Talk:Origin of COVID-19

The mainstream scientific view of the origins of SARS-CoV-2

This article leans heavily towards the conspiracy theories about the lab leak, but does not emphasize the mainstream scientific view, that the virus spilled over naturally. The mainstream scientific view should be explained and given much more weight in the article. -Thucydides411 (talk) 09:49, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I'm not quite sure that this is the mainstream opinion. The mainstream opinion is likely closer to that it *probably* spilled from animals, perhaps due close contact between people are animals but further research is required. I agree it would be good to have some scientific literature on the piece Talpedia (talk) 17:44, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

This article is about documenting the investigations taking place. I don't understand why you removed details relating to US government investigations and replaced it with "US government claims", and counterclaims, covered by sources from last year. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 10:00, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I included a more complete description of the claims made by the Trump administration. I actually included more information about the actual investigations being conducted by US intelligence, as opposed to claims made by Trump and Pompeo. -Thucydides411 (talk) 10:17, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

And why did you remove the section about how the investigations were formally initiated? Who wants to hear about what Trump in the very opening of a section about US government proceedings which had nothing to do with him? ScrupulousScribe (talk) 10:25, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

It's poorly sourced, and not obviously DUE. The only source given is a PDF of a letter from the White House to the NAS, which is a primary source. Is there any secondary coverage of this letter? -Thucydides411 (talk) 11:32, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I hear you about the primary source. But shouldn't this section be focused on the investigation activities of the US government, as opposed to all the "he says and she says" of the virus origins as it is now? The way the section read before was just chronicling known investigation activities, and while I agree that it said more about investigations into lab leak, that is only because there weren't a lot of statements about investigating other origin scenarios (because the US doesn't have access to the WIV or HSWM to do that). The US approach has been quite skewed towards alternative scenarios, and it will be hard for this article not to reflect that. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 13:33, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Relying on primary sourcing is a form of original research. You're deciding which part of which primary documents to include (for example, you didn't include the part of the letter that asks the scientists to look into an HIV-related conspiracy theory). Unless there are secondary sources, this material has to go. -Thucydides411 (talk) 14:36, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I wasn't so familier with the WP:PRIMARY policy and I thought the White House website would naturally be a good reference for a letter they put out. Please can you advise on content changes or on better sources, keeping within the focus of this page; which is investigations taking place by different national and international governments and organisations? ScrupulousScribe (talk) 15:43, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

WP:SECONDARY sources are what are needed. But if this material is just based on primary sources, then it should be removed. -Thucydides411 (talk) 20:29, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

"Mainstream" is mainstream because there is sufficient reliable and verifiable sources to support it, not because what one thinks is "mainstream". I object to a lot of what User:Thucydides411 did in their editorial decisions. In particular, instead of adding new "mainstream" sources and content, they deleted large chunks of texts and reliable sources they deemed "not mainstream". I would like to remind them of WP:NPOV, WP:PRESERVE, and WP:NOTCENSORED regarding any future edits they make. Normchou ^💬 15:20, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Yes, certainly. Keep in mind, this is also a political controversy. Therefore, removing something that Pompeo said just because that was Pompeo is wrong. The official views by US government are obviously important. If these views will change in a future on that matter (I doubt), then it can be corrected. My very best wishes (talk) 18:26, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Origin Scenarios

I added an "Origin Scenarios" section, based on the "Classifications" found in Wikipedia's entry on Emerging infectious disease, which is in turn based on a paper by two gentlemen named David M. Morens and Anthony S. Fauci. I thought it would be valuable to have proper classifications of emerging infectious diseases, so that reports of investigations into different origin scenarios aren't conflated with each other. I am unsure why this section was removed instead of improved (it would not have been hard to find the source in the page it linked to). ScrupulousScribe (talk) 16:15, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I removed it because it was entirely unsourced. Its relevance here is also questionable. This article should be about the scientific investigations into the origin of the virus, but instead, it focuses almost entirely on conspiracy theories. -Thucydides411 (talk) 16:23, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

The four classifications of emerging infectious diseases, which can be sourced in the paper I link to above, defines origin scenarios (which the investigations will presumably investigate). I am not sure what you mean about conspiracy theories. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 16:46, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Normchou, I propose to end the "Unkown Origins" with the sentence ending "remain unknown", as many laypeople do not know this as fact. I propose to spin of a new "Origin Scenarios" section directly below (like the one I created here) to posit theoretical origin scenarios, of which there are four (described by Fauci in the above-mentioned paper), or by Chan in this diagram, explained as succinctly as possible, taking into account points from Forich's "Messy Terminology" post on the WIV talk page here. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 18:15, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Currently none of these theories are supported by unequivocally convincing evidence, so I think they should be kept as is under the "unknown origin" section without being unduly represented elsewhere. Once more evidence from reliable sources comes out, we can discuss about re-arranging the content. Normchou ^💬 18:22, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

