Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum
This page lists public and mock opinion polls that have been conducted in relation to the Scottish independence referendum, 2014, to be held on the 18th of September 2014.
Opinion polls conducted by British Polling Council members
Overview
Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling showed support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population, a slight decline from 2007, when the Scottish National Party (SNP) first formed the Scottish Government.[1] To date there has been little poll evidence of majority support for independence, although the share "vehemently opposed to independence" has declined.[1] Support for independence increased after December 2013, although there is disagreement between the pollsters as to the state of public opinion.[2] Professor Curtice has observed that ICM, Panelbase and Survation show higher yes support and TNS BMRB, YouGov and Ipsos Mori show less support for independence.[2]
Peter Kellner, the president of YouGov, noted in July 2014 that the average results for YouGov and TNS BMRB showed 41% support for independence (excluding don't knows), whereas ICM, Panelbase and Survation showed 45 or 46% support.[3] Kellner said that he believed the latter pollsters were overstating support for independence due to some SNP supporters being "passing nationalists" who had supported other parties (particularly Labour) in other elections.[3] Patrick Briône, director of research for Survation, said in response that adjusting for these SNP ex-Labour voters would require too much upweighting of these voters in their sample.[4]
Polls in March and April showed opposition to independence at an average of 55% (excluding don't knows), compared to 61% in the period before Christmas 2013.[5] There has been little movement in the following few months, with the average showing 43% yes and 57% no in July 2014.[6] A poll by Survation in April 2014 suggested that a high turnout in the referendum is likely.[5] 75% of respondents that they were certain to vote in the referendum, compared to 63% for the next United Kingdom general election.[5] The 2013 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey found that yes voters were slightly more likely to turn out (90%) than no voters (86%).[5]
Results
Only polling companies that are members of the British Polling Council, and therefore fully disclose their findings and methodology, are shown in this section. Three methods of conducting polls have been used by the polling companies. YouGov, ICM, Survation and Panelbase conduct polls online; Ipsos Mori conduct their polls by telephone and TNS BMRB use face to face interviews.[7] There are variations in the questions used by each company, with TNS BMRB, ICM and Panelbase asking respondents how they intend to vote on 18 September 2014, while YouGov, Survation and Ipsos Mori ask their respondents how they would vote if the referendum was held immediately.[7]
2014
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 Sep-5 Sep | YouGov/The Sunday Times | 1,084 | 47% | 45% | 6% | 2% | ||
2 Sep-4 Sep | Panelbase | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |||
28 Aug–1 Sep | YouGov/The Times/The Sun | 1,063 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | ||
26–28 Aug | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,001 | 42% | 48% | 11% | 6% | ||
25 Aug | Broadcast of Scotland Decides: Salmond versus Darling | |||||||
12–15 Aug | YouGov/The Times | 1,085 | 38% | 51% | 11% | 13% | ||
12–15 Aug | Panelbase/Yes Scotland | 1,026 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | ||
