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2017 Manchester Gorton by-election

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Manchester Gorton
by-election, 2017
← 2015 4 May 2017 2017 →
The Manchester Gorton seat in the House of Commons.
Triggered by death of incumbent
MP before election

Sir Gerald Kaufman
Labour

Elected MP

TBD

The Manchester Gorton by-election was a planned by-election scheduled for 4 May 2017 to elect a Member of Parliament (MP) for the House of Commons constituency of Manchester Gorton,[1][2] but which is due to be cancelled following the announcement of a snap general election in 2017, which will see Parliament dissolved before the by-election.[3]

The by-election was called after the death of Sir Gerald Kaufman on 26 February 2017. Kaufman had represented the seat since 1983, and had represented Manchester Ardwick from 1970 until the Ardwick seat was abolished in 1983. He was the Father of the House of Commons from 2015 until his death.[4]

Background

Gorton has, with various boundary alterations, been held by Labour since the 1935 general election,[5] and by Gerald Kaufman from 1983 until his death. The Green Party came second in the 2015 general election, whilst the Liberal Democrats came second in every general election before that since 1997. Labour hold every council seat in the constituency.[6]

From the Fifth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies the seat incorporates the electoral wards (since the 2010 general election) of:

In the EU referendum, Manchester voted in favour of remaining in the EU. As Gorton was only part of the Manchester counting area, the exact result in the constituency is unknown, but through demographic modelling the Remain share in the constituency has been estimated to be 62% by Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia,[8] and 61% by Number Cruncher Politics.[1]

The constituency's population is 29% Asian, mainly of Pakistani origin.[9]

Campaign

On 15 April 2017, according to Dave McCobb, the Liberal Democrat Deputy Director of Campaigns and Elections, private polling suggested that the Liberal Democrats had returned to 31% support in the constituency versus Labour's 51%, similar to the results of the 2010 general election, in which the Liberal Democrats polled 32.6% of the vote and Labour polled 50.1% of the vote in the constituency.[10]

Candidates

The full list of candidates was published by Manchester City Council on 6 April 2017. 11 candidates are contesting the by-election, although it will now not take place.

By-election 2017: Manchester Gorton[11]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
CPA Kemi Abidogun
Communist League Peter Clifford
Monster Raving Loony The Irrelevant Johnny Disco
UKIP Phil Eckersley
Independent George Galloway
No label David Hopkins
Conservative Shaden Jaradat
Labour Afzal Khan
Independent Sufi Khandoker
Green Jess Mayo
Liberal Democrats Jackie Pearcey

Labour: The local Constituency Labour Party (CLP) has been under special measures since 2004, so candidate selection was run by the national executive committee.[6][12] The Manchester Evening News reported that a debate had been taking place for many years within the Gorton CLP over who would succeed Kaufman, and that the party was experiencing severe internal conflict as a result, with many local figures considering putting themselves forward.[2] A selection panel of Keith Vaz, Glenis Willmott, Shabana Mahmood, Andi Fox and Claudia Webbe interviewed potential candidates on 20 March. Vaz, Willmott and Mahmood were seen as representing the "moderate" wing of the party, and allies of party leader Jeremy Corbyn described the inclusion of Vaz on the panel instead of Corbyn's preferred choice of Rebecca Long-Bailey as an "ambush" arranged by deputy leader Tom Watson.[13] The Labour longlist, announced on 17 March, included eight local authority councillors, Member of the European Parliament Afzal Khan, and Sam Wheeler.[14][15]

The NEC panel shortlisted five candidates, all of South Asian ethnicity: Nasrin Ali, a solicitor; Yasmine Dar, a social worker; Khan; Amina Lone, who contested Morecambe and Lunesdale for Labour in the 2015 general election; and Luthfur Rahman, the chair of the CLP.[16][9][17] The omission of Corbyn's reportedly favoured candidates, Wheeler and Julie Reid, drew complaints from the left-wing of the party.[9] Khan was reported to have the support of the Unite, Usdaw, GMB and CWU trade unions, while Dar was backed by the local branch of the Corbyn-supporting Momentum organisation.[18]

