2010 United States Senate election in Connecticut: Difference between revisions
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Elections in Connecticut |
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The 2010 Connecticut United States Senate election is a midterm election that will be held on November 2, 2010 to decide a Senator from the State of Connecticut to join the 112th United States Congress. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd suffered from dropping approval ratings in the past few years due to major controversies, leading him to announce in January 2010 that he would not seek re-election.[1] As Dodd was a Democrat, Richard Blumenthal, incumbent State Attorney General, announced on the same day that he would run for Dodd’s seat.[2]. The Connecticut Democratic Party formally nominated Blumenthal on May 21. He will face businesswoman Linda McMahon in the general election.
Dodd's controversies
Chris Dodd's power and popularity may have deteriorated for three reasons since his last re-election.
Firstly, his poor performance in his bid for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination appears to have soured local voters.[3] That poll, showing Dodd's job approval at 51% was taken before the scandals.
Secondly, he received mortgage loans as part of the "Friends of Angelo" program run by subprime mortgage lender Countrywide Financial. The Hartford Courant has reported Dodd has taken a "major credibility hit" from this scandal. A later poll in September 2008 showed Dodd's job approval declining to 43%, with 46% terming his job performance as "fair" or "poor".[4]
Thirdly, on March 18, after having denied the allegation earlier in the week to CNN reporter Dana Bash, Dodd acknowledged that he was responsible for adding the provision in the economic stimulus package that allowed firms receiving bailout funds to distribute employee bonuses. Dodd admitted to the deception only after an unnamed source within the Treasury Department provided insider information to the network. [5] Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner admitted that he pushed Dodd into watering down the executive bonus limits in the stimulus bill.[6]
In December 2008, it was reported that Dodd had a little less than $670,000 banked for a re-election campaign, far less than other senators anticipated to seek re-election.[7] In February 2009, a poll indicated that Dodd's favorability ratings were slipping, and many Connecticut voters were not satisfied with Dodd's explanations regarding the mortgage.[8]
On March 17, 2009, the NRSC released a web ad attacking Dodd for his Irish cottage, his mortgage, and his relocation to Iowa in 2007.[9]
Dodd's decline of popularity
Election troubles
First elected in 1980, Christopher Dodd, the longest-serving U.S. Senator in Connecticut history, announced in a letter to the Federal Election Commission on January 17, 2007 that he was no longer a candidate for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2010. However, this may just have been a technicality in order to transfer funds to his presidential campaign as the declaration could be reversed at any time. A Dodd spokesman said, "It's a legality that isn't an indication of future plans."[10] According to Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele, Republican Governor Jodi Rell was likely running for re-election in 2010, so it was unlikely that either would run for the Senate.[11]
On March 2, 2009, noted pundit Michael Barone suggested Dodd was "ripe for the picking" in the 2010 election due to the fallout from his various controversies.[12] Nate Silver of the prominent website FiveThirtyEight.com suggested that if necessary, another Connecticut Democrat should primary Dodd. Silver rated Dodd as the single most vulnerable incumbent senator up for re-election in 2010. [13] On December 10, 2009 the Cook Political Report listed this race as "Lean Republican."
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Susan Bysiewicz was quoted suggesting Dodd's yet unannounced re-election bid could be a drag on the candidacies of other Connecticut Democrats in 2010. [14]
Many political leaders speculated Dodd could be persuaded to retire so as to preserve his "senior statesman" legacy.[15] Fellow Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman had indicated that he would have supported Dodd's reelection, despite past disagreements, including Dodd's 2006 endorsement of Ned Lamont[16] and Lieberman's support of John McCain's 2008 Presidential Campaign.
In fundraising reports issued for the first quarter of 2009, Dodd reported having raised over $1 million, but reported only five contributions from Connecticut residents.[17]
Poll numbers
A March 2009 Quinnipiac University poll confirmed Dodd's vulnerability; he failed to attain a 50% level of support against three lesser known possible Republican opponents.[18] On April 2, 2009 Quinnipiac released a poll indicating Dodd in serious danger of losing re-election, despite the fact that Connecticut is a heavily blue state that President Obama won in 2008 with over 60% of the vote.
Democratic nomination
Candidates
Announced
-
Richard Blumenthal, state Attorney General
-
Warren Mosler, Economist
Potential
Declined
- Ned Lamont, former Greenwich Selectman and 2006 Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, decided to run for Governor instead [20]
- Christopher Dodd, Incumbent U.S. Senator, dropped out and decided to retire[21]
- Chris Murphy, U.S. Congressman, said he may be interested "down the road," implying a possible run in 2012[22]
- Edward M. Kennedy, Jr., founded the investment company the Marwood Group and son of the late Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy.
