Sustainable population: Difference between revisions

Content deleted Content added

Inline

Revision as of 23:48, 20 October 2021

Sustainable population refers to a proposed sustainable human population of Earth or a particular region of Earth, such as a nation or continent.

When evaluating global population, estimates vary widely, with estimates based on different figures ranging from 0.65 billion people to 98 billion, with 8 billion people being a typical estimate. Projections of population growth, evaluations of overconsumption and associated human pressures on the environment have led to some to advocate for what they consider a sustainable population. Proposed policy solutions vary, including sustainable development, female education, family planning and broad human population planning.

Estimates

Many studies have tried to estimate the world's sustainable population for humans, that is, the maximum population the world can host.^[1] A 2004 meta-analysis of 69 such studies from 1694 until 2001 found the average predicted maximum number of people the Earth would ever have was 7.7 billion people, with lower and upper meta-bounds at 0.65 and 98 billion people, respectively. They conclude: "recent predictions of stabilized world population levels for 2050 exceed several of our meta-estimates of a world population limit".^[2] A 2012 United Nations report summarized 65 different estimated maximum sustainable population size and the most common estimate was 8 billion.^[3]^[4]

Advocates of reduced population often put forward much lower numbers. Paul R. Ehrlich stated in 2018 that the optimum population is between 1.5 and 2 billion.^[5] Geographer Chris Tucker estimates that 3 billion is a sustainable number.^[6] The Georgia Guidestones recommend 500 million. There are other estimates, often of a number less than 8 billion.^[7]^[8]

Critics of overpopulation criticize the basic assumptions associated with these estimates. For example, Jade Sasser believes that calculating a maximum of number of humanity which may be allowed to live while only some, mostly privileged European former colonial powers, are mostly responsible for unsustainably using up the Earth, is wrong.^[9]

Carrying capacity

Talk of economic and population growth leading to the limits of Earth's carrying capacity for humans are popular in environmentalism.^[10] The potential limiting factor for the human population might include water availability, energy availability, renewable resources, non-renewable resources, heat removal, photosynthetic capacity, and land availability for food production.^[11] The applicability of carrying capacity as a measurement of the Earth's limits in terms of the human population has not been very useful, as the Verhulst equation does not allow an unequivocal calculation and prediction of the upper limits of population growth.^[10] Carrying capacity has been used as a tool in Neo-Malthusian arguments since the 1950s.^[12] The concept of carrying capacity has been applied to determining the population limits in Shanghai, a city faced with rapid urbanization.^[13]

The application of the concept of carrying capacity for the human population, which exists in a non-equilibrium, is criticized for not successfully being able to model the processes between humans and the environment.^[10]^[14] In popular discourse the concept has largely left the domain of academic consideration, and is simply used vaguely in the sense of a "balance between nature and human populations".^[14]

In human ecology a popular definition from 1949 states "the maximum number of people that a given land area will maintain in perpetuity under a given system of usage without land degradation setting in". Sociologists have criticized this for numerous reasons. Aside from the fact that humans are able to adopt new customs and technology, some common critiques are 1.) an assumption an equilibrium population exists, 2.) difficulties in measuring resources, 3.) inability to account for human tastes and how much labour they will expend, 4.) assumption of full usage of resources, 5.) assumption of landscape homogeneity, 6.) assumption that regions are isolated from each other, 7.) contradicted by history, and 8.) the standard of living is ignored.^[14]

Romanian American economist Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, a progenitor in economics and a paradigm founder of ecological economics, has argued in 1971 that the carrying capacity of Earth — that is, Earth's capacity to sustain human populations and consumption levels — is bound to decrease sometime in the future as Earth's finite stock of mineral resources is presently being extracted and put to use.^[15]^: 303 Leading ecological economist and steady-state theorist Herman Daly, a student of Georgescu-Roegen, has propounded the same argument.^[16]^{: 369–371}

