Talk:Climate change

Additional info on regional emissions

In bold text below is my suggested addition to the section on greenhouse gases:

Over the last three decades of the 20th century, GDP per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[51] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[52][53]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. The two figures opposite show annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2005, including land-use change. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.[54]:93[55]:289 For example, concentrating on more recent changes in land-use (as the figures opposite do) is likely to favour those regions that have deforested earlier, e.g., Europe.

Emissions can also be measured over longer time periods. Measuring cumulative CO2 emissions gives some indication of who is responsible for the build-up in the concentration of the gas in the atmosphere (IEA, 2007, p.199) and consequently, who is historically most responsible for the impacts of global warming (Banuri et al, 1996, p105; UNEP, 2010, p12; IPCC, 2001, p67). Between the start of the industrial revolution and 2004, developing and least-developed economies, who represent 80% of the world's population, accounted for 23% of cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning (Raupach et al, 2007, discussion section).

References:

• Banuri, T., K. Göran-Mäler, M. Grubb, H.K. Jacobson and F. Yamin (1996) (PDF). Equity and Social Considerations. In: Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.P. Bruce, H. Lee and E.F. Haites, (eds.)). This version: Printed by Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. PDF version: IPCC website. doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 978-0-521-56854-8.
• IEA (2007). World Energy Outlook 2007 Edition- China and India Insights. International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Communication and Information Office, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. p. 600. ISBN 9789264027305. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
• IPCC (2001). 3.16. In Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team, (eds). Question 3. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: GRID-Arendal website. Retrieved 2011-04-16.
• Raupach, M.R. et al. (12 June 2007). Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. PNAS 104 (24): 10288–10293. doi:10.1073/pnas.0700609104. PMID 17519334. Retrieved 2011-03-30.
• UNEP (November 2010). Technical summary (PDF). The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C? A preliminary assessment (advance copy). United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) website. Retrieved 2011-05-11. This publication is also available in e-book format

I see this addition as only being fair. My interpretation of "fair" is based on my reading of the UNFCCC treaty, which most countries have ratified (first bit of the treaty). Enescot (talk) 15:55, 17 July 2011 (UTC)

I'm ok with that, and note that these are not the only ways to think about GHG buildup. I wouldn't mind having this article just alert readers that international negotiations are largely driven by each party's preferred method and moving the details about different approaches to another article, such as the greenhouse gas or attribution articles, but here works for me too NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:36, 17 July 2011 (UTC)

I am not OK with adding this. This is too specific for this article. It can perhaps go in the GHG page. But not here. Abel Love (talk) 07:12, 18 July 2011 (UTC)

I agree. Not appropriate for this article. Fine for greenhouse gas. -Atmoz (talk) 15:02, 18 July 2011 (UTC)

Enescot reply to comments

Why should regional annual emissions be preferred to regional cumulative emissions? In my opinion, concentrating on annual emissions, as this section of the article does, is implicitly biased in favour of rich countries. I should note that regional emissions are already mentioned in the later politics section of the article, i.e.,:

'[...] the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.[...]

In my opinion, the above info on regional emissions is perfectly acceptable since it is an objective description of a key part of UNFCCC negotiations.

One way of avoiding this problem would be to delete information on regional emissions in the greenhouse gas section of the article. Information could be added on sectoral emissions as a replacement. I think that the two diagrams on annual emissions should be deleted:

Per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, including land-use change.

Total greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, including land-use change.

To replace these diagrams, a new figure could be added on sectoral emissions:

Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 3.2, fast track 2000 project

I think that info on regional emissions in the greenhouse gas section (in bold) should also be deleted: -

{i} Over the last three decades of the 20th century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[45] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[46][47]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. The two figures opposite show annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2005, including land-use change. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.[48]:93[49]:289

The first part of the above paragraph {i} is already partly duplicated in the preceeding paragraph of the article, i.e.,:

Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[44]

The issue of relating emissions to economic growth and population could then be integrated into the following paragraph of the article, i.e., :

Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 3.2, fast track 2000 project

[...] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.

Over the last three decades of the 20th century, increases in world population and gross domestic product per head of world population were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments [...]

I've altered the first sentence since people may not know what "per capita" means. Enescot (talk) 19:38, 19 July 2011 (UTC)

Report the debate

These approaches are all equally valid and important to international discussions on the issue. By picking one and being silent about the others is to inject a POV even if that's unintentional. The US wants to look at annual emissions; China wants to look at cumulative; others want to look at sectors on a global level. What's a poor wiki schmuck to do? ANSWER: Don't pick one over the other, but report on the contentious international debate.

Where to do that is another question. Not in Global warming, I agree. But the Greenhouse Gasarticle suffers from an identity crisis. Parts of it appear to be intended to cover greenhouse gas in general (any planet, any geologic period). Other parts drift to coverage of Earth-right-now. I'd like to see the general aspects of Greenhouse gas merged with the general article Greenhouse effect, the remaining earth-right-now information being renamed Greenhouse gas buildup, and then this information could go there. Maybe someone can offer a better idea, but the main point is: we should report fact that there are massive policy and economic implications that favor one party or another for each of these number crunching methods and that's often the core of international treaty talks. So all these charts are useful, provided the presentation is well done.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:25, 21 July 2011 (UTC)

Current per capita emissions are at least comparatively straight forward apart from the land use change issue. Historic emissions intended as a fair representation of responsibility is complicated - should it be per current population, is it as bad to have emitted greenhouse gasses without knowing the problems they will cause? Just for a start. I take Enescots point that having already industrialised developed countries have already benefited from it - assuming you think all of it's consequences a benefit. Given the complexity I agree with NAEG that we can't try to fairly address it here. I think Greenhouse Gas should remain more or less as it describing what it says oin the tin - any planet. I'm in favour of taking the emissions from Greenhouse Gas and coving it, linked from here, in more detail.I would prefer to call it Greenhouse Gas Emissions rather than Greenhouse gas buildup. I'm against removing the emissions graphs from this article.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 08:53, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

The total emmisions by region map should be changed to emission per mile i.e. emission density by region to be visually meaningful. Otherwise the color would just be an indicator of how big the country is on the map, which you can already see by looking at, well, how big the country is on the map. Kevin Baas^talk 14:28, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

Dr Roy Spencer paper published in Remote Sensing

I think this information should be incorporated into the article. I am including a link to the original scientific paper, as well as a secondary source.

