2023 Hessian state election
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All 133 seats in the Landtag including overhang and levelling seats 67 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 2,812,560 (64.9%)![]() | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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![]() Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2023 Hessian state election was held on 8 October 2023 to elect the 21st Landtag of Hesse.[1] The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union and The Greens, led by Minister-President Boris Rhein of the CDU. The 2023 Bavarian state election was held the same day.
The result was a clear victory for the CDU, which took almost 35% of the vote on a swing of 7.6 percentage points. At 18%, the Alternative for Germany lifted its vote by over five points and became the second-largest party in a Western state for the first time. The Greens conversely lost five points, falling to fourth place on 15%, just behind the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) who suffered similar losses. According to preliminary results, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) passed the 5% electoral threshold by fractions of a percentage point; meanwhile, The Left fell to 3% and lost all their seats.[2]
Overall, the incumbent coalition increased its majority, with a strengthened position for the leading CDU. The result, amidst a campaign dominated by federal issues such as immigration, was perceived as a blow for the federal government, with its three member parties – the SPD, Greens, and FDP – all suffering losses. The results also indicated the increasing popularity of the far-right AfD, which in previous months had moved into second place in federal opinion polling.[3][4]
Election organization
Election date
Article 79 of the Constitution of Hesse stipulates that the state parliament is elected for five years. The new election must take place before the end of the electoral period. According to Section 1 of the Hessian state election law, the election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday. The day of the election is determined by the state government by ordinance.
Since the 20th state parliament was constituted on January 18, 2019, Sunday, January 14, 2024 is the latest possible date for the election to the 21st Hessian state parliament.
On January 17, 2023, the Rhein cabinet decided to set October 8, 2023 as the election day. It follows the tradition that voting takes place in Hesse in the three months before the end of the electoral period. The Bavarian state election took place the same day.
Electoral system
Parties and voter groups that have not been represented in the state parliament without interruption since the last state election need 1,000 signatures for their state list and 50 for their district election proposals .
The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate on the state list and one for a candidate in their constituency. The state list of a party is elected with the state vote that is decisive for the allocation of seats in the state parliament.
Parliament seats are calculated using the Hare-Niemeyer method.
Parties
The following parties were represented in the previous Landtag of Hesse:
Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | 2018 result | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes (%) | Seats | |||||
CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands |
Christian democracy | Boris Rhein | 27.0% | 40 / 137
| |
Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
Green politics | Tarek Al-Wazir | 19.8% | 29 / 137
| |
SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
Social democracy | Nancy Faeser | 19.8% | 29 / 137
| |
AfD | Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland |
German nationalism Right-wing populism |
Robert Lambrou | 13.1% | 19 / 137
| |
FDP | Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei |
Classical liberalism | Stefan Naas | 7.5% | 11 / 137
| |
Linke | The Left Die Linke |
Democratic socialism | Elisabeth Kula Jan Schalauske |
6.3% | 9 / 137
|
Opinion polling
Graphical summary
Party polling
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
CDU | Grüne | SPD | AfD | FDP | Linke | FW | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 state election | 8 Oct 2023 | – | 34.6 | 14.8 | 15.1 | 18.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 16.1 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 3–6 Oct 2023 | 949 | 34.5 | 16.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 18.0 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–5 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 32 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 | 1,002 | 33 | 16.5 | 16 | 16 | 5.5 | 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 16.5 |
