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This article has been mentioned by multiple media organizations:

Sarah McBroom (March 27, 2007). "Conservapedia.com -- an encyclopedic message from the right". Scripps Howard News Service.
Michael Booth (April 30, 2007). "Grading Wikipedia". The Denver Post.
Lawrence Solomon (July 8, 2008). "Wikipropaganda On Global Warming". CBS News.

This page is not a forum for general discussion about Climate change. Any such comments may be removed or refactored. Please limit discussion to improvement of this article. You may wish to ask factual questions about Climate change at the Reference desk.

Discussions on this page often lead to previous arguments being restated. Please read recent comments, look in the archives, and review the FAQ before commenting.

faq page

Frequently asked questions

To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ.

Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

Archives

Index 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30
31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40
41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50
51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60
61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70
71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80
81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90
91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96

/Terminology section /General discussion

This page has archives. Sections older than 21 days may be automatically archived by when more than 4 sections are present.

Misleading graphs

The two headline graphs on the page - 'global temperatures' and 'surface and satellite temperatures' - are both somewhat misleading, and more suitable for advocacy than NPOV.

Aside from the widespread criticism of the GISS temperature record - others are more widely accepted by both skeptics and proponents - the first graph should be clearly labelled as anomalies, not temperatures. There has been (RS) criticism that it is (perhaps deliberately, probably subconsciously) chosen and presented in such a way as to create a link between the idea 'global temperature' and a graph spiking sharply upwards - although I can't find the source for that assertion right now, and it's probably not worth taking into account. Still, it should at least be properly titled.

The second graph is simply a puff-piece. Why is the trend measured over the period since Jan 1982, which just happens to start at the bottom of a trough? There's an interesting blink-graph I've seen somewhere which cycles through a number of different trend-lines fitted to the same data over different periods. If someone can track that down, it might be a good neutral piece to use.

I'm loathe to remove the graphs without any replacements ready, but they're not great as they are. The first is better than the second, but really neither is great. 94.170.107.247 (talk) 01:38, 12 February 2011 (UTC)Dave[reply]

Dave, before we begin, you need to realize that your claims holds no weight until it has been reliably sourced. Verifiability is a Wikipedia policy. On scientific articles such as this, academic and peer-reviewed publications are expected. I hope you appreciate that an assertion does not determine what goes into the article, but a sourced claim, and your sourced claim will be compared against those found on the image's file description. With this said, let's see your sources. --Tony 155.99.230.205 (talk) 07:06, 12 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Tony, on what basis are you claiming this article is "scientific"? The name clearly isn't scientific, it is the popular name of a political campaign. Global warming is no more scientific than "save the penguins". Yes you can draw graph after graph after graph and claim that the numbers of penguins is basically science, but anyone can see that you'd at least give it a scientific sounding name like AGW. To put in bluntly, this article is about global warming, it is not about global warming science, because if it was, that is the name it would have.85.211.192.249 (talk) 16:07, 15 February 2011 (UTCt

@85.211, This article is a parent article which covers the entire climate change topic, including an entire field of scientific inquiry. I imagine that's what Tony means by "scientific", and if so, he would be correct. I can't address your particular concerns above until I have reliable sources to compare, so tracking those down would be useful for this discussion. All the best, — Jess· Δ ♥ 17:25, 15 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The reason Dragons Filght chose the period he did for the trend is indicated in the description of the file [1]. Personally, despite those reasons, I'd prefer to see the trend calculated for the whole Dec 1978 to present and have asked him on his talk page to do so, if he updates the graph.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 01:53, 9 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The state-of-the-art way to measure global temperature is the radiosounde data as measured by HadAT2. That's the graph that should get top billing. The most misleading of these graphs is the third one, labelled "Reconstructed Temperature". This is the infamous "hide-the-decline" graph, with the line for instrumental data spliced on in such a way as to hide the decline in the reconstructed temperature. Kauffner (talk) 09:48, 5 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

You should be aware that the junkscience website is ironically named. Sailsbystars (talk) 11:42, 5 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

But it's good to see (from an accuracy point of view) that even some of their graphs indicate an upward trend in the temperature of the troposphere. One problem with the sonde data, at least as presented there, is that it gives temperature at various heights above sea level. The greenhouse effect will cause cooling if you go high enough - at the level of the stratosphere which sondes reach.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 18:39, 5 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Global Dimming in lede

The following ends the first paragraph of the lede:

"Global dimming, a phenomenon of increasing atmospheric concentrations of man-made aerosols, which affect cloud properties and block sunlight from reaching the surface, has partially countered the effects of warming induced by greenhouse gases."

Any views on it?