Perhaps the article could say, "A 2011 peer reviewed scientific paper showed that real world measurements of heat trappage by carbon dioxide was less than what had been predicted by computer models." 74.98.32.99 (talk) 18:55, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

• Forbes magazine via yahoo.com
• http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf

-- 74.98.32.99 (talk) 18:09, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

Roy Spencer blows gaping hole in foot again, claims promoted by a senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute. Both have quite the track record on climate change. . . dave souza, talk 18:37, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

This particular scientific paper was peer reviewed. It meets the criteria for inclusion in the article. There is no need to wage personal attacks on the author of the study - we should stick to the study itself. 74.98.32.99 (talk) 18:51, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

At the moment I write this the link to the supposed peer reviewed paper is dead, so at the moment there's nothing there to incorporate. The Forbes piece, on the other hand, was an editorial written by someone at the Heartland Institute, the same folks that Big Tobacco used to attack the scientific finding that smoking causes cancer. Your were a bit vague how you think that information should be incorporated in the article. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:49, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

Perhaps the link isn't dead, and has just been overwhelmed by internet traffic. I do agree with you that if we can't access it, we shouldn't use it. Perhaps someone else with more knowledge of these things can find a more reliable link. 74.98.32.99 (talk) 18:51, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:BT-FOWVtVQ4J:www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf+http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=opera&source=www.google.com — Preceding unsigned comment added by 64.185.49.226 (talk) 18:54, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

That's great - thanks for posting it! 74.98.32.99 (talk) 18:57, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

Premature, no impact and comes from known fringe sources. . . dave souza, talk 18:59, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

"no impact"? Have you read the article? --64.185.49.226 (talk) 19:37, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

NASA "fringe" source? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 64.185.49.226 (talk) 19:06, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

NASA is not the source. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:08, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

The data is from NASA. That would make NASA the source.--64.185.49.226 (talk) 19:44, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

Perhaps this anonymous poster didn't think Question 21 of the FAQ ("this really interesting recent peer reviewed paper") didn't apply because it addresses real scientific papers, and the source here, the Heartland Institute, isn't really scientific. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 19:48, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

See Merchants of Doubt (and Requiem for a Species) regarding trackrecord (Climate change denial, Media coverage of climate change, Global warming controversy). 216.250.156.66 (talk) 19:52, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

J, unless you can demonstrate that author Dr Spencer was somehow directed, coerced, paid, or whatever by Heartland Inst, then at best (worst?) we can say that Heartland was the source for the James Taylor editorial in Forbes that was later echoed across the blogosphere. As for the data, that appears to be NASA data, and as for the source of the article in question, that appears to be Dr Roy Spencer and William "Danny" Blaswell both of U of Alabama-Huntsville. I don't know what Dr Blaswell's specialty is. All that to one side, I agree that any consideration of including this is premature. For one thing, interested editors should have a chance to read it on the open-access journal's website so we know we're reading a version that has not been altered in any way. At present the journal appears to be offline.

If the journal were online right now, I would still say that this thread is a prohibited forum debate because it lacks specific suggestions for improving the article. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:24, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

Does William "Danny" Blaswell work with Roy Spencer (scientist) and John Christy of University of Alabama in Huntsville? Christy is on Talk:Richard A. Muller. 99.190.86.162 (talk) 23:46, 28 July 2011 (UTC)

This is peer reviewed research sponsored by the Department of Energy. At least a sentence should be devoted to this key finding. Jhon Sanders (talk) 05:41, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

Another paper by creationist Roy Spencer. What's next, a journal article about Jesus riding dinosaurs? Hey, guess who had a webpage on the Heartland Institute website? Yep, Roy Spencer. Spencer opposes environmentalism and anthropogenic global warming because it smells like "paganism". He also wants to undo the ban on DDT, and he argues that adopting "the policy preferences of environmentalists...can even be contrary to the church's stated mission. The church has not been told the truth about the negative, unintended consequences that will result from the global warming policies they now endorse."[1] His basic premise? Do nothing and let God sort it out. Spencer has quite an audience in the U.S. where only 32 per cent of adults believe in Darwinian evolution. It is 2011, and yet the majority of Americans have the intellectual mindset of someone from the 17th century. This isn't science fiction folks. Viriditas (talk) 07:25, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

May I remind editors to step away from casting judgement on the author and comment on the 'paper' itself, and discuss if it warrants inclusion from Wikipedia's guidelines and not whether you agree or not with their beliefs. Whether he is a creationist, a flat earther, a Mooney or likes painting his arse blue at the weekends is irrelevant. The same should be said for the Heartland institute, it is not our job (though it is common knowledge), to exclude information because they received money from oil companies or have had links with denialism in the past. This is not a court of law where we remove information saying X isn't a reliable witness, we look at the information itself and don't disparage the author, if it is a salient feature then we let other sources do that. Firstly we verify does the source meet the guidelines on reliably sourced, i.e. in this case was it peer reviewed and published in a location that is acceptable to Wikipedia. As JJ stated above look at the FAQ not every paper should be included as per WP:WEIGHT. The last criteria is notability, has the paper received attention in the mainstream press which might warrant it's inclusion, but my personal belief would be it needs to be pretty much in most of the broadsheets for this to apply. Cheers ^Khukri 07:30, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

