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Owen continued travelling westwards over the Coral Sea as a tropical low and made landfall well north of [[Cardwell, Queensland|Cardwell]] early on 10 December. After entering the [[Gulf of Carpentaria]] and reorganizing, Owen reached Category 1 intensity for a second time on 11 December. The storm then completed an [[Anticyclone|anticyclonic loop]] and turned back to the east.
Owen continued travelling westwards over the Coral Sea as a tropical low and made landfall well north of [[Cardwell, Queensland|Cardwell]] early on 10 December. After entering the [[Gulf of Carpentaria]] and reorganizing, Owen reached Category 1 intensity for a second time on 11 December. The storm then completed an [[Anticyclone|anticyclonic loop]] and turned back to the east.

At this time the system started to gradually intensify, reaching the category 3 cyclone in the [[Australian scale|Australian Scale]],at Owen looped, it made landfall near Bing Bong settlement, developing a [[Eye (cyclone)|eyewall]]. After the system made [[Landfall|landfal]]<nowiki/>l, land interaction caused a collapse in the eye and the system deteriorated in appearance.


For the latest official information, see:
For the latest official information, see:

Revision as of 16:06, 14 December 2018

2018–19 Australian region cyclone season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formed28 September 2018
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameOwen
 • Maximum winds150 km/h (90 mph)
(10-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure956 hPa (mbar)
Seasonal statistics
Tropical lows6
Tropical cyclones1
Severe tropical cyclones1
Total fatalities0
Total damageNone
Related articles
Australian region tropical cyclone seasons
2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2019–20, 2020–21

The 2018–19 Australian region cyclone season is the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form in the Southern Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans between 90°E and 160°E. The season officially began on 1 November 2018 and will run until 30 April 2019, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored, by one of the five Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) that operate in this region. Three of the five centers are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane, while the other two are operated by the National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics in Jakarta, Indonesia. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France will also monitor the basin during the season.

Seasonal forecasts

Region Average
number 		Chance
of more 		Chance
of less 		Actual
activity
Whole 11 37% 63% 1
Western 7 44% 56% 0
North-Western 5 41% 59% 0
Northern 3 46% 54% 1
Eastern 4 40% 60% 1
Source: BOM's Seasonal Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones.[1]

During October, ahead of the tropical cyclone season, the Bureau of Meteorology issued a tropical cyclone outlook for the upcoming 2018-19 season, which would officially run from 1 November 2018 to 30 April 2019. Seasonal forecasts were issued for the basin as a whole, as well as the Eastern, Northern and Western regions and the North-Western sub-region.[1] The forecasts took into account various factors, including the latest neutral to weak El Niño conditions that had been observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean.[1] The outlooks showed that activity in the basin overall, as well as for each of its individual regions, would be near to below average.[1] For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BOM forecast that the area would also see activity below its average of 7, with a 56% chance of a below average number of tropical cyclones occurring.[1] TCWC Perth also noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and a significant likelihood of at least one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia.[2] For the North-Western sub-region between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that activity would be above average, with a 41% chance of below-average tropical cyclone activity.[1] The Northern Territory, which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E, had a 54% chance of an above-average season.[1] The Eastern region between 142.5°E and 160°E was predicted to have a near-normal tropical cyclone season, with a 60% chance of below-average tropical cyclone activity.[1]

Seasonal summary

Tropical cyclone scales#Comparisons across basins

Systems

Tropical Low Liua

Tropical low (Australian scale)
Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
Duration26 September – 29 September (Out of basin on 27 September)
Peak intensity55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min);
995 hPa (mbar)

On 24 September, a weak low-pressure system developed in the far northeastern region of the Australian basin.[3] The system moved southeastwards over the following few days, and was classified as a tropical depression by the Fiji Meteorological Service on 26 September while situated on the boundary between the Australian basin and the South Pacific basin.[4][5] The system proceeded to intensify into a category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale, and was named 'Liua' by the Fiji Meteorological Service.[6] The system turned westwards and began tracking back towards the Australian region the next day,[7] but was assessed as having weakened into a tropical depression prior to exiting the South Pacific basin on 28 September.[8] After re-entering the Australian region, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Liua's weakening trend continued due to unfavourable atmospheric conditions and the cool sea surface temperatures of early spring. Dissipation of the tropical low into a remnant area of low-pressure occurred the following day over the northern Coral Sea.[9]