They aren't so much "theories" as they are "scenarios", which serve to explain how infectious diseases immerge. "Newly emerging infectious diseases" would be better than "natural accident", as it better describes the process of zoonosis. The second classification of "Re-emerging infectious diseases" talks to the allegations being made by Chinese MFA spokeswoman Hua Chunying that Covid-19 possibilty originating elsewhere in the world at an earlier date. The "Deliberately emerging infectious diseases" scenario was alleged by the likes of Li-Meng Yan, which have largely been discredited. The "Accidentally emerging infectious diseases" would be the more scientifically accurate than "laboratory accident", or possible escape of a laboratory animal, or improper disposal of waste, etc. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 18:34, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Talpedia, please can you consider estimating probabilities of one origin scenario or mechanism of transmission in a second section on "Origin Scenarios", and not the "Uknown Origins" section itself. I don't think we want to present the presupposition findings of the investigation before its concluded. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 18:56, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Hmm... I think we should give WP:DUE weight to the current scientific consensus on sources early on in the article... and what gets written in systematic reviews is kind of consensus. Talpedia (talk) 19:01, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I agree, but I am just talking about a matter of style. I think its best to first establish that the origins of the virus are unknown, and then to get into its evolutionary history, the identity and provenance of its most recent ancestors, and the place, time, and mechanism of transmission of the first human infection (Zoonotic or otherwise).

Also, I would say there is a scientific consensus on the virus originating in bats, so I think "agreed" would be better than "appears". There is still some debate over origins in Pangolins, so "appears" is better there. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 19:06, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I'm not quite sure that the consensus is that originated in bats, the consensus is that we don't really know but probably bats - I sort of think that scientific knowledge includes uncertainty. We could move the consensenus into the lead and add some context for style. This could fix the flow... Talpedia (talk) 20:10, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

@Talpedia: According to PMID 32945405 (a review), it is certainly of bat origin. To quote:

The genomic and bioinformatic analyses of the aforementioned studies, as well as the results of previous studies, confirm that the virus originated in bats and this way put an end to all conspiracy theories regarding this issue.

I don't think any reliable source now demurs from that view on viral origin, does it? Alexbrn (talk) 09:14, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

The source used to cite the sentence does: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32724171/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32920565/ I picked that source out of the reviews you identified on another page as the "most relevant one" - I didn't like the fact that the review you quote here was more broad ("social...") but perhaps it has other things going for it. Like being more recent. Talpedia (talk) 09:44, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

Whoa, PMID 32724171 is a primary source and shouldn't be used - especially when on-point secondary sourcing is available. Alexbrn (talk) 09:48, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

Whoops, I used the wrong URL above (fixed). Yup that's a primary source that someone added for the *bat* rather than pangolin origin I think. It should be replaced with a secodary source. I commented on this (a little vaguely) here, and just edited this comment to be less vague. Talpedia (talk) 10:24, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

POVFORK

It's becoming increasingly clear that this page was created as a WP:POVFORK for conspiracy-theory material that has been rejected elsewhere (e.g., at Wuhan Institute of Virology). The same sourcing standards apply here as elsewhere, and the heavy emphasis on conspiracy theories should be replaced with an emphasis on the actual scientific investigations into the origin of CoVID-19. -Thucydides411 (talk) 16:19, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

 Disagree Per WP:POVFORK, the accusation of "POV fork" should only be done under extreme circumstances such as persistent disruptive editing, unless the accusing editors themselves are prone to POV-based judgements. Normchou ^💬 16:24, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Please note that the discussion on Talk:Wuhan Institute of Virology and Talk:Misinformation related to the COVID-19 pandemic has not reached a consensus, and I see that you have been asked by Forich on your talk page to help shortlist MEDRS/RS sources. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 16:53, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Not sure I agree. This is clearly not a content work of Wuhan Institute of Virology because it is covering political matters on investigation, not just the institute. Further, this material might detract from the page on covid 19 which should probably be more medical in focus and less to do with investigation and current affairs. I would be more open to the argument that this might be a fork of sections on the covid page.

I think the material should be augmented with more scientific material. Talpedia (talk) 17:58, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

The concern about povfork is valid because some previous attempts obviously were. This article has a better scope and enjoyed more scrutiny, in its current state I wouldn't consider it an unambiguous point-of-view fork. To help, the lead should probably include a statement about the current state of research and maybe a mention about conspiracy theories while leaving those outside of the article's scope (it has its own article). —PaleoNeonate – 02:51, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

I would suggest that instead of getting into the conspiracy theories in the lead, it would be better to have an "origin scenarios" section below the "origins" section, so as to fully encompass all possibilities in the scope of scientific investigation. The two main conspiracy theories that have been propagated relate to biowarfare, as proposed in a paper by Li-Meng Yan, which has been picked apart and disproven, and HIV inserts, as proposed in a paper by Luc Montagnier, who retracted it. Within the scope of science, there are really only three scenarios that can be investigated (nifty diagram here), while allegations of biowarfare can only be investigated by a UN agency similar to that of the IAEA, which currently doesn't exist, though it may very well come come up later this year at the Ninth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 02:47, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

Interesting sources and drama

• Talk:Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology contains a detailed discussion on some sources that might be relevant here.
• It also contains a bunch of drama if you should decide it is necessary to be more concerned in the properties of editors than the content of the article. Something that should, I feel, be done sparingly. Talpedia (talk) 18:19, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Major POV problems