The point is that Spencer believes a priori that environmentalism/climate change/global warming etc. is bogus. He will not accept contradictory evidence challenging his beliefs. That's neither skeptical nor scientific. Viriditas (talk) 07:38, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

And unfortunately that is not this topic of discussion, I believed we were talking about the paper presented by the IP at the top of this section. Cheers ^Khukri 07:40, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

Read WP:RS. It most certainly is a topic. Viriditas (talk) 07:42, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

Would you care to expand on that and show me where in the policy it says we cannot include a paper because we don't like what the author stands for? Stick to the paper and it's quality. Personally if I were you I would start looking more toward academic consensus and the source itself instead of the author. Cheers ^Khukri 07:49, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

RS is a guideline about how to identify reliable sources. We never "stick" only to a publication; we always evaluate a source based on multiple criteria, including the author, publisher, type of paper, etc. Surely you've read RS and are familiar with it by now? Viriditas (talk) 07:57, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

Now you are getting insulting, I've tried to point you in the right direction and you still haven't shown where it states that we exclude information because your views differ to the authors, stick to the paper and leave out the attacks. ^Khukri 08:09, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

There is nothing insulting about observing that you are not familiar with our RS guideline. Could I ask you to please read it in its entirety before composing another reply? Thanks. Viriditas (talk)

<edit conflict>Taking an adversarial approach may work with some editors but not me, all I have done is just asked you to calm down the rhetoric and stick to the subject at hand, the paper that was presented. You many not believe you are insulting, but casting aspersion on my knowledge is an insult, casting aspersions on the beliefs of 2/3rds of Americans is an insult. These are personal attacks based on your values, your POV and your personal distaste for the author, americans, creationism which has little to do with whether the paper qualifies or not for inclusion. I couldn't make it any clearer grounds for inclusion or non inclusion, just simply put, let me ask not to see posts of the This isn't science fiction folks type again please. Cheers ^Khukri 08:50, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

The RS guideline, which you don't appear to have read or acknowledged that you have read, is at odds with your opinion. Observing that a 2009 Pew poll indicates that a majority of Americans do not believe in evolution is a fact, not an insult, although many might be horrified at this ghastly state of affairs. Lastly, I am an American, and I have the luxury (because I was born here) of being free to criticize, more important for me to do so as an American because the majority of climate denial originates in the United States. It's also important to note the inability of Americans to understand basic scientific concepts and their increasing difficulty in participating in society as informed, knowledgeable citizens who are able to make good decisions and elect capable representatives who also understand the science. None of these things are considered personal attacks. You say that these facts are based on values and POV, but they exist independently of both. It may be possible that one can be a creationist and a good scientist, however the author in question has published his beliefs on the matter, indicating a priori that he will not accept the scientific evidence—see Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians, and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor (2010)—and is more concerned with manufacturing doubt on behalf of special interest groups like the Heartland Institute to support his religious beliefs. And if you have any doubts, his book is published by Encounter Books, a conservative publisher that appears to be strangely obsessed with religion and denying climate change.[2] It is a real cornucopia of wild, wacky stuff, with the positing of the discredited abiogenic petroleum origin theory on p. 156, his belief that overfishing leads to the replenishment of ocean fish on p. 157, and the claim on p. 85 that AGW is based on faith not science and that there is no scientific consensus on AGW according to...wait for it...the Heartland Institute! That's only three pages, mind you. There's a glaring problem with facts on every page of the book. As if that wasn't enough, Spencer has claimed his entire approach to looking at nature is informed by a "biblical basis".[3] This is a red flag per the RS guideline. When evaluating a source for reliability we ask three primary questions about the reliability of the article, the author, and the publisher: 1) is the article reliable? Is it a secondary source or a primary? Is it peer-reviewed? Is it an isolated study? Is it cited in the literature? 2) Is the author reliable? Does he hold an authoritative, significant viewpoint? 3) Is the publisher reliable? Does it have a reputation for fact-checking and accuracy? Viriditas (talk) 10:35, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

See FAQ at the top of this page, Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...? . . dave souza, talk 08:31, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

And as an apropos example why we are careful not include individual brand-new papers, take a look at the history of the UAH satellite temperature dataset, by John Christy and Spencer, and how it has been corrected multiple times, from "there is no warming" to "good agreement with ground-based temperature records" (which show significant warming). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 08:49, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

(edit conflict)

An imperfect data set? Where have we heard that story before? "Am I the first person to attempt to get the CRU databases in working order?!!" "It's botch after botch after botch." "As far as I can see, this renders the (weather) station counts totally meaningless." "I've worked all weekend, and just when I thought it was done, I'm hitting yet another problem that's based on the hopeless state of our databases." Yes, the Harry read me file, the tale of one anonymous programmer's heroic struggle with what sounds like the most frustrating dataset on the planet. Kauffner (talk) 06:07, 6 August 2011 (UTC)

For what it's worth I'm very much inclined to treat Roy Spencers work with caution as there seem to have been errors in it before (his article declined by Nature, the many errors in early versions of the UAH data set and you should see his excel speadsheet climate model that used to be on his website). However, I'd rather discuss the data / interpretations than the man. Same as we should stick to content rather than comments about editors. My time is limited but I've had a brief look at the paper. The conclusion seems to be refuting the methods used e.g. in "A Determination of the Cloud Feedback from Climate Variations over the Past Decade, A. E. Dessler". They suggest that the ENSO is largely radiatively forced (rather than primarily the result of heat transfer between air and ocean) and that as such a comparison of atmsf. temp anomalies and radiative anomolies at the top of the atmosphere can't be reliably used to establish cloud feedback because the radiative anomoly is partly due to the forcing. I haven't got to an understanding of why they believe this to be the case, yet. I would have thought that this would lead to an overestimate of (negative) feedback (lambda) rather than the underestimate they suggest. I haven't got very far yet with the section on time lagged comparisons but the Y-axis of figure 2b seems to be mislabeled and should be watts per square meter not watts per square meter per kelvin. If anyone else wants to pick this up and try to tease out detail I'd be interested but we certainly can't add to the article without an understanding of the sources we use.....--IanOfNorwich (talk) 10:03, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

