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2023 Melilla Assembly election

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2023 Melilla Assembly election
← 2019 28 May 2023 2027 →
All 25 seats in the Assembly of Melilla
13 seats needed for a majority
Registered61,138 Green arrow up3.0%
Turnout30,239 (49.5%)
Red arrow down8.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Juan José Imbroda Dunia Almansouri Gloria Rojas
Party PP CpM PSOE
Leader since 20 July 2000 20 April 2023 24 November 2014
Last election 10 seats, 37.8% 8 seats, 30.6% 4 seats, 14.4%
Seats won 14 5 3
Seat change Green arrow up4 Red arrow down3 Red arrow down1
Popular vote 15,640 5,590 3,206
Percentage 52.6% 18.8% 10.8%
Swing Green arrow up14.8 pp Red arrow down11.8 pp Red arrow down3.6 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader José Miguel Tasende Amin Azmani
Party Vox SML
Leader since 28 December 2022 5 April 2023
Last election 2 seats, 7.8% 0 seats, 2.0%[a]
Seats won 2 1
Seat change Blue arrow right0 Green arrow up1
Popular vote 2,957 1,524
Percentage 9.9% 5.1%
Swing Green arrow up2.1 pp Green arrow up3.1 pp
Mayor-President before election

Eduardo de Castro
Independent

Elected Mayor-President

Juan José Imbroda
PP

The 2023 Melilla Assembly election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 8th Assembly of the autonomous city of Melilla. All 25 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

The election campaign was shook by a vote-buying scandal, after an unusual increase of the postal voting was detected.[1] As a result, some parties, such as Coalition for Melilla (CpM), The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV) and Vox asked the Central Electoral Commission (JEC) to suspend the election and to cancel postal votes.[2][3] On 23 May, five days before the election, ten individuals were arrested for their involvement in an attempted large-scale vote-buying fraud, including the son-in-law of Mustafa Aberchán, the leader of CpM; and Mohamed Ahmed Al-lal, third in the CpM's list and at the time regional minister in the government of Melilla.[4] The latter was dismissed by the Mayor-President of Melilla Eduardo de Castro the following day.[5] Moreover, two individuals linked to the People's Party (PP) were also among the arrested.[6]

The election resulted in a dramatic rise for the PP vote, which under Juan José Imbroda secured an absolute majority of seats that allowed them to recover the regional government, and in the collapse of the CpM support, which fell from 30.6% to 18.8%. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) also lost ground, whereas Vox and local party Somos Melilla (SML) saw increases in support, with the latter entering the Assembly for the first time.

Electoral system

[edit]

The Assembly of Melilla was the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Melilla.[7] Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Melilla and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allowed Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty.[8]

The 25 members of the Assembly of Melilla were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied.[7][8]

The Mayor-President was indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause required that mayoral candidates earned the vote of an absolute majority of councillors, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly was to be automatically appointed to the post. In the event of a tie, the appointee would be determined by lot.[7]

Parties and candidates

[edit]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[7][8]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Juan José Imbroda Conservatism
Christian democracy 		37.84% 10 ☒N [9]
CpM
List
 Dunia Almansouri Social democracy
Progressivism
Regionalism 		30.62% 8 checkY [10]
PSOE
List
 Gloria Rojas Social democracy 14.41% 4 checkY [11]
Vox
List
 José Miguel Tasende Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		7.76% 2 ☒N [12]
SML
List
 Amin Azmani Localism
Centrism 		1.95[a] 0 ☒N [13]

Campaign

[edit]

Party slogans

[edit]
Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Ref.
PP « A ganar Melilla » "Let's win Melilla" [14]
CpM « Contigo, mayoría absoluta » "With you, absolute majority" [15]
PSOE « Gloria Rojas, política en serio » "Gloria Rojas, politics seriously" [16]
Vox « Vota seguro » "Vote safely" / "Go vote for sure" [17]
SML « Toca cambio » "Time for change" [18]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

[edit]
Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 13 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Melilla.