I share the concerns expressed above about this article. I have tagged the entire article as violating WP:NPOV, and specifically highlighted this sentence, which I think illustrates the problems:

The "lab leak theory" has become increasingly difficult to ignore in light of the coincidences and circumstantial evidence that continue to accumulate

This sentence is a serious violation of neutrality. It provides WP:GEVAL to a minority viewpoint, rather than treating it like the minority viewpoint that it is. It has a breathless, unencyclopedic WP:TONE that is better suited for an unprofessional podcast. Instead of relying on the highest quality sources (e.g., reputable scholarly review articles) to give WP:DUE weight to various viewpoints, it cites a news article. It also indicates that it's "increasingly difficult to ignore" it on grounds of scientific plausibility (rather than, e.g., because of its political effects), which is another violation of WP:DUE and incompatible with WP:MEDRS and WP:SCIRS.

There might be a good encyclopedia article to be written on this subject, but this isn't that article, and these aren't those sources.

I think this could be addressed by seriously shortening the article to report, e.g., a simple list of the major investigations that have happened (keeping WP:DUE weight in mind to exclude distantly related, poorly conducted, or "studies" that amount to a politician dictating the results because the US wants to blame China, Russia wants to blame the US, Palestinians want to blame Israel, etc.). WhatamIdoing (talk) 19:04, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I can't help but agree. My proposal (above) is to simply lay out the four different origin scenarios that are presumably being investigated, as per Emerging_infectious_disease#Classification (see Fauci paper as source there), and lay off on the running commentary a to which scenario is more likely or plausible than the other. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 19:14, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Maybe we should just revert back to your early version, which did not have such serious problems. WhatamIdoing (talk) 19:19, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Its harder to strip off content at this stage. I am mainly concerned about the removal of the removal of "Origin Scenarios", because now "Unknown Origins" has become a dump. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 19:29, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I do not see POV problems as serious you have described. If you actually read the "news article" it provides quite some useful information regarding this minority view which can be easily sourced using the provided links and Google (scholar) search. For example:

It's true the coronaviruses isolated from pangolins show similarities to both RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2, leading researchers to posit a bat virus and pangolin virus may have swapped genetic material some time ago in a process called recombination, and this may have given rise to the novel coronavirus. This has since been billed as unlikely. [1]

...

And the pangolin coronavirus data was unusual. Chan and her collaborator Shing Zhan studied the sequences, highlighting a number of inconsistencies between the major studies and questioning missing or unpublished data in a preprint paper posted to bioRxiv [2]. She points to one Nature paper as "dishonest" and says it involves "scientifically unacceptable" practices like publishing samples under different names and the inclusion of deceptive figures. On Nov. 11, Nature added an editors' note [3] to that paper, alerting readers to these concerns. An investigation is ongoing, though the authors have stated these were honest mistakes.

...

In light of these oddities, and earlier research examining the pangolin coronaviruses, microbiologist Roger Frutos believes the creatures should be "exonerated." Yet, as recently as Jan. 8 [4], the pangolin is still being brokered as a potential starting point in the origins of COVID-19 by Shi Zhengli and other scientists. Any continued focus on the pangolin, Frutos notes, risks misleading investigations into the origins of the disease.

...

In 2004, two lab workers at the National Institute of Virology in Beijing became ill with pneumonia. They had inadvertently been infected with the SARS coronavirus after "two separate breaches of bio-safety," according to the WHO. The accident resulted in 11 cases and one death, only a year after the SARS outbreak had been contained.

...

"The second, third, fourth and fifth entries of the original SARS coronavirus into human populations occurred as a laboratory accident," says Richard Ebright, a chemical biologist at Rutgers University who has long had concerns about the safe use of high-level biosafety laboratories.

...

Shi considered this possibility when she first heard about a new coronavirus spreading in Wuhan, according to an interview given to Scientific American on March 11. [5] Other researchers, too, have contemplated such a scenario.

...

The task force features 10 researchers, approved by the Chinese government... The most contentious scientist on the team is Peter Daszak. As the head of EcoHealth Alliance, a nonprofit that studies spillover events, Daszak has been a collaborator of over 15 years with the WIV's Shi Zhengli, helping fund research and surveilling bat coronaviruses in China to ascertain how the next pandemic might begin... But Daszak's close relationship with the WIV is also seen by many as a conflict of interest when it comes to the WHO's investigation.

...

"A lab leak situation could directly threaten all of that," says Sainath Suryanarayanan, a staff scientist at investigative nonprofit US Right To Know looking into the origin story. This should not be taken as evidence of a vast conspiracy spearheaded by Daszak and the Chinese to cover up a lab leak. It merely highlights the conflicts of interest presented by Daszak's inclusion. Under these circumstances, can the investigation hope to find any evidence of a leak? "I have zero confidence left in the WHO team," Chan says.

...

Normchou ^💬 19:36, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I think you are extrapolating well beyond what those quotations say. Consider, e.g., the quotation that "The second, third, fourth and fifth entries of the original SARS coronavirus into human populations occurred as a laboratory accident."

Does that tell you anything about the origin of the first SARS outbreak? No.

Does the origin of any SARS outbreak tell you anything about the origin of COVID-19 outbreak? No.

