Talk:Climate change

Global Warming is a theory

The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

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This is addressed in the FAQ --TS 17:07, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

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It should state in the article that Global Warming is theory and not a solid fact as the article seems to suggest. Kluft (talk) 19:26, 14 December 2008 (UTC)

Global warming is a theory in the scientific sense, in that it is well supported and has survived numerous attempts at falsification. It is also a fact, in that thermometers don't lie. It would be doing our readers a major disservice to suggest otherwise. So thank you for your suggestion, but consider it rejected. Raul654 (talk) 19:29, 14 December 2008 (UTC)

Global warming is a theory that made its first scientifically testable prediction in 2001 in the IPCC report. That report predicted that temperatures would rise by 1.4-5.8C. This was the first scientifically prediction that was capable of being tested, and as the scientific method requires, whether it was "falsifiable" depends on how well its predictions compare with real data. (not against computer models). The question any decent scientist should ask themself, is "how good does this prediction of between 1.4-5.8C warming in 110 years appear to be". The answer is that far from warming, worldwide temperatures have fallen with a trend that suggests -1.4C of cooling. Whilst 7 years of cooling trend is too short to say conclusively the theory has been proven to be false, I think saying "it is well supported" is a slight overstatement to say the least, given the fact the prediction has singularly failed to predict even the sign of the temperature trend let alone its absolute size. 88.110.190.9 (talk) 10:56, 18 December 2008 (UTC)

Sorry, you have a logic failure. If the question is, how good does this prediction of between 1.4-5.8C warming in 110 years appear to be then the answer is "please wait for 103 years" William M. Connolley (talk) 12:01, 18 December 2008 (UTC)

Excellent consensus building. Kluft - the warming is a fact; the cause is what the theories address. Unfortunately many users are unable to understand this distinction. Jaimaster (talk) 23:18, 14 December 2008 (UTC)

This is a misdirection. This is far from being either the coldest or warmest time in the history of the Earth. Man's industrial contribution to the atmosphere is irrelevant. Consensus is not fact, and as a matter of fact, there is not an overwhelming majority of scientists that subscribe to the theory. I've found the linked PDF to be an excellent resource to back up my discussions and I'd like to include its charts in the article in some way: http://www.ncpa.org/globalwarming/GlobalWarmingPrimer.pdf Ryratt (talk) 19:57, 31 December 2008 (UTC)

Perhaps "thermometers don't lie", but an awful lot of them appear to be located in questionable places. On occasion, it appears that some data has simply been copied from one year to the next. And there are probably lots of other errors. Granted, the known errors are not enough to question the current cooling trend (over the last 7 years), or the longer warming trend (since 1980), but there are still a lot of monitoring sites that the skeptics haven't been able to survey. In addition, over 70% of the Earth is monitored by satellites and that data is highly questionable (according to NASA). Q Science (talk) 10:01, 15 December 2008 (UTC)

Can I rephrase the original statement.

Man made Global warming is accepted and can account for approximately +0.6 deg C. Catastrophic warming forecasts created by positive feedback is a theory.

And from this article which I take from the main page it makes the theory bunk. We can not have catastrophic warming with a run away effect at the same time we have cooling of the oceans.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/abs/nature06921.html

OxAO (talk) 22:43, 15 December 2008 (UTC)

What is your definition of "catastrophy"? See the FAQ. The current effects of global warming are already quite catastrophic, but very diffuse. "We're all going to die" is not something that is seriously suggested by the IPCC or any scientific organization I'm aware of. And the article you cite does not say that "the oceans are cooling", but that the sea surface temperatures in some areas may temporarily decrease very slightly. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:59, 15 December 2008 (UTC)

“This page is about the science of global warming. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe.”

“Climate model projections indicate that global surface temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century.”

These two statements are contradictory.

If the planet rises in temperature 1.1 deg C per hundred years then eventually the human race and ever living thing on the planet will die. The Earth will be a sister planet to Venus. Catastrophic Positive feedback theory is a run away effect it has no end to how high the temperatures will go.

From the article: “Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade”

This is again contradictory to the run away effect created by the positive feedback theory. A good example of positive feedback is turning a bowl upside down then put a ball on top of the bowl. Then you push the ball off the slope and the ball will pick up energy as it falls.

If we have cooling in the middle of the positive feed back that would mean the ball is no longer falling down the slope.

02:42, 16 December 2008 (UTC)

If this is a catastrophe id love to live in your utopia. Jaimaster (talk) 23:35, 15 December 2008 (UTC)

Just because it does not currently directly affect you or me does not mean it is not happening. That's why I asked about the definition of "catastrophe". Was the 1996 Everest Disaster a catastrophe? The Galtür Avalanche? The Collapse of the World Trade Center? Global warming has easily killed more people than either of these so far. What is more, we are currently living through a major extinction event that is at least partially caused and accelerated by global warming. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 00:00, 16 December 2008 (UTC)

Global warming has easily killed more than 2,753 people? Show me the body bags. To borrow a certain journalist's response to this sort of claim, "name just 10". Ill settle for a source for 10 deaths where the cause of death is undisputably "global warming". Jaimaster (talk) 00:49, 16 December 2008 (UTC)

Regarding the idea that "if warming happens then eventually every living thing on Earth will die", assuming it isn't clobbered with a doomsday asteroid at some point, eventually all life on Earth WILL be wiped out as our Sun changes. Long before it even incinerates the planet as it reaches red giantism, it will eliminate the oceans and make the planet incompatible with life. The planet is doomed whether we drive hybrid cars or not. Whether humans will have survived long enough to develop the technology to find another place to live and survive by that point is another question.TheDarkOneLives (talk) 06:37, 17 December 2008 (UTC)

Amphibians are the primary targets of the latest extension. Global Warming Link To Amphibian Declines is in Doubt

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081112113708.htm

03:31, 16 December 2008 (UTC)~ —Preceding unsigned comment added by OxAO (talk • contribs)

As you well know, few things are undisputable. Weather events are only probabilistically correlated with global warming. The 2003 European heat wave is generally considered to be at least partially caused by global warming, and has caused at last several thousand deaths. So has the 2006 European heat wave. And that is for major industrialized countries with an excellent infrastructure and easy access to good health services. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 01:12, 16 December 2008 (UTC)

There were never any heat waves before global warming? I find this argument hard to take seriously. If the Earth was cooler, the weather would certainly be different. But there will always be freak weather and people dying from it. CO2 is plant food, not a satanic gas. The idea that the natural temperature is perfect one is a form of natural worship. According to the graph of satellite date, the temperature is same now as it was in 1980.[1] Kauffner (talk) 02:04, 16 December 2008 (UTC)

Yes, there will always be freak weather. But one of the predictions of the IPCC is an increase in the frequency and severity of freak weather events. CO2 is both a toxic poison and a necessary component for life - as is Oxygen, by the way (if you ever dive on Nitrox, don't exceed an Oxygen partial pressure of 1.6 atm). It all depends on the concentration. CO2 is well below the direct toxicity level for humans (though not necessarily for certain corals), but it probably is much higher than it ever was in the Holocene, and it is rising faster than at any other time we can make reliable claims about. As for the "optimal temperature" red herring, see the FAQ. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 08:15, 16 December 2008 (UTC)

”But one of the predictions of the IPCC is an increase in the frequency and severity of freak weather events.”

Lets think about that for a second. For example: How are Hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico created? Real generally when there is a large difference in temperatures between the weather at the equator and the weather farther north. Right?

No offense, but -- wrong. Baroclinity (i.e., horizontal temperature contrast) produces vertical wind shear, which is well known to inhibit hurricane development. See e.g., here. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 05:38, 17 December 2008 (UTC)

If there is warmer weather in the north that would mean a more balanced temperature with the weather at the equator, in other words at it gets warmer there would be less sever storms.

There is no logic to their argument.

OxAO (talk) 05:13, 17 December 2008 (UTC).

Why do they claim as it gets warmer that there would be greater severity of the storms?

Mostly because of greater low-level humidity, promoting moist convective instability. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 05:38, 17 December 2008 (UTC)

There's a lot of logic to it -- providing you understand the physics. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 05:38, 17 December 2008 (UTC)

Id have said enhanced by rather than caused by myself. There is little doubt the extra temp made those heat waves kill more than they might have in say, 1950. How many? And how do they balance against a similarly extrapolated guesswork number of lives saved by warmer winters since 1980? :) In any case I still disagree on catastrophe. A positive feedback cycle kicking off would be a catastrophe, but we havnt seen that yet... as far as I am aware the numbers on extinctions are similar extrapolated guesses to the "death count" of AGW / salt / passive smoking / ozone depletion / DDT bans. No bodies, just guesses. Jaimaster (talk) 04:01, 16 December 2008 (UTC)

This article explains the difference between theory and fact quite well. Garycompugeek (talk) 23:54, 15 December 2008 (UTC)

If you smoke and you get lung cancer, then you still cannot prove that the smoking caused the lung cancer in your case. So, despite the fact that it is now undisputed that a large fraction of all lung cancer cases are caused by smoking, no one can point to any particular case of a lung cancer that was caused by smoking. Count Iblis (talk) 14:36, 16 December 2008 (UTC)

Exactly. What you can do, however, is look at the rate of cancer in non-smokers and smokers of similar demographic backgrounds and create an estimate. Any attempt to apply this to the rate of death by natural disaster since 1980 compared to before is going to be rendered completely meaningless by more modern disaster response greatly lowering the casualty numbers per similar disaster. Since AGW is caused by industrialisation, and modern disaster response is a result of industrialisation, AGW saves lives! (poor link, but amusing). Jaimaster (talk) 22:32, 16 December 2008 (UTC)

A lucid summary by David Evans of the case against man-made global warming - and why the theory still has its fierce propagandists:

From 1975 to 2001 the global temperature trended up. How do you empirically determine the cause of this global warming? ...