References

^ Cohen, J.E. (1995). How many people can the earth support? W.W. Norton & Company, New York, NY, USA.
^ Van Den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.; Rietveld, Piet (2004). "Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction". BioScience. 54 (3): 195. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0195:RTLTWP]2.0.CO;2. ISSN 0006-3568.
^ One Planet, How Many People? A Review of Earth’s Carrying Capacity United Nations, June 2012
^ How Many People Can Our Planet Really Support? BBC, Vivien Cumming, 14 March 2016
^ Carrington, Damian (March 22, 2018). "Paul Ehrlich: 'Collapse of civilisation is a near certainty within decades'". The Guardian. Retrieved August 8, 2020.
^ A PLANET OF 3 BILLION | Kirkus Reviews.
^ Current Population is Three Times the Sustainable Level worldpopulationbalance.org
^ What is the optimal, sustainable population size of Humans? overpopulation-project.com, Patrícia Dérer, April 25, 2018
^ Sasser, Jade (13 November 2018). On infertile ground : population control and women's rights in the era of climate change. New York. ISBN 978-1-4798-7343-2. OCLC 1029075188.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)
^ ^a ^b ^c Seidl, Irmi; Tisdell, Clem A (1999-12-01). "Carrying capacity reconsidered: from Malthus' population theory to cultural carrying capacity". Ecological Economics. 31 (3): 395–408. doi:10.1016/S0921-8009(99)00063-4. ISSN 0921-8009.
^ VAN DEN BERGH, JEROEN C. J. M.; RIETVELD, PIET (2004). "Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction". BioScience. 54 (3): 195. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0195:rtltwp]2.0.co;2. ISSN 0006-3568.
^ Sayre, N. F. (2008). "The Genesis, History, and Limits of Carrying Capacity". Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 98: 120–134. doi:10.1080/00045600701734356. JSTOR 25515102. S2CID 16994905.
^ Zhang, Yingying; Wei, Yigang; Zhang, Jian (2021). "Overpopulation and urban sustainable development—population carrying capacity in Shanghai based on probability-satisfaction evaluation method". Environment, Development and Sustainability. 23 (3): 3318–3337. doi:10.1007/s10668-020-00720-2. ISSN 1387-585X.
^ ^a ^b ^c Cliggett, Lisa (2001). "Carrying Capacity's New Guise: Folk Models for Public Debate and Longitudinal Study of Environmental Change". Africa Today. 48: 3–19. doi:10.1353/at.2001.0003. S2CID 143983509.
^ Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas (1971). The Entropy Law and the Economic Process (Full book accessible at Scribd). Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0674257801.
^ Daly, Herman E., ed. (1980). Economics, Ecology, Ethics. Essays Towards a Steady-State Economy (PDF contains only the introductory chapter of the book) (2nd ed.). San Francisco: W.H. Freeman and Company. ISBN 978-0716711780.

[1] Cohen, J.E. (1995). How many people can the earth support? W.W. Norton & Company, New York, NY, USA.

[Van_Den_BerghRietveld2004-2] Van Den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.; Rietveld, Piet (2004). "Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction". BioScience. 54 (3): 195. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0195:RTLTWP]2.0.CO;2. ISSN 0006-3568.

[3] One Planet, How Many People? A Review of Earth’s Carrying Capacity United Nations, June 2012

[4] How Many People Can Our Planet Really Support? BBC, Vivien Cumming, 14 March 2016

[5] Carrington, Damian (March 22, 2018). "Paul Ehrlich: 'Collapse of civilisation is a near certainty within decades'". The Guardian. Retrieved August 8, 2020.

[6] A PLANET OF 3 BILLION | Kirkus Reviews.

[7] Current Population is Three Times the Sustainable Level worldpopulationbalance.org

[8] What is the optimal, sustainable population size of Humans? overpopulation-project.com, Patrícia Dérer, April 25, 2018

[9] Sasser, Jade (13 November 2018). On infertile ground : population control and women's rights in the era of climate change. New York. ISBN 978-1-4798-7343-2. OCLC 1029075188.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)

[:12-10] Seidl, Irmi; Tisdell, Clem A (1999-12-01). "Carrying capacity reconsidered: from Malthus' population theory to cultural carrying capacity". Ecological Economics. 31 (3): 395–408. doi:10.1016/S0921-8009(99)00063-4. ISSN 0921-8009.

[11] VAN DEN BERGH, JEROEN C. J. M.; RIETVELD, PIET (2004). "Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction". BioScience. 54 (3): 195. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0195:rtltwp]2.0.co;2. ISSN 0006-3568.

[informaworld.com-12] Sayre, N. F. (2008). "The Genesis, History, and Limits of Carrying Capacity". Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 98: 120–134. doi:10.1080/00045600701734356. JSTOR 25515102. S2CID 16994905.

[13] Zhang, Yingying; Wei, Yigang; Zhang, Jian (2021). "Overpopulation and urban sustainable development—population carrying capacity in Shanghai based on probability-satisfaction evaluation method". Environment, Development and Sustainability. 23 (3): 3318–3337. doi:10.1007/s10668-020-00720-2. ISSN 1387-585X.

[Cliggett-14] Cliggett, Lisa (2001). "Carrying Capacity's New Guise: Folk Models for Public Debate and Longitudinal Study of Environmental Change". Africa Today. 48: 3–19. doi:10.1353/at.2001.0003. S2CID 143983509.