And yet you seem to be quoting these as if that will convince us that since a different pre-existing natural virus infected a lab worker and then spread to the general population, then this new virus must also have come from a lab accident.

That is exactly as illogical as believing that HIV was produced in a lab just because some lab workers were later infected while handling contaminated materials. WhatamIdoing (talk) 19:56, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I'm afraid you've made a mistake by making this into one about how specific arguments should or should not be made within a topic, which I have no interest in. My comment is only intended to address your WP:NPOV concern, which is about representing fairly, proportionately, and, as far as possible, without editorial bias, all the significant views that have been published by reliable sources on a topic. Normchou ^💬 20:07, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

None of this is from "reliable sources on a topic", and none of this represents "significant views" about the science. WhatamIdoing (talk) 21:28, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Okay, but that's only your opinion. I encourage other editors to read the article [6], click on the links to the research papers and other reliable sources provided in the article, and make their own judgments regarding the purported POV issue. Normchou ^💬 05:26, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

Pangolins

Hey @WhatamIdoing: I added back pangolins because it's mentioned in the source with what appears to be equal prominence to bats. Is this outdated? Talpedia (talk) 19:04, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I believe that it's outdated, but we should check a better source. WhatamIdoing (talk) 19:13, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

There is nothing wrong with mentioning pangolins, but then one must also include other refs which say that the intermediate hosts probably were not pangolins or that the intermediate host is actually unknown.My very best wishes (talk) 19:18, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I found this source in Talk:Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology#Shortlist this list that User:Alexbrn wrote earlier this month. There might be something more recent there.... Talpedia (talk) 19:22, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

The current source for pangolins vs bats (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32724171/) is a primary source with a bunch of genetics. It would be better if we could get a secondary source. edit: Talpedia (talk) 22:21, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

WP:MEDRS

Given that WP:MEDRS was used as a purported reason for one of the reverts, here is the genuine question of how WP:MEDRS relates to this article. WP:MEDRS itself supports the general sourcing policy, with addition attention paid to medical content. But to what extent is the source-tracing of a virus medical in nature? In my opinion, WP:MEDRS should not be abused in non-medical context within this article. Normchou ^💬 19:07, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

@Normchou, MEDRS applies to every "scientific" statement about a virus that causes a disease in humans. So, for example, MEDRS applies when deciding whether the virus originated in bats vs pangolins vs some other way, but MEDRS does not apply when deciding which people traveled to which countries on which dates. WhatamIdoing (talk) 19:15, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I do not see what you've described in WP:MEDRS, which says it deals with "all biomedical information", not "every 'scientific' statement about a virus that causes a disease in humans". Wikipedia:Biomedical information gives more context but I see no mention of "a virus that causes a disease in humans". There are a lot of other perspectives, both scientific and non-scientific, in the investigation into the source of a virus, whether it can directly cause a human disease or not. Normchou ^💬 19:50, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

MEDRS covers biomedical information, and editors can, and do, treat "scientific" information about viruses that infect humans as being biomedical information. If you would like, I can start a quick RFC for you, but after hanging out with Wikipedia:WikiProject Medicine for the last 14 years, and writing Wikipedia:Biomedical information myself, I already know what the result will be. WhatamIdoing (talk) 19:59, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I would rather discuss the issue at hand instead of highlighting my "tenure" and "contributions" to give the impression of being an "authority" on Wikipedia, which I am not and never intend to be so. I alluded to Wikipedia:Biomedical information because it is a reference I find useful, but I am also fully aware of its caveat that This page is not one of Wikipedia's policies or guidelines, as it has not been thoroughly vetted by the community. If there is community consensus that this article cannot escape the long arm of WP:MEDRS, then I respectfully accept it. Normchou ^💬 20:26, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Based on Wikipedia:Biomedical information, something like virus (including evolution of viruses) or water would not be covered, however any information on how they affect human health would be covered. My very best wishes (talk) 02:23, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

• Agree This is much more reasonable than every "scientific" statement about a virus that causes a disease in humans. Also, Wikipedia:Biomedical information itself has not been thoroughly vetted by the community, which I believe further limits its power in terms of "jurisdiction" beyond its normal boundaries. At any rate, I don't think this article will have any information on "how something affects human health". Normchou ^💬 03:19, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

  That page says, under the section heading "What is biomedical information?", that this type of content is covered by MEDRS:

  Biomedical research

  Information about clinical trials or other types of biomedical research that address the above entries or allow conclusions to be made about them.