The signature of an increased greenhouse effect consists of two features: a hotspot about 10 km up in the atmosphere over the tropics, and a combination of broad stratospheric cooling and broad tropospheric warming…

We have been observing temperatures in the atmosphere for decades using radiosondes - weather balloons with thermometers… The radiosonde measurements for 1979-1999 show broad stratospheric cooling and broad tropospheric warming, but they show no tropical hotspot. Not even a small one. ..

Human carbon emissions were occurring at the time but the greenhouse effect did not increase. Therefore human carbon emissions did not increase the greenhouse effect, and did not cause global warming…

The only supporting evidence for AGW was the old ice core data. The old ice core data, gathered from 1985, showed that in the past half million years, through several global warmings and coolings, the earth’s temperature and atmospheric carbon levels rose and fell in lockstep. AGW was coming into vogue in the 1980s, so it was widely assumed that it was the carbon changes causing the temperature changes....

(But) by 2003 it had been established to everyone’s satisfaction that temperature changes preceded corresponding carbon changes by an average of 800 years: so temperature changes caused carbon changes… So the ice core data no longer supported AGW.

So if there is no evidence to support AGW, and the missing hotspot shows that AGW is wrong, why does most of the world still believe in AGW?

Part of the answer is that science changed direction after a large constituency of vested interests had invested in AGW… (S)cientists were being paid by governments to research the effects of human-caused global warming… AGW grabbed control of climate funding in key western countries… The alarmists are full time, well funded, and hog the megaphone.

DDB (talk) 23:52, 19 December 2008 (UTC)

< What is very clear to this reader is that messengers Kim D. Petersen, William M. Connolley, and Stephan Schulz have no tolerance for rational discussion on this subject. Unfortunately the gates they hope to hold shut are soon to overflow. The real data is showing cooling temperatures, cooling oceans, correlation with solar activity, not CO² and a larger collection of scientific minds questioning IPCC perspective. The climate is surely changing is this regard. > < mkurbo@comcast.net > Do your own research:

http://www.eworldvu.com/international/2008/9/10/melting-arctic-sea-ice-and-global-warming-hype.html

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/ —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.56.76.30 (talk) 02:19, 22 December 2008 (UTC)

I wont be suprised to see that comment deleted, but I must say (and me as a dirty sceptic to them, at that) until such a time as peer reviewed scientific literature says what the blogs say, this article will - quite rightly mind you - reflect the existing literature. Like you I am quite confident that the day will come that the existing versions of this article can be pulled out of the wiki logs for some /point /laugh, but that day is still years into the future.

If you really want to help, instead of posting talk page rhetoric, find AGW related articles and try and prune back the rubbish-based alarmist hysteria that occasionally creeps in. For example, if a certain hysteric's recent "research" about how merely burning coal will "very likely" turn Earth into Venus to creeps in, be around to make sure it gets put back into the trashcan it belongs in, per wp:undue. Jaimaster (talk) 03:56, 22 December 2008 (UTC)

Will Kim Peterson take this off as well ? Scientists Call AP Report on Global Warming 'Hysteria' Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Scientists skeptical of the assertion that climate change is the result of man's activates are criticizing a recent Associated Press report on global warming, calling it "irrational hysteria," "horrifically bad" and "incredibly biased." They say the report, which was published on Monday, contained sweeping scientific errors and was a one-sided portrayal of a complicated issue. "If the issues weren't so serious and the ramifications so profound, I would have to laugh at it," said David Deming, a geology professor at the University of Oklahoma who has been critical of media reporting on the climate change issue. In the article, Obama Left with Little Time to Curb Global Warming, AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein wrote that global warming is "a ticking time bomb that President-elect Barack Obama can't avoid," and that "global warming is accelerating." Deming, in an interview, took issue with Borenstein's characterization of a problem he says doesn't exist. "He says global warming is accelerating. Not only is it continuing, it's accelerating, and whether it's continuing that was completely beyond the evidence," Deming told FOXNews.com. "The mean global temperature, at least as measured by satellite, is now the same as it was in the year 1980. In the last couple of years sea level has stopped rising. Hurricane and cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere is at a 24-year low and sea ice globally is also the same as it was in 1980." Deming said the article is further evidence of the media's decision to talk about global warming as fact, despite what he says is a lack of evidence. "Reporters, as I understand reporters, are supposed to report facts,"Deming said. "What he's doing here is he's writing a polemic and reporting it as fact, and that's not right. It's not reporting. It's propaganda. "This reads like a press release for an environmental advocacy group like Greenpeace. It's not fair and balanced." A spokesman for the Associated Press said that the news agency stands by its story. "It’s a news story, based on fact and the clearly expressed views of President-elect Barack Obama and others," spokesman Paul Colford told FOXNews.com in an e-mail. Michael R. Fox, a retired nuclear scientist and chemistry professor from the University of Idaho, is another academic who found serious flaws with the AP story's approach to the issue. "There's very little that's right about it," Fox said. "And it's really harmful to the United States because people like this Borenstein working for AP have an enormous impact on everyone, because AP sells their news service to a thousand news outlets. "One guy like him can be very destructive and alarming. Yeah it's freedom of speech, but its dishonest." Like Deming, Fox said global warming is not accelerating. "These kinds of temperatures cycle up and down and have been doing so for millions of years," he said. He said there is little evidence to believe that man-made carbon dioxide is causing temperature fluctuation. "It's silly to lay it all on man-made carbon dioxide," Fox said. "It was El Nino in 1998 that caused the big spike in global warming and little to do with carbon dioxide." Other factors, including sun spots, solar winds, variations in the solar magnetic field and solar irradiation, could all be affecting temperature changes, he said. James O'Brien, an emeritus professor at Florida State University who studies climate variability and the oceans, said that global climate change is very important for the country and that Americans need to make sure they have the right answers for policy decisions. But he said he worries that scientists and policymakers are rushing to make changes based on bad science. "Global climate change is occurring in many places in the world," O'Brien said. "But everything that's attributed to global warming, almost none of it is global warming." He took issue with the AP article's assertion that melting Arctic ice will cause global sea levels to rise. "When the Arctic Ocean ice melts, it never raises sea level because floating ice is floating ice, because it's displacing water," O'Brien said. "When the ice melts, sea level actually goes down. "I call it a fourth grade science experiment. Take a glass, put some ice in it. Put water in it. Mark level where water is. Let it met. After the ice melts, the sea level didn't go up in your glass of water. It's called the Archimedes Principle." He called sea level changes a "major scare tactic used by the global warming people." O'Brien said he doesn't discount the potential effects man is having on the environment, but he cautioned that government should not make hasty decisions. "There is no question that the Obama administration is green and I'm green, and there's no question that they're going to really take a careful look at what we need to do and attack problems, and I applaud that," O'Brien said. "But I'm really concerned that they're going to spend all the money on implementation of mitigation, rather than supporting the science." —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.56.76.30 (talk) 23:36, 28 December 2008 (UTC)

The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

Notable sceptic? Who is Dr Will Happer?

Who is Dr Will Happer? All over the web he's said to be a "noted energy expert and Princeton physicist" and to have published 200 papers. The claims then run: "In 1993, he testified before Congress that the scientific data didn't support widespread fears about the dangers of the ozone hole and global warming, remarks that caused then-Vice President Al Gore to fire him". But only in in October this year coming out and saying: "I have spent a long research career studying physics that is closely related to the greenhouse effect ... Fears about man-made global warming are unwarranted and are not based on good science." MalcolmMcDonald (talk) 00:11, 26 December 2008 (UTC)

He's an atomic physicist at Princeton. Despite his claims to the contrary, I can find no publications by him that are directly related to the physics of climate change. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:05, 26 December 2008 (UTC)

I'm pretty much satisfied with the standard model of Global Warming. So when I saw that someone called Dr. Will Happer had come out against it (admittedly, only published in the Daily Star), my first stop was this article. After all, there are a lot of people making money from doom and gloom on this subject, whereas Will Happer would appear to be an educated and neutral observer. He has nothing (obvious) to gain or lose from sharing with us his scientific view. Do I find any mention of Will Happer? No, but in the discussion page, I find there are 1,000s of others like him. It's difficult to have much confidence in an article that's written from only one point of view. (and it turns out that this is one of Wikipedia's top articles!!!!!!) MalcolmMcDonald (talk) 13:14, 26 December 2008 (UTC)