INSA | 25 Sep – 2 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 |
Civey | 24 Sep – 1 Oct 2023 | 2,900 | 31 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 4 | – | 10 | 13 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25–28 Sep 2023 | 1,041 | 32 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
Infratest dimap | 25–27 Sep 2023 | 1,515 | 31 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 22–26 Sep 2023 | 1,000 | 30.5 | 18 | 16 | 17.5 | 5 | 2.5 | 4 | 6.5 | 12.5 |
Civey | 7–14 Sep 2023 | 3,001 | 31 | 19 | 19 | 14 | 6 | 3 | – | 8 | 12 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 9–13 Sep 2023 | 1,200 | 30 | 17 | 20 | 17.5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4.5 | 10 |
INSA | 4–11 Sep 2023 | 1,000 | 29 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
Infratest dimap | 5–9 Sep 2023 | 1,170 | 31 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–7 Sep 2023 | 1,107 | 30 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 11 |
Civey | 24–31 Aug 2023 | 3,002 | 29 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 6 | 3 | – | 8 | 9 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 25–29 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 29 | 16 | 20 | 18 | 5.5 | 2 | 4.5 | 5 | 9 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 21–23 Aug 2023 | 1,005 | 31 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 11 |
Civey | 9–16 Aug 2023 | 2,810 | 29 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 3 | – | 8 | 9 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 18–23 Jul 2023 | 1,015 | 25.5 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 5.5 | 6 | 5.5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 23 Jun – 1 Jul 2023 | 1,400 | 26 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 6 | 6 |
INSA | 5–12 Jun 2023 | 1,000 | 29 | 18 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 17–22 May 2023 | 1,002 | 29 | 16 | 23.5 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 6.5 | 5.5 |
INSA | 17–24 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 30 | 20 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 5–14 Apr 2023 | 1,398 | 28 | 18 | 24 | 12.5 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5.5 | 4 |
Infratest dimap | 7–11 Mar 2023 | 1,177 | 32 | 22 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 3 | – | 7 | 10 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 3–7 Mar 2023 | 1,003 | 29 | 21 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 1.5 | 3 | 4.5 | 5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 3–6 Feb 2023 | 1,521 | 26 | 20 | 25 | 12 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 1 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 23–27 Dec 2022 | 1,150 | 28 | 19 | 25 | 12 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 3 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 25–27 Nov 2022 | 1,100 | 30 | 19.5 | 22 | 12 | 6.5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 24–28 Oct 2022 | 1,082 | 28.5 | 21 | 18 | 13.5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7.5 |
Infratest dimap | 12–15 Oct 2022 | 1,161 | 27 | 22 | 22 | 12 | 6 | 3 | – | 8 | 5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 25–29 Sep 2022 | 1,000 | 30.5 | 21 | 15 | 14.5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9.5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 25–30 Aug 2022 | 1,010 | 29.5 | 26 | 15.5 | 9 | 7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 6 | 3.5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 7–12 Jul 2022 | 1,043 | 29.5 | 26.5 | 20 | 7 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 12–18 Jun 2022 | 1,200 | 32 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Apr–4 May 2022 | 1,023 | 28 | 24.5 | 21 | 7 | 8 | 3.5 | 2 | 6 | 3.5 |
INSA | 4–11 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | 24 | 19 | 24 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | Tie |
Wahlkreisprognose | 3–10 Mar 2022 | 1,400 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 1 |
Infratest dimap | 28 Feb–2 Mar 2022 | 1,169 | 27 | 20 | 24 | 7 | 9 | 5 | – | 8 | 3 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 21–28 Jan 2022 | 1,102 | 25 | 19 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 26 Nov–2 Dec 2021 | 1,000 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 24.5 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | 3 |