  I wonder why you think that lab research into the origin of a virus is not "biomedical research" that addresses the entry above labeled "Attributes of a disease or condition" (specifically "how it is caught", since we are talking about how the first person caught this virus). WhatamIdoing (talk) 03:47, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

• I think what you've suggested above is highly misleading. We are not here to talk about the biological and physiological characteristics and mechanisms of the viral infection process in the first person who got COVID-19. How the first person caught this virus? in the context of this article is semantically more or less equivalent to "Where did the virus that infected the first person come from?"The subject of the article is the virus' origin. It has nothing to do with the first person who got COVID-19, or their body, or their immune system, or their organs, or their cells, or their antibodies, or whatever specious "biomedical aspect" inappropriately imposed, so that as long as someone shouts "Not WP:MEDRS!", it can have the destructive effect of censoring significant viewpoints supported by reliable sources. Normchou ^💬 04:36, 21 January 2021 (UTC); edited 04:51, 21 January 2021 (UTC); edited 05:03, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

I think one should simply follow WP:RS and use common sense. For example, something like that or that or that I think would be OK to source that we do not know who was "patient zero" (arguably, an epidemiology question). My very best wishes (talk) 17:10, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

CNET

I question the use of this source to promote speculations of "increasingly difficult to ignore". It is a type of computer tech magazine that is considered reliable for tech news like computers and video games... —PaleoNeonate – 19:21, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Yes, this must be rephrased. Too POV-ish. My very best wishes (talk) 19:23, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

We should probably not be using a computer magazine as a source in this article at all. WhatamIdoing (talk) 19:48, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Agreed. Even if the origin of a disease somehow weren't a scientific question, I wouldn't be going to get my news about it from people whose latest story is "HBO subscribers: Watch Wonder Woman 1984 for free with HBO Max before it leaves Jan. 24". XOR'easter (talk) 19:55, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I had a search for "better" sources related to this. I was wondering whether "polling" or "politics" journals might be good sources. A lot of the material seems to be about "conspiracy theories" which isn't exactly useful for this. We are interested in promience separate of whether something is a conspiracy or not and "prominence amongst people who matter". Talpedia (talk) 20:03, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I think that it depends upon how you conceptualize the subject of the article. My impression from looking at the early versions is that the idea was to make a list of significant research projects, rather than to describe the results of those studies and the scientific consensus. If I've understood the goal, then this is more like a "List of major grants to study COVID's origins" than "Conspiracy theories about COVID's origins" or "Scientific consensus about the origins of SARS-CoV-2" article.

What's clear to me is that much of what's on the page right now needs to go. WhatamIdoing (talk) 21:26, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Yes. A "list of major grants and projects" type of article would be justifiable, I think, and statements about the existence of a project and who's involved with it are easier to source than scientific hypotheses. The current text seems rather far from that and needs a lot of work. (For example, it takes the State Department's accusations at face value, when the best secondary sources so far available cast doubt upon their significance, calling them little beyond insinuation.) XOR'easter (talk) 21:47, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

The claim was "difficult to ignore". If most people thought that this needed investigating (polling) or most "important people" (e.g. scientists, doctors, politicians) felt that it needed to be investignted then this claim becomes quite technical. Grants are another way of measuring what people care about. The claim as it stands seems to mostly be the impression of the author of the quote rather than something that is objective, even in a loose sense. This sort of claim about "public mood" seems to turn up a bit in history Talpedia (talk) 22:06, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

I think the above thread is very confusing and unconstructive, because no one is really discussing the actual CNET source: the content, the viewpoints, the links to research papers and other reliable sources, etc. I encourage other editors who have a genuine interest in improving this article to read the sources and make their judgments. Normchou ^💬 05:43, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

This was specific to this material that used a suboptimal source to make a questionable claim. The source appears to have been reintroduced albeit not to support the same sentence. —PaleoNeonate – 08:23, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

Scope and subject of this article

There have been several comments in different sections above, so I'd like to have a single discussion here:

What is this article about?

My best guess at the moment is that this article

1. includes an overview of the major research programs and projects by governments (and the World Health Organization) that are entirely or primarily dedicated to identifying the origin of the virus
   • For example, "The Foo Department of Ruritania opened an investigation into viral DNA in pangolins in Octember 2020".
   • However, it should exclude most details, e.g., the exact date on which a project was formally commissioned.
   • However, it should exclude all "minor" research projects and all projects that provide some information about its origin as a byproduct of research intended for some other, non-origin-related purpose (e.g., if research on a vaccine happens to provide some bit of information that is relevant to origin-focused research)
2. includes (or will, eventually) a very brief statement about the results (if any) from those research programs
   • For example, "They published a paper claiming that pangolins have DNA".
   • Most of the content should not be scientific. Most of content should be about politics and bureaucracies.
3. includes a brief background statement about the current dominant theory (sourced to MEDRS sources)
   • For example, "As of January 2021, the virus that causes COVID-19 is believed to have originated in bats and spread to humans through natural means in late 2019"
   • Could also include links to {{see also|Misinformation related to the COVID-19 pandemic#Origin misinformation}} and {{see also|Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2#Reservoir and zoonotic origin}}
4. excludes all private research programs (e.g., research projects at pharmaceutical companies, projects funded by grants from private foundations)
5. excludes all conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus
6. excludes everything that politicians say about the origin of the virus
   • unless it is something that doesn't even hint at a scientific claim, e.g. "Paul Politician said that this million-dollar taxpayer-funded research program would help struggling Ruritania's biotech sector"
7. excludes almost everything else that The Internet has to say about the origin of the virus
8. excludes all theories that aren't the primary focus of a major government-sponsored research program or project
   • For example, if there are no major government-sponsored research programs or projects investigating pangolins (or cell phone towers, or lab accidents, or whatever else might be on the list), then we don't mention the pangolins in this article.