This article accurately reflects the information published in peer reviewed journals. Our core policies, including verifiability require that we must use reliable sources to support all of the information in the article. Wikipedia does contain information about the Oregon Petition mentioned elsewhere on this talk page right now, about the Scientific opinion on climate change, about individuals who have problems with parts of the IPCC consensus List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming, and about the Global warming controversy. All of these pages (except Oregon Petition, which is linked from the controversy article) are linked from this article, both in the text and in the box at the bottom. It's not that the article is trying to hide anything. It's just that we can't fit all of the content on all of the global warming related articles on one page, and that the huge amount of political controversy creates a huge number of posts on this talk page from people who are individually global warming skeptics. The fact that "facts" that do not appear in the peer reviewed literature show up here on the talk page, and not on the article, is a strength, not a weakness, of Wikipedia. - Enuja (talk) 16:21, 26 December 2008 (UTC)

Thankyou for the explanation. What you're describing looks like quite a serious weakness, with "paid lobbyists" for alarmism getting a free ride for their position, even if (when?) their work is not very convincing to other members of the scientific community. Not your fault. At least there could be a section "Opposition", guiding people to find the other articles that (rather badly) cover controversy. MalcolmMcDonald (talk) 17:48, 26 December 2008 (UTC)

Please take a look at the article, check the references - and then please point out the ""paid lobbyists" for alarmism" that are getting a "free ride".... If there are really such people there - then they most certainly have to be pruned. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 20:04, 26 December 2008 (UTC)

Just follow any of the references in this article. All of the "scientists" involved are, in effect if not in profession, "paid lobbyists for alarmism." James Hansen would be a prime example. He lobbies congress all the time. --GoRight (talk) 18:07, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

I find the background to this article quite unsettling. Placid conviction displaced by uncomfortable sceptism in pretty short order. MalcolmMcDonald (talk) 23:52, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

Age of the Earth

How is the age of the earth irrelevant when talking about the history of the temp of the earth? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Alex25 (talk • contribs)

This article isn't about the "history of the temp of the earth". Its about the recent climate change. The geological age of the Earth is irrelevant here. Climate over the period of time that you are referring to is quite beyond the scope of both the discussion on climate change, and the recent climate. For one because during much of this timeperiod, the Earth didn't even have an atmosphere that would be breathable to life as we know it. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 11:43, 27 December 2008 (UTC)

"global warming isn't real"

whenever I mention global warming to someone in conversation, they say it's not real and that 95% of greenhouse gas is water vapor. they also are all conservatives, I'm not sure how that ties in. this has nothing to do with the article, but can anyone give me a good comeback? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 70.160.102.57 (talk) 14:53, 28 December 2008 (UTC)

The facts behind this misunderstanding are described on this article page and on greenhouse gas and greenhouse effect. One comeback might be "Any normal risks from my driving aren't caused by the alcohol content in my blood, but increasing the alchohol content in my blood will result in problems with my driving." It's a silly and poor analogy, but it might work. For future reference, please use talk pages on articles for improving the article, not for talking about the subject. If you can't get the information you need from Wikipedia articles, try making a post on the reference desk. - Enuja (talk) 21:36, 28 December 2008 (UTC)

Correct them and say, Catastrophic warming forecasts are not real, but global warming is real.--OxAO (talk) 22:14, 28 December 2008 (UTC)

The best thing you can say is nothing at all. If someone stands for a certain point of view because their choice of political affiliation stands for the same, that person will rarely be swayed by such insignificant things as facts. This applies to both leftards and neocons equally... Jaimaster (talk) 05:11, 29 December 2008 (UTC)

The decent thing would be to admit that the other person has a point, and then to research the actual facts instead of quoting some wikipedia comeback.Plaasjapie (talk) 12:15, 9 January 2009 (UTC)

We're not in the business of advocacy here (either way). Referring someone to an encyclopedia probably may help because then they can research for themselves and see if the objection on water vapor stands up. If you're interested in advocacy the place to would be an advocacy website which would have canned (and one hopes, verifiable) responses. All that matters to us is that we reflect all significant reasoned scientific opinions on the matter. --TS 13:27, 9 January 2009 (UTC)

Graphs and charts at the head of the article

The temperature graphs at the head of the article are now out of date by half a decade, and a decade, respectively. This makes them misleading, as particularly with the global colder weather we've been having in the past two years, and advances in scientific techniques, they are no longer accurate representations of the issue. Shouldn't they be replaced with something more up-to-date and appropriate? 80.47.220.22 (talk) 13:25, 29 December 2008 (UTC)

The top graph goes to 2007. Since 2008 isn't over yet - i would say that its pretty up-to-date. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 13:53, 29 December 2008 (UTC)

The real misleading point is using the LIA as the start point of a graph illustrating anthropogenic global warming. Jaimaster (talk) 23:29, 29 December 2008 (UTC)

Its the point where the instrumental record begins, whats misleading in that? (and who is doing the misleading?) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 00:28, 30 December 2008 (UTC)

We lead with Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. yet to its right you can find a graph that shows a near 45* incline - from 1910. It looks quite impressive, but it is misleading, be it on purpose or by accident.

The second graphic also has an oddity. 1940-1980 is used as the reference period when it is neither the default at the site it was generated at, nor the usual ~1961-1990 more commonly used. Why was 40-80 chosen?

anthropogenic global warming redirects to this page, which is also interesting, given that we otherwise differenciate between "global warming" and its causes as facts and theory. Jaimaster (talk) 00:54, 30 December 2008 (UTC)

Bottom one, then, till 2004, five years out of date tomorrow. Think it's about time we got some new data, considering this is supposed to be a current issue. 80.47.220.22 (talk) 16:40, 30 December 2008 (UTC)

I agree that it would be good to update all charts and graphs until the end of 2008. Grundle2600 (talk) 14:34, 1 January 2009 (UTC)

this article reflects extreme bias and ignores critical data from 2006 to present. i.e. pier reviewed papers that discuss and document current glacial expansion, oceanic ice expansion, non rising of coastlines worldwide, past temperature variation (warmer periods than present), co2 non-correlation with temperature rise, the list goes on and on. in a nutshell, this article in no way resembles a rational unbiased appraisal of the topic, rather reflects the unfortunate manipulative and fadish nature of the human beast.

More recognition of dismissive reports and data

The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

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This question is addressed in the FAQ. --TS 00:12, 8 January 2009 (UTC)

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I understand Wiki pages are encylopedic and there is an effort to explain the topic. However, with this topic, the fact that there is a daily increase in dismissive reports by scientists, not political committees, must be highlighted. For example, the U.S. Sentate's recent report with a rambling title that includes Scientists Continue to Debunk “Consensus” in 2008

I hope I entered the data correctly.

In any event, the current article can go off on its merry way, but I would suggest that, very much like other Wiki articles, there be a strong statement that this is not a "consensus" law, even though proponents say it is. It is silly to match credentials and votes when discussing nature, but if we do that, then the global warming people are unarmed in a battle of wits. As it is, the poor students reading this page will not comprehend they are being programmed to accept a increasingly peculiar theory as a basis for governmental and economic decisions. The page moves from definition to propaganda.

In my research I noted that the Mann hockey stick graph is mathematically wrong, Hansen of NASA makes statements contradicted by his own department, that "Global Warming" equations never included solar activity (Much to the surprise of Columbia University,) that there had been an incredible increase in undersea volcanic activity, that the world is cooling (if not entering some sort of ice age,) sea levels are not rising out of control, and that there was global warming on Mars during the last solar activity, that the antarctic has been incredibly cold and ice is growing, contrary to talking heads on the news. Indeed, this year will be very cold, in general, as the flare activity was VERY low this year.

I understand you don't want arguments while defining a waning theory, but it is intellectually dishonest not to link to the powerful arguments dismissing the whole global warming construct. At least, the Europeans had the sense to change their complaints to the evils of "climate change" since the warming argument was becoming more absurd with each passing day.

To demonstrate, I looked up "creationism." Here is what Wiki reports: Creationism is the religious belief that humanity, life, the Earth, and the universe were created in their original form by a deity (often the Abrahamic God of Judaism, Christianity and Islam) or deities.[1] In relation to the creation-evolution controversy the term creationism is commonly used to refer to religiously-motivated rejection of evolution as an explanation of origins.[2] Clearly, a position was taken to effectively counter the theory.

Now, look at Global Warming, in addition to being misleading, the growing rejection of the theory, even by those falsely claimed to support it, is rendered irrelevant. First there is a clear definition, a statement of fact (that avoid the last 8 years of data and sets up a myriad of unsupported, non-scientific assumptions,) then there is the invocation of the silly IPCC, a mild recognition of variables (a minor variable is the sun ???), and the approval of unnamed societies. Then, there is a mention of "individual" scientists who are not part of the overwhelming majority, which the foot notes says is the opinion of a Royal Society. I suppose the logic is a group of people who sit around in a society, who are unnamed, and who profit from their own decisions are, somehow, more on top of things than leading scientists who put their reputationson the line. This approach to slanting the issue is not in error; it is intended. Some of these individuals are actually named in the report noted above and listed with their relevant and profound credentials.