Afzal Khan was selected as Labour's candidate on 22 March 2017. It was reported that Yasmine Dar came second, with Luthfur Rahman in third place. The other two candidates were eliminated in the first round of voting, under the Labour Party's alternative vote system.[19]

Green Party: On 16 March 2017, the Green Party of England and Wales announced their candidate to be entrepreneur Jess Mayo,[20] a member of Trafford Green Party branch who stood for election in Wythenshawe and Sale East at the 2015 General Election.[21]

Conservative Party: Dr. Shaden Jaradat, a student recruitment officer at the University of Manchester and deputy chairman of the Manchester Conservative Federation, was selected as the Conservative Party candidate on 30 March 2017.[22][23][24]

UKIP: Phil Eckersley, also the UKIP candidate for Manchester Gorton at the 2015 General Election, will stand in the by-election.

Liberal Democrats: On 4 March 2017, the Liberal Democrats announced their candidate as Dr. Jackie Pearcey, a former councillor for Gorton North ward,[25][26][27] who stood in the constituency in general elections in 1997 and 2001. After earlier speculation, John Leech, MP for Manchester Withington from 2005–2015, ruled himself out, saying he was a "one-constituency-man.".[5]

Other candidates: On 21 March 2017, former Labour, and later Respect MP George Galloway announced his intention to stand as an independent candidate. He was critical of Labour's candidate shortlist only including people of South Asian ethnicity.[9][28] Upon Galloway's announcement, both the Liberal Democrats and Greens criticised him for his strong support for Brexit, in a constituency estimated to have voted in favour of remaining in the EU.[20] The Communist League announced that Peter Clifford would be their candidate at the by-election. Clifford previously contested the 2012 by-election in the neighbouring constituency of Manchester Central, coming last out of twelve candidates, with 64 votes.[29] Kemi Abidogun will contest the seat for the Christian Peoples Alliance.[30] "The Irrelevant" Johnny Disco will stand for the Monster Raving Loony Party. Two other independent candidates, David Hopkins and Sufi Khandoker, are also standing.

Planned cancellation

On 18 April 2017, the Prime Minister Theresa May announced a plan to seek an early parliamentary general election on 8 June 2017. This will mean Parliament will be dissolved at the time the by-election is scheduled to take place. The Leader of the House of Commons told MPs that there was no statutory power to cancel a by-election when a general election was in progress but that there was a precedent from 1923 when a by-election writ was regarded as having been superseded.[31] His expectation was that the Acting Returning Officer would regard that as being the case.[32] There was doubt as to whether the by-election would or would not go ahead, however, with the Acting Returning Officer saying that she had no legal power to cancel the poll.[33] MPs will now be asked to overturn the writ for the poll,[34] cancelling the by-election. This will leave the seat vacant until the general election poll result is announced.[3]

2015 result

General Election 2015: Manchester Gorton[35][36]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Sir Gerald Kaufman 28,187 67.1 +17.0
Green Laura Bannister 4,108 9.8 +7.0
Conservative Mohammed Afzal 4,063 9.7 −1.4
UKIP Phil Eckersley 3,434 8.2 N/A
Liberal Democrats Dave Page 1,782 4.2 −28.4
TUSC Simon Hickman 264 0.6 −0.3
Pirate Cris Chesha 181 0.4 −0.2
Majority 24,079 57.3 +39.8
Turnout 42,019 57.6 +7.1
Labour hold Swing +5.0

