2023 Atlantic hurricane season

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2023 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMid-January
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions2
Total storms2
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageNone
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is the current hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere. It officially began on June 1, and will end on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic.[1] However, the formation of subtropical or tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year, as shown by the formation of an unnamed subtropical storm in mid-January, the earliest start of an Atlantic hurricane season since Hurricane Alex in 2016.[2] The first in-season storm, Tropical Storm Arlene, formed on June 1.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2023 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
Average (1991–2020) 14.4 7.2 3.2 [3]
Record high activity 30 15 7† [4]
Record low activity 4 2† 0† [4]
TSR December 6, 2022 13 6 3 [5]
TSR April 6, 2023 12 6 2 [6]
UA April 7, 2023 19 9 5 [7]
CSU April 13, 2023 13 6 2 [8]
TWC April 13, 2023 15 7 3 [9]
NCSU April 13, 2023 11–15 6–8 2–3 [10]
MU April 27, 2023 15 7 3 [11]
UPenn May 1, 2023 12–20 N/A N/A [12]
SMN May 4, 2023 10–16 3–7 2–4 [13]
NOAA May 25, 2023 12–17 5–9 1–4 [14]
UKMO* May 26, 2023 20 11 5 [15]
TSR May 31, 2023 13 6 2 [16]
CSU June 1, 2023 15 7 3 [17]
UA June 16, 2023 25 12 6 [18]
TWC June 17, 2023 17 7 3 https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2023-06-16-hurricane-season-outlook-mid-june
Actual activity 2 0 0
* June–November only
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and research groups. More than 25 forecasts were made for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.[19] Among them were forecasts from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 74–126 units.[20] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[3]

Pre-season forecasts

On December 6, 2022, TSR released the first early prediction for the 2023 Atlantic season, predicting a slightly below average year with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.[5] Their updated prediction on April 6, 2023, called for a similar number of hurricanes, but reduced the number of named storms and major hurricanes by one.[6] The following day, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for a very active season featuring 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 163 units.[7] On April 13, CSU researchers released their prediction calling for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 100 units.[21] Also on April 13, TWC posted their forecast for 2023, calling for a near average season with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.[9] On April 27, University of Missouri (MU) issued their predictions of 10 named storms, 4 between categories one and two, and 3 major hurricanes.[11] On May 1, University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) released their forecast for 12 to 20 named storms.[12] On May 4, SMN issued its forecast for the Atlantic basin, anticipating 10 to 16 named storms overall, with 3 to 7 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes.[13] On May 25, NOAA announced its forecast, calling for 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 1 to 4 major hurricanes, with a 40% chance of a near-normal season and 30% each for an above-average season and a below-average season.[14] One day later, UKMO issued its forecast calling for an extremely active season, with 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 222 units.[15]

In general, there was a wide range of conclusions among the groups making pre-season forecasts. With regard to number of hurricanes, projections ranged from 5 by SMN to 11 by UKMO. This reflected an uncertainty on the part of the various organizations about how the expected late-summer El Niño event and near record-warm warm sea surface temperatures would together impact tropical activity.[19]

Mid-season forecasts

On June 1, the first official day of the season, CSU issued an updated forecast in which they raised their numbers slightly, now expecting a near-average season with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 125 units. They observed sea surface temperatures in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic had increased further to almost record-highs, which could offset increased wind shear from the impending El Niño.[17] On June 16, UA updated its seasonal prediction, which indicates a very active hurricane season, with 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 260 units.[18]

Season summary

For a chronological guide, see Timeline of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
Saffir-Simpson scale

Officially, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and will end on November 30. A total of 2 systems have developed, an unnamed subtropical storm, in the Atlantic north of Bermuda in mid-January, and Tropical Storm Arlene, in the Gulf of Mexico near Florida on the season's opening day.