INSA | 11–19 Oct 2021 | 1,253 | 20 | 20 | 26 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 22.8 | 15.8 | 27.6 | 8.8 | 12.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 5–11 May 2021 | – | 21.5 | 27 | 16 | 9.5 | 12 | 5 | 5 | – | 5.5 |
Infratest dimap | 18–23 Feb 2021 | 1,001 | 32 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 6 | – | 7 | 11 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 7–14 Dec 2020 | – | 32 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 12 | 6 | 6 | – | 4 | 10.5 |
Infratest dimap | 1–7 Dec 2020 | 1,004 | 34 | 22 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 5 | – | 5 | 12 |
INSA | 22–29 Oct 2020 | 1,018 | 30 | 19 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 9 | – | 7 | 11 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 5–12 Sep 2020 | – | 31.5 | 22 | 16.5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | – | – | 9.5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 10–16 July 2020 | – | 30 | 21.5 | 20.5 | 12 | 5 | 7 | – | – | 8.5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 20–25 May 2020 | – | 36 | 20 | 20.5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | – | – | 15.5 |
Infratest dimap | 12–13 May 2020 | 1,005 | 36 | 20 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 4 | – | 5 | 16 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 6–14 Apr 2020 | – | 32 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 6.5 | 5 | – | – | 10 |
Infratest dimap | 7–13 Feb 2020 | 1,000 | 26 | 25 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 8 | – | 6 | 1 |
INSA | 4–16 Dec 2019 | 2,000 | 26 | 23 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
2019 EP election | 26 May 2019 | – | 25.8 | 23.4 | 18.4 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 10.0 | 2.4 |
Infratest dimap | 16–24 Apr 2019 | 1,001 | 27 | 21 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 6 | – | 5 | 6 |
2018 state election | 28 Oct 2018 | – | 27.0 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 7.2 |
Minister-president polling
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
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None/ Unsure |
Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rhein CDU |
Al-Wazir Grüne |
Faeser SPD |
Lambrou AfD | |||||
Infratest dimap | 8 Oct 2023 | – | 38 | 23 | 15 | – | 24 | 15 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 50 | 30 | – | – | 20 | 19 | ||
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 61 | – | 21 | – | 18 | 40 | ||
Wahlkreisprognose | 3–6 Oct 2023 | 949 | 38 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 21 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–5 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 44 | 33 | – | – | 23 | 11 |
55 | – | 24 | – | 21 | 31 | |||
Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 | 1,002 | 35 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 25 | 18 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25–28 Sep 2023 | 1,041 | 44 | 31 | – | – | 25 | 13 |
55 | – | 21 | – | 24 | 34 | |||
Infratest dimap | 25–27 Sep 2023 | 1,515 | 35 | 19 | 14 | – | 32 | 16 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 22–26 Sep 2023 | 1,000 | 33 | 18 | 13 | 11 | 25 | 15 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 9–13 Sep 2023 | 1,200 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 27 | 15 |
40 | – | 24 | – | 36 | 16 | |||
Infratest dimap | 5–9 Sep 2023 | 1,170 | 33 | 21 | 17 | – | 29 | 12 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–7 Sep 2023 | 1,107 | 42 | 31 | – | – | 27 | 11 |
50 | – | 26 | – | 24 | 24 | |||
Wahlkreisprognose | 25–29 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 30 | 15 | 21 | 12 | 22 | 9 |
32 | – | 27 | – | 41 | 5 | |||
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 21–23 Aug 2023 | 1,005 | 44 | 31 | – | – | 25 | 13 |
50 | – | 28 | – | 22 | 22 | |||
Wahlkreisprognose | 18–23 Jul 2023 | 1,015 | 28 | 15 | 20 | 7 | 30 | 8 |
31 | – | 28 | – | 41 | 3 | |||
Wahlkreisprognose | 23 Jun – 1 Jul 2023 | 1,400 | 30 | 17 | 20 | – | 33 | 10 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 17–22 May 2023 | 1,002 | 37 | 19 | 23 | – | 21 | 14 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 5–14 Apr 2023 | 1,398 | 34 | 23 | 24 | – | 19 | 10 |
