Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
Several independent organisations have commissioned opinion polls for the 2020 New Zealand general election to be conducted during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament (2017–present) by various polling companies. Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles.[1] The two regular polls are Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research. The last Roy Morgan Research poll was released in November 2017. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date. The current Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017. The 2020 New Zealand general election will take place on Saturday, 19 September 2020.
Party vote and key events
Graphical summary
The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for political parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2017 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2017 election.
Individual polls
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.
Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | ACT | TOP | MRI | NCP | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 Feb 2020 | The first case of COVID-19 is confirmed in New Zealand. | ||||||||||
8–12 Feb 2020 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,004 | 46 | 41 | 3.3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 5 |
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 43.3 | 42.5 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
28 Jan 2020 | Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces that the election will take place on 19 September 2020. | ||||||||||
23–27 Nov 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 46 | 39 | 4.3 | 7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 7 |
7–11 Nov 2019 | YouGov/Stuff | 1,005 | 38 | 41 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | – | 3 |
5–9 Oct 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,008 | 47 | 40 | 4.2 | 7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 7 |
2–9 Oct 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 43.9 | 41.6 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1 | 2.3 |
20–24 Jul 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,003 | 45 | 43 | 3.3 | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 2 |
4–8 Jun 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,002 | 44 | 42 | 5 | 6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2 |
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 37.4 | 50.8 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1 | 13.4 |
30 May 2019 | The 2019 Budget is delivered. | ||||||||||
6–10 Apr 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,009 | 40 | 48 | 4.3 | 6 | 0.7 | – | 0.5 | 0.4 | 8 |
15–23 Mar 2019 | Business NZ Reid Research | 1,000 | 41.3 | 49.6 | 2.3 | 3.9 | – | – | – | – | 8.3 |
15 Mar 2019 | Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49. Terror threat level is raised from low to high. | ||||||||||
9–13 Feb 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 42 | 45 | 3 | 6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 3 |
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 41.6 | 47.5 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5.9 |
24–28 Nov 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,008 | 46 | 43 | 4 | 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | – | 3 |
15–19 Oct 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 43 | 45 | 5 | 7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2 |
2 Aug 2018 | Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave. | ||||||||||
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 45 | 42 | 5 | 6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 3 |
21 Jun 2018 | Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister. | ||||||||||
17–24 May 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000[2] | 45.1 | 42.6 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.5 |
19–23 May 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 45 | 43 | 4.2 | 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2 |
17 May 2018 | The 2018 Budget is delivered. | ||||||||||
7–11 Apr 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 44 | 43 | 5 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1 |
8 Apr 2018 | Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[3] | ||||||||||
27 Feb 2018 | Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[4] | ||||||||||
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 43 | 48 | 2.6 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 5 |
13 Feb 2018 | Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament.[5] | ||||||||||
18–28 Jan 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 44.5 | 42.3 | 3.8 | 6 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 46 | 39 | 5 | 7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | – | 7 |
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 887 | 40.5 | 39.5 | 5 | 10 | 0.5 | 2 | 1.5 | – | 1 |
26 Oct 2017 | Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.[6] | ||||||||||
2–15 Oct 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 894 | 46 | 31 | 6.5 | 11 | 0.5 | 2 | 1.5 | – | 15 |
23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result[7] | N/A | 44.4 | 36.9 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 7.6 |
UMR and Curia polls
These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.
Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | ACT | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
21–27 April 2020 | UMR Research | 29 | 55 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 26 |
14 April 2020 | Curia | 31 | 49 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 18 |
8 April 2020 | UMR Research | 35 | 49 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
17 Feb 2020 | UMR Research | 38 | 42 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 |
2 Feb 2020 | Curia | 39 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
23 Jul 2019 | UMR Research | 38 | 42 | – | 9 | – | 4 |
9 Nov 2018 | UMR Research | 37 | 46 | – | – | – | 9 |
23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result[7] | 44.4 | 36.9 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 7.5 |
Preferred Prime Minister
Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as Prime Minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.
