Japanese House of Councillors election, 2013

Japanese House of Councillors election, 2013

2010 ← July 11, 2013 → 2016

121 (of the 242) seats in the House of Councillors   First party Second party   Leader Banri Kaieda Shinzō Abe Party Democratic Liberal Democratic Last election 106 seats 39.0% (prefectural) 31.6% (proportional) 84 seats 33.4% (prefectural) 24.1% (proportional) Seats before 85 84

Seats up for election (party affiliations as of 2007 and not accounting for by-elections) ■ – DPJ ■ – LDP ■ – NKP ■ – JCP ■ – PNP ■ – SDP ■ – Independents

President of the House of Councillors before election Kenji Hirata Democratic Elected President of the House of Councillors TBD

Japan
This article is part of the series: Politics and government of Japan
Constitution Constitution (history)
Emperor Emperor (List) Akihito Imperial Household Agency Imperial House
National Diet House of Representatives House of Councillors
Government Prime Minister (List) Shinzō Abe Deputy Prime Minister Tarō Asō Cabinet Ministries
Judiciary Judicial system
Prefectures Prefectures Governors (list)
Elections Elections House of Councillors Last election Next election House of Representatives: Last election Next election
Political parties Major parties Liberal Democratic Democratic Restoration New Kōmeitō Third parties
Foreign relations Foreign policy Foreign relations
Other countries Atlas Politics portal

The 23rd Elections to the House of Councillors (第23回参議院議員通常選挙, Dainijūsankai Sangiingiin Tsūjōsenkyo, "23rd regular/ordinary election of members of the House of Councillors") for the upper house of the National Diet, the legislature of Japan, is expected to be held in July, 2013. In the last election in 2010, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) remained strongest party, but the DPJ-led ruling coalition lost its majority. The House of Councillors is elected by halves to six year terms. In 2013, the class of Councillors elected in 2007 will be up.

Overview of races

Note: Composition as of March 22, 2013; one vacant seat from the class of 2010 is to be filled in an April 2013 by-election.

↓
62	45	26	6	10	35	58
Opposition seats not up	DPJ seats up	O	V	NK	LDP seats up	Coalition seats not up

Councillors up	Coalition		Opposition										Vacant	Change by reapportionment	Seats up in 2013
	LDP	NK	DPJ	PLP	GW	JCP	YP	SDP	JRP	PNP	NRP	Ind.
in 29 single-member districts	6	0	12	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	29
in 2 two-member districts reapportioned to one seat	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2
in 10 other two-member districts	10	0	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20
in 6 3+-member districts	5	3	8	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	+2	22
in the national proportional	13	7	15	3	1	3	0	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	48
Total	35	10	45	6	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	4	5	–	121

Single-member districts

Single-member districts for the House of Councillors (Sangiin ichinin-ku ja:参議院一人区) often play a crucial role for the overall outcome of a regular election as they can be swung completely with relatively little change in popular vote whereas the SNTV multi-member districts and the proportional seats are usually shared between ruling camp and opposition. In the 2007 Councillors election, the single-member districts were won by 6 members from the then ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and 23 members of the DPJ-led opposition. In 2010, the LDP picked up seven seats in single-member districts.

Incumbents, party affiliations and some already declared candidates are:

District	Incumbent	Party	Notes	Announced candidates (incomplete and subject to change until official campaign start)
Aomori	Kōji Hirayama	PLP	Elected as a Democrat	Kōji Hirayama (PLP) Motome Takisawa (L) Yō Yoshimata (JCP)
Iwate	Tatsuo Hirano	D		Tatsuo Hirano (D) Yukio Kikuchi (JCP)
Akita	Daigo Matsuura	D		Daigo Matsuura (D) Matsuji Nakaizumi (L)
Yamagata	Yasue Funayama	Green Wind	Elected as a Democrat	Yasue Funayama (Green Wind) Mizuho Ōnuma (L) Toshio Ōta (JCP)
Fukushima (currently 2MD, reapportionment)	Emi Kaneko	D		Masako Mori (L) Emi Kaneko (D) Tomo Iwanaga (JCP)
	Masako Mori	L
Tochigi	Hiroyuki Tani	D		Hiroyuki Tani (D) Kazunori Koike (JCP)
Gunma	Ichita Yamamoto	L		Ichita Yamamoto (L)
Toyama	Takashi Morita	I	Elected for the PNP with Democratic endorsement	Takashi Morita (I) Shigeru Dōko (L) Wataru Takahashi (JCP)
Ishikawa	Yasuo Ichikawa	D		Yasuo Ichikawa (D) Shūji Yamada (L) Ryōsuke Kameda (JCP)
Fukui	Ryūji Matsumura	L	Retires	? (L) ? (D) Kazuo Yamada (JCP)
Yamanashi	Harunobu Yonenaga	YP	Elected as a Democrat	Harunobu Yonenaga (YP) Akiko Endō (JCP)
Gifu (currently 2MD, reapportionment)	vacant, last held by Takao Fujii (JRP, elected as an independent, later temporarily rejoined L)
	Kenji Hirata	D
Mie	Chiaki Takahashi	D		Chiaki Takahashi (D) Tamihide Nakagawa (JCP)
Shiga	Hisashi Tokunaga	D		Hisashi Tokunaga (D) Ikuo Tsubota (JCP)
Nara	vacant, last held by Tetsuji Nakamura (PLP, elected as a Democrat)			Ikuo Horii (L) Kazuhiro Tanigawa (JCP)
Wakayama	Hiroshige Sekō	L		Hiroshige Sekō (L) Yasuhisa Hara (JCP)
Tottori	Yoshihiro Kawakami	D		Yoshihiro Kawakami (D) Shōji Maitachi (L) Naoyuki Iwanaga (JCP)
Shimane	Akiko Kamei	Green Wind	Elected for the PNP with Democratic endorsement	Akiko Kamei (Green Wind) Shin'ichi Mukose (JCP)
Okayama	vacant, last held by Yumiko Himei (TPJ, elected as a Democrat)			Masahiro Ishii (L) Kyōmi Kakiuchi (JCP)
Yamaguchi	Yoshimasa Hayashi	L		Yoshimasa Hayashi (L)
Tokushima	Tomoji Nakatani	D		Tomoji Nakatani (D) Tōru Miki (L)
Kagawa	Emiko Uematsu	D		Emiko Uematsu (I) Shingo Miyake (L) Ken'ichi Tanabe (JCP)
Ehime	vacant, last held by Toshirō Tomochika (TPJ, elected as an independent, later D)
Kōchi	Norio Takeuchi	D		Norio Takeuchi (D) Kōjirō Takano (L) Yuriko Hamakawa (JCP)
Saga	Minoru Kawasaki	I	Elected as a Democrat, retires	Yūhei Yamashita (L) Yasutoshi Kamimura (JCP)
Nagasaki	Yukishige Ōkubo	D		Yukishige Ōkubo (D)
Kumamoto	Nobuo Matsuno	D		Nobuo Matsuno (D) Seishi Baba (L) Tetsuo Ueno (JCP)
Ōita	Yōsuke Isozaki	L		Yōsuke Isozaki (L) Kai Yamashita (JCP)
Miyazaki	vacant, last held by Itsuki Toyama (TPJ, elected as an independent, later D)			Makoto Nagamine (L)
Kagoshima	Yoshito Kajiya	L		Hidehisa Otsuji (L) Hiroshi Noguchi (JCP)
Okinawa	Keiko Itokazu	I/OSMP	Elected formally as an independent with Democratic endorsement	Keiko Itokazu (I)