Personally I don't think it should be there as it confuses the intro. --IanOfNorwich (talk) 12:57, 18 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Global dimming is organized into "External forcing" in the article, but so is Solar variation. If the objective of the sentence were to acknowledge the main negative forcings and feedbacks, then blackbody radiation has certainly been omitted. My view is that while it's important, it's not important in context of the lead unless there's broader picture to go with it. I concur with Ian. --CaC 155.99.230.160 (talk) 17:06, 18 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

So we're actually global cooling, with the effects offset by global warming? Fukenstein (talk) 06:23, 21 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Hi Fukenstein, I wouldn't put it that way. Soot etc in the atmosphere has a cooling effect, increased greenhouse gases have a warming effect. The warming effect is much greater than the cooling. I'd say that the warming would be even more pronounced if not for the effect of 'global dimming'. --IanOfNorwich (talk) 13:27, 21 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It's not primarily "soot", but aerosols in general. Soot, i.e. black carbon, increases the effects of global warming, at least on ice and snow. Sulfate aerosols provide most of the cooling. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 14:36, 21 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I stand corrected.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 15:22, 21 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

You're welcome. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:39, 21 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Reqest for evidence against global warming page:

http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/2007%2005-03%20AusIMM%20corrected.pdf

If you read this published journal article you will realise how biased this article is. I have tried to raise some similar points about he content here, but have had my post deleted several times. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 122.148.169.38 (talk) 01:42, 22 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Let's get your facts straight before we start. The paper is from a conference ("The AusIMM New Leaders’ Conference") not journal, and it's from his self-published website. --CaC 155.99.230.219 (talk) 04:07, 22 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

So it still seems to me, based on the discussion, that particulates are causing global cooling...however, this cooling is being offset by global warming. I think this message needs to be made clearer in the lede. Fukenstein (talk) 05:23, 22 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Well I took a look at the above document, I got as far as "Whether dangerous human-caused climate change is a fact, possibly a fact or a fabrication depends on who you choose to believe." ie the first sentence. Anyone who believes that is lost. Considering what interpretations best fit the information you have is the way to proceed. I have time to engage with anyone on this topic but not to read polemics. --IanOfNorwich (talk) 09:55, 22 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

@Fukenstein Soot and aerosols already has an entire section, and there's not really a good place to mention it in the lede and nor can it be easily summarized in a form appropriate to the lede. Sailsbystars (talk) 12:21, 22 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

@ Fukenstien It is wrong to suggest particulates are causing global cooling, since the global temperatures are rising. Suggesting global cooling is being offset by global warming would be akin to saying that a person is floating on the surface of pool, yet that their flotation is offset by the fact that they are sinking.137.111.13.200 (talk) 00:48, 24 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

"Changes in the global climate are the result of a complex combination of forcings and feedbacks. Increased greenhouse gases cause warming, warming has led to loss of ice albedo, melting permafrost is releasing further greenhouse gases, and dark soot particles on white ice also lead to a loss in reflectivity. On the other hand, particulates and aerosols in the atmosphere can reduce insolation and can also seed cloud formation that further reduces solar energy input. Warmer air can hold more water vapor, and this is itself an effective greenhouse gas. At the same time, the warmer atmosphere radiates more heat away into space. The overall effect of these, and all the other processes in play, in the last century or more has been the observed increase in global surface temperatures."

How about that? We are meant to be summarising the article, and that is my attempt at summarising sections 2 and 3. Picking out only aerosols for summary in the lede is not right, but of course summarising more makes the summary longer. --Nigelj (talk) 19:15, 24 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

As far as my understanding goes it seems an excellent and accurate summary of the main processes involved. Only problem is it's additional to an already large lede. We could loose some existing bits.

"Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation" to "Global warming is the continuing/ongoing increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century."
"As a result of contemporary increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, the oceans have become more acidic, a result that is predicted to continue." could go, true but not rel here.

There are other bits that can be lost or shortened....

--IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:01, 24 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Planetary boundaries