Results

[edit]
← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Assembly of Melilla election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 15,640 52.57 +14.73 14 +4
Coalition for Melilla (CpM) 5,590 18.79 –11.83 5 –3
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 3,206 10.78 –3.63 3 –1
Vox (Vox) 2,957 9.94 +2.18 2 ±0
We Are Melilla (SML)1 1,524 5.12 +3.17 1 +1
We Can (Podemos)2 290 0.97 –0.22 0 ±0
Forward Melilla (ADEME) 78 0.26 New 0 ±0
Creating Melilla (CREAME) 74 0.25 New 0 ±0
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) n/a n/a –5.55 0 –1
Blank ballots 394 1.32 +0.86
Total 29,753 25 ±0
Valid votes 29,753 98.39 –1.06
Invalid votes 486 1.61 +1.06
Votes cast / turnout 30,239 49.46 –8.48
Abstentions 30,899 50.54 +8.48
Registered voters 61,138
Sources[19]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
 
 52.57%
CpM
 
 18.79%
PSOE
 
 10.78%
Vox
 
 9.94%
SML
 
 5.12%
Others
 
 1.49%
Blank ballots
 
 1.32%
Seats
PP
 
 56.00%
CpM
 
 20.00%
PSOE
 
 12.00%
Vox
 
 8.00%
SML
 
 4.00%

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Results for Adelante Melilla in the 2019 election.

