Timeline of the far future

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For lists of nearer future events, see Timeline of the future.
A black hole. Most models of the far future of the Universe suggest that eventually, these will be the only remaining celestial objects.

While predictions of the future can never be absolutely certain, this list of predictions follows from present scientific understanding and models. These fields include astrophysics, which has revealed how planets and stars form, interact and die; particle physics, which has revealed how matter behaves at the smallest scales, and plate tectonics, which shows how continents shift over millennia.

All predictions of the future of the Earth, the Solar System and the Universe must account for the second law of thermodynamics, which states that entropy, or a loss of the energy available to do work, must increase over time.[1] Stars must eventually exhaust their supply of hydrogen fuel and burn out; close encounters will gravitationally fling planets from their star systems, and star systems from galaxies. Eventually, matter itself will come under the influence of radioactive decay, as even the most stable materials break apart into subatomic particles. However, as current data suggest that the Universe is flat, and thus will not collapse in on itself after a finite time,[2] the infinite future potentially allows for the occurrence of a number of massively improbable events, such as the formation of a Boltzmann brain.

These timelines cover events from roughly eight thousand years from now to the farthest reaches of future time. A number of alternate future events are listed to account for questions still unresolved, such as whether humans survive, whether protons decay or whether the Earth will be destroyed by the Sun's expansion into a red giant.

Future of the Earth, the Solar System and the Universe

Years from now Event
36,000 Ross 248 passes within 3.024 light years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun.[3]
42,000 Alpha Centauri becomes the nearest star system to the Sun once more.[3]
50,000 According to the work of Berger and Loutre,[4] at this time the current interglacial ends, sending the Earth back into an ice age, assuming limited effects of anthropogenic global warming.

Niagara Falls erodes away the remaining 32 km (20 mi) miles to Lake Erie and ceases to exist.[5]

50,000 Because of tidal acceleration, the astronomical day will now be about 86,401 SI seconds. Under the present day timekeeping system, a leap second will need to be added to the clock every day.[6]
100,000 Proper motion (the movement of stars through the galaxy) will render the constellations unrecognisable.[7]

The hypergiant star VY Canis Majoris will have likely exploded in a hypernova.[8]

100,000 By this time, Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 400 km3 of magma.[9]
250,000 Lo'ihi, the youngest volcano in the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain, will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a new volcanic island.[10]
500,000 By this time Earth will have likely suffered an impact by a meteorite of roughly 1 km (0.62 mi) in diameter, assuming humans cannot avert it.[11]
1 million By this time, Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 3200 km3 of magma; an event comparable to the Toba supereruption 75,000 years ago.[9]
1 million Highest estimated time until the red supergiant star Betelgeuse explodes in a supernova. The explosion is expected to be easily visible in daylight.[12][13]
1.4 million Gliese 710 passes within 1.1 light years of the Sun, potentially disturbing the Solar System's Oort cloud and increasing the likelihood of a comet impact in the inner Solar System.[14]
10 million The widening East African Rift valley is flooded by the Red Sea, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent of Africa.[15]
11 million The moon Phobos collides with the surface of Mars.[16]
50 million Due to its northward movement along the San Andreas Fault, the Californian coast begins to be subducted into the Aleutian Trench.[17]

Africa will have collided with Eurasia, closing the Mediterranean Basin and creating a mountain range similar to the Himalayas.[18]

100 million By this time, the Earth will have likely been impacted by a meteorite comparable in size to that which triggered the K–Pg extinction 65 million years ago.[19]
~240 million From its present position, the Solar System will have completed one full orbit of the Galactic center.[20]
250 million All the continents on Earth fuse into a possible supercontinent. Three potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed Amasia, Novopangaea, and Pangaea Ultima.[21][22]
600 million As weathering of Earth's surfaces increases with the Sun's luminosity, carbon dioxide levels in its atmosphere decrease. By this time, they will fall to the point at which C3 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plants which utilize C3 photosynthesis (~99 percent of species) will die.[23]
600 million Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from Earth that total solar eclipses are no longer possible.[24]
~800 million Carbon dioxide levels fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plant species die. Free oxygen eventually disappears from the atmosphere.[23] Multicellular life dies out.[25]
1 billion The Sun's luminosity increases by 10%, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of 47 °C (117 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.[26] Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.[27]
1.3 billion Eukaryotic life dies out. Only prokaryotes remain.[25]
1.5–1.6 billion The Sun's increasing luminosity causes its circumstellar habitable zone to move outwards; all life on Earth dies.[25]

Conversely, as carbon dioxide increases in Mars's atmosphere, its surface temperature rises to levels akin to Earth during the ice age.[28]