To wit:

"Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 100 years ending in 2005.[1][2] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the temperature increase since the mid-twentieth century is "very likely" due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.[3][2] Natural phenomena such as solar variation and volcanoes probably had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from 1950 onward.[4][5] These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science,[6] including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.[7][8][9] While individual scientists have voiced disagreement with these findings,[10] the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agree with the IPCC's main conclusions.[11][12]

Finally, see the Royal Society's pages Dr. Carl Wunsch's (MIT) article that end with:

"Many scientists therefore rely upon numerical models of the climate system to calculate (1) the nature of natural variability with no human interference, and compare it to (2) the variability seen when human effects are included. This approach is a very sensible one, but the ability to test (calibrate) the models, which can be extraordinarily complex, for realism in both categories (1) and (2) is limited by the same observational data base already describe. At bottom, it is very difficult to determine the realism by which the models deal with either (1) or (2)

Thus at bottom, it is very difficult to separate human induced change from natural change, certainly not with the confidence we all seek. In these circumstances, it is essential to remember that the inability to prove human-induced change is not the same thing as a demonstration of its absence. It is probably true that most scientists would assign a very high probability that human-induced change is already strongly present in the climate system, while at the same time agreeing that clear-cut proof is not now available and may not be available for a long-time to come, if ever. Public policy has to be made on the basis of probabilities, not firm proof." http://royalsociety.org/page.asp?id=4688&tip=1

Another individual heard from. Funny how committees like to make pronouncements and never tell you who decided upon the decisions. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.213.246.18 (talk) 17:06, 30 December 2008 (UTC)

Senate reports have no value at all as a scientific source, find some proper sources and you will have a case. The rest of your points (Last 8 years show cooling, Mann's work been wrong, it's the sun, etc.) are no more than the same rebuted arguments that shouldn't be discussed here as this is not a forum for general discussion about global warming. All I'll say is that if you disagree with Mann's work you have many more reconstruction of past temperatures... --Seba5618 (talk) 21:21, 30 December 2008 (UTC)

It's worrying that this article makes global warming appear to be a done deal (even though, until coming here, I was entirely convinced by the "standard theory"). To reject the commentary of learned outside observers (as was explained to me over Dr Will Happer, above) on the basis "non-specialist, no peer-reviewed papers on topic" looks like a recipe for a distorted article. When this much money is being poured in and the doubts of specialists are career-damaging (must be, almost by definition), then editors have a tricky job writing a balanced article. But that's what we're here for. MalcolmMcDonald (talk) 11:30, 1 January 2009 (UTC)

The article reflects what reliable sources have to say about it, while mentioning the opinion of single voices (and linking to an article with their opinions). Giving more weight to these non-specialist, no peer-reviewed papers will break WP:UNDUE. Further, giving that none reliable source rejects the IPCC conclusions, the present inclusion of this minority viewpoints is already in violation of WP:UNDUE in my opinion. --Seba5618 (talk) 18:41, 1 January 2009 (UTC)

I change your link to regular square brackets. The "ref" tag is used for putting footnotes in the actual article.

< "Senate reports have no value at all as a scientific source, find some proper sources" – This is a inconsistent statement - Will some rational person here please explain why a Senate Report stating multiple papers/sources/scientists is not a proper source, but a IPCC Report which is just (if not more) as political is a proper source ? At least the Senate Report links you to each individual source sited so one can do their own research. > — Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.56.93.169 (talk) 20:15, 1 January 2009 (UTC)

It's not a senate report, but a Senate Committee Minority report. It's not commissioned by the senate (or the committee), it's not discussed there, and it has not been accepted there. But even if the full house unanimously had voted for it, it would still be a purely political document. The IPCC reports, even if you do not seem to know it, are scientific reports - and they, of course, link into the original scientific literature. Inhofe's piece of propaganda, on the other hand, contains people who cannot, in the most generous way, be considered scientists, and it misrepresents several of those that are - and indeed many of the scientists mentioned have protested against this misrepresentation of their work. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 09:21, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

Which explains how some users may dismiss Senate Reports, but the argument is fallacious. The Minority senate report is not some paper put together by illiterate senators but a carefully compiled document. It has a political background as the IPCC report does too. To suggest the IPCC is compiled by scientists and the Senate minority is not is to be misleading .. except as an explanation of how those who dismiss the report think. DDB (talk) 12:07, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

I'm a bit surprised that Inhofe is illiterate, although that does explain some things. The IPCC is written by a large group of recognized experts named in the reports. The documents go through several rounds of review. Reviewer comments and replies are available online. Many scientific organizations have endorsed the result. The US National Academy has performed independent in-depth research and endorses the IPCC. I'm sure you can point out who carefully compiled that Inhofe report and why he or she thinks that Nigel Lawson is a scientist? And how somehow 30 or so scientists were counted twice? And why several scientists object to the misrepresentation of their research? No doubt the careful compiler(s) know(s) more about the original researchers results than they know themselves...--Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:56, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

Senate minority reports are absolutely not reliable. This is already covered in the FAQ. Raul654 (talk) 16:08, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

Neither is this article if one wants to know the whole story. --GoRight (talk) 18:17, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

If people want to know the "whole story", they can go to Exxon's website (and the websites of Exxon's think-tank allies) and get all the denialist propaganda that is lacking from this article. Raul654 (talk) 22:50, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

So you admit the article is horribly biased by omission and that it doesn't tell the reader the "whole story"? I thought we were supposed to avoid that, go figure. --GoRight (talk) 23:06, 3 January 2009 (UTC)

The scope of this article is limited to the science of global warming. Wikipedia policy restricts us to information found in reliable sources; not propaganda masquerading as such. Misinformation from Exxon and its allies does not belong here. However, we do have articles on propaganda, Misinformation, and Climate change denial which would be perfectly appropriate venues for such material. If people want the "whole story" they are welcome to peruse those articles. Raul654 (talk) 19:31, 5 January 2009 (UTC)

Not so arbitrary eb

< Stephan – I’d like to object to your illiterate remark above on the grounds that this is supposed to be a place of thoughtful conversation. In any regard I have an issue with you (Schulz) and Raul654 misrepresenting the “U. S. Senate Minority Report: More Than 650 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims” with link as follows: [2008 Report[2]]

Mr. Schulz, you would have us believe that the Senate Minority Report has no value in debating this article and its signers are dubious in nature. I would think many of the 650 scientists and professionals would have issue with you in that regard and readers/users should review the list of signatories themselves. The point of this section is to reflect upon an ever growing volume of dissenting positions on AGW and how this fact is not adequately represented in the Wikipedia content on this subject. > < Mk >

< BTW Stephan – Are you saying the Inter GOVERNMENTAL Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is not a deriviative of the United Nations political and diplomatic body ? Just to understand, you’re saying there are no politics involved in this UN based governmental panel for those of us with less insight ? I would appreciate you going on record to clarify this - thanks. > < Mk > —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.56.76.30 (talk) 23:29, 2 January 2009

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a reliable source while both Minority and Majority reports from the US Senate Environmental and Public Works Committee are not reliable sources. Yes, the IPCC was formed by the UN, but it's duty is specifically to report on the status of science about climate change. It is specifically prohibited from suggesting policy, and senate committees are all about suggesting and arguing in favor of policy.

Also, please use colons to create indentation and please signing your posts to make reading the talk page easier on the rest of us. - Enuja (talk) 23:53, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

Sorry on not formatting properly... 68.56.76.30 (talk) 00:25, 3 January 2009 (UTC)

Let's see - which is credible? A propaganda piece written by staffers for a politiican who claims that global warming is a hoax created by the weather channel to get ratings, who recieves a great deal of money from the energy lobby; or the IPCC, which produces reports based on peer-reviewed scientific publications, whose authors are the most respected climatologists in the world. Hrm... that's a toughy... Raul654 (talk) 00:14, 3 January 2009 (UTC)

Raul654 – If you personally want to ride this Y2K wave onto the beach that is your prerogative. I’m more concerned with the young undecided minds reading these articles and evolving their thoughts. In this article;

Wikipedia is describing current increasing temperatures – which is no longer true.

Wikipedia is describing scientific consensus as accepted fact – which is not true.

Wikipedia is focusing on a statistical snapshot of climate variations – which should be in context with the greater geologic temperature record of earth, not isolated to underwrite this particular theory or belief.

There are many eloquent writers herein parsing words to effect their bias, but the intensity of this debate in itself deserves balance of information and a truly neutral article by Wikipedia. 68.56.76.30 (talk) 01:04, 3 January 2009 (UTC)

The Global warming controversy article does need serious improvement. If you want a neutral article about the intensity of the debate, by all means, please improve that article. It's just a function of the current organization and article size guidelines of Wikipedia that everything about Global warming can't fit on one page. So this general, introductory article properly links the interested reader to the controversy article and a ton of other related articles.

About your list of objections: although there appears to be a short-term cooling trend right now, it's also reasonably certain that recent warming was caused by anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases, and that that warming will pick back up again when the current short-term effects are over. There is a well accepted scientific consensus about what will happen and there are facts: observations about what has happened. Context is relevant, and if you want the context of the greater geologic temperature record of the earth, the appropriate article is linked right at the very top of this article! That's context if I've ever heard of it.

