Talk:Climate change
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Frequently asked questions
Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?
A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.[1]
Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?
A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."[2] Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?
A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,[3][4] including academically trained ones,[5][6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:
Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?
A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?
A5: Two reasons:
Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?
A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning.
In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2?
A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.
Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?
A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?
A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.[12]
More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?
A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.
While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:
Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?
A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?
A12: Measurements show that it has not.[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.
Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?
A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.[18] Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?
A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.
Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?
A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.
Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?
A16: No,
Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?
A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?
A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?
A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.
Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?
A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?
A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?
A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?
A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:[28]
Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?
A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References
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This is the talk page for discussing improvements to the Climate change article. This is not a forum for general discussion of the article's subject. |
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Global_warming#Politics needs clarification to Kyoto Protocol as it is due to expire.
Global_warming#Politics needs clarification to Kyoto Protocol which will be expired soon, see Group of Two for example. New Protocols are in the works, such as from the Geoengineering article and Convention on Biological Diversity article relating to the Nagoya Protocol. 209.255.78.138 (talk) 20:26, 5 November 2010 (UTC)
- Probably correct. It should be in the Main article politics of global warming first, though. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 07:31, 6 November 2010 (UTC)
- See Post-Kyoto Protocol negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions 209.255.78.138 (talk) 15:08, 9 November 2010 (UTC)
- I thought you said that the Convention on Biological Diversity was pre-Kyoto, even if it were relevant to Global warming. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 15:42, 9 November 2010 (UTC)
- Various Conference of the Parties ... 99.155.147.236 (talk) 06:09, 8 December 2010 (UTC)
- Not just United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change#Conferences_of_the_Parties, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity[1], and others[2][3][4] ... 99.27.172.206 (talk) 07:20, 10 December 2010 (UTC)
- Various Conference of the Parties ... 99.155.147.236 (talk) 06:09, 8 December 2010 (UTC)
- I thought you said that the Convention on Biological Diversity was pre-Kyoto, even if it were relevant to Global warming. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 15:42, 9 November 2010 (UTC)
- See Post-Kyoto Protocol negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions 209.255.78.138 (talk) 15:08, 9 November 2010 (UTC)
This article in popular culture
Just as a heads-up, the Pearls Before Swine strip for November 18, 2010, features Rat editing the Global warming article to say that "jumping off your roof while imitating one of The Three Stooges is a good way to curb carbon emissions." Based on previous encounters between PBS fans and Wikipedia, this article could use a spot of extra attention for the next few days. - Dravecky (talk) 07:17, 18 November 2010 (UTC)
why was the global warming is so much concern and why was it not mention in the 80's and the 90's? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 199.222.128.250 (talk) 02:17, 23 November 2010 (UTC)
It was, it was called the greenhouse effect then. Climate change is the third name given to these phenomena, AGW is the most recent and the coolest. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 81.106.97.225 (talk) 10:26, 23 November 2010 (UTC)
Why do the global warming / climate change folks point to sea level rise as proof when the Wikipedia "Sea Level Rise" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise shows a steady trend? This leads me to believe that the sea level rise information (graphs) in the climate change articles is presented in a way that shows bias. There are two graphs shown on Wikipedia's Sea Level Rise page... please add another higher quality graph showing the same data over the last 10 to 20 years. And add higher quality graphics and a legend showing all the individual data lines from each station. Then I can make a more informed view from data that isn't so skewed by bias. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 97.114.177.129 (talk) 23:47, 25 November 2010 (UTC)
I think the most common evidence for temperature rice is the temperature records. That is probably why this article or the article climate change doesn't include any graphs of the current sea level rice. You can however find the satelite data of the last 17 year sealevel here http://sealevel.colorado.edu/results.php ScientificStandard (talk) 20:27, 30 November 2010 (UTC)
- Probably the main reason none of the climate change articles have good graphs of temperature and sea-level rise is that the best ones are copyrighted by the IPCC, and so far we have not been able to arrange mutually satisfactory conditions of use. There are other graphs — indeed, many graphs — but, like much other material in primary sources, often discordant. This is why we generally stick with material from secondary sources. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:26, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- We do get, and use, some excellent graphs from http://www.globalwarmingart.com/ --Nigelj (talk) 21:46, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- Yes, indeed, but those are largely re-creations, and so somewhat lacking in authenticity. And (the last time I looked), not as comprehensive as what the IPCC has. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:11, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- We do get, and use, some excellent graphs from http://www.globalwarmingart.com/ --Nigelj (talk) 21:46, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
What is the Ideal Temperature?
