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2018 Longman by-election

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2018 Longman by-election
← 2016 28 July 2018 (2018-07-28) 2019 →
The Division of Longman (Qld) in the House of Representatives
Registered111,652
Turnout84.26% Decrease 7.42
  First party Second party
 
Candidate Susan Lamb Trevor Ruthenberg
Party Labor Liberal National
Percentage 39.84% 29.61%
Swing Increase 4.46 Decrease 9.40
TPP 54.45% 45.55%
TPP swing Increase 3.66 Decrease 3.66
MP before election

Susan Lamb
Labor

Elected MP

Susan Lamb
Labor

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Longman took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Susan Lamb.[1]

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate with an increased margin.[2]

The Liberal National Party's failure to win this seat for the ruling Coalition has been cited for the downfall of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull almost a month later on August 24.[3]

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Lamb and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[4] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[5] The others are:

Mark Latham, Labor leader between December 2003 and January 2005, voiced a robocall authorised by Pauline Hanson, in an attempt to discourage Labor voting and instead encouraged minor party voting.[6]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[7]

  • Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
  • Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
  • Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates

Candidates (11) in ballot paper order[8]
Party Candidate Background
  Liberal Democrats Lloyd Russell Business consultant.[9]
  Australia First Jim Saleam Party leader. Contested Lindsay at the 2016 election and Cook at the 2013 election.[8]
  Democratic Labour Gregory Bell Truck driver.[8]
  Independent Jackie Perkins Self-employed mobile veterinarian.[10]
  Science James Noonan Criminology and criminal justice graduate.[11]
  One Nation Matthew Stephen Caboolture businessman. Ran in Sandgate at the 2017 state election.[12]
  People John Reece Ran as an independent candidate in Longman at the 2010 federal election.[13]
  Labor Susan Lamb Previous MP for Longman elected at the 2016 federal election.[14]
  Liberal National Trevor Ruthenberg One-term MP for Kallangur elected at the 2012 state election.[15]
  Country Blair Verrier Certified Practising Accountant (CPA).[16]
  Greens Gavin Behrens Caboolture father and IT professional. Ran in Morayfield at the 2017 state election.[17]

Polling

Longman by-election polling
Date Firm Commissioned by Sample MoE[18] Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LNP ONP GRN OTH UND ALP LNP
24−26 July 2018 Newspoll The Australian[19] 1015 ±3.1% 40% 36% 14% 5% 5% − 51% 49%
17−19 July 2018 ReachTEL Courier Mail[20][21] 578 ±4.1% 35.8% 37.9% 13.9% (OTH) 4.3% 3.9% 49% 51%
26 June 2018 ReachTEL Courier Mail[22][23] 814 ±3.4% 39.0% 35.5% 14.7% (OTH) 6.6% 4.1% 49% 51%
21 June 2018 ReachTEL Australia Institute[24] 727 ±3.6% 39.1% 34.9% 14.7% 4.4% 3.7% 3.2% 50% 50%
2 June 2018 ReachTEL Sky News[25] >800 ±3.5% 35% 38% (OTH) 2% 14% 11% 48% 52%
10 May 2018 ReachTEL Australia Institute[26] 1277 ±2.7% 32.5% 36.7% 15.1% 4.9% 6.4% 4.5% 47% 53%
2016 election 35.4% 39.0% 9.4% 4.4% 11.8% 50.8% 49.2%

Results

Further information: Electoral results for the Division of Longman
Longman by-election: 28 July 2018[27][28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labor Susan Lamb 35,203 39.84 +4.45
Liberal National Trevor Ruthenberg 26,170 29.61 −9.40
One Nation Matthew Stephen 14,061 15.91 +6.50
Greens Gavin Behrens 4,264 4.83 +0.44
Independent Jackie Perkins 2,379 2.69 +2.69
Liberal Democrats Lloyd Russell 1,762 1.99 +1.99
Country Blair Verrier 1,387 1.57 +1.57
Democratic Labour Gregory Bell 1,043 1.18 +1.18
Science James Noonan 970 1.10 +1.10
Australia First Jim Saleam 709 0.80 +0.80
People's Party John Reece 420 0.48 +0.48
Total formal votes 88,368 93.93 +2.46
Informal votes 5,707 6.07 −2.46
Turnout 94,075 84.26 −7.42
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Susan Lamb 48,116 54.45 +3.66
Liberal National Trevor Ruthenberg 40,252 45.55 −3.66
Labor hold Swing +3.66

