2012 Hong Kong Chief Executive election

Hong Kong Chief Executive election, 2012

25 March 2012

Nominee Albert Ho Henry Tang Leung Chun-ying Party Democratic Nonpartisan Nonpartisan Alliance Pan-democracy Pro-Beijing Pro-Beijing

Incumbent Chief Executive Sir Donald Tsang Nonpartisan

An election will be held on 25 March 2012 to select the Chief Executive of Hong Kong. The incumbent Chief Executive Donald Tsang is barred from seeking a third term pursuant to the Basic Law of Hong Kong. The fourth Chief Executive term will begin on 1 July 2012. The CE will be elected by a 1200-member Election Committee (EC).

The pro-democracy camp held a primary election where Albert Ho of the Democratic Party won against Frederick Fung. Although it is widely expected that a pro-Beijing candidate will win in a landslide, a number of controversies erupted in the territory involving the pro-establishment candidates even before the opening of nominations. Firstly, front-runner Henry Tang faced revelations that he had been unfaithful to his wife; he admitted his infidelities and his wife came out to "stand by her man".

The notably bitter campaign has been marked by further scandals, dirty tactics and smears; both Henry Tang and his main rival, Leung Chun-ying, suffered assaults upon their integrity and credibility. Once the nomination period officially opened, Tang became embroiled in a scandal involving alleged illegal structures at a property owned by him and/or his wife. Tang disclaimed knowledge of the full extent of the illegal constructions, while his wife claimed responsibility for them. As a result of his handling, his public popularity plummeted. His integrity also came into question, and he faced calls from both opposition and pro-establishment camps to abandon his campaign. Furthermore, Tang faced revelations of a child born out of wedlock although he refused to comment.

Trailing his opponent in public opinion polls by around 20 percentage points after the illegal buildings controversy, Tang hit back during a televised debate, in which he alleged Leung wished to restrict freedom of speech by shortening the licence renewal term for Commercial Radio and that Leung suggested the government would have to deploy the anti-riot police against Article 23 protesters. While Leung's popularity slipped by five percentage points as a result of the allegations, several former government officials and the Executive Council criticised Tang for breach of protocol. In the final week before the election, the media reported that Beijing had begun rallying for Leung.

Candidates with interests to run

Pro-Beijing

The Convenor of the Executive Council Leung Chun-ying (C. Y. Leung) announced his plan to run on 9 September and resigned from his post in the government in mid September 2011. Chief Secretary Henry Tang, considered the first choice of Beijing, resigned from government in late September 2011. Besides Tang and Leung, Rita Fan and Regina Ip also said they were considering running for the post, but dropped out on 15 December. Fan lost a lot of public support and respect by taking six months to consider her candidacy. After much prevarication-induced speculation, Fan announced that she would not participate because her age and health would become concerns into the CE term; and she endorsed Henry Tang. However, many believe that the real reason was pressure from Beijing which led to her final decision.

However, after Henry Tang became embroiled in an unauthorised building works scandal, the field of potential pro-establishment candidates once again opened up: Regina Ip re-announced her interest in running for the post on 20 February; at the same time, LegCo president Jasper Tsang also said he was "seriously considering" running for the post. In addition to Rita Fan, Financial Secretary John Tsang and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, businessman Victor Fung and Joseph Yam were touted by pundits as possible candidates. Tsang's final decision not to stand, after ten days of deliberations, was influenced by concerns about the intrusion of party politics into the chief executive race, and the effect of his candidature (and potential success in getting elected) for the DAB in the forthcoming Legislative Council elections in September. Ip failed to receive enough nominations before the deadline and thus did not qualify to stand for the election.