Infratest dimap | 7–11 Mar 2023 | 1,177 | 32 | 23 | 17 | – | 28 | 9 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 3–7 Mar 2023 | 1,003 | 34 | 23 | 25 | – | 18 | 9 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 3–6 Feb 2023 | 1,521 | 32 | 20 | 27 | – | 21 | 5 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 23–27 Dec 2022 | 1,150 | 32 | 20 | 25 | – | 23 | 7 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 25–27 Nov 2022 | 1,100 | 36 | 15 | 26 | – | 23 | 10 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 24–28 Oct 2022 | 1,082 | 37 | 19 | 24 | – | 20 | 13 |
Infratest dimap | 12–15 Oct 2022 | 1,161 | 30 | 21 | 17 | – | 32 | 9 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 25–29 Sep 2022 | 1,400 | 39 | 19 | 19 | – | 23 | 20 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 25–30 Aug 2022 | 1,010 | 36 | 24 | 20 | – | 20 | 12 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 7–12 Jul 2022 | 1,043 | 35 | 25 | 23 | – | 17 | 10 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 10–17 Jun 2022 | 1,123 | 41 | 30 | 17 | – | 12 | 11 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Apr – 4 May 2022 | 1,023 | 30 | 28 | 23 | – | 19 | 2 |
Wahlkreisprognose | 3–10 Mar 2022 | 1,400 | 26 | 28 | 22 | – | 24 | 2 |
Infratest dimap | 28 Feb – 2 Mar 2022 | 1,169 | 26 | 23 | 20 | – | 31 | 3 |
Preliminary results
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Municipalities_in_Hesse_2023_Results.svg/250px-Municipalities_in_Hesse_2023_Results.svg.png)
Party | Constituency | Party list | Total seats |
+/- | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Seats | Votes | % | +/- | Seats | |||||
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) | 997,602 | 35.6 | 52 | 972,595 | 34.6 | ![]() |
0 | 52 | ![]() | ||
Alternative for Germany (AfD) | 490,828 | 17.5 | 0 | 518,674 | 18.4 | ![]() |
28 | 28 | ![]() | ||
Social Democratic Party (SPD) | 512,229 | 18.3 | 0 | 424,487 | 15.1 | ![]() |
23 | 23 | ![]() | ||
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) | 397,532 | 14.2 | 3 | 415,888 | 14.8 | ![]() |
19 | 22 | ![]() | ||
Free Democratic Party (FDP) | 137,268 | 4.9 | 0 | 141,608 | 5.0 | ![]() |
8 | 8 | ![]() | ||
Free Voters (FW) | 130,987 | 4.7 | 0 | 98,256 | 3.5 | ![]() |
0 | 0 | ![]() | ||
The Left (DIE LINKE) | 90,529 | 3.2 | 0 | 86,821 | 3.1 | ![]() |
0 | 0 | ![]() | ||
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) | 5,181 | 0.2 | 0 | 43,339 | 1.5 | ![]() |
0 | 0 | ![]() | ||
Volt Germany (Volt) | 13,707 | 0.5 | 0 | 27,576 | 1.0 | New | 0 | 0 | New | ||
Die PARTEI | 18,598 | 0.7 | 0 | 23,651 | 0.8 | ![]() |
0 | 0 | ![]() | ||
Grassroots Democratic Party (dieBasis) | 4,287 | 0.2 | 0 | 13,668 | 0.5 | New | 0 | 0 | New | ||
V-Partei³ | 155 | 0.0 | 0 | 9,462 | 0.3 | ![]() |
0 | 0 | ![]() | ||
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) | 1,346 | 0.0 | 0 | 8,633 | 0.3 | ![]() |
0 | 0 | ![]() | ||
Climate List Germany (Klimaliste) | 952 | 0.0 | 0 | 6,203 | 0.2 | New | 0 | 0 | New | ||
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) | – | 5,900 | 0.2 | ![]() |
0 | 0 | ![]() | ||||
Action Citizens for Justice (ABG) | 321 | 0.0 | 0 | 4,440 | 0.2 | New | 0 | 0 | New | ||
Party of Humanists (PdH) | 878 | 0.0 | 0 | 4,265 | 0.2 | ![]() |
0 | 0 | ![]() | ||
German Communist Party (DKP) | 776 | 0.0 | 0 | 2,235 | 0.1 | New | 0 | 0 | New | ||
Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany (APPD) | 91 | 0.0 | 0 | 1,962 | 0.1 | New | 0 | 0 | New | ||
Party for Biomedical Rejuvenation Research (Verjüngungsforschung) | – | 1,521 | 0.1 | ![]() |
0 | 0 | ![]() | ||||
The New Centre (DIE NEUE MITTE) | – | 1,376 | 0.0 | New | 0 | 0 | New | ||||
Non-party Resident Representatives (NEV) | 880 | 0.0 | 0 | – | 0 | ![]() | |||||
Practitioner Party (PP) | 420 | 0.0 | 0 | – | 0 | New | |||||
Solidarity, Justice, Change (SGV) | 161 | 0.0 | 0 | – | 0 | New | |||||
Solibew | 124 | 0.0 | 0 | – | 0 | New | |||||
MeRA25 | 99 | 0.0 | 0 | – | 0 | New | |||||
Total | 2,805,895 | 100.00 | 55 | 2,812,560 | 100.00 | 78 | 133 | ![]() | |||
Invalid | 52,198 | 1.8 | 45,533 | 1.6 | |||||||
Turnout | 2,858,093 | 66.0 | 2,858,093 | 66.0 | ![]() |
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Registered voters | 4,331,942 | 4,331,942 |
State government formation
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References
- ^ "Landtagswahl findet am 8. Oktober 2023 statt". hessen.de (in German). 17 January 2023. Retrieved 2023-01-31.
- ^ "Germany: Scholz coalition battered in Bavaria, Hesse polls". Deutsche Welle. 9 October 2023.
- ^ "German conservative opposition wins 2 state elections, with far-right making gains". Associated Press. 8 October 2023.
- ^ "German voters move further to the right". Deutsche Welle. 9 October 2023.