[15] Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas (1971). The Entropy Law and the Economic Process (Full book accessible at Scribd). Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0674257801.

[16] Daly, Herman E., ed. (1980). Economics, Ecology, Ethics. Essays Towards a Steady-State Economy (PDF contains only the introductory chapter of the book) (2nd ed.). San Francisco: W.H. Freeman and Company. ISBN 978-0716711780.

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

[9]

[10]

[11]

[12]

[13]

[14]

[15]

[16]

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-{{Duplication|date=September 2021|dupe=Human overpopulation}}
 '''Sustainable population''' refers to a proposed [[sustainable]] human [[World population|population of Earth]] or a particular region of Earth, such as a nation or continent.
@@ Line 12: / Line 10: @@
 Critics of overpopulation criticize the basic assumptions associated with these estimates. For example, Jade Sasser believes that calculating a maximum of number of humanity which may be allowed to live while only some, mostly privileged European former colonial powers, are mostly responsible for unsustainably using up the Earth, is wrong.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Sasser, Jade|title=On infertile ground : population control and women's rights in the era of climate change|date=13 November 2018|isbn=978-1-4798-7343-2|location=New York|oclc=1029075188}}</ref>
-==Overshoot==
-{{Merge to|Human overpopulation|date=September 2021|section=yes}}{{main|Overshoot (population)#Human overshoot|Overconsumption|Human overpopulation|Malthusian catastrophe}}
-===Predictions of scarcity===
-{{See also|Water scarcity}}
-[[File:Los Angeles Aerial view 2013.jpg|thumb|upright=1.25|[[Greater Los Angeles Area|Greater Los Angeles]] lies on a coastal mediterranean [[savannah]] with a small [[Drainage basin|watershed]] that is able to support at most one million people on [[water scarcity|its own water]]; as of 2015, the area has a population of over 18 million. Researchers predict that similar cases of resource scarcity will grow more common as the world population increases.<ref name=BeddWarn/>]]
-In his 1798 work ''[[An Essay on the Principle of Population]]'', the British scholar [[Thomas Malthus]] incorrectly predicted that continued population growth would exhaust the global food supply by the mid-19th century. Malthus wrote the essay to refute what he considered the unattainable [[utopian]] ideas of [[William Godwin]] and [[Marquis de Condorcet]], as presented in ''[[Political Justice]]'' and ''[[The Future Progress of the Human Mind]]''. In 1968, [[Paul R. Ehrlich]] reprised Malthus' argument in ''[[The Population Bomb]]'', predicting that mass global [[famine]] would occur in the 1970s and 1980s.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/23/paul-ehrlich-global-collapse-warning|title=Paul Ehrlich, a prophet of global population doom who is gloomier than ever|work=The Guardian|date=23 October 2011|access-date=22 July 2013|location=London|first=Juliette|last=Jowit|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131001031731/http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/23/paul-ehrlich-global-collapse-warning|archive-date=1 October 2013|url-status=live}}</ref>
-The predictions of Ehrlich and other [[Neo-malthusianism|neo-Malthusians]] were vigorously challenged by a number of economists, notably [[Julian Lincoln Simon]], and advances in agriculture, collectively known as the [[Green Revolution]], forestalled any potential global famine in the late 20th century. Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the world, grain production increased by over 250%.<ref>{{cite journal |author=Kindall, Henery W |author2=Pimentel, David |name-list-style=amp |title=Constraints on the Expansion of the Global Food Supply |journal=Ambio |volume=23 |issue=3 |date=May 1994 |url=http://dieoff.org/page36.htm |access-date=10 August 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181011060735/http://dieoff.org/page36.htm |archive-date=11 October 2018 |url-status=dead }}</ref> The world population has grown by over four billion since the beginning of the Green Revolution, but food production has so far kept pace with population growth. Most scholars believe that, without the Revolution, there would be greater levels of famine and malnutrition than the UN presently documents.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/6496585.stm|title=The limits of a Green Revolution?|work=BBC News|date=29 March 2007|access-date=18 February 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110728055441/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/6496585.stm|archive-date=28 July 2011|url-status=live}}</ref> However, neo-Malthusians point out that [[fossil fuel]]s provided the energy for the Green Revolution, in the form of natural gas-derived [[fertilizers]], oil-derived [[pesticides]], and [[hydrocarbon]]-fueled [[irrigation]], and that many crops have become so genetically uniform that a crop failure in any one country could potentially have global repercussions.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://ipmworld.umn.edu/chapters/eigenbr.htm|title=Host Plant Resistance and Conservation of Genetic Diversity|work=Radcliffe's IPM World Textbook|publisher=University of Minnesota|date=March 2013|access-date=20 July 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131103171540/http://ipmworld.umn.edu/chapters/eigenbr.htm|archive-date=3 November 2013|url-status=dead}}</ref>