A couple of possible unreliable pointers which may help with following the paper. The journal seems to be only two years old, and only tangentially related to climate modelling. . dave souza, talk 12:16, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

Discussions of Dr Spencers past reliability are relevant in the context of establishing the weight to give this new paper. This is not an appropriate place to talk about the content in that paper. There are probably threads at RealClimate, SkepticalScience etc for objectively talking about the facts, methods, and interpretation in the paper. IMO, Dr Spencer's past track record merits caution, and this particular paper needs time to mature before it acquires sufficient wiki-weight to overcome his past unreliability. Also on weight, (A) Author must pay to be published in Remote Sensing. Does that make it self published? I don't know. What are the peer review policies for that journal? (B) Spencer's paper attacked computer models while remaining silent about tons of observational data. An outlier that attacks the existence of the inside of the circle while admitting through silence that there is an outside to the circle has a rather large conceptual flaw. For all these reasons, this paper presently carries very little weight with me, though I am reluctantly willing to admit that I may change my mind in the future. Will the new paper be cited as supporting material in a future peer-reviewed literature review article by reliable sources, or will those who understand it better find large holes in the methodology? We should wait and see. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:26, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

Why should your observational opinions carry more weight than Dr. Spencer? This is a long standing occurance on these pages. Research which questions or finds fault with the predescribed "truth" about global warming are attacked and marginalized from all points. Arzel (talk) 15:47, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

Lonnie Thompson was awarded the US' highest honor in science. Will his observations suffice? ::“Climate Change: The Evidence and Our Options". I'm not bashing Dr Spencer's paper out of hand, I'm just saying it hasn't acquired the weight necessary for inclusion here..... yet. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:37, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

A long standing occurrence on these pages is that a press release announces an amazing new paper that overturns the current paradigm (in any direction, could be better or worse than AR4 indicates), well meaning editors such as me suggest it's worth considering, and we're told to wait and see. A first reading by the reasonably well informed Gavin Schmidt suggests that this paper isn't as dramatic as The Heartland Institute blogger says, indeed:
"there are multiple issues here. First off the Forbes article does not represent the paper well at all - S&B only conclude that short term variations are not useful for constraining sensitivity, not that the models have the wrong sensitivity (though this is was Spencer wants to think). But the analysis in S&B is very poor - there are no error bars shown, they appear to be calculating regressions on smoothed data (without taking into account the decrease in degrees of freedom), they use 100 years of data for the models, while using only 10 years of data for observations (with big differences in the noise level), and the 'simple model' used is the same as the one excoriated by Barry Bickmore in a serious of posts. I predict that any re-do of this calculation will not support S&B's conclusions. - gavin][4]
Of course this may all be a conspiracy by Big Science to hide The Truth that Spencer and The Heartland Institute have Revealed, but best to wait for more informed analysis. . dave souza, talk 17:10, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

For a moment I thought you were talking about the Mann hockey stick paper, how silly of me. Arzel (talk) 17:45, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

This Wikipedia:The Truth? 99.181.135.85 (talk) 05:44, 30 July 2011 (UTC)

(reply to earlier non-indented comment above)

My understanding is that it is common practice for legitimate academic journals to charge submission fees. Often, these fees are paid for by the author's university rather than the author. A submission fee doesn't imply that the paper is self-published. ~Amatulić (talk) 17:31, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

Almost of my publications are in journals that require subscriptions or fees to purchase the article, but they are mostly in INFORMS journals. The only ones that havn't are WSC proceedings papers. A submission fee, in my experience, implies a higher likelyhood of a high quaility journal. Arzel (talk) 17:42, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

The classical model for science publishing is "reader pays", i.e. it relies on the subscription price for the journal (or, more recently, fees for access to individual articles). New open access journals instead charge a fee to the author. Open access journals are a mixed bag - the best ones are quite good (e.g. the Public Library of Science journals), but in the land grab part for the new market a lot of very questionable journals were created as well. Decent open access journals have a proper peer review process, and papers in them are certainly not self-published. I don't know what quails have to do with submission fees, but I've never been charged fees for the submission of a manuscript. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:00, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

I'm the guy who asked the question, and my wife (a publishing scientist) says Amatulic is correct and fact there was a fee to publish Dr Spencer's does not all by itself lessen the paper's merit. Or if you accept Arzel's claim - which I don't - fact there was a fee doesn't increase it either. So this is a moot issue and I'm sorry I brought it up. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:57, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

A side comment re "self-published": I believe the criterion is not whether the author has contributed to the cost of publication, but whether the publication is subject to an editorial process. The nature and quality of the latter bear on the question of reliability, as discussed above. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:38, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

I'm asking all parties to take a step back and remember that this topic, and this article in particular, are subject to some pretty stiff general sanctions. Please read, or read again, the description of the sanctions. Henceforth ensure that all of your comments and edits here and elsewhere conform to the spirit and the letter of the sanctions. --TS 23:08, 29 July 2011 (UTC)

National Post, Investor's Business Daily and Grist have all mentioned Spencer's paper. I'm not sure if any of these sources is considered reliable for wikipedia articles, but I thought I'd post the links just in case. 74.98.46.59 (talk) 19:16, 30 July 2011 (UTC)

And here is one blogger's collection of some preliminary responses from various climate scientists.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:31, 30 July 2011 (UTC)

ArbCom did not accept my FoF in the CC case, which can now be literally quoted from the sources given by NewsAndEventsGuy and the IP:

This case is an excellent example of how the right-wing climate disinformation media machine works. Roy Spencer, one of the handful of publishing climate scientist ideologues, gets his work into an obscure journal. Then James Taylor, an operative for a fossil fuel front group, claims it is "very important" on Forbes.com, a media website owned by a Republican billionaire. The Forbes blog post was redistributed by Yahoo! News, giving the headline "New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism" a further veneer of respectability, even though the full post is laughably hyperbolic, using "alarmist" or "alarmism" 15 times in nine paragraphs.