~2.3 billion Approximate time until the Earth's outer core freezes, if the inner core continues to grow at its current rate of 1 mm per year.[29][30]
3 billion Median point at which the Moon's increasing distance from the Earth lessens its stabilising effect on the Earth's axial tilt. As a consequence, Earth's true polar wander becomes chaotic and extreme.[31]
3.3 billion 1% chance that Mercury's orbit may become so elongated as to collide with Venus, sending the inner Solar System into chaos and potentially leading to a planetary collision with Earth.[32]
3.5 billion Surface conditions on Earth are comparable to those on Venus today.[33]
3.6 billion Neptune's moon Triton falls through the planet's Roche limit, potentially disintegrating into a new planetary ring system.[34]
4 billion Median point by which the Andromeda Galaxy will have collided with the Milky Way.[35]
5.4 billion With the hydrogen supply exhausted at its core, the Sun leaves the main sequence and begins to evolve into a red giant.[36]
7.5 billion Earth and Mars may become tidally locked with the expanding Sun.[37]
7.9 billion The Sun reaches the tip of the red giant branch, achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present day value.[36] In the process, Mercury, Venus and possibly Earth are destroyed.[38]

During these times, it is possible that Saturn's moon Titan could achieve surface temperatures necessary to support life.[39]

8 billion Sun becomes a carbon-oxygen white dwarf with about 54.05% its present mass.[40][41][42]
14.4 billion Sun becomes a black dwarf as its luminosity falls below three trillionths its current level, while its temperature falls to 2239 K, making it invisible to human eyes.[43]
20 billion The end of the Universe in the Big Rip scenario.[44] Observations of galaxy cluster speeds by the Chandra X-Ray Observatory suggest that this will not occur.[45]
50 billion Assuming both survive the Sun's expansion, by this time the Earth and the Moon become tidelocked, with each showing only one face to the other.[46][47] Thereafter, the tidal action of the Sun will extract angular momentum from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth to spin up.[48]
100 billion The Universe's expansion causes all evidence of the Big Bang to disappear beyond the practical observational limit, rendering cosmology impossible.[49]
450 billion Median point by which the Local Group, the collection of ~47 galaxies to which the Milky Way belongs,[50] will coalesce into a single large galaxy.[51]
1012 (1 trillion) Low estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars.[51], §IID.
2×1012 (2 trillion) All galaxies outside the Local Supercluster are no longer detectable in any way, assuming that dark energy continues to make the Universe expand at an accelerating rate.[52]
3 x 1013 (30 trillion) Estimated time for the black dwarf Sun to undergo a close encounter with another stellar remnant in the local Solar neighborhood. Whenever two objects pass close to each other, the orbits of their planets can be disrupted and the planets can be ejected from orbit around their parent objects. Planets with closer orbits take longer to be ejected in this manner on average because a passing object must make a closer pass to the planet's primary to eject the planet.[53][51], §IIIF, Table I.
1014 (100 trillion) High estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies.[51], §IID. This marks the transition from the Stelliferous Era to the Degenerate Era; with no free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die.[54]
1.1–1.2×1014 (110–120 trillion) Approximate time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars low-mass red dwarfs, have lifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years).[51] After this point, the only stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants (white dwarfs, neutron stars and black holes.) Brown dwarfs also remain.[51] §IIE.
1015 (1 quadrillion) Estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in the Solar System from their orbits.[51], §IIIF, Table I.

By this time, the Sun will have cooled to five degrees above absolute zero.[55]

1019 to 1020 Estimated time until brown dwarfs and stellar remnants are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other, they exchange orbital energy with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. The lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner through repeated encounters to be ejected from the galaxy. This process causes the galaxy to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.[51], §IIIA;[56]
1020 Estimated time until the Earth's orbit around the Sun decays via emission of gravitational radiation,[57] if the Earth is neither first engulfed by the red giant Sun a few billion years from now[58][59] nor ejected from its orbit by a stellar encounter before then.[57]
2×1036 The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable Universe to decay, if the proton half-life takes its smallest possible value (8.2 x 1033 years).[60][61]
3×1043 Estimated time for all nucleons in the observable Universe to decay, if the proton half-life takes the largest possible value, 1041 years,[51] assuming that the Big Bang was inflationary and that the same process that made baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early Universe makes protons decay.[61] By this time, if protons do decay, the Black Hole Era, in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.[54][51]
1065 Assuming that protons do not decay, estimated time for rigid objects like rocks to rearrange their atoms and molecules via quantum tunneling. On this timescale all matter is liquid.[57]
1.7×10106 Estimated time until a supermassive black hole with a mass of 20 trillion solar masses decays by the Hawking process.[62] This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the Universe enters the Dark Era, in which all physical objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final energy state.[54][51]
101500 Assuming protons do not decay, the estimated time until all matter decays to iron-56.[57]
[a] Low estimate for the time until all matter collapses into black holes, assuming no proton decay.[57] Subsequent Black Hole Era and transition to the Dark Era are, on this timescale, instantaneous.
Estimated time for a Boltzmann brain to appear in the vacuum via a spontaneous entropy decrease.[63]
Estimated time for random quantum fluctuations to generate a new Big Bang, according to Caroll and Chen.[64]
High estimate for the time until all matter collapses into black holes, again assuming no proton decay.[57]
High estimate for the time for the Universe to reach its final energy state.[63]
Scale of an estimated Poincaré recurrence time for the quantum state of a hypothetical box containing an isolated black hole of stellar mass.[65] This time assumes a statistical model subject to Poincaré recurrence. A much simplified way of thinking about this time is that in a model in which history repeats itself arbitrarily many times due to properties of statistical mechanics, this is the time scale when it will first be somewhat similar (for a reasonable choice of "similar") to its current state again.
Scale of an estimated Poincaré recurrence time for the quantum state of a hypothetical box containing a black hole with the mass within the presently visible region of the Universe.[65]
Scale of an estimated Poincaré recurrence time for the quantum state of a hypothetical box containing a black hole with the estimated mass of the entire Universe, observable or not, assuming Linde's chaotic inflationary model with an inflaton whose mass is 10−6 Planck masses.[65]