• 
  Former Chief Secretary Henry Tang Ying-yen
• 
  Leung Chun-ying, former convenor of the Executive Council
• 
  Former President of the Legislative Council Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai
• 
  Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, Legislative Council member Chairman of New People's Party, former Secretary for Security
• 
  Jasper Tsang Yok-sing President of the Legislative Council, Former Chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong

Pro-democracy

Alan Leong who contested the CE election last time expressed an interest in standing again but later announced that the Civic Party would not join the election. Albert Ho, the chairman of the Democratic Party decided to run for the post on 4 October 2011. Frederick Fung also expressed his interest in running for the post, and officially announced his decision to participate in the election on 8 December 2011. After winning over 150 seats in the Election Committee subsector elections, the democrats conducted a primary election, in which all Hong Kong permanent residents were eligible to vote, on 8 January 2012 to decide on a unified candidate for the pro-democracy camp. Albert Ho won.

• 
  Legislative Council Member Albert Ho Chun-yan, Chairman of Democratic Party
• 
  Legislative Council Member Frederick Fung Kin-kee, member of the Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood.
• 
  Legislative Council Member Alan Leong Kah-kit, Chairman of the Civic Party.

Non-party

Besides members of the pro-Beijing and pro-democracy camp, there are a few other non party affiliates with interest to run for the post. Just like being in the pro-democracy camp, being a nonpartisan is generally considered having very few or no chance at all in winning. Some of them include:

• Kan Kit-hung (簡傑鴻) – decided to run on 26 January.

• Yu Wing-yin (余永賢), consultant of the Hong Kong Applied Science and Technology Research Institute, decided to run for the election on 2 February. Yu was professor of Bielefeld University in Germany, economist of Hong Kong Trade Development Council, and consultant of UNESCO. On 29 February 2012, he announced his withdrawal because of insufficient nominations.

• Wu Sai-tsuen (胡世全), a former DAB member, announced he would run on 13 February, the day before the nomination period starts.

• Roger Chan Yuet-tung (陳乙東) decided to run on 26 February. He is a fifth-time CE election participant but has never obtained enough nominations in all previous elections.

"Two-horse race"

Tang is known for being lazy and unintelligent; Leung is a surveyor with business acumen but who appears cold and brutal. Hence, the Chief Executive election is dubbed the contest between "the wolf" and "the pig". Henry Tang's status as the front-runner among those that mattered stems from the fact Tang's father, who originates from Jiangsu, not Guangdong province, is closely connected to a faction close to Jiang Zemin. In early 2012, it emerged that support for Tang may have been played up by people close to Liao Hui, director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office from 1997 to 2000, to the detriment of Leung, who is an equally acceptable candidate to top leaders. Leung's patriotism and his contributions to Hong Kong – including his involvement in the drafting Hong Kong's Basic Law – are indeed appreciated, although he remains distrusted by business magnates. Albert Ho, leader of the Democratic Party, is not expected to receive support of any members of the Election Committee apart from those who were popularly-elected, and is thus a token candidate in the "small-circle election". Tsang Yok-sing's exit from the forefront on 27 February reaffirmed the two-horse race that Beijing had endorsed.

Top Chinese leaders have stipulated that the next CE would have to be patriotic in the eyes of both Beijing and Hong Kong, have governing and management skills, and command wide public acceptance. Li Jianguo, vice-chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, informed local NPC deputies in January 2012 that Leung and Tang were both "acceptable" to Beijing as chief executive candidates, adding that he hoped to see a fair fight in the race. Speaking at a press conference after the close of the fifth plenary session of the 11th National People's Congress, premier Wen Jiabao reiterated the government's position.

"I believe that as long as the principle of openness, justice and fairness is observed and relevant legal procedures are complied with, Hong Kong will elect a chief executive who enjoys the support of the vast majority of Hong Kong people"
Wen Jiabao, 14 March 2012

Analysts say the bitter fight between the two candidates has upset the political consensus Beijing has sought to cultivate, and caused the leaders embarrassment. Willy Lam of the Jamestown Foundation said: “Beijing felt it has lost face because the two people they have groomed for so long have failed to stand up to the test.” Pundit Michael DeGolyer observed that reformists strongly back Leung, and says the contest has implications for the balance of power between reformist vs conservatives in the rest of China.

Nominations

The nomination period runs from 14 to 29 February.

