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McMahon and Blumenthal are going uncontested in primaries and therefore are the nominees
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| next_year = 2012
| next_year = 2012
| election_date = November 2, 2010
| election_date = November 2, 2010
| image1 = [[File:Richard Blumenthal at West Hartford library opening.jpg|125px]]
| image1 = <!--Convention endorsement does not stop a primary challenge, unless all candidates indicate they withdraw from the race-->
| nominee1 = TBD
| nominee1 = TBD
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
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| image2 = [[File:Linda McMahon Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic.jpg|125px]]
| image2 = <!--Convention endorsement does not stop a primary challenge, unless all candidates indicate they withdraw from the race-->
| nominee2 = TBD
| nominee2 = [[Linda McMahon]]
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| popular_vote2 =
| popular_vote2 =

Revision as of 01:06, 28 May 2010

United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2010
← 2006 November 2, 2010 2012 →
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent Senator

Chris Dodd
Democratic



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The 2010 Connecticut United States Senate election is a midterm election that will be held on November 2, 2010 to decide a Senator from the State of Connecticut to join the 112th United States Congress. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd suffered from dropping approval ratings in the past few years due to major controversies, leading him to announce in January 2010 that he would not seek re-election.[1] As Dodd was a Democrat, Richard Blumenthal, incumbent State Attorney General, announced on the same day that he would run for Dodd’s seat.[2]. The Connecticut Democratic Party formally nominated Blumenthal on May 21. He will face businesswoman Linda McMahon in the general election.

Dodd's controversies

Chris Dodd's power and popularity may have deteriorated for three reasons since his last re-election.

Firstly, his poor performance in his bid for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination appears to have soured local voters.[3] That poll, showing Dodd's job approval at 51% was taken before the scandals.

Secondly, he received mortgage loans as part of the "Friends of Angelo" program run by subprime mortgage lender Countrywide Financial. The Hartford Courant has reported Dodd has taken a "major credibility hit" from this scandal. A later poll in September 2008 showed Dodd's job approval declining to 43%, with 46% terming his job performance as "fair" or "poor".[4]

Thirdly, on March 18, after having denied the allegation earlier in the week to CNN reporter Dana Bash, Dodd acknowledged that he was responsible for adding the provision in the economic stimulus package that allowed firms receiving bailout funds to distribute employee bonuses. Dodd admitted to the deception only after an unnamed source within the Treasury Department provided insider information to the network. [5] Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner admitted that he pushed Dodd into watering down the executive bonus limits in the stimulus bill.[6]

In December 2008, it was reported that Dodd had a little less than $670,000 banked for a re-election campaign, far less than other senators anticipated to seek re-election.[7] In February 2009, a poll indicated that Dodd's favorability ratings were slipping, and many Connecticut voters were not satisfied with Dodd's explanations regarding the mortgage.[8]

On March 17, 2009, the NRSC released a web ad attacking Dodd for his Irish cottage, his mortgage, and his relocation to Iowa in 2007.[9]

Dodd's decline of popularity

Election troubles

First elected in 1980, Christopher Dodd, the longest-serving U.S. Senator in Connecticut history, announced in a letter to the Federal Election Commission on January 17, 2007 that he was no longer a candidate for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2010. However, this may just have been a technicality in order to transfer funds to his presidential campaign as the declaration could be reversed at any time. A Dodd spokesman said, "It's a legality that isn't an indication of future plans."[10] According to Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele, Republican Governor Jodi Rell was likely running for re-election in 2010, so it was unlikely that either would run for the Senate.[11]

On March 2, 2009, noted pundit Michael Barone suggested Dodd was "ripe for the picking" in the 2010 election due to the fallout from his various controversies.[12] Nate Silver of the prominent website FiveThirtyEight.com suggested that if necessary, another Connecticut Democrat should primary Dodd. Silver rated Dodd as the single most vulnerable incumbent senator up for re-election in 2010. [13] On December 10, 2009 the Cook Political Report listed this race as "Lean Republican."

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Susan Bysiewicz was quoted suggesting Dodd's yet unannounced re-election bid could be a drag on the candidacies of other Connecticut Democrats in 2010. [14]

Many political leaders speculated Dodd could be persuaded to retire so as to preserve his "senior statesman" legacy.[15] Fellow Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman had indicated that he would have supported Dodd's reelection, despite past disagreements, including Dodd's 2006 endorsement of Ned Lamont[16] and Lieberman's support of John McCain's 2008 Presidential Campaign.

