Longman by-election, 2018

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Longman by-election, 2018

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The Division of Longman (Qld) in the House of Representatives

  First party Second party
 
Candidate Susan Lamb Trevor Ruthenberg
Party Labor Liberal National

Division of LONGMAN 2016.png

MP before election

Susan Lamb
Labor

Elected MP

Susan Lamb
Labor

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Longman took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Susan Lamb.[1]

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate with an increased margin.[2]

The Liberal National Party's failure to win this seat for the ruling Coalition has been cited for the downfall of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull almost a month later on August 24. [3]

Background[edit]

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis, Lamb and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[4] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[5] The others are:

Mark Latham, Labor leader between December 2003 and January 2005, voiced a robocall authorised by Pauline Hanson, in an attempt to discourage Labor voting and instead encouraged minor party voting.[6]

Key dates[edit]

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[7]

  • Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
  • Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
  • Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates[edit]

Candidates (11) in ballot paper order[8]
Party Candidate Background
  Liberal Democrats Lloyd Russell Business consultant.[9]
  Australia First Jim Saleam Party leader. Contested Lindsay at the 2016 election and Cook at the 2013 election.[8]
  Democratic Labour Gregory Bell Truck driver.[8]
  Independent Jackie Perkins Self-employed mobile veterinarian.[10]
  Science James Noonan Criminology and criminal justice graduate.[11]
  One Nation Matthew Stephen Caboolture businessman. Ran in Sandgate at the 2017 state election.[12]
  People John Reece Ran as an independent candidate in Longman at the 2010 federal election.[13]
  Labor Susan Lamb Previous MP for Longman elected at the 2016 federal election.[14]
  Liberal National Trevor Ruthenberg One-term MP for Kallangur elected at the 2012 state election.[15]
  Country Blair Verrier Certified Practising Accountant (CPA).[16]
  Greens Gavin Behrens Caboolture father and IT professional. Ran in Morayfield at the 2017 state election.[17]

Polling[edit]

Longman by-election polling
Date Firm Commissioned by Sample MoE[18] Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LNP ONP GRN OTH UND ALP LNP
24−26 July 2018 Newspoll The Australian[19] 1015 ±3.1% 40% 36% 14% 5% 5% 51% 49%
17−19 July 2018 ReachTEL Courier Mail[20][21] 578 ±4.1% 35.8% 37.9% 13.9% (OTH) 4.3% 3.9% 49% 51%
26 June 2018 ReachTEL Courier Mail[22][23] 814 ±3.4% 39.0% 35.5% 14.7% (OTH) 6.6% 4.1% 49% 51%
21 June 2018 ReachTEL Australia Institute[24] 727 ±3.6% 39.1% 34.9% 14.7% 4.4% 3.7% 3.2% 50% 50%
2 June 2018 ReachTEL Sky News[25] >800 ±3.5% 35% 38% (OTH) 2% 14% 11% 48% 52%
10 May 2018 ReachTEL Australia Institute[26] 1277 ±2.7% 32.5% 36.7% 15.1% 4.9% 6.4% 4.5% 47% 53%
2016 election 35.4% 39.0% 9.4% 4.4% 11.8% 50.8% 49.2%

Results[edit]

Longman by-election: 28 July 2018[27][28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labor Susan Lamb 35,203 39.84 +4.45
Liberal National Trevor Ruthenberg 26,170 29.61 −9.40
One Nation Matthew Stephen 14,061 15.91 +6.50
Greens Gavin Behrens 4,264 4.83 +0.44
Independent Jackie Perkins 2,379 2.69 +2.69
Liberal Democrats Lloyd Russell 1,762 1.99 +1.99
Country Blair Verrier 1,387 1.57 +1.57
Democratic Labour Gregory Bell 1,043 1.18 +1.18
Science James Noonan 970 1.10 +1.10
Australia First Jim Saleam 709 0.80 +0.80
People's Party John Reece 420 0.48 +0.48
Total formal votes 88,368 93.93 +2.46
Informal votes 5,707 6.07 −2.46
Turnout 94,075 84.16 −7.52
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Susan Lamb 48,116 54.45 +3.66
Liberal National Trevor Ruthenberg 40,252 45.55 −3.66
Labor hold Swing +3.66

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling: ABC 9 May 2018
  2. ^ July 2018 Federal By-elections: Antony Green ABC
  3. ^ https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/claims-scott-morrison-planned-attack-on-turnbull-for-months/news-story/215f764a19c5cf62cfe97c31d4cc0b3e
  4. ^ Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election: ABC 2 May 2018
  5. ^ "Mark your calendars, the date has been set for five by-elections". ABC News. 24 May 2018. Retrieved 24 May 2018. 
  6. ^ "One Nation unleashes Latham robocall ahead of Queensland by-election". ABC News. 9 July 2018. Retrieved 9 July 2018. 
  7. ^ "2018 Longman by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. 
  8. ^ a b c 2018 Longman by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
  9. ^ "Liberal Democrats QLD". Liberal Democratic Party. 6 June 2018. 
  10. ^ Dr Jackie Perkins: Facebook
  11. ^ Science Party names candidates for 2018 by-elections: 12 June 2018
  12. ^ "Matthew Stephen named as One Nation's Longman candidate". Courier-Mail. 10 May 2018. Retrieved 12 May 2018. 
  13. ^ "By-election 2018 endorsed candidates". Australian People's Party. 
  14. ^ "Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money". ABC. 10 May 2018. 
  15. ^ "Ex-Newman MP Trevor Ruthenberg gets the nod to fight for Longman". The Australian. 22 May 2018. 
  16. ^ 2018 Longman by-election: countryparty.org.au
  17. ^ Gavin Behrens: greens.org.au
  18. ^ Margin of error calculator
  19. ^ Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon, 28 July 2018, retrieved 28 July 2018 
  20. ^ Longman by-election: ReachTEL poll indicates LNP will win - Courier Mail 21 July 2018
  21. ^ Super Saturday YouGov Galaxy and ReachTEL polls: Poll Bludger 23 July 2018
  22. ^ Longman by-election: Seat slipping away from Labor’s Susan Lamb - Courier Mail 27 June 2018
  23. ^ Longman ReachTEL poll exclusive: Key electorate fires warning shot at Shorten - Courier Mail 27 June 2018
  24. ^ Longman and Mayo: New Polling on Company Tax Cuts and Voter Priorities for Government Revenue - The Australia Institute 24 June 2018
  25. ^ ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman, 3 June 2018, retrieved 3 June 2018 
  26. ^ "Longman Polling" (PDF), The Australia Institute, 11 May 2018, retrieved 12 May 2018 
  27. ^ 2018 Longman by-election results: AEC
  28. ^ 2018 Longman by-election results: ABC

External links[edit]