Albert Ho was the first declared candidate to submit his nomination, having secured 184 votes (including his own) from Election Committee members. He failed to capture 21 out of all the known Pan-democrat votes.

Henry Tang was the second to submit his nomination; he did so earlier than planned on 20 February after having secured 379 nominations, days after his implication in an illegal structure scandal and on the day the press published allegations of yet another of his extra-marital liaisons. Tang's nominees included most of the major local property magnates: Li Ka-shing, Lee Shau-kee of Henderson Land Development, New World Development's Henry Cheng and Sun Hung Kai Properties' Raymond and Thomas Kwok, Chinese Estates Holdings chairman Joseph Lau, Robert Ng of Sino Group, Hopewell Holdings chairman Gordon Wu; Tang is also endorsed by Heung Yee Kuk chairman Lau Wong-fat and film director Stephen Chow.

Tang's early nomination was seen by some pundits as a strategic move to lock in his gains early; others suggest that it was a pre-emptive move ahead of pronouncements from Beijing.

"Inevitably, [Tang's] refusal to quit has put Beijing in a difficult position as signs of unwavering support will be taken as evidence that the election has a pre-determined winner. Worse, it risks provoking the public further and triggering a crisis if he is allowed to govern with his integrity in shreds."

— Leader, South China Morning Post, 22 February 2012

According to an analysis by the South China Morning Post, support for Tang amongst 12 major property conglomerates accounting for at least 64 seats on the Election Committee was by no means unequivocal: they pledged 38 of these votes to Tang. Three had given more than half of their nominations to Tang, while four gave only half; Wharf Holdings and Swire gave only their chairmen's votes to Tang.

CY Leung submitted his candidature on 23 February; he received 293 nominations. Leung obtained nominations from 57 of the 60 representatives from the agriculture and fisheries sub-sector, 29 nominations from the labour sub-sector, 25 from the engineering, architectural, surveying and planning sub-sectors, and 12 from the finance and financial services sub-sectors. He also secured 20 nominations from Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions and about 30 from members of the DAB. Heavyweights who support Leung included former executive councillor Arthur Li, former chairman of Sun Hung Kai Properties Walter Kwok, Shui On Group chairman Vincent Lo and former Broadcasting Authority chairman Daniel Fung. Leung admitted that it was difficult securing the prerequisite 150 votes to enter the race; The Standard cited a source saying that Leung had secured those nominations through efforts of officials of the Central Government Liaison office.

Pundits reckon Tang lost around 100 votes to Leung as a result of Tang's scandals. As Tang enjoys an advantage over Leung in the commercial sectors and major property developers, Leung pledged to serve "all the seven million people in Hong Kong." The DAB and a number of others hinted that they were holding back on their nominations to allow Jasper Tsang to enter the fray should he so wish.

Election debate and forum

Election debate

A televised election debate was jointly organised by 11 mass media organisations at RTHK's Broadcasting House in Kowloon Tong on 16 March 2012. 150 guests were randomly invited by the University of Hong Kong and the Lingnan University. During the 2-hour debate, the candidates answered questions raised by the mass media organisations and randomly drawn guest audience, and were allowed to raise questions to other candidates. The hosts were Joseph Tse Chi-fung (謝志峰) of RTHK and Hui Fong-fai (許方輝) of TVB.

Afterwards, public concern was raised about Henry Tang's accusations during the debate that Leung had proposed suppressing freedom of speech by shortening the licence renewal term for Commercial Radio in 2003; Tang also alleged that Leung had said in a "top-level meeting" that the government would have to deploy the anti-riot police and utilise tear gas to handle protests after the massive peaceful demostration on 1 July 2003 opposing the legislation of Hong Kong Basic Law Article 23. Leung denied both claims immediately, adding that the only "top-level meeting" he had attended was the Executive Council. Arthur Li Kwok-cheung stated that he had not heard Leung making such remarks during ExCo meetings.