11–14 Aug | ICM/Scotland on Sunday | 1,005 | 38% | 47% | 14% | 9% | ||
6–7 Aug | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,010 | 37% | 50% | 13% | 13% | ||
4–7 Aug | YouGov/The Sun | 1,142 | 35% | 55% | 10% | 20% | ||
23 Jul–7 Aug | TNS BMRB | 1,003 | 32% | 45% | 23% | 13% | ||
5 Aug | Broadcast of Salmond & Darling: The Debate | |||||||
28 Jul–3 Aug | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,006 | 40% | 54% | 7% | 14% | ||
30 Jul–1 Aug | Survation/Mail on Sunday | 1,000 | 40% | 46% | 14% | 6% | ||
16–22 Jul | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,041 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | ||
7–11 Jul | ICM/Scotland on Sunday | 1,002 | 34% | 45% | 21% | 11% | ||
25 Jun–9 Jul | TNS BMRB | 995 | 32% | 41% | 27% | 9% | ||
4–8 Jul | Survation/Daily Record | 1,013 | 41% | 46% | 13% | 5% | ||
25–29 Jun | YouGov/The Times | 1,206 | 35% | 54% | 12% | 19% | ||
10–23 Jun | TNS BMRB/Scotland September 18 | 1,004 | 32% | 46% | 22% | 14% | ||
16 Jun | Release of the draft Scottish Independence Bill consultation paper[8] | |||||||
12–16 Jun | YouGov/The Sun | 1,039 | 36% | 53% | 11% | 17% | ||
9–12 Jun | ICM/Scotland on Sunday | 1,002 | 36% | 43% | 21% | 7% | ||
9–11 Jun | Panelbase/Yes Scotland | 1,060 | 43% | 46% | 12% | 3% | ||
6–10 Jun | Survation/Daily Record | 1,004 | 39% | 44% | 17% | 5% | ||
2 Jun | Release of Scottish Conservatives Strathclyde Commission Report[9] | |||||||
26 May–1 Jun | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,003 | 36% | 54% | 10% | 18% | ||
30 May | Official Campaign Period begins | |||||||
21–28 May | TNS BMRB | 1,011 | 30% | 42% | 28% | 12% | ||
12–15 May | ICM/Scotland on Sunday | 1,003 | 34% | 46% | 20% | 12% | ||
8–14 May | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,046 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 7% | ||
9–12 May | Survation/Daily Record[dead link] | 1,003 | 37% | 47% | 17% | 10% | ||
23 Apr–2 May | TNS BMRB | 996 | 30% | 42% | 28% | 12% | ||
25–28 Apr | YouGov/Channel 4 | 1,208 | 37% | 51% | 12% | 14% | ||
14–16 Apr | ICM/Scotland on Sunday | 1,004 | 39% | 42% | 19% | 3% | ||
11–15 Apr | Survation/Sunday Post[dead link] | 1,001 | 38% | 46% | 16% | 8% | ||
4–9 Apr | Panelbase/Yes Scotland | 1,024 | 40% | 45% | 15% | 5% | ||
4–7 Apr | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 37% | 47% | 16% | 10% | ||
28 Mar–4 Apr | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,025 | 41% | 46% | 14% | 5% | ||
21 Mar–2 Apr | TNS BMRB | 988 | 29% | 41% | 30% | 12% | ||
20–24 Mar | YouGov/The Times | 1,072 | 37% | 52% | 11% | 15% | ||
17–21 Mar | ICM/Scotland on Sunday | 1,010 | 39% | 46% | 15% | 7% | ||
18 Mar | Release of Scottish Labour Devolution Commission Report | |||||||
7–14 Mar | Panelbase/Newsnet Scotland | 1,036 | 40% | 45% | 15% | 5% | ||
26 Feb–9 Mar | TNS BMRB | 1,019 | 28% | 42% | 30% | 14% | ||
6–7 Mar | Survation/Daily Record/Better Nation | 1,002 | 39% | 48% | 13% | 9% | ||
24–28 Feb | YouGov/Scottish Sun | 1,257 | 35% | 53% | 12% | 18% | ||
20–25 Feb | IpsosMORI/STV | 1,001 | 32% | 57% | 11% | 25% | ||
18–21 Feb | Panelbase/Scottish National Party | 1,022 | 37% | 47% | 16% | 10% | ||
17–21 Feb | ICM/Scotland on Sunday | 1,004 | 37% | 49% | 14% | 12% | ||
17–18 Feb | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,005 | 38% | 47% | 16% | 9% | ||
13 Feb | Chancellor of the Exchequer's speech on currency union | |||||||
29 Jan–6 Feb | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,012 | 37% | 49% | 14% | 12% | ||
28 Jan–6 Feb | TNS BMRB | 996 | 29% | 42% | 29% | 13% | ||
3–5 Feb | YouGov/The Sun | 1,047 | 34% | 52% | 14% | 18% | ||