Does this sound about right to you? User:ScrupulousScribe, I particularly hope to hear your view, since you started this article. WhatamIdoing (talk) 03:42, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

• Comment. I just want to reminder everyone of the community policies Adding information to Wikipedia and WP:NOTPERFECT. Imposing ex ante restrictions regarding what can or cannot be added to an article is neither necessary nor in line with the spirit of the project. Other than that, feel free to discuss. Normchou ^💬 03:55, 21 January 2021 (UTC); Edited 03:57, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

It would also be "neither necessary nor in line with the spirit of the project" to take an article written by one editor about government programs and turn it into an article about virus origin stories. If we agree that these are separate subjects, then we do kind of need to figure out which one belongs on this page... WhatamIdoing (talk) 05:57, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

WP:DUE is also part of the WP:NPOV policy, —PaleoNeonate – 17:37, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

No. Dueness is contingent on actual reliable sources, in proportion to the prominence of each viewpoint WP:DUE. It is an empirical or "ex post" requirement. Imposing ex ante restricts on what can or cannot appear in an article without seeing the actual RSes has little to do with dueness. Normchou ^💬 17:55, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

"Dueness" is dependent upon actual reliable sources about the subject of the article, which necessarily means that we need to know what the subject of the article is. One cannot say that there have been more and better reliable sources written about cancer, and thus all the COVID-related articles are going to talk about cancer instead. We need to decide what the subject of this article is before we can figure out what the actual reliable sources are. If the subject is "what actions governments are taking to discover the origin", then that's different content (with different, mostly non-MEDRS sources) than "where did the virus actually originate". We might need articles on both subjects, but I do not think we will write anything worthwhile so long as different editors have different ideas about what the subject ought to be. WhatamIdoing (talk) 05:39, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

Again, no. A Wikipedia article is in a process of evolution (Wikipedia:Content assessment#Evolution of an article – an example, outreach:Life of an Article), with the boundary of its content also continuously adjusting as new RSes and viewpoints emerge. If an article gets too large, part of it can be moved to other articles or spinned off as separate articles (Wikipedia:Article size#Readability issues). It is unrealistic and against the spirit of Wikipedia to suggest that an entire article is unworthy or should stop being improved just because some editors have not reached consensus about some aspect of it. On the other hand, your imaginary all the COVID-related articles are going to talk about cancer scenario is susceptible to being a slippery slope, whereas in reality, article improvement is almost always done in a piecemeal, incremental fashion—as it should be in an evolutionary process—with various checks and balances throughout the process. Normchou ^💬 07:03, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

• No, #4,5,6,7,8 are unacceptable and go against WP:NPOV. All of that should be included. It does not matter if something was publicly or privately funded. It does not matter if something was published "on the Internet" if it qualifies as a WP:RS. No, the claims on political controversies do not need to be "scientific". In addition, if there are notable conspiracy theories or controversies related/about the subject of the page, they must be included on the page. Note the "investigation" in that case is not only science, it may involve journalistic investigations, such as that one. My very best wishes (talk)
  • My very best wishes, I'd like to hear more about this. Are you saying that it's POVish to have separate articles on government actions and private actions? Would you similarly say that an article about the role of the pharmaceutical companies in researching COVID treatments is inherently POVish, and that if we're going to have an article about research, it needs to mix together corporate, charitable, and government research in one massive article? WhatamIdoing (talk) 05:42, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
• Support - I think that this is a great start to clearly establish the article's scope. In relation to 5 we already have another article, although I think it would be appropiate for the lead or a hatnote to link there from this article. For 6, political statements are often part of journalistic reporting and may go in various other relevant (often regional) article timelines when WP:DUE. —PaleoNeonate – 17:37, 21 January 2021 (UTC)
• Support Makes sense, overall; I could probably quibble with this point or that, but that would trend into hair-splitting, and I doubt it would be productive. All the above points are in line with the general principle that we write about things when we have documentation that they are significant in sources reliable enough for the topic, rather than deciding what is important first and then dropping our standards until we have "sources" that talk about it. And it's entirely in accord with policy to draw a line around a subject and say that for organizational purposes, other things are off-topic in a particular article. XOR'easter (talk) 19:25, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

