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Blue shift (politics)

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This article is about the political phenomenon. For other uses of "blueshift" or "blue shift", see blue shift (disambiguation).
"Red mirage" redirects here. For the 1913 novel, see The Red Mirage.

In American politics, blue shift is an observed phenomenon under which count of in-person votes are more likely than overall vote counts to be for the Republican Party (whose color is red), while provisional votes, which are counted later, are more likely than overall vote counts to be for the Democratic Party (whose color is blue).[1] This means that election day results can initially indicate a Republican is ahead, but adding provisional ballots into the count can eventually show a Democratic victory. This can lead observers to call into question the election legitimacy, when in fact, the election results are legitimate.[2] Blue shift occurs because young voters, low-income voters, and voters who move often are likely both to vote provisionally and to lean Democratic.[3] This phenomenon remains poorly understood by the general public and election experts, and can cause confusion given that Americans are accustomed to learning projected results on election day and often assume the projected results announced then are an accurate representation of final results.[4]

Background

The phenomenon was first identified by Edward Foley of Ohio State University in 2013.[3] He found that Democratic candidates are significantly more likely to gain votes during the "canvass" period, which is the votes counted after election night.[5] This asymmetry did not always exist, as in the 20th century, as recently as the 1996 United States presidential election, Republicans and Democrats were both able to cut their opponents' lead during the canvass period. Foley conjectured that the 2002 passage of the Help America Vote Act accelerated the pronounced asymmetry of the blue shift phenomenon, because it required states to allow provisional ballots to be cast.[5] He later found that the variation in the size of the blue shift is positively associated with the number of provisional ballots and the Democratic partisanship of the state in question.[6] The growth in the persistent blue-shifted overtime vote began with the 2004 United States presidential election.[7] However, Foley has stated that political scientists have not fully "pinned down causality" of this phenomenon.[4] Foley did not find that mail-in or absentee votes favored either party.[8]

States vary in their rules for processing mail-in ballots. While some require they be received by the elections office by election day, others allow them to arrive later and still be counted, provided they are postmarked by election day. Some states allow ballots to be processed as they are delivered, while some force elections offices to wait until election day to verify signatures and open envelopes. These factors can influence the difference between the vote that is announced on election night and that counted later.

2018 elections

One example is the 2018 California's 39th congressional district election. This was a hotly contested race for an open seat in the United States House of Representatives that included portions of Orange, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino Counties in Southern California. Republican Young Kim was running against Democrat Gil Cisneros. On election night, November 6, 2018, Kim held a lead of 3 percentage points and over 15,000 votes over Cisneros. However, as the votes were counted over the ensuing weeks, Cisneros overtook Kim in the vote count, and won the election.[1] A blue shift occurred in other California races as well - Republican House incumbents Jeff Denham, Mimi Walters and David Valadao were all leading on election night, but ended up losing as mail-in ballots skewed heavily in favor of their Democratic challengers.[9]

Another notable example of blue shift was the 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona between Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. McSally led the vote count on election night, but Sinema ultimately won the election due to mail-in ballots.[10] Democrats initially thought that they had lost that election, but ultimately won.[11] In addition to these examples, blue shift has been documented in California,[1] Pennsylvania,[3] Oregon, and Ohio,[5] among other states.

2020 elections

Foley has expressed concern that this phenomenon, along with difficulties in conducting an election during a pandemic, could lead to "a perfect storm" in the 2020 United States presidential election.[12] The blue shift could decide the election.[4] This concern is particularly pronounced due to the fact that incumbent president Donald Trump has not stated whether he will accept election results.[13] Given Trump’s repeated attacks on mail balloting, nonpartisan experts have warned that he might plan to build up a lead among ballots cast on Election Day, claim victory, and then say, "stop counting ballots because all those absentee ballots are illegitimate," thus disallowing the likely blue shift.[14]

In addition, the United States Postal Service has had cost-cutting policies put in place by its new director Louis DeJoy, who is a top donor and fundraiser to Donald Trump, and these cost-cutting policies may further slow delivery of postal ballots. Donald Trump has openly stated that he opposes USPS funding to prevent mail-in ballots, due to his fears that it could hurt his chances of re-election.[15] These changes have become known as the 2020 United States Postal Service crisis. Some have accused of Trump of "intentionally kneecapping the postal service in an attempt to sabotage the election."[16] These concerns were echoed by former president Barack Obama, who described Trump's threats as "unheard of".[17] For this reason, election experts have advocated that postal ballots be mailed weeks in advance of Election Day.[18] As an alternative solution, Jamelle Bouie of the New York Times advocated that Democrats should vote in person if they are able to.[19]