In fundraising reports issued for the first quarter of 2009, Dodd reported having raised over $1 million, but reported only five contributions from Connecticut residents.[17]

Poll numbers

A March 2009 Quinnipiac University poll confirmed Dodd's vulnerability; he failed to attain a 50% level of support against three lesser known possible Republican opponents.[18] On April 2, 2009 Quinnipiac released a poll indicating Dodd in serious danger of losing re-election, despite the fact that Connecticut is a heavily blue state that President Obama won in 2008 with over 60% of the vote.

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Announced

Potential

Declined

Campaign

Merrick Alpert announced his candidacy to challenge current Senator Chris Dodd in May of 2009[23]. Facing grave prospects at re-election, Dodd announced his retirement from the Senate on January 6, 2010.[24] Richard Blumenthal, the Attorney General and former State Senator announced he would be running.

Debates

Merrick Alpert and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal squared-off in a debate highlighting important issues. On healthcare, Alpert revealed that he supports a single-payer system. Blumenthal explained that pool-purchasing powers should be explored. Alpert presented information as to how insurance rates have skyrocketed in Connecticut since the Attorney General took office. On the topic of war, Blumenthal pledged his support of President Obama's current plan. Alpert expressed that, being a former peacekeeper in Bosnia, he understands what policies work and which ones do not. The current one does not. Alpert set out a plan for the withdrawal of troops from the current war in Afghanistan. On a question concerning relations with Cuba, Blumenthal explained that it would take time, and that he would put together a panel of Cuban-American people to decide the best course of action. Alpert explained that he would vote on the issue that night. [25]

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Richard Blumenthal Merrick Alpert Lee Whitnum Undecided
Quinnipiac March 9-15, 2010 81% 6% –– 13%
Quinnipiac January 8-12, 2010 84% 4% –– 12%

Republican nomination

Candidates

Announced

Potential

Declined

Campaign

On February 27, 2009, Commentary magazine reported that various Washington, D.C. Republicans were seeking to get Larry Kudlow, a popular TV talk show host and columnist, to enter the race against Dodd.[37]

After the Quinnipac poll that showed him barely edging Dodd in a potential matchup, Simmons decided to officially enter the race.[38] Upon his announcement, the DSCC attacked Simmons for his past support of George W. Bush and ties to Jack Abramoff and Tom DeLay.[39] A leading state political blogger, who had endorsed Simmons' opponent in 2006, questioned whether these issues were relevant to the 2010 race. [40]

State Senator Caligiuri originally planned to run the U.S. Senate, but after doing poorly in both primary and general election polling he decided to drop out and instead run the U.S. House of Representatives in the 5th District. Tom Foley has also left the race to instead run for Governor of Connecticut, as incumbent Governor M. Jodi Rell is not seeking re-election.

The Republican Liberty Caucus, the primary organization representing the libertarian wing of the GOP, endorsed Schiff in November 2009.[41]

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Rob Simmons Linda McMahon Peter Schiff
Quinnipiac March 9-15, 2010 34% 44% 9%
Quinnipiac January 8-12, 2010 37% 27% 4%
Moore Information December 15-16, 2009 35% 37% 4%
Quinnipiac November 3-8, 2009 28% 17% 5%
Quinnipiac September 10-14, 2009 43% -- 2%
Research 2000 September 8-10, 2009 38% -- 1%

Results

State Republican Convention results (first round)[42]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Linda McMahon * 737 51.76
Republican Rob Simmons * 632 44.62
Republican Peter Schiff 44 3.11
Republican Vincent Forras 7 0.49
Republican Ethan Book 0 0.00
Total votes 1,414 100.00

* Denotes candidate met the minimum threshold of 15 percent to appear on the primary ballot

Other candidates

Announced

Dr. John Mertens, Professor of Engineering at Trinity College in Hartford, CT, is on the ballot in November as the nominee of the Connecticut for Lieberman Party. He is also seeking the nominations of the Independent Party, Green Party, and Libertarian Party.