Normally, I cite sources when I state facts, but these facts you are complaining about are sourced in the article. If you find a reliable source that contradicts what the reliable sources used in this article are saying, by all means, please bring that source up here on the talk page. The article WILL change with new reliable sources. But without reliable sources disagreeing with the general data and interpretations presented in this article, this article will not change. - Enuja (talk) 01:25, 3 January 2009 (UTC)

Enuja Kim - I object to you removing my post. This is the type of bias that has Wiki in trouble. For the eager and balanced minds out there I want to debate you on the points above and your first reaction is to remove my posting ! 68.56.76.30 (talk) 21:26, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

Raul's [original edit to the FAQ] is interesting when it comes to gauging potential bias in this article... doubting anthropogenic causation is "eccentric". I wonder what that makes the majority of voters in that state, in his fine opinion. Jaimaster (talk) 00:02, 5 January 2009 (UTC)

Take it up on WP:RS/N if you are in disagreement. Senate blog reports aren't reliable sources, and it is a frequently asked question. As for eccentric, thats rather more neutral than stating that its a fringe viewpoint. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 08:31, 5 January 2009 (UTC)

Had you read the diff a bit more carefully, you would have seen that I said Inhofe's views are eccentric, not denialism in general. Inhofe has said that the earth is not warming (despite the fact that nobody - not even the deniers - deny this anymore) and that ground and satellite measurements confirm this (they don't). He said that global warming is a Big Lie, and a hoax created by the weather channel to get more viewers. He compared the head of the EPA to Tokyo Rose and the EPA to the Gestapo. I could go on but you get the idea. The first word I was going to write there was "extremist" but I thought "eccentric" was a bit more charitable. Raul654 (talk) 19:39, 5 January 2009 (UTC)

I read the dif as carefully as needed... the man might be a clown but the wording or even naming Inhofe was not neccessary to labelling senate reports not reliable sources. BTW, when do we add Greenpeace to the faq as unreliable for believing in santa? ;) (Jaimaster - at home and not logged in -) 58.175.180.53 (talk) 12:50, 6 January 2009 (UTC)

First let me point out that the illiterate senators were brought up by DDB. Also, I'm fine with "Stephan", but if you want to go with a more formal form of address, you might want to get it right. As for the substance: The report in question is not a "Senate Minority Report" but a "Senate Committee Minority Report". Contrary to the impression you seem to have, the report is not signed by 650 scientists. In fact, as far as I can make out, it is not signed by anybody in particular, although Marc Morano and Mathew Dempsey are listed as contacts. Neither of those is a scientist, both are staffers of Inhofe. The report consists of quote-mined material, used without knowledge or even against the explicit statements and comments of the original authors. There no a-priory assumption of reliability for a partisan political document. But moreover, this document is obviously put together with extreme sloppiness. It contains non-scientists, repeated entries, and plain nonsense. The only aim seems to have been quantity of entries, wether right or wrong. How someone can defend this is beyond me. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 14:00, 6 January 2009 (UTC)

You still haven't addressed the fallacy I pointed out, Stephen. Try not to get sidelined by the irrelevant. You dismiss the substance of the Inhofe report and yet accept unquestioningly the statements of people like [3] that really seem outrageous and unscientific. DDB (talk) 00:47, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

I fail to see the fallacy. Can you elaborate why it would be fallacious to distinguish between a carefully compiled scientific report by a large group of known and respected scientists, endorsed by a huge number of respected scientific organizations, and a political hack? And I unquestioningly accept what? Certainly not the blog you point to, not the article it refers to. I suspect you talk about Hansen's letter to Obama - did you even read the original one? And why do you think you know my reaction to it? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 01:18, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

I think the point DDB is trying to make is that if senate minority report is unreliable because it was written by a loony, so should anything written by other advocates in clown shoes... but the senate minority report is rejected because it really amounts to little more than a partisan advocacy op-ed, while the other loony is (supposed to be) a scientist. Still, id move to strike any direct references to Hansen here. Defending vandals, claiming Australia (sub 2% global GHG emissions) is ruining the world, "fixing" the past to enhance the warming trend... this guy is going off the rails. Jaimaster (talk) 03:20, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

The senate minority report is not a reliable source because it fails WP:RS. Reliable sources are credible published materials with a reliable publication process; their authors are generally regarded as trustworthy or authoritative in relation to the subject at hand.. In this case there wasn't a proper publication process nor the author is trustworthy in relation to the subject...as simple as that. --Seba5618 (talk) 17:18, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

Stephan, shouldn't your failure to understand the simple point mean that you should excuse yourself from further comment, allowing those that do to argue meaningfully? Why continue arguing when you don't get a simple point on the issue of a logical fallacy? DDB (talk) 12:49, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

Maybe you should specify your "simple point"? You make unjustified and just plain wrong claims about both the SCMR and the IPCC reports. Your argument seems to be "black is white, therefore building zebra strips to save pedestrians is a fallacy". Well, yes, ex falso quodlibet, but that is not a very useful argument. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:53, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

I'm about to close this discussion because we just seem to be going around and around trying to explain why we don't rely on a cherry-picked report written by the staffers of a US Senator. This is already covered in the FAQ and we're just wasting time. --TS 17:26, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

Easterbrook Abstract

I went to history to see the copyvio material that's been removed. It's either fraudulent, or it's significant to the discussion. In a nutshell, according to a paper in "Abstracts of American Geophysical Union annual meeting, San Francisco December, 2008" the world is cooling. Don J. Easterbrook is a geologist at the Department of Geology, Western Washington University. He has authored 8 books and 150 journal publications and first publicly predicted global cooling in 2001.

"GLOBAL, cyclic, decadal, climate patterns can be traced over the past millennium in glacier fluctuations, oxygen isotope ratios in ice cores, sea surface temperatures, and historic observations."

There have been at least 23 periods of climatic warming and cooling in the past 500 years, each one lasting an average of 27 years. Global cooling occurred from 1880 to ~1915; global warming occurred from ~1915 to ~1945; global cooling occurred from ~1945-1977;, global warming occurred from 1977 to 1998; and global cooling has occurred since 1998.

"The global cooling that has occurred since 1998 is exactly in phase with the long term pattern".

The IPCC predicted global warming of 0.6° C (1° F) by 2011 and 1.2° C (2° F) by 2038, whereas Easterbrook (2001) predicted the beginning of global cooling by 2007 (± 3–5 yrs) and cooling of about 0.3–0.5° C until ~2035. The predicted cooling seems to have already begun. Recent measurements of global temperatures suggest a gradual cooling trend since 1998 and 2007–2008 was a year of sharp global cooling. The cooling trend will likely continue as the sun enters a cycle of lower irradiance and the Pacific Ocean changed from its warm mode to its cool mode. ... “Global warming” (i.e., the warming since 1977) is over. I'll not go on - either Easterbrook had tomatoes thrown at him at this meeting, or else a quick synopsis of claims like this belong in the article, and not tucked away somewhere else. MalcolmMcDonald (talk) 14:15, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

Yes, some papers on almost any scientific subject you care to mention will express, and vigorously defend, an alternative view. We weigh sources and decide which to give most prominence. I don't see a good reason here to give great prominence to the conclusions of Easterbrook. We're not saying he's wrong, or that he's right. It's just that his views don't carry much weight at the current state of climate science. --TS 14:46, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

Just a quick note, AGU conference abstracts are not peer reviewed. Anybody can write an abstract that says whatever they want, as long as it's at least vaguely relevant to the topic of the session. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 16:29, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

Yes, and that speaks to weight. There's another point about MalcolmMacdonald's argument above that should probably be addressed. If I understand his argument, he says he believes that Easterbrook's 2001 paper gave a more accurate prediction of the global average temperature for 2001-2008 than the models considered by IPCC, therefore Easterbrook is right, therefore we should include Easterbrook's predictions in the article. This would be wrong for two reasons: firstly, a Wikipedian comparing the accuracy of predictions and using that alone to determine content is a matter of original research. Secondly, the standard for inclusion on Wikipedia is verifiability, not truth. Even if we were 100% sure and some other (independent) source agreed with us that Easterbrook was right, we would still have to evaluate the source for reliability. To put it another way, there is no short cut past the verifiability criterion. If Easterbrook (or any other scientist) is right, we can afford to wait for the reliable sources to provide us with verification. Meanwhile we report what the reliable sources do tell us, we don't try to second-guess what they will say next year. --TS 16:42, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

Let me emphasise that I only know what I've seen in the popular press - chiefly the Independent (but matched exactly for alarmism in the Times). I'd been sold on much more extreme effects than quoted here, 5' of sea-level rise by 2100 (100m thereafter? or was it 100'?), 2 more positive feedback loops leading to a potential 15deg C peak with catastrophic results indeed.

So I'm startled to discover from this discussion page that the opposing case is actually credible too. Perhaps more significantly, it's backed by serious scientific and engineering heads - with no particular financial interests to protect.

And I'm startled by the opposite effect going on at another article - seen on ITV a month ago was the famous popular archaeologist Tony Robinson telling us of the Snowball Earth theory, exactly as if it was scientific orthodoxy. But even mention of this "popular view" has been, and has to be, suppressed at Snowball Earth, no mention allowed. Strange that. MalcolmMcDonald (talk) 18:24, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

"Let me emphasise that I only know what I've seen in the popular press." I think that's your problem right there. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 18:27, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

This isn't a discussion forum for determining the truth of global warming. It's a discussion page on a wiki, and the topic is how we can improve the article on global warming within the content policies of Wikipedia.