Campaign
Merrick Alpert announced his candidacy to challenge current Senator Chris Dodd in May of 2009[23]. Facing grave prospects at re-election, Dodd announced his retirement from the Senate on January 6, 2010.[24] Richard Blumenthal, the Attorney General and former State Senator announced he would be running.
Debates
Merrick Alpert and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal squared-off in a debate highlighting important issues. On healthcare, Alpert revealed that he supports a single-payer system. Blumenthal explained that pool-purchasing powers should be explored. Alpert presented information as to how insurance rates have skyrocketed in Connecticut since the Attorney General took office. On the topic of war, Blumenthal pledged his support of President Obama's current plan. Alpert expressed that, being a former peacekeeper in Bosnia, he understands what policies work and which ones do not. The current one does not. Alpert set out a plan for the withdrawal of troops from the current war in Afghanistan. On a question concerning relations with Cuba, Blumenthal explained that it would take time, and that he would put together a panel of Cuban-American people to decide the best course of action. Alpert explained that he would vote on the issue that night. [25]
Polling
Poll source | Dates administered | Richard Blumenthal | Merrick Alpert | Lee Whitnum | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac | March 9-15, 2010 | 81% | 6% | –– | 13% |
Quinnipiac | January 8-12, 2010 | 84% | 4% | –– | 12% |
Republican nomination
Candidates
Announced
Potential
- Jack Orchulli, Darien businessman and 2004 senate nominee [29]
Declined
- Sam Caligiuri, Connecticut State Senator; originally ran for the U.S. Senate,[30] but later dropped out to run for U.S. House of Representatives[31]
- Thomas C. Foley, former United States Ambassador to Ireland; dropped bid on December 3, 2009 to run for Governor[32]
- Larry Kudlow,[33][34] financial journalist
- Chris Shays,[35] former Congressman
- Rob Simmons, former Congressman; dropped bid on May 25, 2010, but will stay on the Republican primary ballot[36]
Campaign
On February 27, 2009, Commentary magazine reported that various Washington, D.C. Republicans were seeking to get Larry Kudlow, a popular TV talk show host and columnist, to enter the race against Dodd.[37]
After the Quinnipac poll that showed him barely edging Dodd in a potential matchup, Simmons decided to officially enter the race.[38] Upon his announcement, the DSCC attacked Simmons for his past support of George W. Bush and ties to Jack Abramoff and Tom DeLay.[39] A leading state political blogger, who had endorsed Simmons' opponent in 2006, questioned whether these issues were relevant to the 2010 race. [40]
State Senator Caligiuri originally planned to run the U.S. Senate, but after doing poorly in both primary and general election polling he decided to drop out and instead run the U.S. House of Representatives in the 5th District. Tom Foley has also left the race to instead run for Governor of Connecticut, as incumbent Governor M. Jodi Rell is not seeking re-election.
The Republican Liberty Caucus, the primary organization representing the libertarian wing of the GOP, endorsed Schiff in November 2009.[41]
Polling
Poll source | Dates administered | Rob Simmons | Linda McMahon | Peter Schiff |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac | March 9-15, 2010 | 34% | 44% | 9% |
Quinnipiac | January 8-12, 2010 | 37% | 27% | 4% |
Moore Information | December 15-16, 2009 | 35% | 37% | 4% |
Quinnipiac | November 3-8, 2009 | 28% | 17% | 5% |
Quinnipiac | September 10-14, 2009 | 43% | -- | 2% |
Research 2000 | September 8-10, 2009 | 38% | -- | 1% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Linda McMahon * | 737 | 51.76 | |
Republican | Rob Simmons * | 632 | 44.62 | |
Republican | Peter Schiff | 44 | 3.11 | |
Republican | Vincent Forras | 7 | 0.49 | |
Republican | Ethan Book | 0 | 0.00 | |
Total votes | 1,414 | 100.00 |
* Denotes candidate met the minimum threshold of 15 percent to appear on the primary ballot
Other candidates
Announced
-
Dr. John Mertens, Professor of Engineering, independent political activist[43]
Dr. John Mertens, Professor of Engineering at Trinity College in Hartford, CT, is on the ballot in November as the nominee of the Connecticut for Lieberman Party. He is also seeking the nominations of the Independent Party, Green Party, and Libertarian Party.
