2024 Irish general election
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159 of 160 seats in Dáil Éireann 80 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next Irish general election to Dáil Éireann, the lower house of Ireland's parliament, the Oireachtas, will be held on or before Thursday 20 February 2025, to elect 160 TDs across 39 constituencies.
As the 2020 general election resulted in a situation whereby government formation required the participation of a minimum three political groups (or two political groups plus a number of independents), the possibility of a snap election being held before the end of the five-year term of the Dáil remains high.
No Taoiseach with a mandate to form a government was nominated by the Dáil when it first met on 20 February. Leo Varadkar resigned as Taoiseach, but continued to carry out the duties pending the appointment of his successor.[1] Negotiations continued, and concluded on 27 June 2020 with the election of Micheál Martin as Taoiseach in a three-way coalition government, consisting of the Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green parties.
Electoral system
The 160 members of the Dáil will be elected in 39 multi-member constituencies, each with between three and five seats, using the single transferable vote system in which voters rank candidates on their ballot papers. When the ballot papers are counted, an electoral quota is created by dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats, plus one.
Any candidate receiving a number of votes exceeding the quota is elected. If fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is removed from the count and the second or subsequent preferences on those ballot papers are redistributed until a candidate is elected. If such a candidate now has more votes than the quota, their surplus is given to other candidates in order of ranking on the ballot papers. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have passed the quota to fill the available seats,[2] or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution then the highest place candidate without a quota is deemed elected at that point.
The outgoing Ceann Comhairle will be returned automatically unless they announce to the Dáil that they wish to retire as a TD.[3]
Latest possible date
The next general election cannot be held later than Thursday 20 February 2025. This date derives from the Electoral Act, 1992: Section 33, which states that the same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting.[4]
Opinion polls
| Last date of polling |
Polling firm / Commissioner | Sample size |
SF | FF | FG | GP | Lab | SD | S–PBP | Aon | O/I[nb 1] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Fine Gael/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Green Party (Ireland)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Social Democrats (Ireland)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Solidarity–People Before Profit/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Aontú/meta/color;"| | ||||
| 28 July 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 1] | 921 | 30 | 20 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10[nb 2] |
| 18 July 2020 | Ireland Thinks/Mail on Sunday[p 2] | 1,000 | 26 | 12 | 38 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | – [nb 3] | 10 |
| 20 June 2020 | Ireland Thinks/Mail on Sunday[p 3] | 1,000 | 27 | 13 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | – [nb 3] | 10 |
| 14 June 2020 | Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 4] | 1,200 | 25 | 13 | 37 | 12 | 2 | [nb 4] | [nb 4] | [nb 4] | 10[nb 4] |
| 27 May 2020 | Red C/Business Post[p 5][p 6] | 1,000 | 27 | 15 | 35 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 23 May 2020 | Ireland Thinks/Mail on Sunday[p 7] | 1,012 | 27 | 16 | 36 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | – [nb 3] | 6 |
| 29 April 2020 | Red C/Business Post[p 8][p 9] | 1,019 | 27 | 14 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 25 March 2020 | Red C/Business Post[p 10][p 11] | 1,062 | 28 | 18 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 March 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 12][p 13] | 912 | 35 | 19 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 25 February 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 14][p 15] | 917 | 35 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 16 February 2020 | Amárach Research/Extra.ie[p 16][p 17] | 1,040 | 35 | 17 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 3 | – [nb 3] | 10 |
| 8 February 2020 | General election | 24.5 | 22.2 | 20.9 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 13.5[nb 5] |
Opinion poll footnotes
- ^ The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
- ^ Renua at 1%.
- ^ a b c d Not specifically mentioned in the report.
- ^ a b c d The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. In the MRBI Poll conducted up to 14 June this figure appears to include all independents as well as all of S–PBP, Aontú and the SocDems.
- ^ Independents 4 Change at 0.4%.
Opinion poll sources
- ^ https://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/J.202038-Sunday-Times-July-2020-Report.pdf
- ^ McDermott, Stephen. "Fine Gael's popularity continues to rise as support for coalition partners falls". TheJournal.ie. Retrieved 19 July 2020.
- ^ "Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Mail on Sunday, 19–20 June 2020". filipvanlaenen.github.io. Retrieved 8 August 2020.
- ^ Leahy, Pat. "Irish Times poll: Almost half of Green voters support proposed coalition government". The Irish Times. Retrieved 16 June 2020.
- ^ Beresford, Jack (31 May 2020). "New opinion poll shows support for Fine Gael remains high during Covid-19 pandemic". Irish Post. Retrieved 31 May 2020.
- ^ Colwell, Richard. "General Election Opinion Poll May 2020" (PDF). RedC/Business Post. Retrieved 7 June 2020.
- ^ Drennan, John (24 May 2020). "Latest poll shows support for Fianna Fail has dropped with one winner". Extra.ie. Retrieved 24 May 2020.
- ^ Lee, John (3 May 2020). "Fine Gael pull streets ahead of Sinn Fein in latest poll sparking rumours of new election". Extra.ie. Retrieved 3 May 2020.
- ^ "General Election Poll, May 2020" (PDF). 3 May 2020. Retrieved 10 May 2020.
- ^ McCrave, Conor (29 March 2020). "Coronavirus measures bring surge in public support for Fine Gael, new opinion poll suggests". The Journal. Retrieved 29 March 2020.
- ^ "Post-Election & Covid-19 Opinion Poll March 2020" (PDF). Red C. 31 March 2020. Retrieved 2 April 2020.
- ^ Cunningham, Paul (14 March 2020). "Opinion poll suggests increase in support for Fine Gael". RTÉ. Retrieved 15 March 2020.
- ^ McShane, Ian (14 March 2020). "Sunday Times March 2020 Poll" (PDF). B&A. Retrieved 15 March 2020.
- ^ Lehane, Mícheál (1 March 2020). "Opinion poll suggests increase in Sinn Féin support". RTÉ. Retrieved 2 March 2020.
- ^ McShane, Ian (2 March 2020). "Sunday Times February 2020 Poll" (PDF). B&A. Retrieved 2 March 2020.
- ^ Grennan, Dan (19 February 2020). "Sinn Fein popularity would rise to 35% in event of a second election — Extra.ie Poll". Extra.ie. Retrieved 2 March 2020.
- ^ "Ireland, Amárach Research poll". @EuropeElects. 20 February 2020. Retrieved 2 March 2020.
Footnotes
References
- ^ Carroll, Rory (20 February 2020). "Varadkar resigns as Irish government enters stalemate". The Guardian. Retrieved 20 February 2020.
- ^ "Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives)". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Retrieved 24 March 2019.; "Electoral Act 1992 [Part XIX]". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Retrieved 15 January 2020.
- ^ "Electoral Act 1992, Section 36: Re-election of outgoing Chairman of Dáil". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Retrieved 16 June 2020.
- ^ "Electoral Act, 1992; Part VI. Duration and Membership of Dáil". irishstatutebook.ie. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