Potential

General election

Predictions

CQ Politics has rated this election as "likely Democratic."[45] The Cook Political Report changed this race to "toss up" on May 18, 2010 following Blumenthal's misstatements about his military service.[46][47]

Polling

With Blumenthal (D)

Poll source Dates administered Richard Blumenthal (D) Rob Simmons (R)
Rasmussen Reports May 18, 2010 50% 39%
Rasmussen Reports May 4, 2010 55% 32%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 52% 38%
Quinnipiac March 9-15, 2010 62% 26%
Rassmussen Reports March 2, 2010 58% 32%
Rassmussen Reports February 1, 2010 54% 35%
YouGovPolimetrix January 6-11, 2010 47% 34%
Daily Kos/Research 2000 January 11-13, 2010 54% 35%
Quinnipiac January 8-12, 2010 62% 27%
Rasmussen Reports January 6, 2010 56% 33%
Public Policy Polling January 4–5, 2010 59% 28%
Poll source Dates administered Richard Blumenthal (D) Linda McMahon (R)
Quinnipiac May 24-25, 2010 56% 31%
Rasmussen Reports May 18, 2010 48% 45%
Rasmussen Reports May 4, 2010 52% 39%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 55% 35%
Quinnipiac March 9-15, 2010 61% 28%
Rassmussen Reports March 2, 2010 60% 31%
Rasmussen Reports February 1, 2010 56% 36%
YouGovPolimetrix January 6-11, 2010 47% 35%
Daily Kos/Research 2000 January 11-13, 2010 56% 34%
Quinnipiac January 8-12, 2010 64% 23%
Rasmussen Reports January 6, 2010 58% 34%
Public Policy Polling January 4–5, 2010 60% 28%
Poll source Dates administered Richard Blumenthal (D) Peter Schiff (R)
Rasmussen Reports May 18, 2010 53% 37%
Rasmussen Reports May 4, 2010 54% 29%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 58% 32%
Quinnipiac March 9-15, 2010 64% 21%
Rassmussen Reports March 2, 2010 57% 27%
Daliy Kos/Research 2000 January 11-13, 2010 56% 33%
Quinnipiac January 8-12, 2010 66% 19%
Rasmussen Reports January 6, 2010 60% 24%
Public Policy Polling January 4–5, 2010 63% 23%

With Dodd (D)

Poll source Dates administered Christopher Dodd (D) Rob Simmons (R)
GQR December 15, 2009 46% 51%
Rasmussen Reports December 7, 2009 35% 48%
Quinnipiac November 3-8, 2009 38% 49%
Quinnipiac September 10-14, 2009 39% 44%
Research 2000 September 8-10, 2009 42% 46%
Rasmussen Reports September 10, 2009 39% 49%
Quinnipiac July 16-20, 2009 39% 48%
Wilson Research Strategies June 24–25, 2009 38% 47%
Quinnipiac May 20–25, 2009 39% 45%
Quinnipiac March 26–31, 2009 34% 50%
Research 2000 March 23–25, 2009 45% 40%
Quinnipiac March 3–8, 2009 42% 43%
Poll source Dates administered Christopher Dodd (D) Linda McMahon (R)
GQR December 15, 2009 46% 46%
Rasmussen Reports December 7, 2009 38% 44%
Quinnipiac November 3-8, 2009 41% 43%
Poll source Dates administered Christopher Dodd (D) Peter Schiff (R)
Rasmussen Reports December 7, 2009 39% 40%
Quinnipiac November 3-8, 2009 42% 41%
Quinnipiac September 10-14, 2009 42% 36%
Research 2000 September 8-10, 2009 47% 35%
Rasmussen Reports September 10, 2009 42% 40%
Quinnipiac July 16-20, 2009 43% 38%
Wilson Research Strategies June 24-25, 2009 42% 38%

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Linda McMahon (R) $14,575,232 $10,273,030 $4,302,202 $14,000,000
Rob Simmons (R) $2,898,392 $1,482,009 $1,416,432 $99,551
Peter Schiff (R) $2,549,229 $1,320,518 $1,228,710 $550,000
Richard Blumenthal (D) $1,880,040 $278,227 $1,601,813 $0
Merrick Alpert (D) $226,560 $218,492 $-2,487 $136,000
Source: Federal Election Commission[48]