Despite any appearances to the contrary, Tony Robinson really isn't an expert on climatology. He's an actor. --TS 18:49, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

I fear Boris may have noted your weak point. However... if Easterbrooks point was any good, you would be able to find something better than an abstract to support it with William M. Connolley (talk) 21:26, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

I've split the recent discussion about an abstract into a new section. The abstract in question is available from the American Geophysical Union's website here [4]. (I'm not sure if that link will work for others, but all I did is search for Easterbrook on this search page [5] and then chose the "Solar Influence on ..." link.) First of all, we can't use abstracts as sources on pages. Second of all, we do have a mention in the article that short-term future warming is not expected. Third, we do have the a section in this article devoted to Solar variation, and it links to a main article about Solar Variation. I looked at Don J. Easterbrook's website [6], and searched for his publications, and, so far as I can find, he hasn't actually published any articles about global warming and the IPCC predictions. Other parts of his research, yes, meeting abstracts about global warming, yes, but no articles about Global warming. As far as I can tell from the meeting abstracts, his position is consistent with positions in published articles that are covered, both in the Solar Variation section of this wikipedia article, and in the Solar variation article. So I really don't think there is anything to do to change this article in light of this abstract.

Personally, I wish that this article was less focused on the IPCC's near to mid term predictions, and more focused on long term predictions, because those seem much more stable and well supported. Personally, I don't care whether the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century was due to Anthropogenic effects or not - I do care that anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases are extremely likely to cause changes in climate in the next 200 years, and I wish that this article would focus more and that and less on details of current temperature. But that would require a fair bit of re-organization of this article, Attribution of recent climate change and Instrumental temperature record, and I have neither the ambition nor the interest to re-organize the articles. - Enuja (talk) 20:10, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

You will find that various people (including me) disagree with your personal view. Attribution is important, and needs to be covered. Future change past 100 years is only very lightly covered by the literature (or was; perhaps that is changing) William M. Connolley (talk) 21:26, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

First - Thank You Malcolm McDonald. Second - I bet you (Enuja) wish there was no debate on this issue from a review of your past edits and comments, but I still object your to Kim D. Petersen's efforts to censor my comments. Now can we debate the points in question ? ..and start where we left off – on this statement which starts the article “This article is about the current period of increasing global temperature” ? ..or will you just remove my future postings ? 68.56.76.30 (talk) 21:40, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

Please assume good faith and keep a cool head please. I was the one who removed your posting - and the reason that i gave was this[7]: "rv Copyvio. Please post links if you want to discuss such. And why exactly would Easterbrook be more reliable than a host of others?". It wasn't "censored", but removed because you broke copyright, by inserting a complete article. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 21:59, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

I only assume that you are a true master of parsing the written word and employing your own guidelines. I am both impressed and overwhelmed by your eloquent rebuttals and sheer determination and consistency by which you watch over all things related to AGW. I also assume that I will be burned at the stake (happened often during the last ice age) for presenting different views. But aside from that, I will continue to offer an argument for more balanced content in this article and related subjects. Mk 68.56.76.30 (talk) 23:30, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

I didn't know that they burned people at the stakes more than 10,000 years ago :-). We certainly do not do so here. May i point out that you aught to read WP:AGF, WP:SOAP, WP:RS and finally WP:WEIGHT, which will all significantly help you in presenting your differing view, in a way so that it will be effective here. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 10:41, 5 January 2009 (UTC)

Kim - Please check the Little Ice Age in your own Wikipedia (LIA) which existed ~roughly between 1650-1850 (although there is some debate on the beginning). The fact that you are editing AGW content with great fervor and do not know of the LIA or the resulting tragedies is really alarming ! I think you need to spend less time defining guidelines and more actually researching the subject matter. < Mk > 68.56.76.30 (talk) 04:55, 10 January 2009 (UTC)

Person operating from IP addresses 68.56.76.30 & 68.56.93.169, your posts won't be deleted if you carefully follow all of the guidelines. Since you don't know all of the guidelines, learn from when you break them, and you'll have fewer and fewer posts deleted. - Enuja (talk) 22:10, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

That would be me - Mark. I have nothing to hide other than the fact that I'm not as technically literate as some of you, so I have not come up to speed on all your guidelines. For that I apologize and seek your patience. Mk 68.56.76.30 (talk) 23:30, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

I, personally, do not care what the italic text at the top of the article says. I'm starting a new section below to discuss what that disambiguation language should say. I actually think that Wikipedia's biggest flaw is that it works best when an issue has false controversy: when tons of people come to challenge the content. That challenge must be met with reliable sources, so the article improves. There is a certain amount of controversy that makes editing difficult or impossible, and it can get very frustrating to say the same thing over and over again, but, personally, I think that the political and popular controversy has created a much better article about Global warming than would exist if there were not political and popular objections to the science. - Enuja (talk) 22:10, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

Looking in the archives I see that the Easterbrook stuff has cropped up before. Perhaps it should be added to the FAQ. --TS 17:28, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

I think its too specific. I feel we should keep the FAQ short and focused on the main points. Splette :) ^{How's my driving?} 23:48, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

Disambiguation Language

The disambiguation language at the top of the article is regularly challenged by new (and some long-standing) editors, although it is unchanged since its apparent first insertion [8]. It currently reads

This article is about the current period of increasing global temperature. For other periods of warming in Earth's history, see Paleoclimatology and Geologic temperature record.

How about...

For past Climate change see Paleoclimatology and Geologic temperature record.

After all, "global warming" is defined as the first sentence of this article: why define it before that? I also think that the climate change article should be linked in disambiguation language if we have any disambiguation language. - Enuja (talk) 22:10, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

I think that would be okay. The repetition seems unnecessary. --TS 23:27, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

I believe the opening paragraph should reflect some of the content used in Wikipedia Y2K article such as “This fear was fueled by the attendant press coverage and other media speculation, as well as corporate and government reports.” Or “While no significant computer failures occurred with global significance when the clocks rolled over into 2000, preparation for the Y2K bug had a significant effect on the computer industry.“ The Global Warming article should probably read “While no significant temperature increases were noted after 2001, preparation for AGW had a significant effect on many governmental policies that took many years to undue.“ < Mk > —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.56.76.30 (talk) 05:12, 10 January 2009 (UTC)

Scientific uncertainty

An editor has created this article and categorised it as a climate article diff. As this isn't really my area, perhaps interested experts here could comment on the article talk page? All the best Tim Vickers (talk) 18:41, 5 January 2009 (UTC)

Ice Age

Do you people know that 20 years ago the schools were telling kids in their science books that in 25 years there would be another Ice Age? What happened to that? Now it's Global Warming?!?!?!?!  ????? (since I'm only 13 my uncle told me this...he was in like 5th grade or something.) —Preceding unsigned comment added by 98.226.79.168 (talk) 17:27, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Global_warming/FAQ#Weren.27t_they_saying_in_1970_that_pollution_was_going_to_freeze_the_world_over_by_2000.3F].
• Your uncle's school may have had unusually bad books, or your uncle may misremember. There was a short global cooling scare in the popular press, about 30-35 years ago, but it had little scientific support. See our article on global cooling. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:36, 7 January 2009 (UTC)

Stephan - Did you even read the global cooling article in Wikipedia ? To the contrary, at the time they believed they had as much “science” and “consensus” on the subject as what is being put forth in this article. < Mk > 68.56.76.30 (talk) 05:22, 10 January 2009 (UTC)

Who is "they"? From our article: " This hypothesis never had significant scientific support". Or see "There was no scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was headed into an imminent ice age. Indeed, the possibility of anthropogenic warming dominated the peer-reviewed literature even then" from this article in the ]Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 08:20, 10 January 2009 (UTC)

Talk:Global warming/FAQ

Great job, guys! I haven't really been tracking this article in quite some time and had been unaware of the existence of the FAQ. Every controversial Wikipedia article should have such a FAQ!

I notice that there is no mention of Urban heat islands in the FAQ. Perhaps someone should add it?