-In May 2008, the price of grain was pushed up severely by the increased cultivation of [[biofuel]]s, the increase of world [[oil prices]] to over $140 per barrel ($880/m<sup>3</sup>),<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0118/p08s01-comv.html |title=The global grain bubble |work=The Christian Science Monitor|date=18 January 2008 |access-date=18 February 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091130063759/http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0118/p08s01-comv.html |archive-date=30 November 2009 |url-status=live }}</ref> global population growth,<ref>{{cite news |author=James Randerson, science correspondent |url=https://www.theguardian.com/science/2008/mar/07/scienceofclimatechange.food |title=Food crisis will take hold before climate change, warns chief scientist |work=The Guardian |date=7 March 2008 |access-date=18 February 2013 |location=London |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130902035723/http://www.theguardian.com/science/2008/mar/07/scienceofclimatechange.food |archive-date=2 September 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref> the effects of [[climate change]],<ref>{{cite news |author=John Vidal, environment editor |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/nov/03/food.climatechange |title=Global food crisis looms as climate change and fuel shortages bite |work=The Guardian |date=3 November 2007 |access-date=18 February 2013 |location=London |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130930145154/http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/nov/03/food.climatechange |archive-date=30 September 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref> the loss of agricultural land to residential and industrial development,<ref>{{cite web |author=Walsoft |url=http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3782.html |title=Experts: Global Food Shortages Could 'Continue for Decades' |publisher=Marketoracle.co.uk |date=22 February 2008 |access-date=18 February 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130221180143/http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3782.html |archive-date=21 February 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.moyak.com/papers/urbanization-agriculture.html |author=Moya K. Mason |title=Has Urbanization Caused a Loss to Agricultural Land? |publisher=Moyak.com |access-date=9 July 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130924182503/http://www.moyak.com/papers/urbanization-agriculture.html |archive-date=24 September 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref> and growing consumer demand in the population centres of China and India.<ref>{{cite news |last=Walt |first=Vivienne |url=http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1717572,00.html |title=The World's Growing Food-Price Crisis |work=Time |date=27 February 2008 |access-date=18 February 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111129211855/http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1717572,00.html |archive-date=29 November 2011 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7284196.stm "The cost of food: Facts and figures"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090120025945/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7284196.stm |date=20 January 2009 }}. BBC. 16 October 2008. Retrieved 18 February 2013.</ref> [[2007–2008 world food price crisis|Food riots]] subsequently occurred in some countries.<ref>{{cite news |author=Julian Borger |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/feb/26/food.unitednations |title=Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits |work=The Guardian |date=26 February 2008 |access-date=18 February 2013 |location=London |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161225150554/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/feb/26/food.unitednations |archive-date=25 December 2016 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news | url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/7361945.stm | work=BBC News | title=Assessing the global food crisis | date=22 April 2008 | access-date=6 April 2010 | first=Emily | last=Buchanan | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090115124933/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/7361945.stm | archive-date=15 January 2009 | url-status=live }}</ref> However, oil prices then fell sharply. Resource demands are expected to ease as population growth declines, but it is unclear whether mass [[food waste|food wastage]] and rising living standards in developing countries will once again create resource shortages.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20968076|title=Half of all food 'wasted' report claims|publisher=BBC|date=10 January 2013|access-date=10 January 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130110051941/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20968076|archive-date=10 January 2013|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://money.cnn.com/2011/03/03/news/economy/food_prices/index.htm|title=Oil shock could push world food prices higher|publisher=CNN Money|date=3 March 2011|access-date=18 February 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130309044738/http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/03/news/economy/food_prices/index.htm|archive-date=9 March 2013|url-status=live}}</ref>