This season's ACE index as of June 3, as calculated by Colorado State University using data from the NHC, is approximately 2.6 units.[22] This number represents sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000. Therefore, tropical depressions are not included.[3]

Systems

Unnamed subtropical storm

Subtropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMid-January – (TBD)
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
See also: List of off-season Atlantic hurricanes and List of unnamed tropical cyclones

On January 16, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a special tropical weather outlook concerning a low-pressure area centered roughly 300 mi (480 km) north of Bermuda. The NHC noted that the low exhibited thunderstorm activity near its center but assessed its probability of transitioning into a tropical or subtropical cyclone as being near zero percent.[23] These thunderstorms may have developed due to the combination of the cyclone's position over the Gulf Stream, where sea surface temperatures were around 68–70 °F (20–21 °C), and cold air aloft, resulting in high atmospheric instability.[24] This tight cluster of storms was located within a broader storm system that brought snowfall to parts of coastal New England, including amounts of up to 4.5 in (11 cm) in portions of Massachusetts, and 3.5 in (8.9 cm) of snow in Boston.[25] The disturbance, designated Invest 90L by the NHC, brought wind gusts of near 60 mph (100 km/h)[26] to Nova Scotia's Sable Island on the night of January 16, while moving northward toward the Cabot Strait. This prompted Environment Canada to issue wind warnings for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The next day, it crossed over extreme eastern Nova Scotia as a weakening storm, before dissipating over the western coast of Newfoundland late that same day.[26]

There was no storm related damage reported.[2] On May 11, following post-storm analysis, the NHC determined that 90L had been a subtropical storm, and was designated as the season's first storm.[27]

Tropical Storm Arlene

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 1 – June 3
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
998 mbar (hPa)

On May 30, the NHC began monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development.[28] An area of low pressure developed the following day, and the disturbance was designated Invest 91L.[29] The system organized into Tropical Depression Two at 21:00 UTC on June 1, while located off the west coast of South Florida.[30] Hurricane Hunters investigated the depression on the morning of June 2, and determined that it had strengthened into Tropical Storm Arlene.[31] Wind shear and a dry atmosphere prevented the system from intensifying further as it drifted southward through the Gulf of Mexico. On June 3 at 15:00 UTC, Arlene weakened to a tropical depression,[32] and degenerated into a remnant low shortly thereafter.[33]

Storm names

Main articles: Tropical cyclone naming, History of tropical cyclone naming, and List of historic tropical cyclone names

The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2023. This is the same list used in the 2017 season, with the exceptions of Harold, Idalia, Margot, and Nigel, which replaced Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate, respectively.[34] Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2024. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2029 season.

  • Arlene
  • Bret (unused)
  • Cindy (unused)
  • Don (unused)
  • Emily (unused)
  • Franklin (unused)
  • Gert (unused)
  • Harold (unused)
  • Idalia (unused)
  • Jose (unused)
  • Katia (unused)
  • Lee (unused)
  • Margot (unused)
  • Nigel (unused)
  • Ophelia (unused)
  • Philippe (unused)
  • Rina (unused)
  • Sean (unused)
  • Tammy (unused)
  • Vince (unused)
  • Whitney (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, intensities, areas affected, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2023 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2023 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Unnamed Mid-January Subtropical storm TBD TBD New England, Atlantic Canada None None
Arlene June 1–3 Tropical storm 40 (65) 998 Florida None None
Season aggregates
2 systems Mid-January – Season ongoing   – – None None  