Individual polls
Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Jacinda Ardern | Simon Bridges | Judith Collins | Winston Peters | James Shaw | David Seymour | Bill English | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 May 2020 | UMR Research | – | 65 | 7 | 7 | 3 | – | – | – | 58 |
8–12 Feb 2020 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,004 | 42 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 31 |
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 38.7 | 10.6 | – | – | – | – | – | 28.1 |
23–27 Nov 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 36 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | – | 26 |
5–9 Oct 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,008 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 29 |
2–9 Oct 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 38.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | – | – | – | – | 31.7 |
20–24 Jul 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,003 | 41 | 6 | 6 | 2 | – | 0.4 | 0.2 | 35 |
4–8 Jun 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,002 | 45 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 39 |
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 49 | 4.2 | 7.1 | – | – | – | – | 41.9 |
6–10 Apr 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 51 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 46 |
9–13 Feb 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 44 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 38 |
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 41.8 | 5.0 | 6.2 | – | – | – | – | 35.6 |
24–28 Nov 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,008 | 39 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 32 |
15–19 Oct 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 42 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0.1 | – | 1 | 35 |
2 Aug 2018 | Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave. | |||||||||
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 40 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 30 |
21 Jun 2018 | Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister. | |||||||||
17–24 May 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000[2] | 40.2 | 9 | 3.7 | 4.6 | – | – | 4.2 | 31.2 |
19–23 May 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 41 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 29 |
7–11 Apr 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 37 | 10 | 2 | 5 | – | 0.3 | 2 | 27 |
8 Apr 2018 | Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[3] | |||||||||
27 Feb 2018 | Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[4] | |||||||||
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 41 | 1 | 0.4 | 4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 20 | 21 |
18–28 Jan 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000[2] | 37.9 | 0.5 | - | 5.7 | 0.1 | – | 25.7 | 12.2 |
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 37 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 5 | 0.4 | – | 28 | 9 |
Government direction
Individual polls
Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Right direction | Wrong direction | Do not know | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 51 | 26 | 23 | 25 |
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 887 | 66.5 | 20 | 13.5 | 46.5 |
24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017 | Horizon Research | 1,068 | 49 | 24 | 28 | 21 |
2–15 Oct 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 894 | 58.5 | 27.5 | 14 | 31 |
Forecasts
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National[8] and that Botany will be returned to National,[9][10] but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[11]
Source | Seats in Parliament[i] | Likely government formation(s) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | ACT | MRI | Total | ||
Roy Morgan[12] Sep 2020 poll |
38 | 61 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 120 | Labour (61) |
1 News–Colmar Brunton[13] 10–14 Oct 2020 poll |
40 | 59 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Green (70) |
Newshub–Reid Research[14] 8–15 Oct 2020 poll |
41 | 61 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 120 | Labour (61) |
2020 result | 33 | 65 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 120 | Labour (65) |
- ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
See also
- 2017 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election
- Politics of New Zealand
Notes
References
- ^ Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 5 November 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2018.
- ^ a b c "TV3 poll results". Reid Research. Archived from the original on 28 May 2018. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
- ^ a b "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. 8 April 2018. Archived from the original on 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
- ^ a b "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald. 27 February 2018. Archived from the original on 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
- ^ "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. 13 February 2018. Archived from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
- ^ Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. Archived from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
- ^ a b "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Archived from the original on 7 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
- ^ Keogh, Brittany (6 August 2020). "Election 2020: Doctor, businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat". Stuff. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ "National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany". The New Zealand Herald. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ Ensor, Jamie (15 September 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Jami-Lee Ross won't contest Botany electorate". Newshub. Retrieved 15 September 2020.
- ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday". Roy Morgan. 14 October 2020.
- ^ Whyte, Anna (15 October 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
- ^ O'Brien, Tova (16 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain". Newshub.