (PCdoB) with 19.1%; Luciano Zucco (PL) with 9.5%; Nadine Anflor (PSDB) and Mari Pimentel (Republicanos) with 1% each
  9. ^ Luciana Genro (PSOL)
  10. ^ Luciana Genro (PSOL)
  11. ^ Luciana Genro (PSOL)
  12. ^ José Fortunati (UNIÃO) with 10.8%; Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) with 9.6%; Edegar Pretto (PT) with 9.1% and Pedro Ruas (PSOL) with 4.7%
  13. ^ Sofia Cavedon (PT) with 6.7% and Roberto Robaina (PSOL) with 4.6%
  14. ^ Sofia Cavedon (PT) with 4.5% and Roberto Robaina (PSOL) with 1.6%
  15. ^ Gustavo Victorino (Republicanos)
  16. ^ Fernanda Melchionna (PSOL) with 4% and Gustavo Victorino (Republicanos) with 2%
  17. ^ Sofia Cavedon (PT)
  18. ^ Sofia Cavedon (PT) with 11% and Gustavo Victorino (Republicanos) with 2%
  19. ^ Gustavo Victorino (Republicanos)
  20. ^ Manuela d'Ávila (PCdoB) with 15%; Any Ortiz (Cidadania) and Marcel van Hattem (NOVO) with 0.7% each and Luciano Zucco (Republicanos) with 0.3%
  21. ^ Luciano Zucco (Republicanos) with 1.9% and Beto Albuquerque (PSB) with 1.7%
  22. ^ Any Ortiz (Cidadania)
  23. ^ Onyx Lorenzoni (PL)
  24. ^ Vieira da Cunha (PDT)

References

  1. ^ a b "Porto Alegre/RS: Apuração em tempo real de prefeito no 2º turno". noticias.uol.com.br (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  2. ^ a b "Melo confirma na segunda-feira que será candidato à reeleição em Porto Alegre". GZH (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-04-10. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  3. ^ Veloso, Natália (2023-10-06). "1º turno da eleição 2024 será em 6 de outubro; leia principais datas". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  4. ^ a b c d "Pesquisa RealTime Big Data - Porto Alegre (28–29 de março de 2024)" (PDF). 2024-04-01. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  5. ^ "Tragédia no RS pode afetar favoritismo de prefeito de Porto Alegre na corrida pela reeleição". Estadão (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  6. ^ "Eleições 2024: Moraes afirma que não há previsão ou discussão sobre adiar votação no RS". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-05-21. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  7. ^ "Confira as principais datas do ano eleitoral de 2024". Tribunal Superior Eleitoral. 2024-01-03. Retrieved 2024-03-27.
  8. ^ a b c "PSOL abre mão de candidatura para apoiar PT na disputa de Porto Alegre". Brasil de Fato - Rio Grande do Sul (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-02-27. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  9. ^ a b c portoalegre24horas. "Habemus vice: PL indica tenente-coronel do Exército, Betina Worm para compor a chapa de Melo na capital". Terra (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-07-21.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  10. ^ a b c Oppitz, Taline (2024-07-17). "PL indica mulher militar para vice de Melo. POA tem duas chapas definidas". Correio do Povo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-07-21.
  11. ^ a b c d e Nabinger, Felipe (2024-04-15). "Eleições 2024: Sebastião Melo prega campanha "da paz" e desconversa sobre 2026 ao lançar pré-candidatura". Correio do Povo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-07-21.
  12. ^ Isaías, Cláudio (2024-07-21). "Podemos decide apoiar reeleição do prefeito Sebastião Melo". Jornal do Comércio (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-07-22.
  13. ^ a b c Suzin, Raphaela (2024-04-24). "Eleição em Porto Alegre: partidos disputam "turno zero"". Gazeta do Povo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  14. ^ a b Bemfica, Flavia (2024-03-14). "Eleições 2024: PDT, União, PSB e Avante fecham acordo em Porto Alegre". Correio do Povo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  15. ^ a b "Quem são os pré-candidatos a prefeito de Porto Alegre nas eleições municipais 2024". JOTA Info (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-05-23. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  16. ^ "Cláudia Araújo toma posse como vereadora do PSD". Câmara Municipal de Porto Alegre (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2019-07-16. Retrieved 2024-06-21.
  17. ^ "PSTU lança pré-candidatura de Fabiana Sanguiné à prefeitura de Porto Alegre". Brasil de Fato - Rio Grande do Sul (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2023-12-08. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  18. ^ a b "Após deputada Nadine desistir, PSDB busca um novo candidato para concorrer à Prefeitura de Porto Alegre | RDCTV - Rede Digital de Comunicação". rdctv.com.br. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  19. ^ Albuquerque (2024-02-19). "Conheça os possíveis pré-candidatos à Prefeitura de Porto Alegre". Terra (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  20. ^ "Porto Alegre/RS: apuração em tempo real de prefeito e vereador". noticias.uol.com.br (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  21. ^ "Câmara Municipal de Porto Alegre". Câmara Municipal de Porto Alegre. Archived from the original on 2024-05-30. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  22. ^ "Saldo da janela partidária é de nove mudanças na Câmara de Porto Alegre". Correio do Povo (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-04-05. Archived from the original on 2024-05-30. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  23. ^ a b "TSE aprova registro e estatuto do União Brasil, partido resultante da fusão entre DEM e PSL". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2022-02-08. Retrieved 2024-01-05.
  24. ^ Estado, Agência (2024-01-04). "Fusão entre Patriota e PTB gera 3º maior partido do País com 1,02 mi de filiados". Política (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-01-05.
  25. ^ "'It's going to be worse': Brazil braces for more pain amid record flooding". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2024-06-20.
  26. ^ Simões, Flávia (2024-03-07). "Eleições 2024: Novo lança pré-candidatura de Felipe Camozzato à prefeitura de Porto Alegre". Correio do Povo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  27. ^ Renkovski, Rafael (2024-03-22). "Eleições 2024: Comandante Nádia está migrando ao PL em Porto Alegre". Correio do Povo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  28. ^ "Porto_Alegre_outubro_vp_compressed" (PDF). 2023-11-03. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  29. ^ a b Sauer, José Carlos (2023-11-09). "Pesquisa eleitoral em Porto Alegre - O que já sabemos sobre a próxima eleição na capital". Methodus (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  30. ^ PODER360 (2023-11-25). "PT confirma Maria do Rosário como pré-candidata para Porto Alegre". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-30.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  31. ^ "Porto-Alegre_Midia" (PDF). Paraná Pesquisas. 2023-03-26. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
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