Under legislation to reduce vote inequality jointly submitted by the two major parties, two more prefectures would become single-member districts from 2013: Fukushima and Gifu.

Two-member districts

All two-member districts elected one Democrat and one Liberal Democrat in 2007. Districts where the two incumbents in the 2007 class do not belong to the two major parties are currently (as of December 28, 2012):

• Gifu where the seat of former Liberal Democrat Takao Fujii is vacant, and
• Niigata and Hiroshima where former Democrats Yūko Mori and Kōji Satō are now members of the PLP.

Three- and five-member districts

In several of the more urbanized three- and five-member districts, Democrats have two incumbents in the 2007 class of Councillors: In Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa and Aichi the DPJ had won two seats. In 2010, Democrats only succeeded to win two seats in Tokyo and Aichi. Incumbents in the 2007 class and party affiliations are (as of March 22, 2013; in each district sorted by vote share in descending order):

• Saitama: Kuniko Kōda (Your Party, elected as a Democrat), Toshiharu Furukawa (L), Ryūji Yamane (D)
• Chiba: Hiroyuki Nagahama (D), Jun'ichi Ishii (L), Ken Kagaya (D)
• Tokyo: Masako Ōkawara (D), Natsuo Yamaguchi (NK), Kan Suzuki (D), Tamayo Marukawa (L), Ryūhei Kawada (Your Party)
• Kanagawa: Hiroe Makiyama (D), Masashi Mito (JRP, elected as a Democrat), Akira Matsu (NK)
• Aichi: Kōhei Ōtsuka (D), Seiji Suzuki (L), Kuniko Tanioka (Green Wind, elected as a Democrat)
• Ōsaka: Satoshi Umemura (D), Kazuyoshi Shirahama (NK), Shūzen Tanigawa (L)

Under the reapportionment bill deliberated in the Diet, Kanagawa and Ōsaka would become four-member districts.

Proportional representation

In the national proportional representation race, the DPJ defends 15 seats in the class of 2007. 13 seats are held by Liberal Democrats (as of December 26, 2012). Kōmeitō has seven proportional seats up in 2013 – in the 2010 proportional race, it lost the status as third largest party to Your Party.

Incumbent proportional Councillors whose seats are up in 2013 include New Renaissance Party president Yōichi Masuzoe (elected as top Liberal Democrat with 470,571 votes in 2007), People's New Party president Shōzaburō Jimi (117,590 votes in 2007), JRP member and former minister of state Kyōko Nakayama (385,909.714 votes, rank 3 as a Liberal Democrat in 2007) and for the major parties former Liberal Democratic foreign minister Yoriko Kawaguchi (261,403 votes in 2007) and Finnish-born Democrat Marutei Tsurunen (242,742 votes, rank 6 on the Democratic list in 2007). Also up are three proportional Councillors from the PLP.

Opinion polling for proportional seats

In the run up to the election, various organizations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions for the available proportional seats. Polls are listed in chronological order, showing the oldest first.

Date	Institute
		LDP	DPJ	JRP	NKP	YP	PLP	JCP	U/O
9-10 March	TBS/JNN	37.5%	8.1%	3.6%	2.2%	2.7%	-	2.2%	43.7%
23-24 March	Fuji News Network	41.8%	5.3%	9.6%	-	4.7%	-	-	-
April	Kyodo News	48.2%	6.7%	10.4%	3.9%	4.5%	0.5%	3.2%	22.6%

Note:

• U/O: Undecided or Other

See also

• Elections in Japan
• Japanese House of Councillors election, 2010
• Japanese general election, 2009

External links

• realpolitics.jp: Long-term monthly cabinet and party approval rates, overview of polls from various news organizations (Japanese)