--Richard (talk) 00:59, 8 January 2009 (UTC)

This discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.
The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.
Surely the faq does not need to name Infoe to state senate minority reports are not reliable. If the senate were to change, would Democrat minority reports be reliable? Why cant we just say "because they arnt peer-reviewed scientific documents" and do away with this partisan nonsense. Jaimaster (talk) 05:06, 8 January 2009 (UTC) When guaging the reliability of those reports, the fact that they are written by a nutjob is *far* more important in guaging their reliability than whether or not they have gone through peer review. Your changes remove this extremely-relevant fact from the FAQ, doing the readers here a disservice. That's why I reverted it. And to answer your hypothetical, if the Democrats were to hire James Hansen to write their global warming reports, then yes, those reports would be credible, because James Hansen is credible. (Although it would be preferable if they were written by James Hansen and then peer-reviewed too, but peer-review is not essential to being reliable). If they were to hire Bob Shrum to write them, they would not be reliable. Raul654 (talk) 05:28, 8 January 2009 (UTC) Hansen is a crank who defends vandals and thinks Australian coal exports are going to destroy life on earth. In my opinion he would be very much unreliable, ranking only slightly above the bible bashing "nutjob" who is paid by oil to say "nothing to see here folks". The checks, balances, review process and general reliability of the publication are more important when making judgement on RS for exactly this reason - to avoid personal point of view creating bias. "because Inhofe is an nutjob" is judgemental and subject to such bias; "because its a senate report" is impossible to question. Jaimaster (talk) 06:03, 8 January 2009 (UTC) The fact of the matter is that there are reliable non-peer-reviewed documents. There are many reliable senate reports out there. It's just that where global warming-related senate minority reports are concerned, they happen to be authored by Inhofe's staffers. That they are senate reports does not per se make them unreliable; the fact that they are written by Inhofe's staffers does. As to your comparison between Hansen and Inhofe - the former is a world-respected expert on the subject who has published many important peer-reviewed papers on the subject; the latter is a senator (in the pay of the energy industry, as you said) who specializes in making objectively, indisputably false statements about global warming. If you cannot distinguish between the two, then clearly you are not qualified to tell others what is and is not reliable. Raul654 (talk) 06:24, 8 January 2009 (UTC) I think you are too polarised on this issue to see the similarity in reliability between a noted denialist and a noted hysteric. Hansen is no longer universally respected (as no one who defends vandals should ever be) and his hysterical views now stray nearly as far away from the scientific mainstream (IPCC) as Inhofe's denial. Hansen's latest is that burning coal reserves will make a runaway greenhouse effect (destroying all life on the planet) "very likely", while exploiting tar sands and shoal oil would make this a "dead certainty". I sincerly doubt his conclusions here are any more supported by mainstream scientific opinion than Inhofe's. Jaimaster (talk) 06:48, 8 January 2009 (UTC) If Hansen turns out to be wrong - and you don't know that he is, you're just guessing that he will be - he is wrong by a difference of degree, not of fact. Hansen and the IPCC agree on the basic science that increases in carbon concetration have caused warming, and further increases will cause more warming. Hansen is simply going further than the IPCC in predicting the conseqeuences. On the other hand, Inhofe is dead wrong on the basic science, and on his statements of fact. Hansen is making predictions about the future which could turn out to be wrong; Inhofe is wrong to about what has already happened. If this were a game of darts, Hansen would be hitting the outer ring of the dartboard and Inhofe would be throwing darts at the wrong side of the bar. And if you think that's qualitatively the same thing, then you need to re-evaluate your position. Raul654 (talk) 07:04, 8 January 2009 (UTC) That's just your point of view. I have yet to see a complete theory to support increased CO2 increasing surface temperature. Yet there is a good theory explaining how increased CO2 could cause cooling. Apparently, the actual data shows that a change in CO2 has no effect (according to Dr. Hansen's paper). Q Science (talk) 09:21, 8 January 2009 (UTC) That is plain nonsense. Read the paper and understand it. What Hansen (et al) claims is that for a certain time period and for certain kinds of carbon use, the short-term aerosol cooling compensates some or most of the initial effect of CO2. But aerosols have a short life time (they closely track emissions) and CO2 has a long lifetime (it accumulates). And no, the CO2 has no cooling effect at all. Rather, other pollutants, in particular sulpfhate (take that, WMC!) aerosols also produced by dirty coal burning, have a cooling effect. I have yet to see a complete theory for anything in science. But then, that is not a reasonable expectation, either. Nor is it necessary to make useful decisions. Dark energy is not going to keep me up if I jump out of the window... --Stephan Schulz (talk) 09:36, 8 January 2009 (UTC) Dr. Hansen's paper explicitly states that if CO2 increases 1,000 years after a temperature rise (as shown in the ice core data), then the oceans would have boiled (see page 7 of his paper). Therefore, he adjusts the ice core data to fit his theory. I am not sure what this has to do with coal or emissions. Q Science (talk) 17:21, 8 January 2009 (UTC) Sorry, I confused the papers. The normal "Hansen claims CO2 does not warm" paper is [9]. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:53, 8 January 2009 (UTC) If we hypothesise that there should be a 5000 year lag between forcing and response, then yes - the upper 1km or so of the Oceans would have reached 160°C - since this is obviously wrong. The hypothesis of a 5000 year lag is disproven. Whats your problem with that? Do you think that such a lag should be considered a posibility - despite this? --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 21:49, 8 January 2009 (UTC) The lag is measured, not a hypothesis. Since the oceans did not boil, then maybe the data suggests that the hypothesis that increased CO2 will cause warming needs to be reconsidered. My real problem with the paper is that Dr. Hansen used the CO2 theory to adjust the lags. I would have preferred an analysis explaining the procedural errors that were used to get the wrong results. Simply saying - I'm right and you are wrong - doesn't seem very scientific. Q Science (talk) 22:29, 8 January 2009 (UTC) ...only that the forcing in question is not CO2, but surface albedo changes due to glaciation. And Hansen discusses several of the problems with the measurements: It takes a variable and somewhat unknown amount of time for the gas exchange in the growing ice to stop, hence dating of events is inexact, and global temperature is estimated only via a local proxy (the Vostok core). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:53, 8 January 2009 (UTC) (rm indent) Raul, I think you misunderstand my position. In your analogy I would say Inhofe isnt in the bar, he couldnt find the door, while Hansen is hitting patrons with his darts (such as Australia) and claiming to have "nailed" the bullseye. I prefer to use a clock analogy, where the IPCC is 6, where the right hand side of the clock is skeptical and the left hand side alarmist. 12 represents both complete denial *and* mental-illness end of the world hysteria. Inhofe is sitting right on 12, while Hansen is at about half past 10. This supports my opinion that they are alot closer to one another than they are to the center (6). Jaimaster (talk) 23:51, 8 January 2009 (UTC) As I've already said - Hansen and the IPCC agree on all the basic science -- they disagree on their predictions of how bad it will get. Putting Hansen on a circular spectrum at an arbitrary point of your own choosing, so as to make him seem close to a nutcase like Inhofe, is a shallow rhetorical device designed to hide the fact that you have not supplied a single credible reason why Hansen is not a reliable source. Your claims up to now have could be accurately summarized as "He's saying it could be REALLY bad, and I don't believe that could happen, so he's not reliable." No matter how many times you say it, it does not make it true. Getting back to the larger issue, you have also utterly failed to show that the FAQ paragraph was better after you removed critical facts from one of the answers. Given that we can and do cite Senate reports for non-controversial things, your claim that they are inherently not reliable because they have not been peer reviewed is false on its face. The Senate Minority reports on climate change are not reliable because the authors - Inhofe's staffers - are not reliable. To support your edits, you cited the reliable sourcing policy. Apparently you did so without reading it, because it explicitly contradicts your claims. At this point, this discussion is veering into pointlessness. With the OTRS photosubmissions queue bursting at the seams and an article on mine on FAC, I don't have any more time to spend riding this logical merry-go-round in circles. I'm marking this discussion as closed. Raul654 (talk) 06:56, 9 January 2009 (UTC)

Question (Temperature in Germany)

Wie ist es naturwissenschaftlich (Geographie der Norderdkugel) moeglich, dass in Deutschland am 7.1.2009 Temperaturen von minus 23 Grad Celsius; minus 23.2 Grad Celsius; minus 26,2 Grad Celsius; minus 27,5 Grad Celsius; minus 27,7 Grad Celsius;; minus 24,1 Grad Celsius;; minus 21,5 Grad Celsius; minus 23 Grad Celsius; minus 20,8 Grad Celsius gemessen werden?

• Quelle: Heute Journal 7.1.2009 Minute 29:05
• http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/content/9602?inPopup=true#

—Preceding unsigned comment added by 193.122.47.146 (talk) 10:35, 8 January 2009 (UTC)

Mit einem Thermometer. Please use English on the English Wikipedia. Thanks. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 10:44, 8 January 2009 (UTC)

Global warming edits on unrelated articles

Yesterday I reverted a number of edits by a new user called Erstats, who inserted information questioning global warming into articles such as Jerry E. Smith, The End of Oil, Mortality rate, Adnan Zaidi, and so on. This inserted information seemed very out of place in these articles and I asked the editor to instead raise the issues in this article.

