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2022 Atlantic hurricane season

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2022 Atlantic hurricane season
Seasonal boundaries
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Seasonal statistics
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageNone
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is the current cycle of the annual tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, and will end on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean (over 97%).[1] The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15.[2] No subtropical or tropical development occurred in the Atlantic prior to the start of the season, making this the first since 2014 not to have a pre-season named storm.[3]

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2022 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
Average (1991–2020) 14.4 7.2 3.2 [4]
Record high activity 30 15 7† [5]
Record low activity 4 2† 0† [5]
CSU December 9, 2021 13–16 6–8 2–3 [6]
TSR December 10, 2021 18 8 3 [7]
TSR April 6, 2022 18 8 4 [8]
CSU April 7, 2022 19 9 4 [9]
TWC April 14, 2022 20 8 4 [10]
UA April 14, 2022 14 7 3 [11]
NCSU April 20, 2022 17–21 7–9 3–5 [12]
PSU May 9, 2022 11-19 N/A N/A [13]
UKMO* May 23, 2022 18 9 4 [14]
NOAA May 24, 2022 14–21 6–10 3–6 [15]
TSR May 31, 2022 18 8 4 [16]
CSU June 2, 2022 20 10 5 [17]
Actual activity
 0 0 0
* June–November only
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units.[18] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h).[4] NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[4]

Pre-season forecasts

On December 9, 2021, CSU issued an extended range forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, predicting slightly above-average activity with 13–16 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, 2–3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of about 124 units.[6][clarification needed] TSR also issued an extended range forecast on December 10, 2021.[7] It predicted overall near-average tropical activity with its ACE index, however, anticipating 18 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes to form during the season. One of their factors was the expectation of a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation condition by the third quarter of 2022. However, they said that this outlook had "large uncertainties".[7]

On April 7, 2022, CSU issued their first extended range seasonal forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting well above-average activity, with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 160 units. Their factors supporting an active hurricane season included above average-sea surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and a cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña pattern, corresponding to a low chance of an El Niño.[19] On April 14, 2022, University of Arizona (UA) issued its seasonal prediction for a slightly above-average hurricane season, with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 129 units.[11] North Carolina State University (NCSU) made its prediction for the season on April 20, calling for an above-average season with 17 to 21 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.[12] On June 2, 2022, CSU updated their extended range seasonal forecast, increasing the amount of tropical cyclones to 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an overall ACE index of 180 units. This was done after later analysis of lower chances of an El Nino during the season, as well as a warmer than average tropical Atlantic.[20]

On May 23, UKMO issued their own forecast for the 2022 season, predicting an above average season with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with a 70% chance that each of these statistics will fall between 13 and 23, 6 and 12, and 2 and 6, respectively.[14] The following day, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their forecasts for the season, predicting a 65% chance of above-average activity and 25% chance for below-average activity, with 14–21 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–6 major hurricanes.[15]

Systems

Potential Tropical Cyclone One

Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Current storm status
Potential tropical cyclone (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:7:00 a.m. CDT (12:00 UTC) June 3
Location:22°24′N 86°48′W / 22.4°N 86.8°W / 22.4; -86.8 (Potential Tropical Cyclone One) ± 40 nm
About 125 mi (200 km) N of Cozumel, Mexico
About 420 mi (675 km) SW of Fort Myers, Florida
Sustained winds:35 knots (40 mph; 65 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 45 knots (50 mph; 85 km/h)
Pressure:1002 mbar (29.59 inHg)
Movement:NE at 5 kn (6 mph; 9 km/h)
See more detailed information.

On May 31, a large low-pressure area developed near the Yucatan Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha in the East Pacific interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.[21] The low moved eastward over the Yucatan Peninsula, producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the peninsula and northwestern Caribbean Sea on June 1–2.[22] At 21:00 UTC on June 2, tropical storm watches were issued for Cuba and parts of Florida, and advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One were initiated.[23]

Current Storm Information

As of 7:00 a.m. CDT (12:00 UTC) June 3, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is located within 40 nautical miles of 22°24′N 86°48′W / 22.4°N 86.8°W / 22.4; -86.8, about 125 mi (200 km) north of Cozumel, Mexico and about 420 mi (675 km) southwest of Fort Myers, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are 35 knots (40 mph; 65 km/h), with gusts up to 45 knots (50 mph; 85 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1003 mbar (29.62 inHg), and the system is moving northeast at 5 knots (5.8 mph; 9.3 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the east of the center of One.

