First Cabinet of Saad Hariri

In November 2009, after five months of negotiations following the 2009 parliamentary elections, Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri formed a national unity government.

Method

Fifteen ministers were selected by Hariri's March 14 Alliance, ten from the opposition March 8 Alliance, and five allotted to President Michel Suleiman. This formula denied March 14 a majority of cabinet posts, while also preventing the opposition from wielding veto power, which requires 11 posts. Thus, at least in theory, the ministers selected by President Suleiman—considered impartial—hold a swing vote on decision making.

Composition

Portfolio	Minister	Political affiliation
Presidential share:
Interior Minister	Ziad Baroud (Maronite)	Independent
Deputy Prime Minister & Defense Minister	Elias Murr (Orthodox)	Independent
State Minister	Adnan al-Kassar (Sunni)	Independent
State Minister	Adnan Hussein (Shia)	Independent
State Minister	Mona Ofeich (Orthodox)	Independent
Government (March 14 Alliance)
Prime Minister	Saad Hariri (Sunni)	Future Movement
Environment Minister	Mohammad Rahhal (Sunni)	Future Movement
Finance Minister	Raya Haffar al-Hassan (Sunni)	Future Movement
Education Minister	Hassan Mneimneh (Sunni)	Future Movement
State Minister	Jean Ogassapian (Armenian)	Future Movement
Justice Minister	Ibrahim Najjar (Orthodox)	Lebanese Forces
Culture Minister	Salim Wardeh (Catholic)	Lebanese Forces
Economy and Trade Minister	Mohammad Safadi (Sunni)	Tripoli Bloc
Minister of Social Affairs	Salim Sayegh (Maronite)	Kataeb Party
Labor Minister	Boutros Harb (Maronite)	March 14 Independent
State Minister	Michel Pharaon (Catholic)	March 14 Independent
Information Minister	Tarek Mitri (Orthodox)	March 14 Independent
Opposition (March 8 Alliance)
Telecommunications Minister	Charbel Nahas (Greek Catholic)	Free Patriotic Movement
Tourism Minister	Fadi Abboud (Maronite)	Free Patriotic Movement
Energy Minister	Gebran Bassil (Maronite)	Free Patriotic Movement
Industry Minister	Abraham Dedeyan (Armenian)	Tashnaq Party
State Minister	Youssef Saadeh (Maronite)	Marada Movement
Foreign Minister	Ali Shami (Shia)	Amal Movement
Sports and Youth Minister	Ali Abdullah (Shia)	Amal Movement
Health Minister	Mohammad Jawad Khalifeh (Shia)	Amal Movement
Minister of Agriculture	Hussein Hajj Hassan (Shia)	Hezbollah
State Minister for Administrative Development	Mohammad Fneish (Shia)	Hezbollah
Others:
Public Works Minister	Ghazi Aridi (Druze)	Progressive Socialist Party
Minster of Displaced	Akram Chehayeb (Druze)	Progressive Socialist Party
State Minister	Wael Abou Faour (Druze)	Progressive Socialist Party
Source:

Fall of government

On January 12, 2011, the government collapsed after all ten opposition ministers and one Suleiman-appointee resigned due PM Hariri's refusal to call an emergency cabinet session over discussion for withdrawing cooperation with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which was expected to indict Hezbollah members in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. Following the fall of the government reports of an "imminent release" of the indictments circulated though there was no government there would constitutionally be no government to receive the indictment as this was first time in Lebanese history a government had fallen after the resignations of a third of the government.

The government lasted barely 14-months and was considered dysfunctional; its collapse precipitated a climate of political deadlock and tension similar to that which existed between 2006 and 2008.

President Michel Suleiman is constitutionally responsible for the formation of a new government, though the prospects for reconciliation between the two polarised parliamentary blocs remains dim in the near-term. He accepted the resignations saying: "In line with clause one of article 69 in the Lebanese constitution on the circumstances under which the government is considered to have resigned...as the government has lost more than one third of its members...the cabinet [is requested to] act as a caretaker government until the formation of a new government." Suleiman asked Hariri to maintain a caretaker role while charging him with forming a new government following an emergency return from a summit in the United States and a stopover in France and Turkey. He said that "There is no alternative for all of us but dialogue, and no side in Lebanon will be able to eliminate the other," further adding that he would work with his allies to form a government in line with "national unity" objectives.

Nabih Berri, the Lebanese parliamentary speaker and a member of the March 8 alliance, said Suleiman would formally launch talks to create a new government on January 16. However, March 8 said it would no longer be involved in an Hariri government. Mohammed Raad, an Hezbollah MP, said his party would nominate a candidate for prime minister who has "a history of resistance." Though, March 14 said it would not accept anyone other than Hariri. One of his bloc's MP's, Boutros Harb, said "I do not see a government in the country without Saad al-Hariri."

Reactions

Domestic politics

Supranational

The Secretary-General of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, said that only a unity government can prevent another civil war. He said doors of dialogue must be left open to form a "national accord" that would be in Lebanon's "supreme interest".

Eric Mottu of the International Monetary Fund said instability could be detrimental to the economy of Lebanon and that and the withdrawals from the government "will further erode confidence and may heighten the risk of a further slowdown. "For growth, investment, consumption and tourism it could be a risk."

