United States presidential election in Connecticut, 2004

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United States presidential election in Connecticut, 2004
Connecticut
2000 ←
November 2, 2004
→ 2008

  John F. Kerry.jpg George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 857,488 693,826
Percentage 54.31% 43.95%

Connecticut Presidential Election Results by County, 2004.svg

County Results
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—50-60%

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Connecticut took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 7 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Connecticut was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a margin of 10.4%. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. In presidential elections, Connecticut is usually expected to fall into the Democrats' electoral vote column, as no Republican has won the state since 1988. Although Connecticut was the birth state of George W. Bush, and the Bush family does have a house in the state, Connecticut was never considered competitive in 2004.

Primaries[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Predictions[edit]

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
  6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling[edit]

Kerry won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll averaged Kerry leading 52% to 42% for Bush and 2% for Nader.[2]

Fundraising[edit]

Bush raised $4,256,438.[3] Kerry raised $4,195,038.[4]

Advertising and visits[edit]

Neither campaign visited or advertised in this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis[edit]

All counties but Litchfield County and congressional districts went Democratic. Litchfield County is regarded as the most conservative county in the state, along with adjacent Fairfield County to the south, although this county does tend to vote majority Democratic. Hartford County, Middlesex County, New Haven County, and New London County each are regarded as the most loyally democratic counties in Connecticut. The Republican Party's last presidential victory in Connecticut dates back to 1988 election of George H. W. Bush. However, Kerry's victory in Connecticut was not as large as Al Gore's lead in 2000, when the then-vice president won the state by 17.47% percent and a majority of all the state's counties. However in 2000 Gore's running mate was Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman.

George W. Bush lost Connecticut decisively even though he was born in New Haven and is part of a family that has been a political dynasty in Connecticut for much of the 20th century. Despite his family background, as a presidential candidate Bush was considered a Texan and largely perceived as a Southern candidate, and consequently he had little appeal to voters in Northeastern states like Connecticut.

Results[edit]

United States presidential election in Connecticut, 2004[7]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 857,488 54.31% 7
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 693,826 43.95% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 12,969 0.82% 0
Green David Cobb 9,564 0.61% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 3,367 0.2% 0
Concerned Citizens Party Michael Peroutka 1,543 0.1% 0
Write In Roger Calero 12 0.0% 0
Totals 1,578,769 100.00% 7
Voter turnout (Voting Age population) 59.6%

Results breakdown[edit]

By county[edit]

Counties are listed in order of % of Kerry vote : the last column shows the county winner in 2000 and the gain of the Democratic party between the two elections.

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others# 2000 result
Hartford 58.7% 229,902 39.5% 154,919 1.8% 6,987 −1.5
Middlesex 56.3% 47,292 42.0% 35,252 1.7% 1,440 +1.4
New London 55.8% 66,062 42.2% 49,931 2.0% 2,367 +0.4
Tolland 54.6% 39,146 43.6% 31,245 1.9% 1,338 +1.6
New Haven 54.3% 199,060 43.8% 160,390 1.9% 6,942 -3.7
Windham 52.1% 25,477 45.7% 22,324 2.2% 1,060 +2.5
Fairfield 51.4% 205,902 47.3% 189,605 1.4% 5,460 -0.9
Litchfield 46.2% 44,647 51.9% 50,160 1.9% 1,861 -1.7

By congressional district[edit]

Kerry won all 5 congressional districts.

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 39% 60% John Larson
2nd 44% 54% Rob Simmons
3rd 42% 56% Rosa DeLauro
4th 46% 52% Christopher Shays
5th 49% 49% Nancy Johnson

Electors[edit]

Technically the voters of Connecticut cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Connecticut is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Connecticut. All were pledged to John Kerry and John Edwards:

  1. Elizabeth O'Neill
  2. Andrea J. Jackson-Brooks
  3. Donna King
  4. Larry Pleasant
  5. David J. Papandrea
  6. Andres Ayala
  7. Joshua King

References[edit]

See also[edit]