Albert Ho used the platform to demand Tang and Leung to state their positions on universal suffrage, in particular the abolition of functional constituencies in the Legislative Council, and on vindication of the Tiananmen protests of 1989. However, neither Tang nor Leung responded directly.

Election forum

A televised election forum was held at the Kowloonbay International Trade & Exhibition Centre on 19 March 2012. Unlike the debate, the candidates were not allowed to raise questions to each other and no guests from the public were invited. They answered questions raised by a few randomly selected election committee members as well as those previously collected from the public. The host was Ng Ming-lam (吳明林), who also hosted the debate on political reform between Sir Donald Tsang and Audrey Eu in 2010.

Controversies

Li Ka-shing gaffe

Henry Tang has long been a strong admirer of Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest man, and said in May 2011 that all young citizens should ask themselves why they cannot be more like Li Ka-shing. This caused uproar and criticism.

On 4 August 2011 at the interim results announcement for Hutchison Whampoa, Li endorsed Tang and praised Tang for five full minutes. Then Li let slip and said "You all can be just like me, one-person-one-vote (一人一票)." The media then looked at Li in disbelief, and pointed out that regular citizens do not get one-person-one-vote. Li then tried to laugh it off and said "maybe in 2017 they will have one-person-one-vote to choose the chief executive, I probably just said it a little early."

Henry Tang infidelity

On October 2011 affairs were publicised involving Henry Tang and Shirley Yuen (袁沙妮), Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce CEO and his former administrative assistant, and Elizabeth Chan, Tang's personal assistant in the 1990s; both denied liaisons with him. His wife said in statement to the media that there had been difficult times in their relationship and that he has faults, but that she also appreciated his strengths. According to one media report, the revelations caused Beijing to drop their opposition to Leung standing as a candidate as a safeguard against more scandals involving Tang.

Indecision

In mid October 2011 there were complaints that the Pro-Beijing candidiates had not officially declared to run for Chief Executive. Pan-democrat Emily Lau specifically said Leung Chun-ying and Henry Tang were inviting 10,000 people out to wine and dine on public expenses, and that this was unfair and irresponsible when neither appeared to want to run for chief executive. Rita Fan also flip flopped multiple times. While she wanted to run when she was the most popular, when Tang showed his intention to run, she stepped back and said Tang was an acceptable candidate. However, when the extramarital affair of Henry Tang was exposed, Fan withdrew her support for him.

Baptist University poll scandal

On 14 January 2012 Zhao Xinshu (趙心樹), dean of Hong Kong Baptist University School of Communication, prematurely presented a survey result showing candidate Leung Chun-ying with only a small lead (6.5% points) over Henry Tang out 836 people surveyed. By the time the survey was completed with the 1000 sample, Leung led Tang by a 8.9% point margin. This caused speculations whether the poll was rigged. On 19 January Henry Tang admitted his communications advisor Lucy Chan Wai-yee (陳慧兒) had made a call to the Baptist University prior to the announcement of the unfinished result, but denied that he interfered with the poll.

Zhao Xinshu took on the blame, and explained that the early announcement was to avoid losing media coverage to the Republic of China presidential election. The school denied having any political stance. Zhao resigned from the school dean position, but retained his teaching post. School staff, students and alumni were dissatisfied with the short investigation, which lasted only 10 days involving 16 internal school members. Zhao may face further investigation by the ICAC.

C. Y. Leung conflict of interest allegations

In an exclusive in early 2012, East Week magazine said Leung was one of 10 judges in the 2001 concept planning competition for the West Kowloon Cultural District despite his company acting as a consultant for one of the competitors. Leung had declared on 25 February 2002, that he was in no way interested in the competition, whether in a personal or professional capacity.

Upon questioning following the press report, he reiterated: "There was no business relationship, or conflict of interest. I have already reported the case to the jury committee chairman and government bodies ... One quantity surveyor under a particular professional team asked our company about related comments and information on land prices in West Kowloon. But we did not take any money in return." The contestant in question, Malaysian company LWK & Partners, named DTZ Holdings – Leung's company – as a "consultant" in its competition entry. Leung said that he immediately questioned his staff upon learning about it, and had in fact written an explanatory letter to the jury upon being aware.