Astronomical events

This lists predicted extremely rare astronomical events from the beginning of the 11th millennium AD (Year 10,000)

Years from now Event
~8,000 Earth's axial precession makes Deneb the North star.[66]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Mercury will occur on August 20, 10,663 AD.[67]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day The planets Mercury and Venus will both cross the ecliptic at the same time.[67]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Mercury will occur on August 25, 11,268 AD.[67]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day A simultaneous annular solar eclipse and transit of Mercury will occur on February 28, 11,575 AD.[67]
10,000 Earth's axial tilt reaches a minimum of 22.5 degrees.[68]

The Gregorian calendar will be roughly 10 days out of sync with the Sun's position in the sky.[69]

Error: Second date should be year, month, day A simultaneous transit of Venus and Mercury will occur on 17 September 13,425 AD.[67]
13,000 The Earth's axial precession will make Vega the North Star.[70]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Venus will occur on April 5, 15,232 AD.[67]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day A simultaneous annular solar eclipse and transit of Mercury will occur on April 20, 15,790 AD.[67]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day In 20,874 AD the lunar Islamic calendar and the solar Gregorian calendar will share the same year number. After this, the shorter Islamic calendar will slowly overtake the Gregorian.[71]
27,000 The eccentricity of Earth's orbit will reach a minimum, 0.00236 (it is now 0.01671).[72]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day A transit of Uranus from Neptune, the rarest of all planetary transits, will occur in October, 38,172 AD.[73]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day On March 1, 48,901 AD, the Julian calendar (365.25 days) and Gregorian calendar (365.2425 days) will be one year apart.[74]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day The planets Mercury and Venus will both cross the ecliptic at the same time.[67]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day A simultaneous transit of Venus and Mercury will occur on July 26, 69,163 AD.[67]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day Respectively, on March 27 and March 28 224,508 AD, Venus and then Mercury will transit.[67]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day A simultaneous transit of Venus and the Earth as seen from Mars will occur in 571,741 AD.[67]
~230 million Beyond this time, the orbits of the planets become impossible to predict.[75]

Spacecraft and space exploration

To date five spacecraft (Voyagers 1 and 2, Pioneers 10 and 11 and New Horizons) are on trajectories which will take them out of the Solar System and into interstellar space. Barring an unlikely collision, the craft should persist indefinitely.[76]

Years from now Event
10,000 Pioneer 10 passes within 3.8 light years of Barnard's Star.[76]
25,000 The Arecibo message, a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974, reaches its destination, the globular cluster Messier 13.[77] This is the only interstellar radio message sent to such a distant region of the galaxy.
40,000 Voyager 1 passes within 1.6 light years of AC+79 3888, a star in the constellation Camelopardalis.[78]
50,000 The KEO space time capsule, if it is launched, will reenter Earth's atmosphere.[79]
296,000 Voyager 2 passes within 4.3 light years of Sirius, the brightest star in the night sky.[78]
300,000 Pioneer 10 passes within 3 light years of Ross 248.[80]
2 million Pioneer 10 passes near the bright star Aldebaran.[81]
4 million Pioneer 11 passes near one of the stars in the constellation Aquila.[81]

Technology and culture

Years from now Event
10,000 Estimated lifespan of the Long Now Foundation's several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as the Clock of the Long Now, the Rosetta Project, and the Long Bet Project.[82]
10,000 The end of humanity, according to Brandon Carter's Doomsday argument, which assumes that half of the humans who will ever have lived have already been born.[83]
100,000 – 1 million years According to Michio Kaku, time by which humanity will be a Type III civilisation, capable of harnessing all the energy of the galaxy.[84]
5–50 million years Time by which the entire galaxy could be colonised, even at sublight speeds.[85]
Error: Second date should be year, month, day At 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 AD, the Unix time stamp will exceed the largest value that can be held in a signed 64-bit integer.[86]

Note

^ is 1 followed by 1026 (100 septillion) zeroes. Although listed in years for convenience, the numbers beyond this point are so vast that their digits would remain unchanged regardless of which conventional units they were listed in, be they nanoseconds or star lifespans.

Graphical timelines

For graphical, logarithmic timelines of these events see:

See also

References

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  73. ^ Calculated using Aldo Vitagliano's SOLEX software. 2011-09-30.
  74. ^ Manually calculated from the fact that the calendars were 10 days apart in 1582 and grew further apart by 3 days every 400 years.
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