29–31 Jan | Survation/Mail on Sunday | 1,010 | 32% | 52% | 16% | 20% | ||
21–27 Jan | YouGov | 1,192 | 33% | 52% | 15% | 19% | ||
21–24 Jan | ICM/Scotland on Sunday | 1,004 | 37% | 44% | 19% | 7% | ||
14–20 Jan | TNS BMRB | 1,054 | 29% | 42% | 29% | 13% | ||
3–10 Jan | TNS BMRB/BBC Scotland | 1,008 | 28% | 42% | 30% | 14% |
2013
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3–10 Dec | TNS BMRB | 1,055 | 27% | 41% | 33% | 14% | ||
6–9 Dec | YouGov/The Times | 1,074 | 36% | 55% | 10% | 19% | ||
29 Nov–5 Dec | Ipsos MORI/STV News | 1,006 | 34% | 57% | 10% | 23% | ||
26 Nov | Release of Scotland's Future | |||||||
20–27 Nov | TNS BMRB | 1,004 | 26% | 42% | 32% | 16% | ||
12–20 Nov | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,006 | 38% | 47% | 15% | 9% | ||
23–30 Oct | TNS BMRB | 1,010 | 25% | 43% | 32% | 18% | ||
17–24 Oct | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,008 | 37% | 45% | 17% | 8% | ||
25 Sep – 2 Oct | TNS BMRB | 1,004 | 25% | 44% | 31% | 19% | ||
13–16 Sep | YouGov/The Times | 1,139 | 32% | 52% | 13% | 20% | ||
9–15 Sep | Ipsos MORI/STV News | 1,000 | 31% | 59% | 9% | 28% | ||
10–13 Sep | ICM/Scotland on Sunday | 1,002 | 32% | 49% | 19% | 17% | ||
30 Aug – 5 Sep | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,002 | 37% | 47% | 16% | 10% | ||
23–28 Aug | Panelbase/Scottish National Party | 1,043 | 44% | 43% | 13% | 1% | ||
21–27 Aug | TNS BMRB | 1,017 | 25% | 47% | 28% | 22% | ||
19–22 Aug | YouGov/Devo Plus | 1,171 | 29% | 59% | 10% | 30% | ||
16 Aug | Angus Reid/Daily Express | 549 | 34% | 47% | 19% | 13% | ||
17–24 July | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,001 | 37% | 46% | 17% | 9% | ||
10–16 May | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,004 | 36% | 44% | 20% | 8% | ||
29 Apr – 5 May | Ipsos MORI/The Times | 1,001 | 28% | 57% | 15% | 29% | ||
20 Mar – 2 Apr | TNS BMRB | 1,002 | 30% | 51% | 19% | 21% | ||
18–22 Mar | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 885 | 36% | 46% | 18% | 10% | ||
20–28 Feb | TNS BMRB/Scottish CND | 1,001 | 33% | 52% | 15% | 19% | ||
4–9 Feb | Ipsos MORI/The Times | 1,003 | 32% | 52% | 16% | 20% | ||
30 Jan – 1 Feb | Angus Reid | 1,003 | 32% | 47% | 20% | 15% | ||
11–21 Jan | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,004 | 34% | 47% | 19% | 13% | ||
3–9 Jan | TNS BMRB | 1,012 | 28% | 48% | 24% | 20% | ||
3–4 Jan | Angus Reid | 573 | 32% | 50% | 16% | 18% |
2012
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22–24 Oct | YouGov/DC Thomson | 1,004 | 29% | 55% | 14% | 26% | ||
9–19 Oct | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 972 | 37% | 45% | 17% | 8% | ||
15 Oct | Edinburgh Agreement (2012) | |||||||
8–15 Oct | Ipsos MORI/The Times | 1,003 | 30% | 58% | 12% | 28% | ||
26 Sep – 4 Oct | TNS BMRB | 995 | 28% | 53% | 19% | 25% | ||
17–20 Jun | YouGov/Fabian Society | 1,029 | 30% | 54% | 16% | 24% | ||
7–14 Jun | Ipsos MORI/The Times/The Sun | 1,003 | 32% | 55% | 13% | 20% | ||
27–29 Jan | Ipsos MORI/The Times/The Sun | 1,005 | 37% | 50% | 13% | 13% | ||
9–11 Jan | YouGov/The Sun | 1,002 | 33% | 53% | 14% | 20% |
2011
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24–31 Aug | TNS BMRB/The Herald | 1,007 | 39% | 38% | 23% | 1% | ||
25–31 May | TNS BMRB/The Herald | 1,022 | 37% | 45% | 18% | 8% | ||
5 May | Scottish Parliament general election, 2011 |
Other public polling
Two option polling by other organisations
This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (May 2014) |
Some opinion polls have been conducted by organisations that are not members of the British Polling Council and therefore not obliged to fully disclose their findings and methodology.