As the row continued, the government generated further controversy on 8 February when it issued two statements, one explaining the failure of candidate Leung to declare a possible conflict of interest in the West Kowloon Reclamation Concept Plan Competition, and other that cleared Henry Tang Ying-yen of any conflict of interest relating to his decision to lower wine duties when he was financial secretary. A government spokesman insisted it was impartial in issuing the two statements. However, Asia Sentinel suggested the selective leak of such allegations by the government who then refused to make public all the documents relating to the issue as requested by Leung himself was a smear originating from the Tang camp. Leung said he welcomed full disclosure of all the facts and documents relating to his involvement in the contest, including "minutes of judges' panel meetings." The government said that had written to seek consent from both Leung Chun-ying and the contestant's architects TR Hamzah & Yeang to release information concerning their respective roles in the West Kowloon Reclamation Concept Plan.

Illegal structures at Henry Tang's home

Main article: Henry Tang illegal basement controversy

Media-hired cranes stooping over 5 and 7 York Road – Henry Tang's residence – following revelations of illegal structures there.

"As a man, one needs to have shoulders and as a public officer, one needs to have backbone," – Henry Tang, 13 February 2012 (statement in response to press alleged illegal structures at his properties)

Following media allegations of illegal structures at the Kowloon Tong residence of the leading contender, Tang admitted on 13 February that there was an unauthorised structure at his home at No 5A York Road in the form of a canopy above the garage. He also said that there was already an underground garage at his family's adjacent property (7 York Road) at the time of purchase, which had since been deepened "for storage". He said it was not used as a wine cellar.

On 15 February, Chinese-language newspaper Sharp Daily published a set of floor plans purporting to be of the 2,400-square-foot illegal basement at one of Tang's properties comprising a store room, fitness room, changing room, cinema and wine-tasting room dating from 2003. Tang said the drawing "does not match. [The basement] is basically used for storage." The Buildings Department said that the property was inspected on 22 January 2007, and no unauthorised structures were found. Experts believe that the secret basement standing larger than the footprint of the house was no afterthought: engineers have largely discounted the possibility of building such a large underground structure after completion of the main house. The filed building plan showed foundation piles were driven five metres deep, enough space to harbour at least one storey underground. A media and political circus gathered in York Road as inspectors made a site visit on 16 February: media hired building cranes to gain vantage over the property; Leung Kwok Hung led a protest outside Tang's residence. In a press conference, Tang's wife took responsibility for the illegal basement facility. Tang refused media requests to tour the house. He said: "An illegal structure is an illegal structure. It doesn't matter what the facilities inside are." Tang was widely criticised for hiding behind his wife, and was then under pressure to quit the race.

In a poll conducted on 16 and 17 February by the University of Hong Kong on behalf of the South China Morning Post, 51.3% of those polled said Tang should withdraw. Opposition to Tang was 23.5 percentage points higher one week later. Commentators observed that Tang's self-inflicted damage has embarrassed Beijing and made it lose control of the election process.

Accusation of "black gold politics"

Leung Chun-ying was suspected of being involved with "black gold politics" after the March 2012 issue of East Week reported that his supporter, Lew Mon-hung (劉夢熊), and his compaign officers met with Rural committee members and a Triad member over a dinner at Lau Fau Shan. Attendees from different camps gave different accounts, especially of the appearance of Kwok Wing-hung (郭永鴻), nicknamed "Shanghai Boy", who has known associations with Wo Shing Wo. Denying any personal connections with Leung, however, Kwok claimed he met Henry Tang in Tokyo, Japan in 2002 and held a few photos of him. Tang then lodged a complaint to the police, stating that he felt threatened by Kwok's comments. The case is under ICAC and police investigation.