Unfortunately, Erstats reinserted all of these edits, claiming they are relevant to the articles and have citations. Could an editor with more experience in both editing this global warming article and the associated articles please check out these edits and see if they are indeed relevant and correct. Thank you. --SouthernNights (talk) 21:58, 9 January 2009 (UTC)

Scibaby strikes again. I've blocked him. Someone please look through his contribs and revert every climate related edit he's ever made. Raul654 (talk) 22:03, 9 January 2009 (UTC)

Many thanks. I was suspicious about his edits and thought it might be a blocked editor, but didn't know enough about the edit wars on this subject to be sure.--SouthernNights (talk) 23:48, 9 January 2009 (UTC)

I've looked through and removed those you missed, i'm not certain if thats all - so it would be nice with a third check ;) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 02:07, 10 January 2009 (UTC)

Resources list

Here is a list of resources for those who can edit this article (I can't). This post will of course be purged shortly, but perhaps a fellow heretic will spot it first and bookmark this treasure trove of heretical information. I've had to break the link because the domain (a forum host) is considered "spam" by Wikipedia (no surprise). Remove the asterisk to fix it (I predict the justification for deleting this will be "circumvention of spam filter"): http://z4.invision*free.com/Popular_Technology/index.php?showtopic=2050 —Preceding unsigned comment added by 94.126.45.100 (talk) 05:18, 10 January 2009 (UTC) —Preceding unsigned comment added by Jaymax (talk • contribs)

IPCC Climate Models

Can someone please present one of the IPCC climate models that accurately projected the leveling off of temperatures after 1998 and the resultant cooling since that point? It would be especially interesting to see one that projected the 2008 cooling. If there is not at least one peer reviewed climate model that can show such projections (even as late as 2003), should we not rewrite the section on how climate models are used in the IPCC reports ? < Mk > 68.56.76.30 (talk) 05:30, 10 January 2009 (UTC)

The prediction for 2008:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080103.html

The measurements:

http://www.knmi.nl/VinkCMS/news_detail.jsp?id=44619

Count Iblis (talk) 12:59, 10 January 2009 (UTC)

That one's simple enough to answer, that even I can give it a shot. There has been no leveling off of temperatures after 1998, nor has there been any cooling. One cool year does not a trend make. And even though 2008 was cooler than 2007, it does not in any way indicate a cooling trend. And even if it were, it would be no reason to rewrite the section on how climate models are used in the IPCC reports. For we, as simple Wikipedians, cannot change how the IPCC used climate models. We are mere functionaries, bound to accurately report what third-party, reliable, verifiable sources tell us to write. And if the IPCC used climate models in a certain way, we must report how they used them—tragic though it seems. -Atmoz (talk) 03:18, 11 January 2009 (UTC)

How can you possibly look at the graph included in the second link above and flatly say that there has been no leveling off and cooling since 1998?? Do you need to get your eyes checked? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 67.81.71.135 (talk) 05:16, 13 January 2009 (UTC)

Updating temperature chart

World temperatures collapsed in 2008, exposing the global warming movement as a fraud and hoax. When will the temperature chart be updated to reflect this? 18.100.0.118 (talk) 19:51, 11 January 2009 (UTC)

Reliable sources please. --TS 20:08, 11 January 2009 (UTC)

Would someone be willing to look into this for resources? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 75.6.250.235 (talk) 20:11, 11 January 2009 (UTC)

Our temperature chart is based in the Hadley center data [10]. Global temperature data is not collected in real time. Currently, monthly data for 2008 is only available until November, and the yearly update has not yet happened. I assume someone (hopefully User: Dragons flight) will update the chart shortly after the data becomes available. However, while 2008 probably was a bit colder than 2007, it was still among the 10 warmest years on record, and warmer than e.g. 1999 or 2000, and much warmer than 1996. Whoever claimed a "collapse" and "fraud" either has no idea what he is speaking about, or lies. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:34, 11 January 2009 (UTC)

Yeah, look at all of the warming that HadCrut shows in the last decade. Oren0 (talk) 23:10, 11 January 2009 (UTC)

Oren, you should know better than to fall for this cherry picking. As we all now, 1997/98 had an extreme El Nino and 2007/2008 has a moderate to strong La Nina. That's why climate is defined over longer periods of time. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 23:25, 11 January 2009 (UTC)

Fine, 20 years then. 1988 wasn't anomalous as far as I know, but the last 20 years of temperature might as well be a graph of random noise. Oh, I forgot that the if temperatures rise over a few decades it's "climate" but that if they flatline or fall for a decade it's "weather". Oren0 (talk) 00:54, 12 January 2009 (UTC)

This page isn't for fighting the "global warming wars". Try the blogosphere. --TS 01:02, 12 January 2009 (UTC)

Actually, the blogosphere is where Oren seems to get much of his information. "Try the scientific literature" would be a better suggestion. And yes, I know I'm as guilty at arguing this here as he is...

(ec)"Might as well be random noise" - well, I wonder why there is no linear trend fitted to that data, as it was for the other. Or why that plot stops in January 2008 and does not continue to, say, March, when the anomaly was up to +0.45 degrees again. Yes, climate trends are usually observed over several decades, not a single one. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 01:11, 12 January 2009 (UTC)

Seriously, I'm as tempted to continue arguing as are you. And I say "blogosphere" because clearly Oren0 wants to have a long argument, and he won't be able to have much of an argument with umpteen hundred scientific papers, will he? But the only thing that can keep this talk page from becoming even more cluttered with pointless arguments over the pros and cons is for us to keep our focus. The page is for discussing how best to improve the article, and the article itself reflects the scientific consensus on global warming. The arguments can take place on any of thousands and thousands of discussion forums and blogs, but not here. Here is special because this is not where these things are decided. We only write up the consensus. --TS 01:34, 12 January 2009 (UTC)

A few days ago I grabbed the HadCRUT3 monthly dataset from here (format, data) to try different plots of it. I dumped the data into Microsoft Excel to do the plots. I wasn't going to share the results here because you would all whine about it being WP:OR and because I didn't really expect to do anything with it here, but since Oren0 and Stephan were discussing the very same time periods I had plotted I thought I would share.

Excel lets you apply a number of trend lines to the data plots. I chose to do three different trend lines: linear, 5th order polynomial, and 60 month moving average. The only thing special about the 5th order polynomial is that this is the highest odd numbered polynomial the tool supports. Obviously I am not trying to suggest that climate temperatures actually follow a 5th order polynomial for some reason, it was just an easy way to get a reasonable curve to fit the dataset. The other two are obvious choices given the other plots available in the literature. I had the tool include the R^2 values so you could assess the quality of the fit.

The 10 year plot is available here, and the 20 year plot is available here. I am only posting this here because it directly relates to the discussion above and because it will probably be of general interest to the participants. --GoRight (talk) 03:35, 12 January 2009 (UTC)

(ec) Since this has come up many many times: [11][12][13][14]; I've decided to take a little action. There is now a figure at Image:Instrumental-Temperature-Record.svg which approximates Robert Rhode's original as closely as I can, and for which I have provided the full script to generate the plot, pulling the latest data directly from the online source. New versions of that figure can thus be generated by anyone, simply by running the script, the very second the CRU updates their data. This is not intended as a replacement for Robert Rhode's work. Instead, it is intended to be in the spirit of the FAQ: a place we can point these people to rather than have to try and explain, time after time, that despite what they've heard, global temperatures have not plunged dramatically in the last few years, and an "updated" chart won't show them what they're hoping to see. -- Leland McInnes (talk) 03:45, 12 January 2009 (UTC)

That chart looks good. Can't wait until it's official so I can point my friends to this page showing that we've turned the corner and in another 10 years the AGW wackos will have egg on their face. Thanks. 18.100.0.80 (talk) 05:46, 12 January 2009 (UTC)

I'll second that.79.71.253.192 (talk) 22:19, 13 January 2009 (UTC)

I've updated to the new image incorporating the 2008 point. I have no objections to it being reverted, as I think the .png image looked a little nicer than the .svg version. -Atmoz (talk) 21:08, 13 January 2009 (UTC)

I've reverted it for now, because the December 2008 data is still not in (see the HadCrut data file [15]), hence the 2008 temperature is not final. I also like the old one better from an esthetic point of view, but that's less important. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:31, 13 January 2009 (UTC)

We should put the new pic in. Could wait for dec 2008 but it doesn't really matter. Ignore the anons William M. Connolley (talk) 22:35, 13 January 2009 (UTC)

I would recommend sticking with the original. There are some quirks in how the SVG is rendered when scaled down (fonts particularly) that means that it looks worse. User: Dragons flight is usually good at updating these things, so we may as well wait. -- Leland McInnes (talk) 23:52, 13 January 2009 (UTC)

Alternative theories

I would like to point out that there are several alternative theories out there to what is happening to the earth, eg. global cooling. Skimming through the article, I didn't see any mention of such thing - I was wondering whether someone could create a section on "Other theories" or "controversies," or at the least, add a link in the "see also" area to other theories on what is happening to the world climate-wise. just to "fairly represent other views on the issue," and insure that wikipedia doesn't become someone's opinion - which i think we all agree is definitely not the purpose of wiki. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 75.6.250.235 (talk) 20:10, 11 January 2009 (UTC)

It's there already: Global_warming#Economic_and_political_debate. --McSly (talk) 20:15, 11 January 2009 (UTC)

Also, there is the solar variation section and links to a lot of related topics in the infobox at the bottom. This includes global cooling, although that is not a (scientific) theory. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:18, 11 January 2009 (UTC)

Negative feedback from water vapor

This article violates NPOV by stating as fact that there is positive feedback from water vapor, even though Roy Spencer found evidence of a negative feedback: http://www.drroyspencer.com/Spencer_07GRL.pdf 18.111.20.124 (talk) 00:20, 13 January 2009 (UTC)

No, Spencer found (or claims to have found) a small negative feedback due to a reduction in ice cloud coverage. Clouds are not water vapor, but either liquid water or, in this case, ice. Our article correctly describes cloud-based feedbacks as "an area of ongoing research" and mentions the difficulty of accounting for them in current climate models ("Whether the net effect is warming or cooling depends on details such as the type and altitude of the cloud. These details are difficult to represent in climate models..."). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 00:31, 13 January 2009 (UTC)

Oh yes, U R right. I missed that 18.100.0.123 (talk) 04:51, 13 January 2009 (UTC)