• Comment I guess this discussion is mostly about defining what is due and not at a high level for the article. Regarding conspiracy theories: Presumably the problem with conspiracy theories is that they generate a lot of "noise" with limited actual research, and therefore have a tendency to gain mindshare and prominence through this, rather than that real concern - this in turn influences the press. This influence may also push into politics. For example, a program might exist to dispell conspiracy theories. I am not sure if excluding conspiracy theories is a stated aim of wikipedia other than WP:Due (see also WP:Fringe). Of course to add to the murk, the label conspiracy theory of conspiracy theorist can be used to political exclude ideas that are true from discourse. I think if the investigators themselves state the aim of a program is to investigate the topic of something that is a conspiracy theory in the technical sense (shared on the internet as a conspiracy and behaving like a conspiracy theory) then we should still mention this fact. We should not arbitrarily exclude content because it happens to be conspiracy theory. That said, the exist of conspiracy theory will create undue attention in the popular press, so I think we should only include this if this is the topic of the investigation itself. E.g. if an aim is to investigate the lab leak then we shouldn't suppress this, but if a popular press piece mentions conspiracy theories in the content of the investigation we should not Talpedia (talk) 19:37, 21 January 2021 (UTC)
  • "Due weight" must be defined by the coverage in RS per WP:NPOV. Google scholar finds almost nothing on the subject of this page. However, search in Google news does produce a lot of hits, even like that (a news article in "Nature"). Hence, this is not a scientific, but mostly a political subject. It the subject of the page was more general, i.e. simply Origin of COVID-19 rather than "investigations" by WHO, journalists, whoever (as long as this is published in RS), that might be partly different. Therefore, the suggestion above (i.e. focusing on MEDRS sources that are sorely lacking) does not make any sense and goes against WP:NPOV. As about your another question, please see Category:Fairy tales, Category:Conspiracy theories, Category:Science fiction, religious subjects, etc. All of them are valid encyclopedic subjects. My very best wishes (talk) 21:56, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

    • "Due weight" must be defined by the coverage in RS per WP:NPOV

      . I guess, but conspiracy theories can render what sources *would* be reliable less likely to be reliable because the "din" of the conspiracy theory distract the author - if something is contentious it is best to "go the science" rather than listen to din. I would prefer to fix this by trying hard to find good sources rather than moving line to exclude sources that would be considered reliable on less contentious topics - but the lack of sources on covid makes this difficult. I agree that at the moment this is mostly a political subject. I guess I meant more how to respond to existence of conspiracy theories surrounding a topic, rather than whether conspiracy theories should be included. Talpedia (talk) 22:33, 21 January 2021 (UTC)
      • it is best to "go the science". I 100% agree, but I just do not see much on this specific subject. Where is the specific population of bats this virus came from? What was the intermediate host, and how exactly the involvement of this host was scientifically proven? Who was patient zero, and how he/she was found? That must be emphasized on this page. But if there are no scientifically solid answers to these questions, then we only have speculations and political controversies. My very best wishes (talk) 23:03, 21 January 2021 (UTC)
        • I would hope that there is still "scientific" speculation and political theory in the sense that a community try as hard as possible to obtain some sort of truth and opens itself to critique. If this exists, it is to be preferred to newspaper articles in conspiracy-theory-laden topics. Talpedia (talk) 23:23, 21 January 2021 (UTC)
          • Of course there is WHO paper, but it does not give any answers. Our page COVID-19_pandemic#Background provides a fair description of how little is known. Obviously, there is a significant sequence similarity with other bat viruses, hence no one doubts it did came from bats. So yes, this is a zoonotic disease. But the virus could pass through a lab and even be easily modified in a lab, at least in theory. What gives me a pause are the actions by Chinese government to suppress information and a few other details, some (not all) can be found here. My very best wishes (talk) 00:57, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
  • Talpedia, I largely agree with what you're saying. If there is a serious investigation of some sort into the origins of Covid-19 and 5G mobile networks that is being reported in reliable sources that meet WP:RS, then by all means lets find a space somewhere in this article to give it a mention, but I highly doubt that will come about. In the meantime, I think we should focus on the real scientific investigations taking place, and the main scenarios being investigated. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 03:10, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
    • You probably can not comment on article talk pages on subjects covering your topic ban. My very best wishes (talk) 03:42, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
      • I think I have been able to avoid talking about the specific subject of the topic I am banned from. I wasn't aware that I couldn't participate on the talk page of this Covid-19 page, so I'll hit the pause button, just in case. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 04:38, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

  @Talpedia, I think 'the problem with conspiracy theories', with respect to this article, is that I believe that the subject of the article is supposed to be major research programs run by actual government agencies, which is usually the opposite of conspiracy theories. It's not that we can't find reliable sources; it's that there aren't any government agencies producing ideas like "the virus was caused by radiation from cell phone towers". WhatamIdoing (talk) 05:48, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

WhatamIdoing But the investigatory groups do seem to be specifically considering the lab leak hypothesis which is probably a "conspiracy theory" in the technical sense. From the lancet group:

"The possibility of laboratory involvement in the origins of the pandemic should be examined with scientific rigour and thoroughness, and with open scientific collaboration."

. This existence of this prominent conspiracy theory has perhaps influenced their writing and the when *journalists* report on it they might sort of "mixup" science, conspiracy theory and politics. Talpedia (talk) 08:34, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

• Comment WhatamIdoing, would it be possible for us to use numbering instead of bulleting? You've listed a lot of good points worth considering on their own, and also in relation to each other. For example, I agree with 1.1, but disagree with 1.2, and 1.3 in relation to each other, as many vaccine research papers (like this one) also include a lot of origin research, because its not possible to create a vaccine for a virus without understanding certain aspects of its origins and in particular if/how it has stabilised (as that paper explains in great detail).

Furthermore, I agree with 2.1 but I think 2.2 needs to be clarified, as if it is a scientific research program, then the content should be scientific, and if it is a government organization that made a statement, such as the US gov (which claimed to have a whistleblower), then I don't think the content of the statement needs to be scientific (they can't "out" their source in this case).

