2023 Nigerian presidential election in Adamawa State
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The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Adamawa State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
Background
Adamawa State is a large, diverse northeastern state in the process of recovering from the worst of the Boko Haram insurgency. The state also has to contend with an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector and low education rates along with continued security challenges from Boko Haram and ISWAP to sustained conflict between herders and farmers.
Politically, the 2019 Adamawa elections were a swing back to the PDP as its presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar won the state back from Buhari and Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri unseated APC Governor Bindo Jibrilla. Legislatively the PDP also gained ground, winning two Senate seats, five House of Representatives seats, and control of the House of Assembly.
Polling
Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
BantuPage | December 2022 | N/A | 17% | 7% | 2% | 44% | – | 24% | 2% | 4% |
Nextier (Adamawa crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 33.8% | 30.8% | 6.3% | 29.2% | – | – | – | – |
SBM Intelligence for EiE (Adamawa crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 9% | 11% | – | 76% | 5% | – | – | – |
Projections
Source | Projection | As of | |
---|---|---|---|
Africa Elects[a][2] | Safe Abubakar | 24 February 2023 | |
Dataphyte[b][3] | |||
Tinubu: | 24.51% | 11 February 2023 | |
Obi: | 20.60% | ||
Abubakar: | 37.55% | ||
Others: | 17.34% | ||
Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][4] |
Abubakar | 17 February 2023 | |
SBM Intelligence[d][5] | Abubakar | 15 December 2022 | |
ThisDay[e][6] | |||
Tinubu: | 20% | 27 December 2022 | |
Obi: | 10% | ||
Kwankwaso: | 5% | ||
Abubakar: | 60% | ||
Others/Undecided: | 5% | ||
The Nation[f][7][8] | Battleground | 12-19 February 2023 |
General election
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
LP | Peter Obi | |||
NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
Total votes | 100.00% | |||
Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
Turnout |
By senatorial district
The results of the election by senatorial district.
Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Others | Total Valid Votes | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | ||
Adamawa Central Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Adamawa North Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Adamawa South Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
The results of the election by federal constituency.
Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Others | Total Valid Votes | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | ||
Demsa/Numan/Lamurde Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Fufore/Song Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Gombi/Hong Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Guyuk/Shelleng Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Madagali/Michika Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Maiha/Mubi North/Mubi South Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Mayo Belwa/Ganye/Toungo/Jada Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Yola North/Yola South/Girei Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
The results of the election by local government area.
LGA | Bola Tinubu APC |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Others | Total Valid Votes | Turnout Percentage | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | |||
Demsa[9][10] | 5,746 | 17.89% | 7,962 | 24.80% | 199 | 0.62% | 17,166 | 53.46% | 1,037 | 3.23% | 32,110 | 34.80% |
Fufore[11][12] | 12,633 | 31.03% | 897 | 2.2% | 508 | 1.25% | 26,059 | 64.01% | 615 | 1.51% | 40,712 | 32.88% |
Ganye[13][14] | 10,112 | 29.93% | 1,069 | 3.16% | 191 | 0.57% | 21,672 | 64.15% | 739 | 2.19% | 33,783 | 34.76% |
Girei[15][16] | 8,531 | 27.89% | 3,748 | 12.25% | 254 | 0.83% | 17,557 | 57.40% | 500 | 1.63% | 30,590 | 37.17% |
Gombi[17] | 8,341 | % | 2,628 | % | 541 | % | 21,744 | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Guyuk[18][19] | 5,904 | 20.56% | 8,165 | 28.43% | 91 | 0.32% | 13,942 | 48.55% | 615 | 2.14% | 28,717 | % |
Jada[20] | 8,479 | % | 984 | % | 186 | % | 28,561 | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Lamurde[21][22] | 3,645 | 15.05% | 9,744 | 40.24% | 188 | 0.78% | 9,912 | 40.94% | 724 | 2.99% | 24,213 | 38.90% |
Madagali[23] | 4,935 | % | 4,034 | % | 201 | % | 18,077 | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Maiha[24] | 7,335 | % | 440 | % | 146 | % | 14,088 | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Michika[25] | 7,062 | % | 6,047 | % | 177 | % | 28,328 | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Mubi North[26] | 10,078 | % | 12,261 | % | 1,253 | % | 21,528 | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Mubi South[27] | 9,399 | % | 2,936 | % | 519 | % | 15,463 | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Numan[28][29] | 5,115 | % | 10,229 | % | 168 | % | 8,984 | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Shelleng[30] | 6,213 | 27.64% | 1,028 | 4.57% | 69 | 0.31% | 14,765 | 65.67% | 407 | 1.81% | 22,482 | % |
Song[31][32] | 10,993 | 26.05% | 8,506 | 20.16 | 1,223 | 2.90% | 20,406 | 48.36% | 1,065 | 2.53% | 42,193 | 39.97% |
Toungo[33][34] | 4,163 | % | 651 | % | 59 | % | 7,401 | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Yola North[35] | 15,885 | % | 9,925 | % | 584 | % | 32,136 | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Yola South[36] | 13,552 | 27.08% | 3,469 | 6.93% | 379 | 0.76% | 31,774 | 63.49% | 873 | 1.74% | 50,047 | 32.68% |
Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
Notes
- ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Fufore, Girei, Gombi, Hong, Song, Yola North, and Yola South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Madagali, Maiha, Michika, Mubi North, and Mubi South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Demsa, Ganye, Guyuk, Jada, Lamurde, Mayo-Belwa, Numan, Shelleng, and Toungo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Demsa, Numan, and Lamurde.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Fufore and Song.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gombi and Hong.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Guyuk and Shelleng.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Madagali and Michika.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Maiha, Mubi North, and Mubi South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Mayo-Belwa, Ganye, Toungo, and Jada.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Yola North, Yola South, and Girei.
References
- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Demsa LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "DEMSA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Fufore LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "FUFORE LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Ganye LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "GANYE LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ TheCable [@thecableng] (26 February 2023). "Girei LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "GIREI LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "GOMBI LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Guyuk LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "GUYUK LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "JADA LGA (ATIKU ABUBAKAR'S HOMETOWN)" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ TheCable [@thecableng] (26 February 2023). "PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Lamurde LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "Lamurde LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MADAGALI LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "And we're back on. MAIHA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MICHIKA LGA, Adamawa state" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MUBI NORTH LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MUBI SOUTH LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ TheCable [@thecableng] (26 February 2023). "PETER OBI WINS LGA IN ADAMAWA PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Numan LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "NUMAN LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Shelleng LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Song LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "SONG LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Toungo LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "TUNGO[sic] LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "YOLA NORTH LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "YOLA SOUTH" (Tweet) – via Twitter.