Count Iblis (talk) 14:52, 31 July 2011 (UTC)

The University of Alabama has issued this press release concerning the study. I don't know if this would count as a primary source or a secondary source, but it could be cited in article. 72.77.62.228 (talk) 19:22, 31 July 2011 (UTC)

Have you followed the discussion above? In particular NewsAndEventsGuy's link - preliminary responses from various climate scientists. The paper is the primary source, it is published in a 2 year old journal not directly related to climate science. Roy Spencer's new paper disagrees with results published in the most august journals of science. That alone would be enough for many on wikipedia to dismiss it out of hand however for me that is not quite sufficient. On such a contentious issue it seems worth bothering to find out why Spencer and Braswell reach a different conclusion to others. NEAG's and dave sousa's links above help and at least the comparison with climate models seems invalid (why results for only 8 models when other agree better with the results and why not compare 10 year periods with 10 year periods?). The press releases articles stemming from it are quite ridiculous. Personally I'm just getting to an understanding of what the paper claims, it's probably giving far to much focus to it but I'd rather be certain I'm not blinkered....btw, is it WP:OR to carefully read and try to in the light of other information understand a source?--IanOfNorwich (talk) 20:31, 31 July 2011 (UTC)

No, it is not OR at all; it is an essential part of evaluating a source for reliability. Viriditas (talk) 11:11, 1 August 2011 (UTC)

This is a key NASA finding. It really calls in to question the "settled" science. Hide the decline? Shadow Shine (talk) 06:33, 5 August 2011 (UTC)

It's not a NASA finding, it's a muddled paper by someone with a long track record of errors. . dave souza, talk 14:22, 5 August 2011 (UTC)

Shadow Shine's only contributions to Wikipedia are the above comment and to create a default user page. His name is even very similar to User:Windowshiner who likewise has only made two almost identical edits. I assume both to be scibaby.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 23:14, 5 August 2011 (UTC)

Also User:Shadowback, User:Shadowimages, and User:Walk in the Shadows, so Scibaby may have exhausted all the possible usernames you can form with "shadow". Count Iblis (talk) 23:44, 5 August 2011 (UTC)

It is interesting to compare the response to the Spencer paper which is 11 years of total globe coverage with this [5] paper which was similarly based on radiation measurements from the earth by satellite but this time three months of data from one part of the Pacific. The second was proclaimed as "unequivocal proof", the first is being dismissed. But this is only the first of a stack of papers coming out: CERN, Harde, Salby, and a couple others I forget the names. 88.104.207.84 (talk) 00:27, 6 August 2011 (UTC)

Spencer's paper is being dismissed not because it lacks data, but because Spencer has a certain lack of credibility in processing his data. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:49, 6 August 2011 (UTC)

Spencer creates the UAH satellite temperature record, which everyone uses. And no one has ever had to correct an IPCC report, have they? Kauffner (talk) 01:27, 6 August 2011 (UTC)

It is interesting, since this NASA study differs from the previous NASA study by Hansen. James Hansen has advanced an alternative view of global warming wherein he argues the 0.74±0.18°C rise in average global temperatures over the last 100 years has been driven mainly by greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide (such as methane).Shadow Shine (talk) 05:53, 6 August 2011 (UTC)

First, the Spencer paper is not a NASA study. Spencer abuses some raw NASA data, but that no more makes it a NASA study than me using some of the same words as the Bible making this statement a commandement from God. And secondly, no, Hansen has not advanced that view, although his paper has been widely mischaracterised. What Hansen has pointed out is that a significant amount of warming is caused by anthropogenic effects other than CO2 (mainly other Greenhouse gases and black soot), and that in the short term, the net contribution of burning fossil fuels has been somewhat masked by the sulphate emissions also connected with it. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 06:05, 6 August 2011 (UTC)

It is interesting to compare the Spencer paper with the one 88.104.207.84 mentions. The Spencer paper is looking at the time lag between temperature anomolies and radiative flux anomolies. That is the degree to which increases in energy loss at the top of the atmosphere lags increases in temperature. He considered 11 years of satellite data against 100 years of model output. In both cases he looked at the lead/lag for 18 months before and after. The problem with that, as demonstrated here, is that how well the model data matches the measurements depends on the period chosen - it varies significantly depending which 11 year period of model output you choose. The different shapes are due to how heat is being lost from/gained by the atmosphere and upper oceans - by conduction to/from deep oceans or radiation to/from space. Because different effects will drive the temperature changes in different 11 year periods (solar variation and ENSO both vary on this kind of time scale) you would expect to see different patterns of radiatative flux vs temperature lag/lead over different 11 year periods. Which is what is seen in the models. That the average pattern over 100 years of models doesn't match one 11 year period of data is not remarkable. The study indicated by 88.104.207.84 was, according to the BBC article, looking at how much light in particular wavelength band/s was getting through the atmosphere. CO2 will absorb specific 'colours' of infrared light. They were studying the change in the amount of that absorption from one time to another. In this case the super-annual variation is exactly what they wanted to know.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 09:34, 6 August 2011 (UTC)

Other climate researchers have not been able to reproduce the results. Until that changes, further discussion is an inappropriate debate about the issue rather than a friendly dialogue about improving the article. I vote for deletion or archiving of this thread.