-[[David Pimentel (scientist)|David Pimentel]], professor of ecology and agriculture at [[Cornell University]], estimates that the sustainable agricultural carrying capacity for the United States is about 200 million people; its population as of 2015 is over 300 million.<ref>{{cite book|author=P. Crabbè|date=2000|publisher=North Atlantic Treaty Organization Scientific Affairs Division/Springer|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=denet95NNzkC&pg=PA411 |title=Implementing ecological integrity: restoring regional and global environmental and human health|page=411|isbn=978-0-7923-6351-4}}</ref> In 2009, the UK government's chief scientific advisor, Professor [[John Beddington]], warned that growing populations, falling energy reserves and food shortages would create a "perfect storm" of shortages of food, water, and energy by 2030.<ref name=BeddWarn>{{cite web|url=https://www.theguardian.com/science/2009/mar/18/perfect-storm-john-beddington-energy-food-climate|title=World faces 'perfect storm' of problems by 2030, chief scientist to warn|work=The Guardian|date=18 March 2009|access-date=18 February 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161114162004/https://www.theguardian.com/science/2009/mar/18/perfect-storm-john-beddington-energy-food-climate|archive-date=14 November 2016|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7951838.stm|title=Global crisis 'to strike by 2030|work=BBC News|date=19 March 2009|access-date=18 February 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161115024509/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7951838.stm|archive-date=15 November 2016|url-status=live}}</ref> According to a 2009 report by the United Nations [[Food and Agriculture Organization]] (FAO), the world will have to produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed a projected extra 2.3 billion people.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017966.shtml|title=Global food production will have to increase 70% for additional 2.3 billion people by 2050|publisher=Finfacts.com|date=24 September 2009|access-date=18 February 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160310205117/http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017966.shtml|archive-date=10 March 2016|url-status=live}}</ref>
-The observed figures for 2007 showed an actual increase in absolute numbers of undernourished people in the world, with 923 million undernourished in 2007, versus 832 million in 1995.<ref>{{cite web|publisher=UN [[Food and Agriculture Organization]] – Economic and Social Development Department|url=http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0291e/i0291e00.htm|title=The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2008: High food prices and food security – threats and opportunities|date=2008|page=2|access-date=8 December 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180613234142/http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0291e/i0291e00.htm|archive-date=13 June 2018|url-status=live}}</ref> The 2009 FAO estimates showed an even more dramatic increase, to 1.02 billion.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/20568/icode/|title=One sixth of humanity undernourished – more than ever before|publisher=Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations|date=2009|access-date=8 December 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121117211313/http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/20568/icode/|archive-date=17 November 2012|url-status=live}}</ref>
-===Human impact on the environment===
-[[File:Manantenina bushfire.jpg|thumb|Illegal [[slash-and-burn]] agriculture in [[Madagascar]], 2010]]
-A number of scientists have argued that the looming [[human impact on the environment]] and accompanying increase in [[resource consumption]] threatens the world's [[ecosystem]] and the survival of human civilization.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.footprintnetwork.org/gfn_sub.php?content=overshoot | title=Ecological Debt Day | access-date=18 February 2013 | url-status=dead | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081217234021/http://www.footprintnetwork.org/gfn_sub.php?content=overshoot | archive-date=17 December 2008 | df=mdy-all }}
-</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.nature.com/news/specials/planetaryboundaries/index.html#feature | title=Planetary Boundaries: Specials | work=Nature | date=23 September 2009 | access-date=18 February 2013 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130212015050/http://www.nature.com/news/specials/planetaryboundaries/index.html#feature | archive-date=12 February 2013 | url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bologna|first1=M. |last2=Aquino|first2=G. |date=2020 |title=Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis |url= |journal=[[Scientific Reports]] |volume= 10|issue=7631 |pages= |doi=10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6|pmc=7203172}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bradshaw |first1=Corey J. A. |last2=Ehrlich |first2=Paul R. |last3=Beattie |first3=Andrew |last4=Ceballos |first4=Gerardo |last5=Crist |first5=Eileen |last6=Diamond |first6=Joan |last7=Dirzo |first7=Rodolfo |last8=Ehrlich |first8=Anne H. |last9=Harte |first9=John |last10=Harte |first10=Mary Ellen |last11=Pyke |first11=Graham |last12=Raven |first12=Peter H. |last13=Ripple |first13=William J. |last14=Saltré |first14=Frédérik |last15=Turnbull |first15=Christine |last16=Wackernagel |first16=Mathis |last17=Blumstein |first17=Daniel T. |date=2021 |title=Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future |journal=Frontiers in Conservation Science |volume=1 |issue= |pages= |doi=10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419 |doi-access=free }}</ref> The [[InterAcademy Panel]] [[IAP statement on population growth|Statement on Population Growth]], which was ratified by 58 member [[national academy|national academies]] in 1994, states that "unprecedented" population growth aggravates many environmental problems, including rising levels of [[atmospheric carbon dioxide]], [[global warming]], and pollution.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.interacademies.net/?id=3547 |title=IAP (login required) |publisher=InterAcademies.net |access-date=18 February 2013 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100210203604/http://www.interacademies.net/?id=3547 |archive-date=10 February 2010 }}</ref> Indeed, some analysts claim that overpopulation's most serious impact is its effect on the environment.<ref name=TIMEenvir>{{cite news|url=http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2097720_2097782_2097814,00.html|title=Overpopulation's Real Victim Will Be the Environment|work=TIME|date=26 October 2011|access-date=18 February 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130218180534/http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2097720_2097782_2097814,00.html|archive-date=18 February 2013|url-status=dead}}</ref>