International

Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said: "The resignations will be dangerous, as they will cause clashes once again. Thus, we hope these resignations will not take place. They have the potential to cause everything built so far to collapse." He also warned of possible regional repercussions.

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said the withdrawals were "extremely serious" and could have "grave implications" across the Middle East. He also said the UK "strongly condemns" alleged attempts to undermine the STL "which must be allowed to do its work without any obstacle. Justice must take its course and there should be an end to impunity for political assassinations in Lebanon."

The United States President's office said that Hezbollah was "demonstrating their own fear and determination to block the government’s ability to conduct its business and advance the aspirations of all of the Lebanese people." US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said "We view what happened today as a transparent effort by those forces inside Lebanon, as well as interests outside Lebanon, to subvert justice and undermine Lebanon’s stability and progress, We believe that the work of the Special Tribunal must go forward so justice can be served and impunity ended." The ambassador to Lebanon said that the "United States and the international community have said from the beginning, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is an irrevocable, international judicial process; its work is not a matter of politics but of law. The resignation of some of Lebanon's ministers will not change this...The United States remains steadfast in its support for Lebanon's state institutions through our robust military, security, and economic development assistance. We expect a new government will emerge through constitutional procedures, and our strong partnership with Lebanon will endure." Elliot Abrams, a former Bush administration security and democracy-promotion adviser said that "Hezbollah has been holding the entire country hostage while arming itself to the teeth with the help of Syria and Iran. Today’s Hezbollah resignation from the government, where it formally held minority status, is a threat to every Lebanese. If Hariri complies with Hezbollah's demands, he is in my view finished as a national and as a Sunni leader, having compromised his own, his family's, and his country's honour. It appears that Hariri won't do it, which is both a moral and a politically intelligent decision. Instead he and his country are left floating, trying to avoid violence that may only benefit Hezbollah and watching Saudi and Syrian mediation whose outcome for Lebanese sovereignty is likely to be tragic."

Apolitical analysis

Analysts warned of the consequences to Lebanon stemming from the STL in some form. Joshua Landis of the Center for Middle East Studies at Oklahoma University said that "The new show down caused by the impending indictments of the International Tribunal will return Lebanon to paralysis not war. Hezbollah has made it clear that it does not want war. It will not carry out a 'coup,' as some have claimed. But it will bring government to a stand still. The highest price will be paid by Lebanon's wealthy communities. They have the most to lose by a slow down in investment, the collapse of the stock market, and decline in economic growth. And to think that Lebanon was growing at eight per cent last year. Now we are sure to see more immobility, sectarian strife, and economic stagnation in the Middle East." Graeme Bannerman of the Middle East Institute said that "Probably no one in the world wants the tribunal more than Hariri, but he has a whole series of other considerations. He can't govern without consensus." He also said that the United States' backing of the STL has "an alternative agenda, which is to weaken Hezbollah and therefore Syria and Iran. It doesn't take into consideration how the Lebanese political system works. I think we are an essential part of Hariri's problem. I think we are making his life more difficult rather than easier."

Michael Young of the Daily Star said that "[Syrian President Bashir al-] Assad is smarting from the American derailing of Syrian-Saudi talks...Assad does not want to be blamed by Washington and Paris for whatever goes wrong in Lebanon, and he grasps that any confrontation between the Lebanese might only reinforce Hezbollah, and more importantly Iran, at Syria's expense. Neither Hezbollah nor Syria is pleased with what is going on. For the party, all the contentious means of crippling the tribunal have grave shortcomings. A serious political or security escalation would only harden discord at a moment when Hezbollah's primary goal is to show that Lebanon is united in its rejection of the special tribunal. As for Assad, if he pushes too hard, he may lose for good the Lebanese Sunni card, which he has worked for years to regain. Hariri alone can issue Hezbollah with a certificate of innocence, and if the prime minister decides to sit the coming period out of office, it is difficult to see how any opposition-led government would function properly."

Zvi Bar'el of Haaretz also said that the resignation were "intended to show Syria the limitations of its influence on the group and to tell Damascus that if it wanted to show Washington it can preserve stability in Lebanon, Hezbollah and Iran will have the last word. Nasrallah, who is not pleased with the strengthening ties between Syria and Hariri and fears they will gnaw at his power, now wants to reshuffle the cabinet, have a new prime minister appointed and split up the coalition. This will increase Hezbollah's strength and could thwart Syria's ability to form a political bloc that would counterbalance the group."

Al Quda Al Arabi said a "stage of escalation has started" in Lebanon.

Jamal Wakim, a professor at Lebanese International University, said the crisis was "very serious, [as] for the first time since 2008 we have a big division in the country, we have no talks going on between the March 8 and March 14 groups." He added that the opposition March 8 was not likely to form a government on its own and that "there is more yet to come. Violence might break out whenever we have political instability, and now we have a political confrontation between two opposing groups, and its most likely that it will happen." Edward Bell, an analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at the Economist Intelligence Unit said Lebanon could now go for several months without any government. "The external player with the best chance at diffusing the situation is Syria as it maintains contact with all parties, both inside and outside of Lebanon, and can apply pressure on Hezbollah to reach a consensus with other Lebanese parties."

Other reactions

The BLOM stock index crashed following the collapse of the government. However, it stabilised the next day as the Central Bank said there was no rush to the dollar and that it would intervene to stabilise the country should there be a capital flight from the pound. Though fears from a lingering political crisis existed.