Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
Various organisations have commissioned opinion polls for the next New Zealand general election to be conducted during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament (2017-present). Two main polling organisations regularly sample the electorate's opinions: MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (1 News Colmar Brunton). The last Roy Morgan Research poll was released in November 2017. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 23 September 2017. The next general election will take place no later than Saturday, 21 November 2020.
Party vote and key events
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.
Graphical summary
Individual polls
| Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | ACT | TOP | MRI | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2018 | Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave. | |||||||||
| 28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 45 | 42 | 5 | 6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 3 |
| 21 Jun 2018 | Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth to a girl. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister. | |||||||||
| 17–24 May 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000[1] | 45.1 | 42.6 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| 19–23 May 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 45 | 43 | 4.2 | 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2 |
| 17 May 2018 | The 2018 Budget is delivered | |||||||||
| 7–11 Apr 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 44 | 43 | 5 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1 |
| 8 Apr 2018 | Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party[2] | |||||||||
| 27 Feb 2018 | Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party[3] | |||||||||
| 10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 43 | 48 | 2.6 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 5 |
| 13 Feb 2018 | Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament[4] | |||||||||
| 18–28 Jan 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 44.5 | 42.3 | 3.8 | 6 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 46 | 39 | 5 | 7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 7 |
| 30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 887 | 40.5 | 39.5 | 5 | 10 | 0.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 |
| 26 Oct 2017 | Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand[5] | |||||||||
| 2–15 Oct 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 894 | 46 | 31 | 6.5 | 11 | 0.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 15 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result[6] | N/A | 44.4 | 36.9 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 7.6 |
Preferred Prime Minister
Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as Prime Minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.
Individual polls
| Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Jacinda Ardern | Simon Bridges | Winston Peters | James Shaw | Bill English | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2018 | Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave. | |||||||
| 28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 40 | 10 | 5 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 30 |
| 21 Jun 2018 | Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth to a girl. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister. | |||||||
| 17–24 May 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000[1] | 40.2 | 9 | 4.6 | – | 4.2 | 31.2 |
| 19–23 May 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 29 |
| 7–11 Apr 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 37 | 10 | 5 | – | 2 | 27 |
| 8 Apr 2018 | Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party[2] | |||||||
| 27 Feb 2018 | Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party[3] | |||||||
| 10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 0.4 | 20 | 21 |
| 18–28 Jan 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000[1] | 37.9 | 0.5 | 5.7 | 0.1 | 25.7 | 12.2 |
| 29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 37 | 0.3 | 5 | 0.4 | 28 | 9 |
Government direction
Individual polls
| Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Right direction | Wrong direction | Don't know | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 51 | 26 | 23 | 25 |
| 30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 887 | 66.5 | 20 | 13.5 | 46.5 |
| 24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017 | Horizon Research | 1,068 | 49 | 24 | 28 | 21 |
| 2–15 Oct 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 894 | 58.5 | 27.5 | 14 | 31 |
Forecasts
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National[7] and that Botany will be returned to National,[8][9] but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[10]
| Source | Seats in Parliament[i] | Likely government formation(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | ACT | MRI | Total | ||
| Roy Morgan[11] Sep 2020 poll |
38 | 61 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 120 | Labour (61) |
| 1 News–Colmar Brunton[12] 10–14 Oct 2020 poll |
40 | 59 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Green (70) |
| Newshub–Reid Research[13] 8–15 Oct 2020 poll |
41 | 61 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 120 | Labour (61) |
| 2020 result | 33 | 65 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 120 | Labour (65) |
- ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
See also
- Next New Zealand general election
- New Zealand general election, 2017
- Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2017
- Politics of New Zealand
Notes
References
- ^ a b c Reid Research. "TV3 POLL RESULTS". Reid Research. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
- ^ a b Newshub (8 April 2018). "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
- ^ a b NZ Herald (27 February 2018). "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". NZ Herald. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
- ^ Newshub (13 February 2018). "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
- ^ Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
- ^ "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
- ^ Keogh, Brittany (6 August 2020). "Election 2020: Doctor, businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat". Stuff. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ "National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany". The New Zealand Herald. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ Ensor, Jamie (15 September 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Jami-Lee Ross won't contest Botany electorate". Newshub. Retrieved 15 September 2020.
- ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday". Roy Morgan. 14 October 2020.
- ^ Whyte, Anna (15 October 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
- ^ O'Brien, Tova (16 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain". Newshub.