Add CO₂ in the atmosphere is a Planetary boundaries metric for climate change/global warming. 99.56.120.165 (talk) 19:01, 28 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Why? — Arthur Rubin (talk) 00:51, 29 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Isn't it obvious? Continued habitability of the Earth is why global warming is notable. If you read the article from Scientific American April 2010 ( http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=boundaries-for-a-healthy-planet "Boundaries for a Healthy Planet" by Jonathan Foley, Gretchen C. Daily, Robert Howarth, David A. Vaccari, Adele C. Morris, Eric F. Lambin, Scott C. Doney, Peter H. Gleick and David W. Fahey ) you'll find this boundary has already been crossed (350 ppm, in the late 1980's), that is why all the global melting. The excess carbon dioxide not only contributes to the climate change/greenhouse effect/global warming, it also increases ocean acidification, among other undesirable effects. 216.250.156.66 (talk) 19:41, 29 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Again, why? That's a secondary or tertiary connection. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 20:10, 29 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I am having a little difficulty parsing the opening sentence. Possibly the anonymous originator meant to say something like "Please add discussion of 'CO₂ in the atmosphere as a Planetary boundaries metric for climate change/global warming.'" Well, adding something like that to the article is something we might discuss, and it might even be A Good Thing. But I can't see doing so just because someone is excited about a single article. At the very least I would want to see an argument as to why that is important. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:00, 30 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Resource: "Boundaries for a Healthy Planet" by Jonathan Foley, Gretchen C. Daily, Robert Howarth, David A. Vaccari, Adele C. Morris, Eric F. Lambin, Scott C. Doney, Peter H. Gleick and David W. Fahey Scientific American April 2010 99.190.85.150 (talk) 18:52, 30 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

(You're repeating yourself.) Even if it were appropriate to spam links to the "Planetary boundaries" article for each boundary, it shouldn't be linked to this article, but to a more specific one on, say greenhouse gases. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 19:43, 30 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, that is a citation. So? I see no argument or statement as to why it should be included. In that it is yet to be answered I will repeat Arthur's question: why? - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:42, 30 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Why would greenhouse gases be more appropriate as per Talk:Planetary boundaries Climate change/Global warming is a "Planetary Boundary"? 99.119.128.35 (talk) 21:24, 30 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Because the "boundary" is said to be CO₂ in the atmosphere; if the planetary boundaries should be linked from any of the articles, it should be from the one most appropriate, which is greenhouse gases, rather than the consequence, global warming. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 10:31, 31 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Per Planetary boundaries the planetary boundary in the table is Climate change and the description is CO₂ in the atmosphere (metric). 108.73.113.97 (talk) 00:14, 1 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Even in reliable sources, titles and subtitles are not considered acceptable. How much less are titles in subtitles within a Wikipedia article? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Arthur Rubin (talk • contribs) 05:35, 1 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

As in Talk:Drinking_water#Planetary_boundaries, what subtitles? It is a list of boundaries, of which global warming/climate change is one. 99.190.87.1 (talk) 18:27, 1 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The "boundary" is CO₂ concentration, not warming. Even if it should be linked (where, there is at most one editor not in your cluster of IPs, in agreement), it should be from a related article, such as greenhouse gases. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 06:14, 2 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Enough! This rambling, poorly enunciated discussion should be put out of its misery. The original poster wants links back to the Planetary boundaries article — see the list of targeted articles at Talk:Planetary boundaries#Include link from each boundaries' corresponding wp article?. That is a poorly sourced (as in one incompletely cited source) stub article on a obscure and not yet notable topic. Variants of this discussion are taking place on half a dozen articles, largely between Arthur and a handful of anonymous IP addresses (and one red-linked account). All of these efforts are facets of only one effort: to increase the links back to weak article. I suggest any further discussion should be referred back to Talk:Planetary boundaries. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 19:12, 2 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Critics' review unexpectedly supports scientific consensus on global warming

See here:

A team of UC Berkeley physicists and statisticians that set out to challenge the scientific consensus on global warming is finding that its data-crunching effort is producing results nearly identical to those underlying the prevailing view. The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project was launched by physics professor Richard Muller, a longtime critic of government-led climate studies, to address what he called "the legitimate concerns" of skeptics who believe that global warming is exaggerated.

Count Iblis (talk) 17:24, 9 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The way to give credibility to a false conclusion is to include some truth. What they did was analyze the same temperature data that others had (well, OK, 2% of it) and produced about the same anomaly trajectory. (That would be the truth part). The ‘scientific consensus on global warming’, which is that human activity caused global warming, was not challenged.

The on-going temperature down trend and atmospheric carbon dioxide uptrend will do that. Dan Pangburn (talk) 01:37, 10 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

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[WMO-FAQS-2] "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.

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[9] Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.

[10] The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.

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[12] Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.

[13] The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.

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[21] Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

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@@ Line 161: / Line 161: @@
 [[User:Count Iblis|Count Iblis]] ([[User talk:Count Iblis|talk]]) 17:24, 9 April 2011 (UTC)
+The way to give credibility to a false conclusion is to include some truth. What they did was analyze the same temperature data that others had (well, OK, 2% of it) and produced about the same anomaly trajectory. (That would be the truth part). The ‘scientific consensus on global warming’, which is that human activity caused global warming, was not challenged.
+The on-going temperature down trend and atmospheric carbon dioxide uptrend will do that.
+[[User:Dan Pangburn|Dan Pangburn]] ([[User talk:Dan Pangburn|talk]]) 01:37, 10 April 2011 (UTC)