Potential
-
Ralph Nader, political activist and consumer advocate[44]
General election
Predictions
CQ Politics has rated this election as "likely Democratic."[45] The Cook Political Report changed this race to "toss up" on May 18, 2010 following Blumenthal's misstatements about his military service.[46][47]
Polling
With Blumenthal (D)
Poll source | Dates administered | Richard Blumenthal (D) | Rob Simmons (R) |
---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports | May 18, 2010 | 50% | 39% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 4, 2010 | 55% | 32% |
Rasmussen Reports | April 7, 2010 | 52% | 38% |
Quinnipiac | March 9-15, 2010 | 62% | 26% |
Rassmussen Reports | March 2, 2010 | 58% | 32% |
Rassmussen Reports | February 1, 2010 | 54% | 35% |
YouGovPolimetrix | January 6-11, 2010 | 47% | 34% |
Daily Kos/Research 2000 | January 11-13, 2010 | 54% | 35% |
Quinnipiac | January 8-12, 2010 | 62% | 27% |
Rasmussen Reports | January 6, 2010 | 56% | 33% |
Public Policy Polling | January 4–5, 2010 | 59% | 28% |
Poll source | Dates administered | Richard Blumenthal (D) | Linda McMahon (R) |
---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac | May 24-25, 2010 | 56% | 31% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 18, 2010 | 48% | 45% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 4, 2010 | 52% | 39% |
Rasmussen Reports | April 7, 2010 | 55% | 35% |
Quinnipiac | March 9-15, 2010 | 61% | 28% |
Rassmussen Reports | March 2, 2010 | 60% | 31% |
Rasmussen Reports | February 1, 2010 | 56% | 36% |
YouGovPolimetrix | January 6-11, 2010 | 47% | 35% |
Daily Kos/Research 2000 | January 11-13, 2010 | 56% | 34% |
Quinnipiac | January 8-12, 2010 | 64% | 23% |
Rasmussen Reports | January 6, 2010 | 58% | 34% |
Public Policy Polling | January 4–5, 2010 | 60% | 28% |
Poll source | Dates administered | Richard Blumenthal (D) | Peter Schiff (R) |
---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports | May 18, 2010 | 53% | 37% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 4, 2010 | 54% | 29% |
Rasmussen Reports | April 7, 2010 | 58% | 32% |
Quinnipiac | March 9-15, 2010 | 64% | 21% |
Rassmussen Reports | March 2, 2010 | 57% | 27% |
Daliy Kos/Research 2000 | January 11-13, 2010 | 56% | 33% |
Quinnipiac | January 8-12, 2010 | 66% | 19% |
Rasmussen Reports | January 6, 2010 | 60% | 24% |
Public Policy Polling | January 4–5, 2010 | 63% | 23% |
With Dodd (D)
Poll source | Dates administered | Christopher Dodd (D) | Rob Simmons (R) |
---|---|---|---|
GQR | December 15, 2009 | 46% | 51% |
Rasmussen Reports | December 7, 2009 | 35% | 48% |
Quinnipiac | November 3-8, 2009 | 38% | 49% |
Quinnipiac | September 10-14, 2009 | 39% | 44% |
Research 2000 | September 8-10, 2009 | 42% | 46% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 10, 2009 | 39% | 49% |
Quinnipiac | July 16-20, 2009 | 39% | 48% |
Wilson Research Strategies | June 24–25, 2009 | 38% | 47% |
Quinnipiac | May 20–25, 2009 | 39% | 45% |
Quinnipiac | March 26–31, 2009 | 34% | 50% |
Research 2000 | March 23–25, 2009 | 45% | 40% |
Quinnipiac | March 3–8, 2009 | 42% | 43% |
Poll source | Dates administered | Christopher Dodd (D) | Linda McMahon (R) |
---|---|---|---|
GQR | December 15, 2009 | 46% | 46% |
Rasmussen Reports | December 7, 2009 | 38% | 44% |
Quinnipiac | November 3-8, 2009 | 41% | 43% |
Poll source | Dates administered | Christopher Dodd (D) | Peter Schiff (R) |
---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports | December 7, 2009 | 39% | 40% |
Quinnipiac | November 3-8, 2009 | 42% | 41% |
Quinnipiac | September 10-14, 2009 | 42% | 36% |
Research 2000 | September 8-10, 2009 | 47% | 35% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 10, 2009 | 42% | 40% |
Quinnipiac | July 16-20, 2009 | 43% | 38% |
Wilson Research Strategies | June 24-25, 2009 | 42% | 38% |
Fundraising
Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
---|---|---|---|---|
Linda McMahon (R) | $14,575,232 | $10,273,030 | $4,302,202 | $14,000,000 |
Rob Simmons (R) | $2,898,392 | $1,482,009 | $1,416,432 | $99,551 |
Peter Schiff (R) | $2,549,229 | $1,320,518 | $1,228,710 | $550,000 |
Richard Blumenthal (D) | $1,880,040 | $278,227 | $1,601,813 | $0 |
Merrick Alpert (D) | $226,560 | $218,492 | $-2,487 | $136,000 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[48] |
References
- ^ http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_DODD_RETIREMENT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
- ^ http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-richard-blumenthal-chris-dodd-0106,0,2997693.story
- ^ http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1163
- ^ http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-ctpoll0926.artsep26,0,4404922.story
- ^ "BREAKING: I was responsible for bonus loophole, says Dodd". CNN.com. CNN. March 18, 2009.