Predictions

U.S. data and analytics company Hawkfish predicted that on election night in 2020, U.S. Republican party nominee and presidential incumbent Donald Trump would receive more in-person votes than Joe Biden, his Democratic party nominee and principal challenger, but when absentee, provisional, and mail-in ballots were counted, the election would swing against Trump.[20] This scenario has been dubbed red mirage by Hawkfish.[21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28] Hawkfish's survey asked 17,263 American voters whether they planned to use absentee ballots or go to the polls.[25] Asked about the scenario, Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh told reporters, "The news media should get out of the business of predicting the future."[28]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c Li, Yimeng; Hyun, Michelle; Alvarez, R. Michael. "Why Do Election Results Change After Election Day? The "Blue Shift" in California Elections". American Government and Politics. doi:10.33774/apsa-2020-s43x.
  2. ^ Hyun, Michelle (March 30, 2020). "The Blue Shift in California Elections | Election Updates". electionupdates.caltech.edu. Retrieved August 1, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  3. ^ a b c Lai, Jonathan (January 27, 2020). "How does a Republican lead on election night and still lose Pennsylvania? It's called the 'blue shift.'". Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved July 31, 2020.
  4. ^ a b c Graham, David A. (August 10, 2020). "The 'Blue Shift' Will Decide the Election". The Atlantic. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  5. ^ a b c Foley, Edward B. (November 12, 2013). "A Big Blue Shift: Measuring an Asymmetrically Increasing Margin of Litigation". Journal of Law and Politics. 27. Rochester, NY.
  6. ^ Foley, Edward B.; Stewart III, Charles (August 28, 2015). "Explaining the Blue Shift in Election Canvassing". {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  7. ^ Foley, Edward B.; Stewart III, Charles (March 1, 2020). "Explaining the Blue Shift in Election Canvassing". {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  8. ^ Graham, David A. (August 10, 2020). "The 'Blue Shift' Will Decide the Election". The Atlantic. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
  9. ^ https://www.courthousenews.com/cox-declares-victory-over-gop-incumbent-in-7th-california-flip/
  10. ^ Arkin, James. "Sinema wins Arizona Senate race". POLITICO. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  11. ^ "What does Kyrsten Sinema's historic win mean for Arizona?". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  12. ^ Nilsen, Ella (July 31, 2020). "States are scrambling to stop a slow-motion 2020 election disaster". Vox. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  13. ^ "The election is in 94 days. Will the results be seen as legitimate?". Christian Science Monitor. July 31, 2020. ISSN 0882-7729. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  14. ^ McCartney, Robert (August 17, 2020). "Here's one way Trump could try to steal the election, voting experts say". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 17, 2020.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  15. ^ CNN, Ellie Kaufman, Marshall Cohen, Jason Hoffman and Nicky Robertson. "Trump says he opposes funding USPS because of mail-in voting". CNN. Retrieved August 15, 2020. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  16. ^ Estes, Adam Clark (August 7, 2020). "What's wrong with the mail". Vox. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  17. ^ Merica, Dan. "Obama: Trump is trying to 'actively kneecap' and 'starve' the postal service". CNN. No. August 14, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  18. ^ Berman, Russell (August 14, 2020). "What Really Scares Voting Experts About the Postal Service". The Atlantic. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  19. ^ Bouie, Jamelle (August 11, 2020). "Opinion | How to Foil Trump's Election Night Strategy". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  20. ^ Gabriel, Trip (September 2, 2020). "This Is Democrats' Doomsday Scenario for Election Night" – via NYTimes.com.
  21. ^ Cohen, Marshall. "Deciphering the 'red mirage,' the 'blue shift,' and the uncertainty surrounding election results this November". CNN.
  22. ^ "Data firm predicts election 'chaos' as Trump seems to win in a landslide before losing as more votes are counted". theweek.com. August 31, 2020.
  23. ^ Brewster, Jack. "Trump Floats 'Rigged Election' As Democrats' Concerns About Election Day 'Red Mirage' Grow". Forbes.
  24. ^ "What to Expect on an Odd Election Night". September 2, 2020 – via www.bloomberg.com.
  25. ^ a b Talev, Margaret. "Exclusive: Bloomberg group warns Trump will appear to win big on election night". Axios.
  26. ^ Kilgore, Ed (September 1, 2020). "An Election Night 'Red Mirage' Is a Nightmare for Democrats". Intelligencer.
  27. ^ "'Red mirage': Democrat firm warns mail-in ballots may create false Trump landslide illusion on election night". Washington Examiner. September 1, 2020.
  28. ^ a b "Democratic Data Group Warns: Election Night Could Look Like A Trump Landslide (Until Mail-in Votes Are Counted)". www.realclearpolitics.com.

External links

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