While in the Australian region as a tropical low on 26 September, the system caused minor impacts in the Solomon Islands. Despite only existing as a tropical system in the Australian region for a short period of time, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Liua made the 2018-19 season the third in a row in which the region's tropical cyclone activity began prior to the official start date of 1 November.[8][10][11][12]

Tropical Low Bouchra

Tropical low (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
Duration9 November – 16 November
(Exited basin; out of basin from 10 to 12 November, and 13 November)
Peak intensity55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min);
1004 hPa (mbar)

A weak low-pressure system developed in the equatorial Indian Ocean in Météo-France's area of responsibility on 1 November and moved slowly eastwards over the following few days while showing little sign of intensification.[13] Late on 9 November, as the developing precursor depression to Severe Cyclonic Storm Gaja in the Bay of Bengal moved further away and the competing low-level airflow convergence associated with it diminished,[14] the system's structure organised sufficiently to be classified as a tropical disturbance by Météo-France.[15] Soon there-afterwards, the system crossed the 90th meridian east and entered the Australian region, where it was classified by TCWC Jakarta as a tropical depression on 10 November local time.[16] Later the same day, the JTWC assessed the developing low as having attained tropical storm status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and assigned the system the unofficial designation 04S.[17] A few hours later, at 10:00 UTC, the system moved back westwards and returned to the South-West Indian Ocean basin,[18] where it gained the name 'Bouchra' from Météo-France and underwent a twelve-hour phase of rapid intensification to severe tropical storm status.[19]

After meandering just to the west of the South-West Indian Ocean border for a number of days, the system re-entered the Australian region late on 12 November.[20] By this stage, the system had weakened significantly from its peak intensity, and was only at tropical low strength.[21] The period of residence in the Australian basin proved to be short-lived once again, however, with Météo-France indicating that Ex-Tropical Cyclone Bouchra had returned to the far-eastern part of their area of responsibility early on 13 November.[20] The very next day, the Bureau of Meteorology noted that the system had once again returned to the Australian basin, and was located approximately 1000 km (620 mi) northwest of the Cocos Islands, marking the tropical low's third period of occupation of the Australian region in just five days.[22]

Tropical Low 03U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
 
Duration14 November – 18 November
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
1004 hPa (mbar)

On the morning of 14 November, the Bureau of Meteorology noted the development of a tropical low in an area of thunderstorms situated about 490 km (305 mi) northwest of Christmas Island.[22] Located over the warm waters of the tropical Indian Ocean off the coast of Java, the system was forecast to track southeastwards over the following days, and was assessed as having a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.[22] The tropical low tracked in a generally south-southwesterly direction over the following few days, but remained below tropical cyclone intensity due to atmospheric conditions that were unconducive to cyclogenesis.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Owen
Current storm status
Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Current storm status
Category 1 tropical cyclone (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:22:00 AEST (12:00 UTC), 14 December
Location:15°18′N 140°36′E / 15.3°N 140.6°E / 15.3; 140.6 (Owen) ± 20 nm
120 km (75 mi) WSW of Pormpuraaw
160 km (100 mi) NNW of Gilbert River Mouth
Sustained winds:120 km/h; 75 mph (10-min mean)
130 km/h; 80 mph (1-min mean)
gusting to 165 km/h; 105 mph
Pressure:975 hPa (28.79 inHg)
Movement:E at 17 kn (31 km/h; 20 mph)
See more detailed information.