- ^ "Geithner: Treasury pushed for bonus loophole". CNN.com. CNN. March 19, 2009.
- ^ http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecgifpdf2/?_28196+29020071245.pdf
- ^ "Connecticut's Rell Is Queen Of The Hill At Midterm, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dodd Has Worst Approval Ever". Quinnipiac University Poll (Press release). February 10, 2009.
- ^ [1]
- ^ "Dodd: About His "Retirement" Announcement". The Hotline. National Journal. 2007-02-20. Retrieved 2007-03-07.
- ^ "Rell likely to seek re-election, lieutenant governor says". Journal Inquirer. 2008-04-12. Retrieved 2008-04-27.
- ^ Michael Barone (March 2, 2009). "Chris Dodd is Ripe for the Picking". U.S. News and World Report.
- ^ [2]
- ^ Zeke Miller (March 6, 2009). "Dodd yet to declare bid". Yale Daily News.
- ^ Dean Pagani (January 19, 2009). "The New Guard". HartfordBusiness.com. Hartford Business Journal.
- ^ J. Taylor Rushing (March 11, 2009). "Frenemies Dodd and Lieberman make nice". The Hill.com. The Hill.
- ^ http://www.connpost.com/ci_12158273
- ^ "Connecticut's Dodd Tied With Simmons, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Loosen Pot Laws And Sell Liquor On Sunday". Quinnipiac University Poll (Press release). March 10, 2009.
- ^ http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/04/03/sen-dodd-may-get-primary-challenge/
- ^ http://newbritainherald.com/articles/2009/02/19/news/doc499ccdb19a67a140246762.txt
- ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31189.html
- ^ http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/74729-rep-chris-murphy-vs-lieberman
- ^ http://www.merrickforachange.com/node/18
- ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31189.html
- ^ http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/ctnj.php/archives/entry/alpert_goes_on_offensive_makes_most_of_first_debate/#cmt
- ^ http://www.linda2010.com/
- ^ Altimari, Daniela (September 17, 2009) "Peter Schiff Launches Senate Run", Hartford Courant. Retrieved on 2009-09-17.
- ^ http://www.fairfieldcitizenonline.com/default/article/Ethan-Book-announces-bid-for-U-S-Senate-381945.php
- ^ http://ctlocalpolitics.net/2009/04/04/and-then-there-were-four/
- ^ http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/election_2010/simmons_on_dodd_and_dodd_on_do.php
- ^ http://www.wggb.com/Global/story.asp?S=11566450
- ^ http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/12/foley-to-run-for-connecticut-g.html
- ^ Carter, Bill (March 24, 2009). "Kudlow of CNBC Rules Out Senate Race". New York Times.
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(help) - ^ Kudlow Not Running for U.S. Senate on YouTube
- ^ http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2009/02/06/shays-not-running-for-senate/
- ^ http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Simmons-ends-campaign-but-stays-on-ballot-499060.php
- ^ http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/rubin/56681
- ^ http://www.courant.com/news/local/statewire/hc-ap-ct-simmons-doddmar15,0,3135783.story
- ^ Eric Kleefeld (March 16, 2009). "DSCC Launches Anti-Bush Strategy To Attack Simmons". TPM Election Central. Talking Points Memo.
- ^ [3]
- ^ Republican Liberty Caucus. Republican Liberty Caucus Endorses Rand Paul, Peter Schiff... 2009-11-10
- ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37633.html
- ^ http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2010/01/us-senate-candidate-john-mertens-gains-ballot-line-in-ct/
- ^ "Nader Calls Decision To Run For Senate ‘Premature’", CT News Junkie. November, 27 2009
- ^ CQ Politics - Connecticut Senate Race Updated March 24, 2010
- ^ [4]
- ^ http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/3343
- ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Connecticut". fec.gov. Retrieved May 1, 2010.
External links
- Connecticut Secretary of State - Elections and Voting
- Connecticut U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
- 2010 Connecticut Senate Election graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Connecticut Senate from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Connecticut Senate Race from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Connecticut Senate Race from CQ Politics
- Official campaign websites