2023 Atlantic hurricane season: Difference between revisions
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|<ref name="Dec21CSU">{{cite web |last=Evans |first=Steve |date=December 6, 2022 |title=TSR: 2023 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast to be 15% below norm |url=https://www.artemis.bm/news/tsr-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-activity-forecast-to-be-15-below-norm/ |access-date=December 6, 2022 |website=Artemis.bm |language=en}}</ref> |
|<ref name="Dec21CSU">{{cite web |last=Evans |first=Steve |date=December 6, 2022 |title=TSR: 2023 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast to be 15% below norm |url=https://www.artemis.bm/news/tsr-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-activity-forecast-to-be-15-below-norm/ |access-date=December 6, 2022 |website=Artemis.bm |language=en}}</ref> |
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|ACCU |
|align="left"|ACCU |
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|March 30, 2023 |
|align="left"|March 30, 2023 |
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|11-15 |
|11-15 |
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|4-8 |
|4-8 |
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Revision as of 16:30, 6 April 2023
| 2023 Atlantic hurricane season | |
|---|---|
| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | Season not started |
| Last system dissipated | Season not started |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Total fatalities | None |
| Total damage | None |
| Related articles | |
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is the upcoming Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially begins on June 1, and ends on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean (over 97%). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will begin issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, about two weeks prior to the start of the season.
Seasonal forecasts
| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
Ref |
| Average (1991–2020) | 14.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 | [1] | |
| Record high activity | 30 | 15 | 7† | [2] | |
| Record low activity | 4 | 2† | 0† | [2] | |
| TSR | December 6, 2022 | 13 | 6 | 3 | [3] |
| ACCU | March 30, 2023 | 11-15 | 4-8 | 1-3 | |
| TSR | April 6, 2023 | 12 | 6 | 2 | [4] |
| Actual activity |
0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| * June–November only † Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all) | |||||
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 74–126 units.[5] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[1]
Pre-season forecasts
On December 6, 2022, Tropical Storm Risk released their early prediction about the 2023 season. TSR expects the season to be 15% below average and for there to be 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.[3]
on April 6, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk updated their early pre-season prediction for the 2023 season. TSR has just slightly reduced their forecast from their Dec 6, 2022 numbers, bringing the numbers to 12 named storms 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. However, they do note that this particular forecast has large uncertainties and forecast skill at this range is very low. [6]
Systems
Other system
On January 16, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a special tropical weather outlook concerning a low-pressure area centered roughly 300 mi (480 km) north of Bermuda. The NHC noted that the low exhibited thunderstorm activity near its center but assessed its probability of transitioning into a tropical or subtropical cyclone as being near zero percent.[7] These thunderstorms may have developed due to the combination of the cyclone's position over the Gulf Stream, where sea surface temperatures were around 68–70 °F (20–21 °C), and cold air aloft, resulting in high atmospheric instability.[8] This tight cluster of storms was located within a broader storm system that brought snowfall to parts of coastal New England, including amounts of up to 4.5 in (110 mm) in portions of Massachusetts.[9] The disturbance, designated Invest 90L by the NHC, brought wind gusts of over 60 mph (100 km/h) to Sable Island on the night of January 16, while moving northward toward the Cabot Strait. This prompted Environment Canada to issue wind warnings for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The next day, it crossed over extreme eastern Nova Scotia as a weakening storm, before dissipating over the western coast of Newfoundland late that same day.[10] Meteorologist Rick Knabb, former director of the NHC, noted that the system may have been a subtropical cyclone.[11]
Storm names
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2023. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2024. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2029 season. This is the same list used in the 2017 season, with the exceptions of Harold, Idalia, Margot, and Nigel, which replaced Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate, respectively.
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Season effects
This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, intensities, areas affected, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2023 USD.
| Saffir–Simpson scale | ||||||
| TD | TS | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 |
| Storm name |
Dates active | Storm category at peak intensity |
Max 1-min wind mph (km/h) |
Min. press. (mbar) |
Areas affected | Damage (USD) |
Deaths | Ref(s) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season aggregates | ||||||||||
| 0 systems | Season not started | 0 (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
See also
- Weather of 2023
- Tropical cyclones in 2023
- Atlantic hurricane season
- 2023 Pacific hurricane season
- 2023 Pacific typhoon season
- 2023 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
- South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2022–23, 2023–24
- Australian region cyclone seasons: 2022–23, 2023–24
- South Pacific cyclone seasons: 2022–23, 2023–24
Notes
References
- ^ a b "Background Information: North Atlantic Hurricane Season". College Park, Maryland: Climate Prediction Center. April 9, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
- ^ a b "Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT version 2)" (Database). United States National Hurricane Center. April 5, 2023. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
- ^ a b Evans, Steve (December 6, 2022). "TSR: 2023 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast to be 15% below norm". Artemis.bm. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
- ^ http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApril2023.pdf
- ^ Saunders, Marc; Lea, Adam (December 9, 2020). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2021" (PDF). tropicalstormrisk.com. London, UK: University College London. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
- ^ http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApril2023.pdf
- ^ Cangialosi, John (January 16, 2022). Two Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved January 17, 2022.
- ^ Erdman, Jonathan (January 17, 2023). "Did A January Subtropical Storm Form Off The East Coast?". Weather Underground. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
- ^ Shapiro, Emily; Wnek, Samantha (January 17, 2023). "National Hurricane Center issues rare January tropical weather outlook". ABC News. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
- ^ Baker, Aaron (January 17, 2023). "Rare January disturbance in Atlantic moves into Canada". FOX Weather. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
- ^ Knabb, Rick [@DrRickKnabb] (January 16, 2023). "This hybrid system is candidate to add to historical database after the fact as subtropical storm. There's operational discretion on handling such systems in real time but it's borderline non-frontal, weak shear inside cutoff low, & powered in part by relatively warm Gulf Stream" (Tweet). Retrieved January 17, 2023 – via Twitter.
External links