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling: ABC 9 May 2018". Archived from the original on 9 May 2018. Retrieved 10 May 2018.
  2. ^ "July 2018 Federal By-elections: Antony Green ABC". Archived from the original on 28 July 2018. Retrieved 28 July 2018.
  3. ^ "How ScoMo used hapless Dutton to outfox Turnbull". News Corp. 2 September 2018. Archived from the original on 2 September 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2020.
  4. ^ "Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election: ABC 2 May 2018". Archived from the original on 16 June 2018. Retrieved 29 June 2018.
  5. ^ "Mark your calendars, the date has been set for five by-elections". ABC News. 24 May 2018. Archived from the original on 24 May 2018. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
  6. ^ "One Nation unleashes Latham robocall ahead of Queensland by-election". ABC News. 9 July 2018. Archived from the original on 12 July 2018. Retrieved 9 July 2018.
  7. ^ "2018 Longman by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 17 June 2018. Retrieved 17 June 2018.
  8. ^ a b c "2018 Longman by-election guide: Antony Green ABC". Archived from the original on 30 June 2018. Retrieved 23 June 2018.
  9. ^ "Liberal Democrats QLD". Liberal Democratic Party. 6 June 2018.
  10. ^ Dr Jackie Perkins: Facebook
  11. ^ "Science Party names candidates for 2018 by-elections: 12 June 2018". Archived from the original on 15 June 2018. Retrieved 15 June 2018.
  12. ^ "Matthew Stephen named as One Nation's Longman candidate". Courier-Mail. 10 May 2018. Retrieved 12 May 2018.
  13. ^ "By-election 2018 endorsed candidates". Australian People's Party. Archived from the original on 7 March 2018. Retrieved 30 May 2018.
  14. ^ "Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money". ABC. 10 May 2018. Archived from the original on 10 May 2018. Retrieved 10 May 2018.
  15. ^ "Ex-Newman MP Trevor Ruthenberg gets the nod to fight for Longman". The Australian. 22 May 2018.
  16. ^ "2018 Longman by-election: countryparty.org.au". Archived from the original on 19 June 2018. Retrieved 19 June 2018.
  17. ^ Gavin Behrens: greens.org.au[permanent dead link]
  18. ^ "Margin of error calculator". Archived from the original on 29 July 2018. Retrieved 29 July 2018.
  19. ^ Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon, 28 July 2018, archived from the original on 28 July 2018, retrieved 28 July 2018
  20. ^ Longman by-election: ReachTEL poll indicates LNP will win - Courier Mail 21 July 2018
  21. ^ "Super Saturday YouGov Galaxy and ReachTEL polls: Poll Bludger 23 July 2018". Archived from the original on 28 July 2018. Retrieved 28 July 2018.
  22. ^ Longman by-election: Seat slipping away from Labor's Susan Lamb - Courier Mail 27 June 2018
  23. ^ Longman ReachTEL poll exclusive: Key electorate fires warning shot at Shorten - Courier Mail 27 June 2018
  24. ^ "Longman and Mayo: New Polling on Company Tax Cuts and Voter Priorities for Government Revenue - The Australia Institute 24 June 2018". Archived from the original on 24 June 2018. Retrieved 24 June 2018.
  25. ^ ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman, 3 June 2018, archived from the original on 21 November 2018, retrieved 3 June 2018
  26. ^ "Longman Polling" (PDF), The Australia Institute, 11 May 2018, archived (PDF) from the original on 12 May 2018, retrieved 12 May 2018
  27. ^ "2018 Longman by-election results: AEC". Archived from the original on 25 April 2019. Retrieved 30 August 2018.
  28. ^ "2018 Longman by-election results: ABC". Archived from the original on 30 June 2018. Retrieved 23 June 2018.
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