References

[edit]
Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "El sondeo de Ceuta y Melilla al margen de las sospechas de la compra de voto". El Plural (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  2. ^ "EP Autonómico (20My – Final): nos espera un 28M de infarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  3. ^ "Esto es lo que pasará el 28-M en Ceuta y Melilla, según el último pronóstico electoral". El Plural (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  4. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  5. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Mayo 2023. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  6. ^ "[AUT] MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 14/05/2023: CPM 39,0% (11/12), PSOE 8,1% (2), ADELANTE MELILLA 3,1%, SOMOS MELILLA 3,3%, CS 0,4%, PP 28,6% (8/9), CRÉAME 3,0%, VOX 10,0% (3)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 14 May 2023.
  7. ^ "La estimación de escaños de Ceuta y Melilla deja todo abierto de cara a las elecciones autonómicas". El Plural (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  8. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  9. ^ "Ceuta y Melilla / El PP ganaría en las ciudades autónomas, pero necesitaría el apoyo de la extrema derecha". El Plural (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  10. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  11. ^ "Ceuta y Melilla / El PP necesitaría de la extrema derecha para gobernar en las ciudades autónomas". El Plural (in Spanish). 23 April 2023.
  12. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
  13. ^ "ElectoPanel Ceuta y Melilla / El PP necesitaría pactar con Vox o PSOE para repetir gobierno". El Plural (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  14. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  15. ^ "ElectoPanel Ceuta y Melilla / El PP ganaría las elecciones en ambas ciudades autónomas, pero necesitaría apoyos para gobernar". El Plural (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  16. ^ "EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  17. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Marzo 2023. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  18. ^ "[AUT] MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 08/04/2023: CPM 36,8% (11), PSOE 7,1% (2), CS 0,5%, PP 31,0% (9/10), CRÉAME 4,9%, VOX 10,0% (2/3)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  19. ^ "Una encuesta de GAD3 pronostica que el PP en Melilla volvería a ganar con mayoría absoluta". Melilla Hoy (in Spanish). 27 February 2023.
  20. ^ a b "Encuesta elecciones Melilla". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 February 2023.
  21. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Diciembre 2022. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 11 February 2023.
  22. ^ "[AUT] MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 11/02/2023: CPM 43,9% (12), PSOE 7,0% (1/2), CS 0,2%, PP 32,6% (8/9), VOX 11,8% (3)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 11 February 2023.
  23. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Noviembre 2022. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 9 November 2022.
  24. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 09/11/2022: CPM 41,0% (11/12), PSOE 6,7% (1/2), Cs 0,1%, PP 36,7% (10), VOX 9,9% (2)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 9 November 2022.
  25. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Septiembre 2022. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 19 September 2022.
  26. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 19/09/2022: CPM 37,0% (10), PSOE 7,8% (2), Cs 0,1%, PP 36,7% (9/10), VOX 13,6% (3/4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 19 September 2022.
  27. ^ "La cuarta estimación mensual de voto de Melilla elaborada por Electomanía refleja que el Partido Popular de Juan José Imbroda supera ahora en intención de voto a CpM". COPE Melilla (in Spanish). 18 July 2022.
  28. ^ "El Partido Popular de Juan José Imbroda recorta distancias con CpM según la tercera estimación mensual de voto de Melilla, aunque siguen lejos de alcanzar la mayoría absoluta". COPE Melilla (in Spanish). 15 June 2022.
  29. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Junio 2022. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 20 June 2022.
  30. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 20/06/2022: CPM 38,9% (10/11), PSOE 8,3% (2), Cs 0,1%, PP 34,1% (9), VOX 13,5% (3/4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 June 2022.
  31. ^ "CpM y PP mantienen el pulso en la segunda estimación mensual de voto de Melilla y apenas medio punto separan a ambos partidos políticos que siguen lejos de alcanzar la mayoría absoluta". COPE Melilla (in Spanish). 15 May 2022.
  32. ^ "Imbroda evita desvelar cuál sería el reparto de diputados aunque avanza que el PP sería el partido más votado con el 42,9%". Melilla Hoy (in Spanish). 19 May 2022.
  33. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Abril 2022. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 8 April 2022.
  34. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 08/04/2022: CPM 39,7% (10/11), PSOE 7,5% (2), Cs 0,3%, PP 31,8% (8/9), VOX 16,4% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 April 2022.
  35. ^ "CpM sería la fuerza política más votada si hoy se celebrasen elecciones, aunque con apenas punto y medio de diferencia con respecto al apoyo que conseguiría el PP de Juan José Imbroda". COPE Melilla (in Spanish). 20 April 2022.
  36. ^ "Adelante Melilla le quitaría la mayoría a CpM, según un sondeo". El Faro de Melilla (in Spanish). 18 February 2022.
  37. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Diciembre 2021. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 30 December 2021.
  38. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 30/12/2021: CPM 38,1% (10/11), PSOE 9,5% (2), Cs 0,3%, PP 34,3% (9/10), VOX 12,6% (3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 December 2021.
  39. ^ "'Sorpasso' de CpM a PP en Melilla". El Faro de Melilla (in Spanish). 28 December 2021.
  40. ^ "ElectoPanel Melilla (15N): vuelco a la derecha". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 November 2021.
  41. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Septiembre 2021. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 10 September 2021.
  42. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 10/09/2021: CPM 34,3% (9/10), PSOE 12,7% (3/4), Cs 0,6%, PP 36,1% (9/10), VOX 10,3% (2/3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 September 2021.
  43. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Junio 2021. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 10 June 2021.