-Scientists contend that human overpopulation, continued human population growth and [[overconsumption]], particularly by the wealthy, are the primary drivers of [[Holocene extinction|mass species extinction]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Pimm |first1=S.L. |last2=Jenkins |first2=C.N. |last3=Abell |first3=R. |last4=Brooks |first4=T.M. |last5=Gittleman |first5=J.L. |last6=Joppa |first6=L.N. |last7=Raven |first7=P. H. |last8=Roberts |first8=C. M. |last9=Sexton |first9=J. O. |date=30 May 2014 |title=The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection |url=http://static.squarespace.com/static/51b078a6e4b0e8d244dd9620/t/538797c3e4b07a163543ea0f/1401395139381/Pimm+et+al.+2014.pdf |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |volume=344 |issue=6187 |page=1246752 |doi=10.1126/science.1246752 |access-date=15 December 2016 |quote=The overarching driver of species extinction is human population growth and increasing per capita consumption. |pmid=24876501 |s2cid=206552746 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190831091017/http://static.squarespace.com/static/51b078a6e4b0e8d244dd9620/t/538797c3e4b07a163543ea0f/1401395139381/Pimm+et+al.+2014.pdf |archive-date=31 August 2019 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Ceballos | first1 = Gerardo| last2 = Ehrlich| first2 = Paul R.| last3 = Barnosky| first3= Anthony D. | author-link3=Anthony David Barnosky|last4 = García | first4 = Andrés| last5 = Pringle | first5 = Robert M.| last6 = Palmer| first6 =Todd M. | year = 2015 | title = Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction | journal = [[Science Advances]] | volume = 1 | issue = 5 | page = e1400253 | doi = 10.1126/sciadv.1400253 | pmid= 26601195| pmc=4640606| bibcode = 2015SciA....1E0253C}}</ref><ref name="extinctioncrisis">{{cite news|url=http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/12/world/sutter-vanishing-help/|title=How to stop the sixth mass extinction|first=John D.|last=Sutter|date=12 December 2016|work=CNN|access-date=19 December 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170112083004/http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/12/world/sutter-vanishing-help/|archive-date=12 January 2017|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal| last1=Ceballos|first1=Gerardo|last2=Ehrlich|first2=Paul R |last3=Dirzo|first3=Rodolfo|date=23 May 2017|title=Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines|journal=[[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America|PNAS]]|doi=10.1073/pnas.1704949114|quote=Much less frequently mentioned are, however, the ultimate drivers of those immediate causes of biotic destruction, namely, human overpopulation and continued population growth, and overconsumption, especially by the rich. These drivers, all of which trace to the fiction that perpetual growth can occur on a finite planet, are themselves increasing rapidly.|pmid=28696295|pmc=5544311|volume=114|issue=30|pages=E6089–E6096}}</ref> By 2050 population growth, along with profligate consumption, could result in oceans containing more [[Plastic pollution|plastic]] than fish by weight.<ref name="extinctioncrisis"/> In November 2017, the [[World Scientists' Warning to Humanity|World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice]], signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries, asserted that rapid human population growth is the "primary driver behind many ecological and even societal threats."<ref>{{cite journal|vauthors=Ripple WJ, Wolf C, Newsome TM, Galetti M, Alamgir M, Crist E, Mahmoud MI, Laurance WF|title=World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice|journal=[[BioScience]]|date=13 November 2017|volume=67|issue=12|pages=1026–1028|doi=10.1093/biosci/bix125|doi-access=free}}</ref> African [[wildlife]] populations are declining significantly as growing human populations encroach on protected ecosystems, such as the [[Serengeti]].<ref>{{cite news|last=Cockburn|first=Harry|date=29 March 2019|title=Population explosion fuelling rapid reduction of wildlife on African savannah, study shows|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/wildlife-africa-savanah-serengeti-masai-mara-population-a8843936.html|work=[[The Independent]]|access-date=1 April 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190522121506/https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/wildlife-africa-savanah-serengeti-masai-mara-population-a8843936.html|archive-date=22 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> The ''[[Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services]]'', released by [[IPBES]] in 2019, states that human population growth is a factor in [[biodiversity loss]].