References

  1. ^ http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_DODD_RETIREMENT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
  2. ^ http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-richard-blumenthal-chris-dodd-0106,0,2997693.story
  3. ^ http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1163
  4. ^ http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-ctpoll0926.artsep26,0,4404922.story
  5. ^ "BREAKING: I was responsible for bonus loophole, says Dodd". CNN.com. CNN. March 18, 2009.
  6. ^ "Geithner: Treasury pushed for bonus loophole". CNN.com. CNN. March 19, 2009.
  7. ^ http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecgifpdf2/?_28196+29020071245.pdf
  8. ^ "Connecticut's Rell Is Queen Of The Hill At Midterm, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dodd Has Worst Approval Ever". Quinnipiac University Poll (Press release). February 10, 2009.
  9. ^ [1]
  10. ^ "Dodd: About His "Retirement" Announcement". The Hotline. National Journal. 2007-02-20. Retrieved 2007-03-07.
  11. ^ "Rell likely to seek re-election, lieutenant governor says". Journal Inquirer. 2008-04-12. Retrieved 2008-04-27.
  12. ^ Michael Barone (March 2, 2009). "Chris Dodd is Ripe for the Picking". U.S. News and World Report.
  13. ^ [2]
  14. ^ Zeke Miller (March 6, 2009). "Dodd yet to declare bid". Yale Daily News.
  15. ^ Dean Pagani (January 19, 2009). "The New Guard". HartfordBusiness.com. Hartford Business Journal.
  16. ^ J. Taylor Rushing (March 11, 2009). "Frenemies Dodd and Lieberman make nice". The Hill.com. The Hill.
  17. ^ http://www.connpost.com/ci_12158273
  18. ^ "Connecticut's Dodd Tied With Simmons, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Loosen Pot Laws And Sell Liquor On Sunday". Quinnipiac University Poll (Press release). March 10, 2009.
  19. ^ http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/04/03/sen-dodd-may-get-primary-challenge/
  20. ^ http://newbritainherald.com/articles/2009/02/19/news/doc499ccdb19a67a140246762.txt
  21. ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31189.html
  22. ^ http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/74729-rep-chris-murphy-vs-lieberman
  23. ^ http://www.merrickforachange.com/node/18
  24. ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31189.html
  25. ^ http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/ctnj.php/archives/entry/alpert_goes_on_offensive_makes_most_of_first_debate/#cmt
  26. ^ http://www.linda2010.com/
  27. ^ Altimari, Daniela (September 17, 2009) "Peter Schiff Launches Senate Run", Hartford Courant. Retrieved on 2009-09-17.
  28. ^ http://www.fairfieldcitizenonline.com/default/article/Ethan-Book-announces-bid-for-U-S-Senate-381945.php
  29. ^ http://ctlocalpolitics.net/2009/04/04/and-then-there-were-four/
  30. ^ http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/election_2010/simmons_on_dodd_and_dodd_on_do.php
  31. ^ http://www.wggb.com/Global/story.asp?S=11566450
  32. ^ http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/12/foley-to-run-for-connecticut-g.html
  33. ^ Carter, Bill (March 24, 2009). "Kudlow of CNBC Rules Out Senate Race". New York Times. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  34. ^ Kudlow Not Running for U.S. Senate on YouTube
  35. ^ http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2009/02/06/shays-not-running-for-senate/
  36. ^ http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Simmons-ends-campaign-but-stays-on-ballot-499060.php
  37. ^ http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/rubin/56681
  38. ^ http://www.courant.com/news/local/statewire/hc-ap-ct-simmons-doddmar15,0,3135783.story
  39. ^ Eric Kleefeld (March 16, 2009). "DSCC Launches Anti-Bush Strategy To Attack Simmons". TPM Election Central. Talking Points Memo.
  40. ^ [3]
  41. ^ Republican Liberty Caucus. Republican Liberty Caucus Endorses Rand Paul, Peter Schiff... 2009-11-10
  42. ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37633.html
  43. ^ http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2010/01/us-senate-candidate-john-mertens-gains-ballot-line-in-ct/
  44. ^ "Nader Calls Decision To Run For Senate ‘Premature’", CT News Junkie. November, 27 2009
  45. ^ CQ Politics - Connecticut Senate Race Updated March 24, 2010
  46. ^ [4]
  47. ^ http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/3343
  48. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Connecticut". fec.gov. Retrieved May 1, 2010.

External links

Official campaign websites
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