Sorry for the intrusion but this seem like a reasonable place to find directions to science regarding what the ideal temperature is for life on earth and how that is determined and is it sustainable in light of geologic record. It seems relevant if humans are going to embark on massive geoengineering either through carbon brokers or mitigation. And if possible, any sources of information on how humans may adapt when (not if) we encounter the next Little or Great Ice Age. This is not, I repeat, not POV. They are questions that I would honestly like to know the answer to. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Multiperspective (talk • contribs) 04:19, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- Did you search the past discussions for similar comments? There's a search bar at the top of the talk page for archived discussions, here's a in-page link, if you need help, please ask. If "ideal" is along the lines of "good", here are some results. I don't recall anyone questioning you of POV, but I would appreciate it if you could demonstrate that you've into the subject before asking. That's all, thanks. --CaC 174.52.224.148 (talk) 19:38, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- While I do appreciate that WP:NOTAFORUM and these items aren't significant enough for this overview page, recent news indicates that various temperatures seem to have suited trees, but it's a while since we've been in this situation, and there could be some jumps ahead. Not all humans might like such changes. . . dave souza, talk 20:28, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- See Talk:Global_warming/FAQ. In particular, Q20 deals with the fallacy of the "optimal" temperature. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 21:06, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
Record low temperatures at global warming summit
Could we include this reference in the article:
http://theweek.com/article/index/210181/irony-alert-the-unusually-chilly-global-warming-summit
"As negotiators from nearly 200 countries met in Cancun to strategize ways to keep the planet from getting hotter, the temperature in the seaside Mexican city plunged to a 100-year record low of 54° F."
SuzBenson (talk) 04:41, 11 December 2010 (UTC)
- And how would the temperature in a single city on a single day have any relevance to an article about long-term global temperature trends? --CurtisSwain (talk) 05:53, 11 December 2010 (UTC)
Still No Adequate Representation of Skeptical Perspectives In This Article
Every now and then I check back to this article to see if the "Editors" have allowed any skeptical information to creep into the article. Unfortunately, this article is still lacking any serious acknowledgment of the skeptical perspective.
The only times the skeptical perspective is even mentioned it is at the end of the article and couched in the fact that skeptical scientists are "funded" by the oil industry. Well, they aren't ALL funded by the oil industry. And sadly, there is no mention of the fact that many of the advocates' funding comes from government sources that would benefit from increasing regulation on energy production.
In the past, I have suggested that the folks who have editorial control over this page would be more intellectually honest if they would include a prominent skeptic who could negotiate a more balanced perspective. My suggestions were deleted by some ambitious editor. I suppose it was vandalism of some sort.
So, here I am again, pushing the idea of AT LEAST INCLUDING someone from the skeptical side of the aisle who could provide proper balance. I mean, are you people so threatened that you can't even listen to the other side?
Now, there is plenty of precedence on Wikipedia for including alternate perspectives in the presentation of controversial subjects (even when the alternate view has it's own article). Some examples:
- If you look at the page for Creationism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creationism), the article is fairly balanced between explaining the views that support and those that differ. The article explains the sources of various perspectives on the issue. There is also an article for Natural Selection (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_Selection) - so, there is precedence for including the contrarian view even if there is an article dedicated to the contrarian view.