  44. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 10/06/2021: CPM 32,5% (8/9), PSOE 13,0% (3/4), Cs 1,2%, PP 34,2% (9), VOX 15,0% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 June 2021.
  45. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Marzo 2021. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 8 March 2021.
  46. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 08/03/2021: CPM 34,3% (9/10), PSOE 10,5% (2/3), Cs 0,7%, PP 33,1% (9), VOX 16,4% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 March 2021.
  47. ^ "EP (15F): doble sorpasso en Ceuta (Vox al PSOE y Caballas a MDyC). En Melilla, bajada del PP y subida de CpM, que le acecha". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 February 2021.
  48. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Diciembre 2020. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 26 December 2020.
  49. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 26/12/2020: CPM 38,9% (10/11), PSOE 9,7% (2/3), Cs 1,9%, PP 34,1% (9), VOX 11,7% (3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 26 December 2020.
  50. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Septiembre 2020. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 3 October 2020.
  51. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 03/10/2020: CPM 35,7% (9/10), PSOE 12,8% (3), Cs 1,2%, PP 37,0% (10), VOX 9,9% (2/3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 October 2020.
  52. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Julio 2020_2. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 21 July 2020.
  53. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 21/07/2020: CPM 35,9% (9/10), PSOE 14,7% (4), Cs 0,9%, PP 39,0% (10), VOX 6,8% (1/2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 July 2020.
  54. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Julio 2020. Melilla". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 30 June 2020.
  55. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 30/06/2020: CPM 32,7% (8/9), PSOE 14,9% (4), Cs 1,8%, PP 39,1% (10/11), VOX 9,5% (2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 June 2020.
  56. ^ "EP (17My): Melilla – Eduardo de Castro perdería la alcaldía… y el escaño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  57. ^ "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  58. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Mayo 2020. Melilla. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 13 May 2020.
  59. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 13/05/2020: CPM 29,7% (8), PSOE 12,7% (3), Cs 2,4%, PP 46,5% (12/13), VOX 6,3% (1/2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 13 May 2020.
  60. ^ "Estimación Barómetro Febrero 2020. Melilla. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 21 February 2020.
  61. ^ "MELILLA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 21/02/2020: CPM 37,3% (10), PSOE 11,8% (3), Cs 2,8%, PP 40,1% (10/11), VOX 5,1% (1/2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 February 2020.
Other
  1. ^ "El voto por correo, escoltado y otra vez bajo sospecha en Melilla". Público (in Spanish). Melilla. EFE. 12 May 2023. Retrieved 26 May 2023.
  2. ^ "CPM pide la suspensión de las elecciones en Melilla y Vox, anular el voto por correo por presunto fraude". El Confidencial (in Spanish). EFE. 15 May 2023. Retrieved 26 May 2023.
  3. ^ "Los Verdes impugnará las elecciones del 28M en Melilla por presunta "compra de votos" tras ataques a carteros" (in Spanish). Melilla. Europa Press. 13 May 2023. Retrieved 26 May 2023.
  4. ^ Águeda, Pedro (23 May 2023). "Detenido un consejero de Coalición por Melilla y el yerno de su líder por el intento de fraude con el voto por correo". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 May 2023.
  5. ^ Madueño, J. J. (24 May 2023). "Cesan al consejero de Coalición por Melilla imputado en la compra de votos por correo". ABC (in Spanish). Málaga. Retrieved 26 May 2023.
  6. ^ Cembrero, Ignacio (24 May 2023). "La compra de votos en Melilla también salpica al PP con dos detenidos que le son afines". El Confidencial (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 May 2023.
  7. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 2/1995, de 13 de marzo, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Melilla (Law 2) (in Spanish). 13 March 1995. Retrieved 21 February 2020.
  8. ^ a b c Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
  9. ^ "Juan José Imbroda revalidará la Presidencia del PP de Melilla tras ser el único candidato". The Objective (in Spanish). 13 September 2022. Retrieved 24 May 2023.
  10. ^ Ponce, José Ramón (20 April 2022). "Dunia Almansouri será la candidata de CpM a la presidencia de la Ciudad". El Faro de Melilla (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 May 2023.
  11. ^ "El PSOE aprueba las listas para el 28-M con Gloria Rojas como candidata para Melilla, quien se muestra segura porque «los populares ya no engañan a nadie cuando hablan de promesas»". COPE (in Spanish). 18 March 2023. Retrieved 24 May 2023.
  12. ^ "El presidente de Vox en Melilla, José Miguel Tasende, candidato en las elecciones de mayo a la Asamblea regional" (in Spanish). Madrid. Europa Press. 28 December 2022. Retrieved 24 May 2023.
  13. ^ "Amin Azmani, candidato de Somos Melilla a la presidencia de la Ciudad". El Faro de Melilla (in Spanish). 5 April 2023. Retrieved 2 September 2023.
  14. ^ "Imbroda promete que el PP "va a levantar Melilla desde el primer minuto" tras el 28M, "como en el año 2000"". Melilla Hoy (in Spanish). 21 April 2023. Retrieved 25 May 2023.
  15. ^ "Éxito de público en el hotel Tryp Melilla Puerto para arropar a CpM en la presentación del programa electoral". El Faro de Melilla (in Spanish). 17 May 2023. Retrieved 25 May 2023.
  16. ^ "Gloria Rojas: "Necesitamos cuatro años más"". El Faro de Melilla. 12 May 2023. Retrieved 25 May 2023.
  17. ^ "Vox no se anda con rodeos: "Vota seguro"". El Faro de Melilla (in Spanish). 12 May 2023. Retrieved 25 May 2023.
  18. ^ "Amin Azmani: "La única manera de cambiar las cosas es que seamos la llave del Gobierno"". El Faro de Melilla (in Spanish). 12 May 2023. Retrieved 17 April 2024.
  19. ^ "Resolución de 5 de julio de 2023, de la Presidencia de la Junta Electoral Central, por la que se procede a la publicación del resumen de los resultados de las elecciones locales convocadas por Real Decreto 207/2023, de 3 de abril, y celebradas el 28 de mayo de 2023, según los datos que figuran en las actas de proclamación remitidas por cada una de las Juntas Electorales de Zona. Provincias: Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Segovia, Sevilla, Soria, Tarragona, Teruel, Toledo, Valencia, Valladolid, Zamora y Zaragoza. Ciudades Autónomas de Ceuta y Melilla" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (261): 145194–146077. 1 November 2023. ISSN 0212-033X.
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