I don't see that as necessary. Some contributors (or would be contributors) seem to think that this page is 'run by' editors who want to suppress the 'truth'. I don't think that is the case but (unless we want to encourage such editors to act anti-socialy) we have to ensure we do not act as if we are trying to suppress any line of discussion. I know that we are not here for a general discussion of the topic, however, we do need to reach a consensus on the reliability of sources. Which involves considering what the sources are saying. While differences of opinion remain we should continue to discuss open-mindedly. I'm willing to WP:AGF on the part of the IP contributor and while I don't think the comparison he made is valid for the reasons I outline above, the comparison he made was rational and deserved a response.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 16:18, 6 August 2011 (UTC)

But that's just it... "reach(ing) a consensus on the reliability of sources [ ] involves considering what the sources are saying." Other climatologists only know part of what Spencer is saying, and they can't duplicate those results because what Spencer said about methodology was too muddled. If other climatologists don't know what Dr Spencer claims to be saying, no amount of discussion on this Talk page will figure it out. In such a context, there is only one possible conversation here: lobbing personal opinion back and forth. Such a conversation is not about improving the article.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 21:20, 6 August 2011 (UTC)

You need to view it from a neutral point. To the IP contributor, I assume, his prior understanding is that the "other climatologists" are as you view Spencer to be. Yes, there are more "other climatologists" but if we start that game we're back to listing people rather than looking at the facts. It is, I believe, harder to understand what Spencer is saying because there are problems with what he says but to conclude that without looking at what he says is dangerous. With the help of the links you and dave souza listed, I think I do have a reasonable understanding of what Spencer is trying to say. Where there are flaws in my understanding, which would lead to a different version of the article, hopefully other contributors will set me right. We should be trying to gain a shared understanding of the sources rather than "lobbing personal opinion back and forth". There are times when an editor may demonstrate they have no interest in reaching such a shared understanding (eg scibaby) but otherwise I will assume good faith.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 09:08, 7 August 2011 (UTC)

Ian, if you have to work to fill in gaps in what you think is being said, isn't that original research?

I did read the paper. Usually, even if I lack scientific expertise to follow something I can understand what's said well enough to look stuff up and follow along in detail. I couldn't do that with this paper, so I tend to believe the folks at RealClimate who say they require clarification of his methodology before they can attempt to duplicate results.

If anyone here has sufficient technical expertise to be certain they've spotted the ambiguities and know the right interpretation, even though the RealClimate editor claims he can not, then I suggest that person write a freelance article for profit at Discover or Scientific American, but beware of the lemon juice factor.

In my opinion, this paper requires further discussion in the peer reviewed literature before it merits further discussion. WP:Fringe_theories#Peer_reviewed_sources NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:47, 7 August 2011 (UTC)

No, trying to understand a source however opaque should not be considered original research. Yes, the paper is hard to follow but so are some with valid results. My understanding of the realclimate article (which I've now read thrice) is that they can reproduce S & B's results but using the same method on other climate models shows a much better match between measured and model data and a 'better' method (ie looking at the spread of 10 year periods individually) some 10 year model periods of some models look very much like the 10/11 years of real world data. Figure (a) in the realclimate piece is essentially a replication of S & B's central 'result' their figure 3(a). I don't claim certainty on anything and in this case I don't happen to be disagreeing with anything in the realclimate piece (though I do have a few questions about it). I do assert my right to discus the meaning and reliability of sources with other editors.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:06, 7 August 2011 (UTC)

This is a valid NASA study, with key conclusions reported in a peer reviewed journal. This should be afforded some mention in this article. 24.205.93.193 (talk) 03:23, 8 August 2011 (UTC)

And your source for this statement is where? I think this has been addressed multiple times above and that this report just uses NASA data and isn't a NASA study. ^Khukri 07:08, 8 August 2011 (UTC)

Sigh, 24.205.93.193 is most likely User:Scibaby again - reverse DNS lookup on the IP shows it's a charter communications customer as are many of the IP ranges he uses, see Wikipedia:Long-term_abuse/Scibaby. This is the kind of nonsense with clearly no interest in reaching any kind of understanding that I would delete rather than engage with.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 08:47, 8 August 2011 (UTC)

Yes, we have already covered that it is not "a NASA paper", that any single paper is quite unlikely to upset the receveived opinion, that Spencer is not entirely credible because of his past errors, that Forbes is not a scientific journal, etc., etc. Is there any point here that really needs discussion? I think we have consensus that the Spencer paper does not warrant special mention, so is it time to be done with this? - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:58, 8 August 2011 (UTC)

Some aggressive archiving

• See earlier discussion archived here. --TS 00:29, 14 August 2011 (UTC)

The page got fat again. I've removed the following dormant sections to archive for the stated reasons:

• Biased towards science-based presentation? | Yes, this is an article about a scientific phenomenon.
• Natural disasters | consensus to exclude image
• Use of the term uncertainty in the lede | rather old
• What did IPCC actually say about likely temp rise?| Rather old except for myth-based query about cooling trend at the end
• Direct temperature measurement | very old.

I have also removed a discussion section started and maintained by an identified, now blocked, sock puppet. I did not archive it.

The result is to halve the size of this very large discussion page, which I hope will make life easier for everybody without curtailing any discussion.

I take care to avoid mistakes, but I'm human and I'm not in charge. Please do restore potentially fruitful ongoing discussions I may have inadvertently closed. --TS 00:22, 14 August 2011 (UTC)

Californian views on GW

New content has been added about a public opinion survey in California. I don't have any problem with the veracity of it but I'm not sure that given the length of the article content on just California makes sense. We have, in the past, excluded discussions of some regional effects of GW due to the length of article that would be created if all area's were discussed with equal weight so the same (at least) should apply to public opion surveys.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:46, 2 August 2011 (UTC)

I nearly reverted it as a pointless, undiscussed edit by an anonymous user. Another "look at at what I found" edit by someone who hasn't comprehended the overall structure and balance of the article. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:57, 2 August 2011 (UTC)

Uh, it wasn't an IP poster, J, but a brand spanking new editor who is just getting up to speed. Personally I was happy they cared enough to try and hope they keep re-reading the welcome pages and how-to wiki pages as they go through their learning curve.