Alleged protocol breach

Henry Tang's claims during the televised debate on 16 March about what was said during "high-level meetings" set off a storm. During later interviews, he elaborated on the situations where the remarks attributed to Leung Chun-ying were heard. Tang said that the disclosures were made because of the public's right to know, but that the disclosures were impromptu as he was angered by Leung's mention of the sofa in Tang's office allegedly used in Tang's extra-marital affairs.

Five former Exco members stated that they had not heard, or did not remember hearing Leung making such remarks during ExCo meetings. Tang was widely criticised, by pro-establishment figures, for breaching the confidentiality rule: Chairman of the DAB, Tam Yiu-chung, said no-one had the right to breach confidentiality rule of ExeCo, for whatever reason. Regina Ip, responsible for the legislation of Article 23, questioned the accuracy and appropriateness of Tang's disclosures, saying that she had "no recollection" that such a comment was made. She also criticised Tang for breaching the confidentiality rule, even should his claim be true. Former Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong also said Tang should be condemned but "Tang [must] justify the breach based on the principle of public interest" Senior politician and former Secretary of Justice Elsie Leung rebuked Tang, saying: "The CE election should be conducted in a fair, open and just manner ... If the rule is not properly observed and protected, no one will be willing to join the government or say anything during internal meetings in future." Leung added that "running for the CE is not an excuse to breach this important rule. James Tien, whose resignation from the ExCo forced the government to withdraw the Article 23 bill, said that the confidentiality rule should not be overridden by public interest, otherwise "the government should just make all Exco meetings public". Pro-democracy politicians urged the government to go public on the facts because the public had the right to know what went on.

In response to pressure to clarify the principle of confidentiality, the Executive Council issued a statement that any breach of its confidentiality principle may result in punitive and "legal action" against any offender. The statement, unanimously endorsed by all Exco members, said: "[the principle] must be sternly upheld and respected, and should not be violated." The South China Morning Post cites a reliable source that Beijing was "surprised and disappointed" by Tang's violation of a basic principle, and that his chances were over from that moment.

Allegations of C. Y. Leung's Communist Party membership

During the Hong Kong Chief Executive election, 2012, persistent rumours resurfaced of Leung's undeclared membership of the Communist Party of China (CCP). Leung constantly dismissed such claims as ungrounded.

In March 2012, former underground communist Florence Leung (梁慕嫻), launched her memoir My Time in Hong Kong's Underground Communist Party, in which she deduced that CY Leung had to have been a underground communist in order for him to have become the Secretary General of the Basic Law Consultative Committee, according to party protocol. She also cited Leung's vague remarks about the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre as a clue to his membership. According to the South China Morning Post, Leung's campaign office said Leung was "not a Chinese Communist Party member and had never requested or been invited to join the party."