The Bureau of Meteorology noted on 29 November that a low-pressure system located over the Solomon Islands had developed into a tropical low.[23] The following day, as the system approached Papua New Guinea's Tagula Island on a south-westwards track, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a tropical cyclone formation alert, owing to the improving organisation of the system.[24] Fuelled by the warm sea surface temperatures of the Coral Sea, and aided by excellent upper outflow channels, the tropical low continued to strengthen.[25] At 06:00 UTC on 2 December, the Bureau of Meteorology upgraded the system to Category 1 on the Australian scale, and gave it the name 'Owen', making it the first tropical cyclone to form in the basin of the 2018-19 Australian season. Owen weakened rapidly on 4 December and was downgraded to a tropical low.[26]

Owen continued travelling westwards over the Coral Sea as a tropical low and made landfall well north of Cardwell early on 10 December. After entering the Gulf of Carpentaria and reorganizing, Owen reached Category 1 intensity for a second time on 11 December. The storm then completed an anticyclonic loop and turned back to the east.

At this time the system started to gradually intensify, reaching the category 3 cyclone in the Australian Scale,at Owen looped, it made landfall near Bing Bong settlement, developing a eyewall. After the system made landfall, land interaction caused a collapse in the eye and the system deteriorated in appearance.

For the latest official information, see:

Tropical Low 05U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
 
Duration9 December – 12 December
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
1005 hPa (mbar)

On 9 December, the Bureau of Meteorology announced the development of a weak tropical low from a low-pressure system moving westwards through the mid-eastern Coral Sea, located approximately 1100 km (680 mi) east-northeast of Townsville.[27]

Tropical Low

Tropical low (Australian scale)
 
Duration14 December – Present
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
1006 hPa (mbar)

Storm names

Bureau of Meteorology

Since the start of the 2008–09 season, there has only been one list from which the Bureau of Meteorology has assigned names to tropical cyclones, despite still operating three separate tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) in Perth, Darwin and Brisbane.[28] These warning centres monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any within the areas of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta or TCWC Port Moresby. The next 12 names on the naming list are listed below:

  • Owen (active)
  • Penny (unused)
  • Riley (unused)
  • Savannah (unused)
  • Trevor (unused)
  • Veronica (unused)
  • Wallace (unused)
  • Ann (unused)
  • Blake (unused)
  • Claudia (unused)
  • Damien (unused)
  • Esther (unused)

TCWC Jakarta

The tropical cyclone warning centre in Jakarta monitors tropical cyclones from the Equator to 11°S and between the longitudes 90°E and 145°E. Should a tropical depression reach tropical cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's area of responsibility, it will be assigned the next name from the following list:[28]

  • Kenanga (unused)
  • Lili (unused)
  • Mangga (unused)
  • Seroja (unused)
  • Teratai (unused)

TCWC Port Moresby

Tropical cyclones that develop between the Equator and 11°S, between 151°E and 160°E, are assigned names by the tropical cyclone warning centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[29] As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below:

  • Alu (unused)
  • Buri (unused)
  • Dodo (unused)
  • Emau (unused)
  • Fere (unused)
  • Hibu (unused)
  • Ila (unused)
  • Kama (unused)
  • Lobu (unused)
  • Maila (unused)

Season effects

Name Dates Peak intensity Areas affected Damages
(AU$) 		Damages
(US$) 		Deaths
Category Wind speed
(km/h (mph)) 		Pressure
(hPa)
Liua 26 – 29 September Tropical low 55 km/h (35 mph) 995 hPa (29.38 inHg) Eastern Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands None None 0
Bouchra 9 – 16 November Tropical low 55 km/h (35 mph) 1004 hPa (29.65 inHg) None None None 0
03U 14 – 18 November Tropical low Not specified 1004 hPa (29.65 inHg) Java, Sumatra None None 0
Owen 29 November – Present Category 3 severe tropical cyclone 150 km/h (90 mph) 956 hPa (28.23 inHg) Solomon Islands, Eastern Papua New Guinea, Queensland, Northern Territory None None 0
05U 9 – 12 December Tropical low Not specified 1005 hPa (29.68 inHg) None None None 0
Tropical Low 14 December – Present Tropical low Not specified 1006 hPa (29.71 inHg) None None None 0
Season aggregates
6 systems 26 September – Present 150 km/h (90 mph) 956 hPa (28.23 inHg) None 0