I don't agree with 3, and on that note, I don't agree with the editors who removed the "Unknown Origins" section of this article, as there are currently no "dominant" theories as to the origin of the virus, and we need to distinguish between the matters of which species of animal the virus originated from, from the matter of the mechanism of transmission of the first human infection, as while there is a firm scientific consensus on the former (it's bats and pangolins), there is no scientific consensus on the latter (there are several scenarios). I would like for the "Unknown Origins" section to be restored, as it more accurately presents the position of the WHO as stated in its "terms of reference" document for its investigation, and I think it would be more prudent for the weighting of different origin scenarios by their plausibility be moved into an "Origin Scenarios" section below, based on statements made by scientists in reliable sources, but avoiding any language that would indicate there is a clear consensus in the wider scientific community for any given scenario (unless there is indeed such a consensus, which can only be the result of a truly "open scientific investigation" by a truly independent organization, like the World Health Organisation, devoid of the issues it currently has). MEDRS would not be applicable here, as unless there is a truly open scientific investigation by an organisation (like the WHO), or forensic evidence of some sort (like the intermediate host or virus), then no origin scenario can be truly proven (despite what the given MEDRS might claim). Please also read this post from Forich on proper terminology relating to determining the origins of the virus.

I am not sure if I agree or disagree with 4, as like I noted above, most vaccine research includes some origin research, but WP:DUE and WP:RS should apply as to which private organization is worth mentioning for what.

I am not sure if I agree with 5, as I think the two most prolific conspiracy theories ("biowarfare" and "HIV inserts") and their debunkage should be covered in "origin scenarios", so that they are not conflated with other scenarios that may share certain aspects that I can't talk about (topic ban).

I somewhat agree on 5, and I think the comments by Trump and Pompeo should be removed from the article, as they do not speak as to which investigations were made by their administration (likely ongoing) and what their findings were (likely unclear). However, WP:DUE should apply here, and the comments from Iain Duncan Smith (quoted in The Times article above) revealing the contents of a classified virtual meeting held with Matthew Pottinger (about the whistleblower and Potemkin exercise), are worth including.

On 7, do you mean "The Internet" as in user generated content, or also reliable sources? Wired just published a piece on the origins of the virus (you will have to Google it because it's subject of a topic I'm banned from talking about), and I don't think they have a paper edition, so I don't think we should exclude the entire internet.

I'm not sure if I agree on 8, as though I find it unlikely that a real investigation can get underway without government funding, there is always the possibility of an outlier making a relevant discovery worthy of mention, such as Alina Chan's paper, which sparked much of the debate around a topic I am banned from talking about (sorry, but you can Google her paper).

Overall, I agree with your sentiment that this article should have some scope, and when I started it, the intention was to report the findings of the various different investigations taking place, but also to report on the circumstances of the investigations, and any relevant matters relating to the scientific process.

ScrupulousScribe (talk) 04:35, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

On 7, I definitely mean "the internet" in a way that excludes high-quality reliable sources that happen to be available on the web. Think Blogosphere, Twitterverse, Internet memes, etc., rather than major news media or academic journals. WhatamIdoing (talk) 05:58, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

In that case, I agree, but doesn't Wikipedia have a policy about UGC anyway? I just checked here, and it says that content from such sites is "generally unacceptable". I wonder if this allows for content in some circumstances. ScrupulousScribe (talk) 08:58, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

• Support: this is a good baseline. Above all, there should be much more focus on scientific investigation into the origins of the virus, including the WHO mission. I don't think that the claims made by the Trump administration should be labeled an "investigation", particularly given the reporting about the political nature of the claims (e.g., the NY Times reported that the Trump administration pressured the intelligence agencies to find evidence to support a pre-determined conclusion, and German intelligence told the German government that the Trump administration's claims were likely deliberate misinformation). -Thucydides411 (talk) 13:15, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

Content removal

Regarding the content that User:Thucydides411 removed:

While it is a known fact that scientists at a lab in Wuhan have conducted ongoing research on coronaviruses, a U.S. official said that the results of the investigation were "inconclusive".

It directly summarizes these two sentences from the RS:

But scientists at a military and a civilian lab in Wuhan, where the virus originated, are known to have conducted ongoing research on coronaviruses, officials say.

Asked about the intelligence on NBC's "TODAY" show, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said, "this is something we've been watching closely now for some time," adding that the results of the investigation are thus far "inconclusive."

---

Regarding the content they removed:

The hypothesis was one of several possibilities being pursued by the investigators.

It directly summarizes this sentence of the RS they removed:

The theory is one of multiple being pursued by investigators as they attempt to determine the origin of the coronavirus that has resulted in a pandemic and killed hundreds of thousands.

---

Regarding the content they removed:

The official highlighted the lack of an independent team inside China.

It directly summarizes this sentences from the RS:

"No one's able to stay one way or the other," the official said, highlighting -- as American officials have -- the lack of an independent team on the ground. "We just don't know enough," the official added.

I have not examined the new materials they introduced, but will do it later today. If this kind of WP:SNEAKY behavior continues, I will file a report at ANI to have an uninvolved admin to further scrutinize their conduct.

Normchou ^💬 14:29, 22 January 2021 (UTC)