IMO the poster missed the main point of the survey, but I agree with the poster that something about it merits reporting. Specifically, it appears that the higher interest in CA (compared to the US at large) may be partly due to forceful leadership by respected members of both major parties. That merits reporting IMO, and if others agree the text will need appropriate editing to focus on that aspect. [6] NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:19, 3 August 2011 (UTC)

I agree that it would be nice to make something useful of it but still too much detail for this article, I fear. Can it go in Climate_change_policy_of_the_United_States#California?

As others think about that suggestion, note that traffic on the other article is about twenty hits per day and traffic here is around 10,000. From a sociological or political science perspective, what happens in the US when there is leadership from respected members of both parties is not a small sociological factoid, and from a climate science perspective should carry global interest. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:06, 3 August 2011 (UTC)

Thanks for taking a look at my edits. If you think it is better suited on the Climate_change_policy_of_the_United_States#California page, I'm happy to place it in there and remove it from this page. I'm still getting the hang of Wikipedia, so if you have suggestions on other points that should be inlcluded, I'm open to suggestions. LMK what you all think about where this should be placed. --MrsEcoGreen (talk) 18:57, 3 August 2011 (UTC)

• As often happens, I'm not sure which article is best suited to using this article by Raymond S. Bradley as a source, but as NewsAndEventsGuy notes, these things have a global impact. . dave souza, talk 21:00, 3 August 2011 (UTC)

I guess that the whole politics and public opinion sections would benefit from some work, and some information explaining the reason for the difference in views between the US public vs US scientists and most of the rest of the world, and a sentence could highlight the differences in California and the reasons for them. There are plenty of sources, in general, Merchants of Doubt for a start, (though personally I don't want to go through it again it somehow managed to bore and anger me at the same time) and those 2 studies into scientific opinion on climate change...--IanOfNorwich (talk) 09:37, 4 August 2011 (UTC)

This article will not change the minds of climate skeptics. It should focus on presenting the facts. There is a separate article on the controversy. Rick Norwood (talk) 13:26, 4 August 2011 (UTC)

It's not meant to change the minds of anyone other than by educating readers about significant views, giving each due weight. As a parent article this includes mention of the political controversy in the Views on global warming section, that section needs improvement but of course this is a bit of a minefield. In my view there's too much on opinion polls and not enough on political efforts to cope with the science or to reject it on a commercial or ideological basis. Will have a go sometime if I can overcome my slothfulness in this warm weather ;-/ . . dave souza, talk 14:28, 4 August 2011 (UTC)

There is no warm weather. Warm weather is a liberal lie. It's actually very cool today. Rick Norwood (talk) 14:35, 4 August 2011 (UTC)

We do have to be careful to avoid campaigning or POV pushing. The aim of the article shouldn't be to persuade or in that sense 'change the minds' of anybody. It should enhance the understanding that readers have of global warming (and part of that is having the information needed to decide what is happening). If the article literally doesn't change anyones mind in that they have exactly the same views, beliefs and opinions after reading it then both their reading and our editing were a waste of time. One aspect of global warming is what appears to be an attempt to manipulate public opinion in a way that I would have found hard to credit before I began looking into the topic, and as an important aspect it should be documented as best we can.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:47, 4 August 2011 (UTC)

Temperature Changes - Possible changes

We've got a [citation needed] tag that's been there for ages. It is on "The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface." It's one of those statements that while probably more or less true is practically impossible to find a citation for probably because it's a bit woolly. That sentence could be lost and worked into "Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005." as "The Earth's average surface temperature, expressed as a linear trend, rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005." Which is a bit of a sledgehammer of a sentence if you are not into this stuff already. Any ideas?

Another thing I'd like see in the temperature changes section would be at least a mention of stratospheric temperatures (which are falling as expected (Karl et al. 2006)). Though this might be difficult without bamboozling new readers. I do think it is important because the it's a fairly intuitive effect of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which is recorded and not easily explained by, for example, solar variation driving tropospheric warming.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 09:06, 3 August 2011 (UTC)

The problem I have with "The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface" is that it seems to suggest there are others. If I understand the following sources correctly, that is incorrect.

Global warming refers to the gradual increase, observed or projected, in global surface temperature, as one of the consequences of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic emissions. From Glossary of IPCC AR4 WGiii

Within scientific journals, this is still how the two terms are used. Global warming refers to surface temperature increases, while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas amounts will affect.

• * *

But temperature change itself isn't the most severe effect of changing climate. Changes to precipitation patterns and sea level are likely to have much greater human impact than the higher temperatures alone. For this reason, scientific research on climate change encompasses far more than surface temperature change. So "global climate change" is the more scientifically accurate term. Like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we've chosen to emphasize global climate change on this website, and not global warming." From NASA essay "What's in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change"

Based on those citations, I think the sentence with the tag should go away.

The stratosphere point is a good point for refuting the claim that surface temp increases are just from the sun, but I don't think that is the goal of the temp change section, and if refutation of one discredited theory creeps in, why not refutations of many? See [7]NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:13, 3 August 2011 (UTC)

Scibaby

Most of the discussion on this page in the last few days has been the result of Scibaby's antics. The following were all Scibaby accounts:

• HavBlu
• 24.205.93.193
• Shadow Shine
• Windowshiner

We need to look at the user's contribs before responding and get him checkusered if it looks a likely sock. Will at least make it harder for him.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 18:53, 10 August 2011 (UTC)

Please consider Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Climate_change#Sockpuppetry_in_the_Climate_Change_topic_area before doing this. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 18:39, 12 August 2011 (UTC)