For the latest official information, see:

Watches and warnings

Template:HurricaneWarningsTable

Storm names

Main articles: Tropical cyclone naming, History of tropical cyclone naming, and List of historical tropical cyclone names

The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2022. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2023. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2028 season.[24] This is the same list used in the 2016 season, with the exceptions of Martin and Owen, which replaced Matthew and Otto, respectively.[25]

  • Alex (unused)
  • Bonnie (unused)
  • Colin (unused)
  • Danielle (unused)
  • Earl (unused)
  • Fiona (unused)
  • Gaston (unused)
  • Hermine (unused)
  • Ian (unused)
  • Julia (unused)
  • Karl (unused)
  • Lisa (unused)
  • Martin (unused)
  • Nicole (unused)
  • Owen (unused)
  • Paula (unused)
  • Richard (unused)
  • Shary (unused)
  • Tobias (unused)
  • Virginie (unused)
  • Walter (unused)


See also

References

  1. ^ "Hurricanes Frequently Asked Questions". Miami, Florida: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. June 1, 2021. Retrieved January 30, 2022.
  2. ^ Brown, Daniel (May 15, 2022). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 15, 2022.
  3. ^ Donegan, Brian (May 25, 2022). "For first time since 2014, Atlantic hurricane season might not start early". New York City, New York, United States of America: FoxWeather. Retrieved May 31, 2022.
  4. ^ a b c "Background Information: North Atlantic Hurricane Season". College Park, Maryland: Climate Prediction Center. May 22, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2021.
  5. ^ a b "Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT version 2)" (Database). United States National Hurricane Center. April 5, 2023. Retrieved November 9, 2024. Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  6. ^ a b "Colorado State University releases first look at 2022 Hurricane Season". Cape Coral, Florida: WFTX-TV. December 9, 2021. Retrieved May 25, 2022.
  7. ^ a b c Saunders, Marc; Lea, Adam (December 10, 2021). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2022" (PDF). tropicalstormrisk.com. London, UK: University College London. Retrieved December 10, 2021.
  8. ^ Saunders, Marc; Roberts, Frank; Lea, Adam (April 6, 2022). "April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2022" (PDF). tropicalstormrisk.com. London, UK: University College London. Retrieved April 7, 2022.
  9. ^ "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2022" (PDF). Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. April 7, 2022. Retrieved April 7, 2022.
  10. ^ Belles, Jonathan (April 14, 2022). "TWC Hurricane Outlook Released: 2022 Atlantic Season Expected to Be Another Busy One". The Weather Channel. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  11. ^ a b Davis, Kyle; Zeng, Xubin (April 14, 2022). "Forecast of the 2022 Hurricane Activities over the North Atlantic" (PDF). Tucson, Arizona: University of Arizona. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  12. ^ a b Peake, Tracy (April 20, 2022). "NC State Researchers Predict Active Hurricane Season". Raleigh, North Carolina: North Carolina State University. Retrieved April 20, 2022.
  13. ^ "ESSC: Earth System Science Center - North Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction".
  14. ^ a b "North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2022".
  15. ^ a b "NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration".
  16. ^ Lea, Adam; Nick, Wood (May 31, 2022). "Pre-Season Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2022" (PDF). tropicalstormrisk.com. London, UK: University College London. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  17. ^ "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2022" (PDF). Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. June 2, 2022. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  18. ^ Saunders, Marc; Lea, Adam (December 9, 2020). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2021" (PDF). tropicalstormrisk.com. London, UK: University College London. Retrieved April 16, 2022.
  19. ^ Klotzbach, Philip [@philklotzbach] (April 7, 2022). "Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for above-average season: 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes & 4 major hurricanes. Reasons for above-average forecast include predicted lack of #ElNino and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic https://t.co/uauRVHEjql https://t.co/7dzsFjQBN9" (Tweet). Archived from the original on April 7, 2022. Retrieved April 10, 2022 – via Twitter.
  20. ^ Klotzbach, Philip [@philklotzbach] (June 2, 2022). "Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast update from @ColoradoStateU calls for very active season: 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes & 5 major hurricanes. Forecast increased from April due to low chance of #ElNino & warmer than normal tropical Atlantic https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-06.pdf https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1532361400277839873" (Tweet). Retrieved June 2, 2022 – via Twitter.
  21. ^ Papin, Philippe (May 31, 2022). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  22. ^ Beven, Jack (June 2, 2022). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  23. ^ Beven, Jack (June 2, 2022). Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  24. ^ "Hurricane Names for the 2022 Hurricane Season". Dublin, New Hampshire: Yankee Publishing. December 6, 2021. Retrieved February 5, 2022.
  25. ^ "World Meteorological Organization retires storm names Matthew and Otto". Washington, D.C.: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. March 27, 2017. Retrieved February 5, 2022.
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