See also


References

  1. ^ "Hurricanes Frequently Asked Questions". Miami, Florida: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. June 1, 2023. Retrieved June 1, 2021.
  2. ^ a b Barker, Aaron (May 11, 2023). "First storm of 2023 hurricane season formed in January, NHC says". Fox Weather. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  3. ^ a b c "Background Information: North Atlantic Hurricane Season". College Park, Maryland: Climate Prediction Center. April 9, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
  4. ^ a b "Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT version 2)" (Database). United States National Hurricane Center. April 5, 2023. Retrieved May 17, 2024. Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  5. ^ a b Evans, Steve (December 6, 2022). "TSR: 2023 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast to be 15% below norm". Artemis.bm. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
  6. ^ a b Lea, Adam; Wood, Nick (April 6, 2023). April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2023 (PDF) (Report). Tropical Storm Risk. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
  7. ^ a b Davis, Kyle; Zeng, Xubin (April 7, 2023). "Forecast of the 2023 Hurricane Activities over the North Atlantic" (PDF). Tucson, Arizona: University of Arizona. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  8. ^ Klotzbach, Phil (April 13, 2023). "CSU researchers predicting slightly below-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season" (PDF). Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
  9. ^ a b Erdman, Jonathan (April 13, 2023). "2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: A Developing El Niño Vs. Warm Atlantic Ocean". Atlanta, Georgia. Retrieved April 14, 2023.
  10. ^ Peake, Tracy (April 13, 2023). "NC State Researchers Predict Normal Hurricane Season". NC State News. Retrieved April 15, 2023.
  11. ^ a b Gotsch, Chance (April 27, 2023). "University of Missouri submits 2023 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane forecast". ABC News 17. Retrieved June 7, 2023.
  12. ^ a b "The 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: University of Pennsylvania Forecast". Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Mann Research Group, University of Pennsylvania. May 1, 2023. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  13. ^ a b "Temporada de Ciclones Tropicales 2023" [Tropical Cyclone Season 2023] (in Spanish). Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. May 4, 2023. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  14. ^ a b "NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season". NOAA. May 25, 2023. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  15. ^ a b "North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2023". UK Met Office. May 26, 2023. Retrieved May 26, 2023.
  16. ^ Lea, Adam; Wood, Nick (May 31, 2023). Pre-Season Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2023 (PDF) (Report). Tropical Storm Risk. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  17. ^ a b Klotzbach, Philip J.; Bell, Michael M.; DesRosiers, Alexander J. (June 1, 2023). Extended-range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2023 (PDF) (Report). Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  18. ^ a b Davis, Kyle; Zeng, Xubin (June 16, 2023). "Forecast of the 2023 Hurricane Activities over the North Atlantic" (PDF). Tucson, Arizona: University of Arizona. Retrieved June 16, 2023.
  19. ^ a b Masters, Jeff (June 1, 2023). "Hurricane season begins with a Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance to watch". New Haven, Connecticut: Yale Climate Connections. Retrieved June 2, 2023.
  20. ^ Saunders, Marc; Lea, Adam (December 9, 2020). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2021" (PDF). tropicalstormrisk.com. London, UK: University College London. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
  21. ^ Klotzbach, Philip; Bell, Michael; DesRosiers, Alexander (April 13, 2023). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And Landfall Strike Probability For 2023" (PDF). CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research. Retrieved April 15, 2023.
  22. ^ "Real-Time Tropical Cyclone North Atlantic Ocean Statistics". Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University}. Retrieved June 2, 2023.
  23. ^ Cangialosi, John (January 16, 2022). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved January 17, 2022.
  24. ^ Erdman, Jonathan (January 17, 2023). "Did A January Subtropical Storm Form Off The East Coast?". Weather Underground. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
  25. ^ Shapiro, Emily; Wnek, Samantha (January 17, 2023). "National Hurricane Center issues rare January tropical weather outlook". ABC News. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
  26. ^ a b Baker, Aaron (January 17, 2023). "Rare January disturbance in Atlantic moves into Canada". FOX Weather. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
  27. ^ Public Information Statement (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. May 11, 2022. Retrieved May 11, 2022.
  28. ^ Papin, Philippe; Blake, Eric (May 30, 2023). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  29. ^ Beven, Jack (May 31, 2023). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  30. ^ Papin, Philippe (June 1, 2023). Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number One (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  31. ^ Cangialosi, John; Hogsett, Wallace; Delgado, Sandy (June 2, 2023). Tropical Storm Arlene Special Discussion Number 5 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 2, 2023.
  32. ^ Cangialosi, John (June 3, 2023). Tropical Depression Arlene Discussion Number Nine (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 3, 2023.
  33. ^ Cangialosi, John (June 3, 2023). Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Discussion Number Ten (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 3, 2023.
  34. ^ Erdman, Johathan (May 5, 2023). "Facts About Each Of The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names". The Weather Channel. Retrieved May 25, 2023.

External links

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