Duly considered. That doesn't preclude us from looking at an editors contributions and making a judgment as to whether, in the balance of probability, that user is Scibaby. If we suspect they are we should get them checkusered and note our suspicions on the talk page (perhaps we need a standard form of words - "We suspect you are Scibaby, sorry if you aren'tt we'll get back to you hope you understand" kind of thing). Once the checkuser is in we should either delete the comments or WP:AGF as appropriate. We certainly shouldn't just revert edits on the assumption that they are Scibaby and leave it at that but neither should we waste time assuming good faith with Scibaby (unless he'd like to reform, of course).--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:06, 12 August 2011 (UTC)

The editor appears to have been blocked as a confirmed sock. I've removed the section he started and have not archived it. --TS 00:02, 14 August 2011 (UTC)

A small question: even if a section is totally pointless itself, is it not useful to be able to show that the record of past discussions is complete? Or is it adequate to rely on the page history? - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 18:13, 14 August 2011 (UTC)

Nope. See Wikipedia:Banning_policy#Bans_apply_to_all_editing.2C_good_or_bad as well as WP:DENY, but even if that did not exist, we don't need pages and pages of records of Scibaby causing problems. The only thing that would be "proved" by such a record is that Scibaby is a problem, and that is already known. Finally, there is always a record in the history. Our archives are merely for convenience. KillerChihuahua^?!?Advice 21:58, 14 August 2011 (UTC)

Resource via Science News

Airborne particles help explain why temperatures rose less last decade by Alexandra Witze August 13th, 2011; Vol.180 #4 (p. 5) ... Note title in print is different: "Ocean currents and sulfur haze deliver global warming hiatus: but increasing temperatures remain in long-term forecast" pages 5 & 6. (some content is different too)

Online excerpt...

Along with sulfur emitted by coal-burning power plants, volcanic particles spewed high in the atmosphere reduced the amount of global warming otherwise expected during the 2000s, a new study finds. Relatively small volcanic eruptions last decade sent sulfur high enough in the atmosphere to reflect sunlight and help stall a rising global temperature trend. The work, reported online July 21 in Science, suggests it doesn’t take a colossal eruption for volcanoes to have a discernible influence on climate. “If you don’t include these stratospheric aerosols in the models, you’re going to overestimate how much the temperature should have increased over the past decade,” says team member John Daniel, an atmospheric physicist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colo. Scientists had known that aerosols cool the planet, and that big eruptions spew lots of aerosols up high. But nobody had calculated how smaller recent eruptions might affect climate, and many had assumed that stratospheric aerosols from volcanoes dropped essentially to zero after particles from the 1991 eruption of the Philippines’ Mt. Pinatubo fell out of the atmosphere. Daniel and his colleagues, led by recently retired NOAA atmospheric scientist Susan Solomon, looked at aerosol measurements taken from satellites and from the Mauna Loa observing station in Hawaii. The researchers traced aerosols to several small eruptions, including those of Soufrière Hills in Montserrat and Tavurvur in Papua New Guinea, both in 2006. “This gives us a clearer picture of the effects of smaller volcanic eruptions,” says Alan Robock, an atmospheric scientist at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J. ... Using computer models, the researchers calculated that aerosols from all sources cooled the planet by 0.1 watts per square meter during the 2000s. In comparison, the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide warmed things over that span by 0.28 watts per square meter. The factors that cause such warming and cooling effects are known as forcings. The new work “again points out that if we actually do have all the forcings correct, then our ability to reproduce and anticipate the resulting climate responses is actually very good,” says Caspar Ammann, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. Daniel’s paper ties into recent work by Robert Kaufmann of Boston University and his colleagues (SN: 7/30/11, p. 17). That group statistically analyzed why global temperatures didn’t rise as much as expected between 1998 and 2008, and concluded that sulfur from coal-burning power plants in Asia was mainly to blame. The NOAA work “gives additional support to the conclusion that increased sulfur emissions can explain the recent hiatus in warming,” Kaufmann says.

97.87.29.188 (talk) 20:42, 17 August 2011 (UTC) 97.87.29.188 (talk) 21:17, 17 August 2011 (UTC)

• S. Solomon et al. The persistently variable “background” stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change. Science. Published online July 21, 2011. doi:10.1126/science.1206027.
• R.K. Kaufmann et al. Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Published July 19, 2011. doi:10.1073/pnas.1102467108.

with "suggested reading":

• N. Drake. Sulfur stalls surface temperature rise. Science News. Vol. 180, July 30, 2011, p. 17.
• S. Perkins. Hazy changes on high. Science News Online. August 14, 2009.

An "in print" difference, the conclusion ... "Yet even with such cooling influences, scientists say, global warming will win in the end. Eventually the thickening blanket of greenhouse gases will start global temperatures rocketing up again." 97.87.29.188 (talk) 21:17, 17 August 2011 (UTC) Also see Category:Climate feedbacks and Category:Climate forcing 97.87.29.188 (talk) 21:27, 17 August 2011 (UTC)

More from "in print" version, preceeding the conclusion ...

Solomon and Kaufmann both looked at global surface temperatures, which includes data from land and sea. but most of the extra greenhouse warming goes into the ocean, which is why a third team recently studied the upper layers of the ocean's upper 700 meters rose over the last two decades of the 20th century before flattening out in 2003. Caroline Katsman and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute in De Bilt used a computer model to proble natural influences on ocean temperatures, such as El Niño (which releases hear from oceans back into the atmosphere) and deep circulation in the North Atlantic (which can bury heat at greater depths). The model suggested that these two factors happed to combine starting in 2003, keeeping excess heat out of the upper ocean. Much of that energy has been released back into space, the team found, while another chunk was tucked away deeper than 700 meters.

97.87.29.188 (talk) 21:47, 17 August 2011 (UTC)

Here is one of them ... Sulfur stalls surface temperature rise; Findings explain decade without warming by Nadia Drake July 30th, 2011; Vol.180 #3 (p. 17) Science News online. 99.181.138.215 (talk) 03:05, 18 August 2011 (UTC)