- The page for American Exceptionalism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_exceptionalism) includes the counter-argument for American Exceptionalism in the second paragraph. So, that's very prominent.
- The third paragraph of the article on Animal Testing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_testing) includes the perspectives of both those who favor the practice as well as those who oppose it.
I propose that the Global Warming article would be stronger if skeptical perspectives were given proper treatment. Unfortunately, I expect that some "editor" will simple delete this suggestion as irrelevant. And of course, that would be dishonest. Mcoers (talk) 04:14, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- You don't have a reliable source or a specific piece of text to add, removed, or change. Therefore what you have isn't a "proposal" in the sense leading towards an edit to the article, but a "request." I'm sure someone will disagree with your request, but in my opinion ignoring it would be preferable giving your comment's lack of good faith. --CaC 174.52.224.148 (talk) 05:13, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- The problem in the case of this article is that the editorial process is controlled by people who delete all information that doesn't support their political cause. So, in this case, the proposal is to add qualified "skeptical" reviewers to the process so that people who do propose legitimately sourced information can have it reviewed in a process that is actually democratic. Rather than the current process which is terribly flawed.
- In this case, I properly sourced the issue of providing alternative points of view within Wikipedia articles. So, no, it's not in bad faith. It's presented here in the context of the circumstances where information is systematically deleted if it doesn't support the cause of global warming. In this case, we can't improve the article until we improve the review process for making edits. Mcoers (talk) 05:20, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
Proposed Change to the First Paragraph of Global Warming Article
Back in January of this year, I proposed the following change to the Global Warming Article. At the time, it was swept under the carpet despite a significant level of support from other Wikipedia editors who are blocked from making edits to the Article. I would like to re-propose this edit in light of my previous suggestion that we allow Skeptical perspectives to be included in the article:
Begin Proposal
Global warming is a scientific theory that became popular in the 1980s to explain the observed increase in global temperature. The theory was proposed as a human-caused phenomenon, and is often referred to as Anthropomorphic Global Warming (AGW). Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of the 20th century. However, the most recent decade has seen temperature declines in North America, Australia, and Europe. As a result, the controversy over human-caused global warming has increased. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), The University of East Anglia, the National Academy of Sciences, and dozens of other education and governmental institutions have recently come under increased scrutiny as revelations of missing source data and allegations of fraud revealed in the "Climategate" scandal have called some of the fundamental assumptions made by leading AGW scientists into doubt. Sources to cite:
Source to cite to substantiate the fact of decreasing N. American temperatures over the last decade:
Source to cite to substantiate the fact of decreasing European temperatures over the last 8 years (Compare Seasonal Averages):
- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2001/winter/averages.html
- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2009/winter/averages.html
Source to cite to substantiate the fact of decreasing Australian temperatures over the last decade:
Sources to substantiate the fact of increasing public scrutiny:
- Time Magazine: http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1929071_1929070_1945175,00.html
- The Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/04/AR2009120404511.html?hpid=topnews
- The Times: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7009081.ece
Sources to cite to substantiate the initiation of fraud investigations:
- United Kingdom Parliament: http://www.parliament.uk/parliamentary_committees/science_technology/s_t_pn14_100122.cfm
- Penn State press release regarding an investigation into Michael Mann: http://www.ems.psu.edu/sites/default/files/u5/Mann_Public_Statement.pdf
- Washington Times: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/dec/02/universities-take-action-on-climategate/
- Source to cite to substantiate the fact of the Climategate scandal: http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=803
Add Sections for:
- Climategate
- Decreasing Temperatures
- Global Warming Industry
- Climate Change Throughout History
- Opposing theories about CO2 and it’s effect on the climate
Leaked emails have surfaced showing leading proponents of AGW theory to have manipulated data and taken actions to destroy raw data in an effort to thwart Freedom of Information Act Mcoers (talk) 05:41, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
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