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
May 2014 | Progressive Scottish Opinion/Sunday Mail[10] | ??? | 34% | 54% | 12% | 20% |
Dec 2013 | Progressive Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday[11] | ??? | 27% | 56% | 17% | 29% |
Sep 2013 | Progressive Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday[12] | ??? | 27% | 59% | 14% | 32% |
Feb–May 2013 | Lord Ashcroft Polls† | 10,007 | 25% | 65% | 10% | 39% |
† The question should Scotland be an independent country? was the 26th asked question out of a total of 26.
Regional polling
ComRes have conducted polls for ITV Border, surveying people in the council areas of Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway on how they would vote in an immediate referendum.[13]
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9–15 Jun 2014 | ComRes/ITV Border | 1,001 | 26% | 61% | 13% | 35% |
2–6 Jan 2014 | ComRes/ITV Border | 1,004 | 24% | 59% | 17% | 35% |
Three option polling
Before the Edinburgh Agreement clarified that the referendum would be a straight yes or no question on the issue of independence, some three option opinion polls were conducted. The third option in these polls was some (undefined) form of increased devolution.
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution Max | Status Quo | Undecided | Ref. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26 Oct 2012 | YouGov | 23% | 41% | 25% | 11% | [14] |
14 Jun 2012 | Ipsos MORI | 27% | 41% | 29% | 4% | [15] |
13 Jan 2012 | ICM | 26% | 26% | 33% | 10% | [15] |
1 Nov 2011 | TNS BMRB | 28% | 33% | 29% | 10% | [15] |
Demographic polling
Polling has indicated higher support for independence among male voters, voters under the age of 55 and voters from economically deprived areas, compared to higher support for the Union among female voters, voters over the age of 55 and voters living in affluent areas.[16][17]
In June 2013, a poll of over 1,000 14–17 year olds conducted by the University of Edinburgh found that 21% supported independence, 60% supported the Union, and 19% were undecided.[18][19] Only 17% of the teenagers' households said they would vote yes in the referendum, however, which led the Newsnet Scotland website to question the accuracy of the opinion poll.[20] A similar poll by the University of Edinburgh in June 2014 found that support for independence was 29%, opposition 52% and 19% were undecided.[21]
Polling on individual topics
This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (April 2014) |
A survey by Ipsos Mori for STV News in June 2014 found that 51% of voters thought that Yes Scotland had been the more effective campaign, compared to 23% who thought that Better Together had performed better.[22]
Opinion polling has shown a majority in favour of giving control of welfare policy to the Scottish Parliament.[23][24][25][26]
Early in 2013, an opinion poll commissioned by the Press and Journal found only 8% of people in Shetland and Orkney supported the islands themselves becoming independent countries from Scotland, with 82% against.[27]
Polling on hypothetical situations
Opinion polls have also asked for attitudes in various hypothetical situations, such as whether voters believe the Conservatives or Labour are likely to win the next United Kingdom general election, which is due to be held in May 2015.[28][29] An ICM poll in April 2014 found that the no lead would be 8 points (44–36) if voters thought Labour would win, while the no lead would be 1 point (42–41) if they thought the Conservatives would win.[29] Other hypothetical scenarios include if voters thought if the UK was likely to leave the European Union,[30] and if people believed independence would make them £500 better or worse off per year.[31] In August 2013, a Panelbase poll commissioned by pro-independence blog Wings Over Scotland asked voters various questions, such as whether they would vote to join the Union in the hypothetical scenario that Scotland was already an independent country.[32] 18% of voters said they would join the Union, whereas 55% of voters said they would choose for Scotland to remain independent.[32]
Private polling
In June 2013, private research conducted on behalf of Yes Scotland reportedly showed "evidence of growing support for independence" among women and young people, based on "a sample several times the size of a conventional poll" and "a well-designed series of questions building on a rolling monthly basis going back to last January".[33] Better Together demanded that a full report of the research should be published, but Yes Scotland refused to publish it on the basis that private research is not covered by British Polling Council regulations.[34] The SNP researched voting intentions for the referendum while canvassing in Aberdeen Donside for the 2013 by-election; their survey showed 34% of people intending to vote for independence, 29% of people intending to vote for the Union and 37% undecided.[35] The SNP also researched voting intentions for the referendum before the Cowdenbeath by-election, 2014.[36]
A poll by the Scottish Tourism Alliance of members attending its annual conference in March 2014 found 60% would vote no and 32% would vote yes.[37]
The Communication Workers Union (CWU) conducted two polls in April 2014, showing that 60% of its Scottish members would vote 'no', with 26.3% saying 'yes'.[38]
In January 2014, the UK Government spent £46,500 on private opinion polling to be conducted by Ipsos MORI.[39] By July 2014, the UK Government had spent £299,100 on opinion polls regarding Scottish independence during 2014.[40]
School, college and university surveys
Schools, colleges and universities across Scotland have conducted polls and mock referendums to gauge the opinion of pupils and students.[41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48] In September 2013, a survey of over 11,000 Aberdeenshire schoolchildren eligible to vote in the referendum returned 75.5% against independence, with 19 out of 20 schools involved voting 'no'.[49][50] In June 2014, a survey of 964 Moray senior pupils eligible to vote in the referendum voted against independence by 71%, with 7 out of 8 schools involved voting 'no'.[51]
Polling in the rest of the United Kingdom
This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (April 2014) |
Opinion polls have also been conducted in the rest of the United Kingdom in relation to the Scottish independence referendum. People in the rest of the United Kingdom have been polled on a variety of issues such as further devolution for Wales, an English parliament, Trident and currency.