References

  1. ^ a b Singh, Matt (27 February 2017). "Manchester Gorton by-election – Number Cruncher Politics". Number Cruncher Politics. Retrieved 2 March 2017.
  2. ^ a b Williams, Jennifer (1 March 2017). "The Labour battle for Gorton". Manchester Evening News. Retrieved 2 March 2017.
  3. ^ a b Staff writer (19 April 2017). "Manchester Gorton by-election cancellation confirmed". BBC News. Retrieved 19 April 2017.
  4. ^ "Labour MP Gerald Kaufman dies at 86". BBC News. 27 February 2017. Retrieved 28 February 2017.
  5. ^ a b Silvera, Ian (28 February 2017). "Manchester Gorton by-election: Former Lib Dem MP John Leech rules himself out". International Business Times. Retrieved 28 February 2017.
  6. ^ a b Bush, Stephen (27 February 2017). "Who will win in Manchester Gorton?". New Statesman. Retrieved 28 February 2017.
  7. ^ Fifth periodical report – Volume 3 Mapping for the London Boroughs and the Metropolitan Counties, The Stationery Office, 26 February 2007, ISBN 0-10-170322-8
  8. ^ Hanretty, Chris. "Revised estimates of leave vote in Westminster constituencies". Google Sheets. Retrieved 27 February 2017.
  9. ^ a b c d Pidd, Helen (21 March 2017). "George Galloway to stand in Manchester Gorton byelection". The Guardian. Retrieved 21 March 2017.
  10. ^ editor, Toby Helm Observer political (15 April 2017). "Lib Dems say they have real chance of winning Manchester byelection". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 19 April 2017. {{cite news}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  11. ^ "Statement of Persons Nominated". manchester.gov.uk. Retrieved 6 April 2017.
  12. ^ Waugh, Paul (9 March 2017). "Labour infighting over Manchester Gorton by-election 'risks gifting seat to Liberal Democrats'". Huffington Post. Retrieved 24 March 2017.
  13. ^ Blanchard, Jack (7 March 2017). "Jeremy Corbyn "ambushed" over Manchester Gorton by-election as disgraced Keith Vaz bags key role". Daily Mirror. Retrieved 8 March 2017.
  14. ^ "Labour NEC announces Gorton longlist". LeftFutures. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  15. ^ "Labour NEC announces Gorton longlist". WriteYou. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  16. ^ Bean, Emma. "Gorton shortlist revealed". labourlist.org. Retrieved 22 March 2017.
  17. ^ "Exclusive: Shortlist for Labour Gorton Candidate". Reddit. Retrieved 20 March 2017.
  18. ^ Bean, Emma. "Fresh backing for shortlisted candidates in Gorton race". labourlist.org. Retrieved 22 March 2017.
  19. ^ Williams, Jennifer. "North west MEP Afzal Khan selected". Manchester Evening News. Trinity Mirror. Retrieved 23 March 2017.
  20. ^ a b Staff writer (21 March 2017). "George Galloway to stand in Manchester Gorton by-election". BBC News.
  21. ^ "Greens announce Jess Mayo as their candidate for the Gorton by-election". ITV News. 16 March 2017. Retrieved 16 March 2017.
  22. ^ Official Conservative Party Press. Announcement on Twitter. Retrieved 30 March 2017.
  23. ^ University of Manchester. Staff directory. Retrieved 30 March 2017.
  24. ^ Manchester Conservatives. Association officers. Retrieved 30 March 2017.
  25. ^ Lindsay, Caron (4 March 2017). "++++Breaking: Jackie Pearcey will fight Manchester Gorton by-election for the Lib Dems". Liberal Democrat Voice. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  26. ^ "Liberal Democrats on Twitter: "We've selected @jackiepearcey as our candidate for Manchester Gorton! Help get her campaign off to a flying start"". Twitter. 4 March 2017. Retrieved 9 March 2017.
  27. ^ Calder, Jonathan (4 March 2017). "Liberal England: Jackie Pearcey to fight Manchester Gorton for the Lib Dems". Liberalengland.blogspot.co.uk. Retrieved 9 March 2017.
  28. ^ "George Galloway Enters "Mother of All By-Elections" In Manchester Gorton". Westmonster. 21 March 2017. Retrieved 21 March 2017.
  29. ^ Marshall, Francesca (24 March 2017). "Gorton by-election: Communist League candidate pledges fight against 'parasitic' capitalists". Mancunian Matters. Retrieved 29 March 2017.
  30. ^ "Manchester Gorton by-election". Christian Peoples Alliance. Retrieved 1 April 2017.
  31. ^ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-39646993
  32. ^ House of Commons Hansard, Business of the House, 18 April 2017, Volume 624, Column 543.
  33. ^ http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/gorton-by-election-manchester-returning-officer-not-cancel-vote-joanne-roney-david-lidington-general-a7690936.html
  34. ^ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-39646993
  35. ^ "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  36. ^ "Manchester Gorton". BBC News. Retrieved 11 May 2015.
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