Polling

Date(s) Conducted	Client/Political Organisation	Sample Size	Henry Tang Ying-yen	Leung Chun-ying	Albert Ho Chun-yan	Alan Leong Kah-kit	Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai	Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee	Jasper Tsang Yok-sing	% Lead
2012
16–19 Mar	Cable TV/HKU POP	1,026	22%	39%	11%	During the Election Debate and Forum on 16 and 19 March.				17%
14–17 Mar	Cable TV/HKU POP	1,025	22%	40%	11%					18%
12–15 Mar	Cable TV/HKU POP	1,021	21%	41%	11%					20%
9–13 Mar	Cable TV/HKU POP	1,031	20%	44%	11%					24%
6–11 Mar	Cable TV/HKU POP	1,008	19%	45%	11%					26%
3–8 Mar	Cable TV/HKU POP	1,012	20%	45%	11%					25%
29 Feb – 5 Mar	Cable TV/HKU POP	1,005	19%	51%	11%	After the Nomination Period ended on 29 February.				32%
27 Feb – 3 Mar	Cable TV/HKU POP	1,015	19%	49%	10%	−	−	−	−	30%
27–28 Feb	Cable TV/HKU POP	518	20%	49%	11%	−	−	−	−	29%
27–28 Feb	HKU POP	501	17.1%	51.2%	13.1%	−	−	−	−	34.1%
			14.4%	37.0%	9.8%	−	−	29.4%	−	7.6%
25–27 Feb	HKU POP	500	16.8%	53.7%	12.3%	−	−	−	−	36.9%
			12.0%	33.8%	4.6%	−	−	27.4%	13.9%	6.4%
20–22 Feb	HKU POP	1,006	12.5%	31.2%	6.9%	−	−	27.7%	12.3%	3.5%
			18.5%	51.2%	13.1%	−	−	−	−	32.7%
20–21 Feb	SCMP/HKU POP	506	16.0%	63.9%	−	−	−	−	−	47.9%
13–16 Feb	Apple Daily/HKU POP	1,001	23.7%	48.5%	17.2%	−	−	−	−	24.8%
13–16 Feb	HKU POP	1,007	21.3%	49.0%	10.0%	−	−	−	−	27.7%
6–9 Feb	HKU POP	1,001	26.1%	49.2%	7.3%	−	−	−	−	23.1%
30 Jan – 2 Feb	HKU POP	1,002	27.4%	46.9%	8.0%	−	−	−	−	19.5%
16–19 Jan	HKU POP	1,022	29.7%	42.9%	9.1%	−	−	−	−	13.2%
2011
19–20 Dec	Ming Pao/HKU POP	500	29.7%	41.8%	8.0%	−	−	−	−	12.1%
6–7 Dec	Apple Daily/HKU POP	513	18.2%	34.7%	6.2%	−	−	17.8%	−	16.5%
28 Nov – 1 Dec	SCMP/HKU POP	1,012	23.8%	47.3%	3.7%	−	−	0.2%	−	23.5%
25–28 Oct	Apple Daily/HKU POP	503	9.9%	35.3%	2.7%	11.2%	12.3%	12.6%	−	22.5%
17–19 Oct	Ming Pao/HKU POP	505	18.1%	47.5%	11.1%	−	−	−	−	29.4%
			14%	40.8%	9.3%	−	18.7%	−	−	22.1%
11–12 Oct	SCMP/HKU POP	533	14.0%	29.1%	4.4%	−	19.2%	13.8%	−	15.1%
26–28 Sep	Apple Daily/HKU POP	500	16.3%	20.5%	1.3%	10.0%	24.4%	17.1%	−	3.9%
23–25 Aug	Ming Pao/HKU POP	504	15.1%	14.4%	−	15.1%	34.5%	−	5.1%	19.4%
21–22 Jun	SCMP/HKU POP	512	10.2%	8.3%	−	13.3%	32.9%	9.1%	−	19.6%
16–18 May	Ming Pao/HKU POP	537	10%	6%	−	14%	42%	12%	−	28%
14–15 Jan	Ming Pao/HKU POP	567	28.5%	14.5%	−	27.8%	−	−	−	0.7%
2010
17–24 Nov	Ming Pao/HKU POP	576	43.2%	13.1%	−	25.0%	−	−	−	18.2%
10–12 Aug	Ming Pao/HKU POP	551	31.5%	10.7%	−	24.5%	−	−	−	7.0%
18–19 May	Ming Pao/HKU POP	521	32.9%	16.2%	−	28.0%	−	−	−	8.9%
22–25 Feb	Ming Pao/HKU POP	517	38.2%	13.3%	−	22.0%	−	−	−	6.2%
2009
19–22 Nov	Ming Pao/HKU POP	503	41.9%	14.6%	−	28.1%	−	−	−	13.8%
25–28 Aug	Ming Pao/HKU POP	504	40.7%	8.8%	−	17.5%	−	−	−	23.2%

Elections

Tea leaves, central government and voting intentions

The PRC leadership has repeatedly outwardly expressed their hope to see "a candidate with strong public support elected smoothly." However, it is an open secret that members of the Election Committee will take their voting instructions from Beijing. Many were at a loss as a result of the scandals and mishaps within the pro-establishment camp. Hau Wing-cheong, of the Hong Kong Taoist Association admitted that central government officials did state their preference before the spate of scandals. "But the situation has changed," said Hau. Looking for hints of official backing during the 11th National People's Congress, media interpreted top leaders' support for Leung when Xi Jinping shook hands with Leung supporters, seated in the second row, ahead of Tang supporters seated in the first row. Premier Wen Jiabao's comments were taken by some to indicate a preference for Leung, who was more popular according to opinion polls, although other pundits believed those remarks were neutral.