See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h National Climate Centre (8 October 2018). "Australian Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2018 to 2019: Lower number of cyclones likely for Australia". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 8 October 2018.
  2. ^ Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (10 October 2016). "Western Australia Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2016–17". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 10 October 2016. Retrieved 10 October 2016. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  3. ^ "MSLP Analysis (00:00 UTC)". Bureau of Meteorology. 24 September 2018. Retrieved 12 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  4. ^ "Gale Warning". Fiji Meteorological Service. 26 September 2018. Archived from the original on 26 September 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  5. ^ "Tropical Disturbance Advisory 1A (Liua)". Fiji Meteorological Service. 26 September 2018. Archived from the original on 26 September 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  6. ^ "Liua becomes earliest tropical cyclone on record to form in the South Pacific Ocean - AccuWeather.com". m.accuweather.com. Retrieved 2018-11-10.
  7. ^ "Tropical Disturbance Advisory 10A (Liua)". Fiji Meteorological Service. 28 September 2018. Archived from the original on 10 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  8. ^ a b "Weekly Tropical Climate Note (2 October 2018)". Bureau of Meteorology. 2 October 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  9. ^ "MSLP Analysis Chart (06 UTC)". Bureau of Meteorology. 29 September 2018. Retrieved 12 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  10. ^ "Western Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook". Bureau of Meteorology. 23 September 2016. Archived from the original on 23 September 2016. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  11. ^ "Southern Indonesian Area Tropical Cyclone Outlook". Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. 11 October 2016. Archived from the original on 11 October 2016. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  12. ^ "Western Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook". Bureau of Meteorology. 8 August 2017. Archived from the original on 8 August 2018. Retrieved 8 August 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  13. ^ "12 UTC Gradient Level Wind Analysis Chart". Bureau of Meteorology. 1 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  14. ^ "Tropical Activity Bulletin" (PDF). Météo-France La Réunion. 9 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  15. ^ "Moderate Tropical Storm Bouchra Forecast Track Map". Météo-France La Réunion. 10 November 2018. Archived from the original on 11 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  16. ^ "Current Tropical Cyclone Basin Activity". Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency. 10 November 2018. Archived from the original on 10 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  17. ^ "Tropical Cyclone 04S Warning #1". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 10 November 2018. Archived from the original on 10 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  18. ^ "Tropical Activity Bulletin" (PDF). Météo-France La Réunion. 10 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  19. ^ "Bouchra Analysis Bulletin #2" (PDF). Météo-France La Réunion. 11 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  20. ^ a b "Tropical Activity Bulletin" (PDF). Météo-France La Réunion. 13 November 2018. Retrieved 13 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  21. ^ "Western Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook". Bureau of Meteorology. 13 November 2018. Archived from the original on 13 November 2018. Retrieved 13 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  22. ^ a b c "Western Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook". Bureau of Meteorology. 14 November 2018. Archived from the original on 14 November 2018. Retrieved 14 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  23. ^ "Eastern Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook". Bureau of Meteorology. 29 November 2018. Archived from the original on 29 November 2018. Retrieved 29 November 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  24. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Owen)". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 30 November 2018. Archived from the original on 1 December 2018. Retrieved 1 December 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  25. ^ "Tropical Cyclone 05P (Owen) Warning #1". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 2 December 2018. Archived from the original on 2 December 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  26. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Owen Forecast Track Map #3". Bureau of Meteorology. 2 December 2018. Archived from the original on 2 December 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  27. ^ "Eastern Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook". Bureau of Meteorology. 9 December 2018. Archived from the original on 9 December 2018. Retrieved 9 December 2018. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  28. ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Operational plan for the South Pacific & Southeast Indian Ocean, 2014 Edition" (PDF). WMO. Retrieved 2016-06-12.
  29. ^ Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Retrieved 2013-07-01.
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