<ref>{{cite news|last=Watts|first=Jonathan|date=6 May 2019|title=Human society under urgent threat from loss of Earth's natural life|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/06/human-society-under-urgent-threat-loss-earth-natural-life-un-report|work=[[The Guardian]]|access-date=23 June 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190518041123/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/06/human-society-under-urgent-threat-loss-earth-natural-life-un-report|archive-date=18 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="StokstadAAAS">{{Cite web|url=https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/landmark-analysis-documents-alarming-global-decline-nature|title=Landmark analysis documents the alarming global decline of nature|last=Stokstad|first=Erik|date=5 May 2019|website=[[Science (journal)|Science]]|publisher=[[American Association for the Advancement of Science|AAAS]]|language=en|access-date=19 July 2020|quote="Driving these threats are the growing human population, which has doubled since 1970 to 7.6 billion, and consumption. (Per capita of use of materials is up 15% over the past 5 decades.)"}}</ref> According to a 2020 [[World Wildlife Fund]] ''[[Living Planet Report]]'' and its [[Living Planet Index]], global wildlife populations have plummeted by 68% since 1970 as a result of overconsumption, [[population growth]] and [[intensive farming]], which experts assert is further evidence that humans have unleashed a sixth mass extinction event on earth.<ref>{{cite news |last= Greenfield |first=Patrick |date=9 September 2020 |title=Humans exploiting and destroying nature on unprecedented scale – report |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/10/humans-exploiting-and-destroying-nature-on-unprecedented-scale-report-aoe |work=[[The Guardian]] |access-date=10 September 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Lewis |first=Sophie |date=9 September 2020 |title=Animal populations worldwide have declined by almost 70% in just 50 years, new report says |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biodiversity-endangered-species-animal-population-decline-world-wildlife-fund-report-2020-09-09/ |work=[[CBS News]] |access-date=10 September 2020|quote="The report blames humans alone for the "dire" state of the planet. It points to the exponential growth of human consumption, population, global trade and urbanization over the last 50 years as key reasons for the unprecedented decline of Earth's resources – which it says the planet is incapable of replenishing."}}</ref>
-According to influential biologist [[E. O. Wilson]], who asserts that human population growth and the forces it multiplies, including [[habitat destruction]], [[pollution]] and [[overharvesting]], are destructive to the planet's biodiversity:
-<blockquote>The pattern of human population growth in the 20th century was more bacterial than primate. When ''Homo sapiens'' passed the six billion mark, we had already exceeded  perhaps as much as 100 times the [[Biomass (ecology)|biomass]] of any large animal species that had ever existed on the land. We and the rest of life cannot afford another 100 years like that.<ref>{{cite book |editor1-last=Crist |editor1-first=Eileen |editor2-last=Cafaro |editor2-first=Philip |date=2012 |title=Life on the Brink: Environmentalists Confront Overpopulation |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=heOrAAAAQBAJ&pg=PA83 |location= |publisher=[[University of Georgia Press]] |page=83 |isbn=978-0820343853}}</ref></blockquote>
-[[File:Wynes_Nicholas_CO2_emissions_savings.svg|200px|thumb|Having one less child, on average, saves 58.6 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year.]]
-A July 2017 study published in ''[[Environmental Research Letters]]'' argued that the most significant way individuals could mitigate their own [[carbon footprint]] is to have fewer children, followed by living without a vehicle, foregoing air travel, and adopting a [[plant-based diet]].<ref>{{cite news|last=Perkins|first=Sid|date=11 July 2017|title=The best way to reduce your carbon footprint is one the government isn't telling you about|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/best-way-reduce-your-carbon-footprint-one-government-isn-t-telling-you-about|work=[[Science (journal)|Science]]|access-date=9 December 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171201030527/http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/best-way-reduce-your-carbon-footprint-one-government-isn-t-telling-you-about|archive-date=1 December 2017|url-status=live}}</ref> According to said study, having one less child would save 24 times more [[Carbon dioxide equivalent|{{CO2}}e]] than living car free.
-===Human population planning===
-[[File:One child policy.jpg|thumb|A government sign in China: "For a prosperous, powerful nation and a happy family, please practice family planning."]]
-[[Human population planning]] is the practice of intervening to alter the rate of population growth. Historically, human population control has been implemented by limiting a region's [[birth rate]], by voluntary contraception or by government mandate. It has been undertaken as a response to factors including high or increasing levels of poverty, [[carrying capacity|environmental concerns]], and [[religion|religious reasons]]. The use of [[abortion]] in some population control strategies has caused controversy,<ref>Some population control programs, such as China's [[one-child policy]], entail the use of forced late-term abortions, sparking domestic anger and international condemnation: {{cite web|url=http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jun/15/world/la-fg-china-abortions-20120616|title=China one-child policy leads to forced abortions, mothers' deaths|work=[[Los Angeles Times]]|date=15 June 2012|access-date=29 August 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120829091252/http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jun/15/world/la-fg-china-abortions-20120616|archive-date=29 August 2012|url-status=live}}</ref> with religious organizations such as the [[Roman Catholic Church]] explicitly opposing any intervention in the human reproductive process.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.vatican.va/holy_father/benedict_xvi/messages/peace/documents/hf_ben-xvi_mes_20081208_xlii-world-day-peace_en.html|title=Fighting poverty to build peace|publisher=[[Holy See|Vatican]]|date=1 January 2009|access-date=24 October 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111011230252/http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/benedict_xvi/messages/peace/documents/hf_ben-xvi_mes_20081208_xlii-world-day-peace_en.html|archive-date=11 October 2011|url-status=live}}</ref>