In the final week before the election, it was reported that Beijing, fearing a deadlock, had thrown its support behind Leung. The South China Morning Post cites a source that central government had informed heads of three Beijing-loyalist newspapers in Hong Kong – Wen Wei Po, Ta Kung Pao and Commercial Daily – in mid March that Leung had won the blessing of the central government. The SCMP noted that the journals, which had been scrupulously giving both candidates equal treatment up to that point, subtly shifted prominence to Leung in their coverage. The SCMP cites other sources that the central government had mobilised to lobby undecided Election Committee members, or those who nominated Tang, to support Leung. More than 40 EC members who had nominated Tang confirmed that they had been approached by the central government's liaison office in Hong Kong to switch their support to Leung. Other EC members had been summonsed to Shenzhen to meet with a state leader, identified as politburo member Liu Yandong, the highest-ranking female politician in the PRC.

The lead article in the South China Morning Post on 21 March urged EC members to "cast their votes responsibly". It said: "Although some may find none of the three contestants is worthy of their support, the temptation to cast a blank vote to force a new round of campaign must be resisted ... Unlike a democratic election, the upcoming ballot is confined to 1,193 people, who were ... charged with a clear mission to choose the city's new leader. It is therefore not just a matter of their personal choice. They are expected to take into account public opinion and vote in the best interests of Hong Kong." The front page of the Ta Kung Pao on 22 March stated that casting a null vote was "not an option", Its editorial extolled the virtues of both candidates, whilst stating that a blank vote would be no different to the politicking of "the [democratic] opposition". The same day, Oriental Daily News reported that Tang's campaign had all but imploded amidst a flurry of activity by political heavyweights and kingmakers. Liaison Office deputy head Li Guikang (黎桂康) was reported to have met the representatives of the five leading business organisations for one and a half hours; they did not reveal the content of their discussions. Andrew Leung and Jeffrey Lam, two people considered to be the 'inner core' of the Tang camp, were "in detention" for one more hour. Anson Chan questioned whether "one country, two systems" was being upheld, since the central government liaison office was "very busy getting everybody to put the vote for CY". Albert Ho suggested that many EC members were feeling the pressure from the Liaison Office, and feared repercussions for not voting for Leung; he also said that press reports of the Liaison Office's whipping was subject of Liaison Office complaints to editors and media bosses.

The Liberal Party declared with two days to go that it was ideologically opposed to Leung, unanimously, and that its EC members would vote freely. Although it had originally nominated Tang, many members could not bring themselves to vote for Tang any more. Chairman Miriam Lau and Selina Chow defended their null vote as "the responsible decision" as they could not with all conscience vote for either candidate; their internal poll of 1,900 people showed 30 percent would cast blank votes, if they had the vote. The pan-democrats reached a consensus that they would not support either of the pro-establishment candidates. They would either vote for Albert Ho, cast a null vote, or abstain from the vote. And should the election go to a second round, pan-democrat EC members would leave the vote en masse in protest against the "small-circle election". The Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions announced that its block of 60 votes would go to Leung.

Mock polls

The Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong set up a mock "civic referendum" for 23 March dubbed 'PopVote 3.23' funded by public donations. The platforms are a 15 physical polling stations, and online voting by Internet and smartphone. POP also set up polls for students at 155 schools in conjunction with the Boys and Girls Association of Hong Kong.

The servers for the on-line voting were receiving in excess of a million hits each second. Organisers of believe hackers were seeking to prevent people from voting, and advised citizens to go to the physical polling stations. Civic Party leader Audrey Eu blamed the attacks on "powerful interests who want to prevent others expressing their views".