A February 2012 opinion poll in Wales showed a rise in support for stronger powers for its National Assembly if Scotland should choose to be independent.[52] A poll on the same subject in June 2014 found that 61% of Welsh voters thought Scottish independence should make no difference to the constitutional position of Wales, while 17% favoured greater devolved powers and 14% supported independence for Wales.[53] Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University said it was possible that this poll showed that Welsh voters placed greater importance on the union between England and Wales, rather than the unity of the whole United Kingdom.[53] A poll of Welsh voters in April 2014 found 62% were opposed to Scottish independence, with 16% in favour.[54]
A YouGov survey conducted in April 2014 found that although clear majorities of English (59% – 19%) and Welsh (61% – 19%) voters were opposed to Scottish independence, the majority of English voters (56%) and a plurality of Welsh voters (48%) supported cutting the amount of public spending in Scotland.[55] Commenting on the poll, Professor Scully said that it showed that although English and Welsh voters had a similar view on the question of Scottish independence, the English were tougher in their attitude to future relations within the UK.[55]
The British Social Attitudes Survey conducted in 2013 found that a majority (63%) in England and Wales thought that the Trident nuclear missiles should either definitely or probably be moved from an independent Scotland, which was greater than the number in Scotland who thought that the UK should be required to move the missiles.[56] Professor Curtice said this was probably because the English and Welsh public would prefer to have the missiles in their territory, rather than holding them in another state.[56] Majorities in the survey also favoured allowing an independent Scotland to have the same monarch as England (65%) and to continue using the BBC (82%).[56]
Polls in both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom by Panelbase showed majority support for a televised debate between British Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond.[57][58] A poll of FTSE 100 company chairmen found that 65% believed Scottish independence would be bad for business, while 24% believed it would be good.[59]
Currency
Despite the Yes campaign's desire for a Sterling currency union, independent YouGov polls among English and Welsh voters have consistently shown an opposition for such a union with Scotland. YouGov have conducted some polls in the rest of the United Kingdom asking whether an independent Scotland should be allowed to form a currency union with them. In November 2013, 43% opposed a currency union and 38% supported it.[60] In February 2014, after George Osborne said that a currency union would not be allowed, opposition to a currency union increased to 58%.[60] A further poll in April 2014 found that 53% of respondents were opposed to a currency union, with 26% in favour.[61]
An opinion poll commissioned by the SNP – who are campaigning for a yes vote and a currency union – in December 2013 found that 71% of respondents in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland agreed that "if independence does happen [...] Scotland and the rest of the UK should continue using the pound in an agreed sterling area".[62] The annual British Social Attitudes Survey found that, in the summer of 2013, a total of 69% of people in England and Wales thought that an independent Scotland should either definitely (38%) or probably (31%) be allowed to continue to use sterling.[56] Professor John Curtice said that this suggested the recent opinion polls showing opposition to a currency union were the result of UK politicians saying it was a bad idea, rather than the public being opposed in principle.[56]
References
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- ^ "Response To Yesterday's Times, YouGov Articles and YouGov's published research about Survation's Scottish Independence Methodology". www.survation.com. 3 July 2014. Retrieved 7 July 2014.
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