-The [[University of Nebraska]] publication ''[[Green Illusions]]'' argues that population control to alleviate environmental pressures need not be coercive. It states that "Women who are educated, economically engaged, and in control of their own bodies can enjoy the freedom of bearing children at their own pace, which happens to be a rate that is appropriate for the aggregate ecological endowment of our planet."<ref>{{cite book|last=Zehner|first=Ozzie|author-link=Ozzie Zehner|title=Green lllusions|date=2012|publisher=University of Nebraska|location=Lincoln and London|page=188|url=http://greenillusions.org|access-date=10 April 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191129202344/http://www.greenillusions.org/|archive-date=29 November 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> The book ''[[Fatal Misconception]]'' by Matthew Connelly similarly points to the importance of supporting the rights of women in bringing population levels down over time.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=CwImmRvyyiEC|title=Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population|author=Connelly, Matthew|date=2008|isbn=978-0674029835}}</ref> [[Paul R. Ehrlich|Paul Ehrlich]] also advocates making "modern contraception and back-up abortion available to all and give women full equal rights, pay and opportunities with men," noting that it could possibly "lead to a low enough total fertility rate that the needed shrinkage of population would follow. [But] it will take a very long time to humanely reduce total population to a size that is sustainable." Ehrlich places the optimum global population size at 1.5 to 2 billion people.<ref>{{Cite news |last= Carrington|first=Damian|date=22 March 2018 |title=Paul Ehrlich: 'Collapse of civilisation is a near certainty within decades'|url=https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/22/collapse-civilisation-near-certain-decades-population-bomb-paul-ehrlich|work=[[The Guardian]] |access-date=23 August 2020}}</ref>
-Other academicians and public figures have pointed to the role of agriculture and [[agricultural productivity]] of increasing human [[carrying capacity]], which results in [[population overshoot]], as with any other species when their food supply experiences an increase, which in turn results in resource depletion and mass poverty and starvation in the case of humans.<ref>Cite Warren, Stephen G. "Did agriculture cause the population explosion?." Nature 397.6715 (1999): 101.</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.populationmedia.org/2014/02/11/morgan-freeman-speaks-out-on-population/|title=Morgan Freeman on the 'Tyranny of Agriculture' and the Doomed Human Race|date=19 February 2014|publisher=ecorazzi}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Armelagos|first1=George J.|last2=Goodman|first2=Alan H.|last3=Jacobs|first3=Kenneth H.|date=1 September 1991|title=The origins of agriculture: Population growth during a period of declining health|journal=Population and Environment|volume=13|issue=1|pages=9–22|doi=10.1007/BF01256568|s2cid=153470610|issn=1573-7810}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ck12.org/earth-science/Agriculture-and-Human-Population-Growth/|title=Agriculture and Human Population Growth|publisher=CK-12}}</ref>
 ==Carrying capacity==

v t e Population
Major topics	Demographics of the world Demographic transition Estimates of historical world population Population growth Population momentum Projections of population growth World population
Population biology	Population decline Population density Physiological density Population dynamics Population model Population pyramid
Population ecology	Biocapacity Carrying capacity Earth's energy budget I = P × A × T Kaya identity Malthusian growth model Overshoot (population) World3 model
Society and population	Eugenics Dysgenics Human overpopulation Malthusian catastrophe Human population planning Compulsory sterilization Family planning One-child policy Two-child policy Overconsumption Political demography Population ethics Antinatalism Mere addition paradox Natalism Non-identity problem Reproductive rights Sustainable population Zero population growth
Publications	Population and Environment Population and Development Review
Lists	Population and housing censuses by country Largest cities World population milestones 6 billion 7 8 Population concern organizations
Events and organizations	7 Billion Actions Church of Euthanasia International Conference on Population and Development Population Action International Population Connection Population Matters United Nations Population Fund United Nations world population conferences Voluntary Human Extinction Movement World Population Conference World Population Day World Population Foundation
Related topics	Bennett's law Green Revolution Human impact on the environment Migration The Population Bomb Sustainability The Ultimate Resource White demographic decline
Commons Category