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Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum

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This page lists public and mock opinion polls that were conducted relating to the Scottish independence referendum, 2014.

Results of 55 polls to April 2014 from UKPollingReport

Public opinion polls

Overview

Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling showed support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population, a slight decline from 2007, when the Scottish National Party (SNP) first formed the Scottish Government.[1] To date there has been no poll evidence of majority support for independence, although the share "vehemently opposed to independence" has declined.[1] Support for independence increased after December 2013, although there is disagreement between the pollsters as to the state of public opinion.[2] Professor Curtice has observed that ICM, Panelbase and Survation show higher yes support and TNS BMRB, YouGov and Ipsos Mori show less support for independence.[2] Polls in March and April showed opposition to independence at an average of 55% (excluding don't knows), compared to 61% in the period before Christmas 2013.[3]

Methodology

Polls have been conducted in two main formats, either asking a straight yes or no question on independence, or including some form of increased devolution as a third option. The wording of the question has also differed. The first poll to use the formulation "Should Scotland be an independent country?" was the Angus Reid survey published on 3 February 2013.[citation needed]

Only polling companies that abide by the rules of the British Polling Council are shown here. The preamble to the referendum question varies between different polling companies and clients. The most recently used preamble by each polling company is:

  • Angus Reid: "As you may know, a referendum will take place in Scotland in the autumn of 2014. The referendum question proposed by the Scottish Government reads as follows: 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' If this referendum were held today, how would you vote?"
  • ICM: "As you may know, a referendum on independence will be held in Scotland on 18th September 2014. Voters will be asked, 'Should Scotland be an independent country'. Do you think you will vote 'Yes' or 'No'?"
  • Ipsos MORI: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
    Respondents are asked how they would vote if the referendum was held today.
  • Panelbase: "There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on the 18 September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?"
    Headline figures by Panelbase are based on those very likely to vote in the referendum.
  • Survation: "In the referendum voters will be asked "Should Scotland be an independent country?". If this referendum were held today, do you think you would vote "Yes" or "No".
    Headline results are based on those who will vote in the referendum.
  • TNS BMRB: "There will be a referendum on Scottish independence on the 18 September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?"
  • YouGov: "If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland's future and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Scotland be an independent country?'"

Two option polling

2014

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead
25–28 Apr YouGov/Channel 4 1,208 37% 51% 12% 14%
14–16 Apr ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,004 39% 42% 19% 3%
11–15 Apr Survation/Sunday Post 1,001 38% 46% 16% 8%
4–9 Apr Panelbase/YesScotland 1,024 40% 45% 15% 5%
4–7 Apr Survation/Daily Record 1,002 37% 47% 16% 10%
28 Mar – 4 Apr Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,025 41% 46% 14% 5%
21 Mar – 2 Apr TNS BMRB 988 29% 41% 30% 12%
20–24 Mar YouGov/Times 1,072 37% 52% 11% 15%
17–21 Mar ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,010 39% 46% 15% 7%
18 Mar Release of Scottish Labour Devolution Commission Report
7–14 Mar Panelbase/Newsnet Scotland 1,036 40% 45% 15% 5%
26 Feb – 9 Mar TNS BMRB 1,019 28% 42% 30% 14%
6–7 Mar Survation/Daily Record/Better Nation 1,002 39% 48% 13% 9%
24–28 Feb YouGov/Scottish Sun 1,257 35% 53% 12% 18%
20–25 Feb IpsosMORI/STV 1,001 29% 55% 16% 26%
18–21 Feb Panelbase/Scottish National Party 1,022 37% 47% 16% 10%
17–21 Feb ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,004 37% 49% 14% 12%
17–18 Feb Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,005 38% 47% 16% 9%
13 Feb Chancellor of the Exchequer's speech on currency union
29 Jan–6 Feb Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,012 37% 49% 14% 12%
28 Jan–6 Feb TNS BMRB 996 29% 42% 29% 13%
3–5 Feb YouGov/Sun 1,047 34% 52% 14% 18%
29–31 Jan Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,010 32% 52% 16% 20%
21–27 Jan YouGov 1,192 33% 52% 15% 19%
21–24 Jan ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,004 37% 44% 19% 7%
14–20 Jan TNS BMRB 1,054 29% 42% 29% 13%
3–10 Jan TNS BMRB/BBC Scotland 1,008 28% 42% 30% 14%

2013

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead
3–10 Dec TNS BMRB 1,055 27% 41% 33% 14%
6–9 Dec YouGov/Times 1,074 33% 52% 15% 19%
29 Nov–5 Dec Ipsos MORI/STV News 1,006 31% 55% 14% 24%
26 Nov Release of Scotland's Future
20–27 Nov TNS BMRB 1,004 26% 42% 32% 16%
12–20 Nov Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,006 38% 47% 15% 9%
23–30 Oct TNS BMRB 1,010 25% 43% 32% 18%
17–24 Oct Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,008 37% 45% 17% 8%
25 Sep – 2 Oct TNS BMRB 1,004 25% 44% 31% 19%
13–16 Sep YouGov/Times 1,139 32% 52% 13% 20%
9–15 Sep Ipsos MORI/STV News 1,000 30% 57% 14% 27%
10–13 Sep ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,002 32% 49% 19% 17%
30 Aug – 5 Sep Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,002 37% 47% 16% 10%
23–28 Aug Panelbase/Scottish National Party 1,043 44% 43% 13% 1%
21–27 Aug TNS BMRB 1,017 25% 47% 28% 22%
19–22 Aug YouGov/Devo Plus 1,171 29% 59% 10% 30%
16 Aug Angus Reid/Daily Express 549 34% 47% 19% 13%
17–24 July Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,001 37% 46% 17% 9%
10–16 May Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,004 36% 44% 20% 8%
29 Apr – 5 May Ipsos MORI/The Times 1,001 28% 57% 15% 29%
20 Mar – 2 Apr TNS BMRB 1,002 30% 51% 19% 21%
18–22 Mar Panelbase/Sunday Times 885 36% 46% 18% 10%
20–28 Feb TNS BMRB/Scottish CND 1,001 33% 52% 15% 19%
4–9 Feb Ipsos MORI/The Times 1,003 32% 52% 16% 20%
30 Jan – 1 Feb Angus Reid 1,003 32% 47% 20% 15%
11–21 Jan Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,004 34% 47% 19% 13%
3–9 Jan TNS BMRB 1,012 28% 48% 24% 20%
3–4 Jan Angus Reid 573 32% 50% 16% 18%

2012

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead
22–24 Oct YouGov/DC Thomson 1,004 29% 55% 14% 26%
9–19 Oct Panelbase/Sunday Times 972 37% 45% 17% 8%
15 Oct Edinburgh Agreement (2012)
8–15 Oct Ipsos MORI/The Times 1,003 30% 58% 12% 28%
26 Sep – 4 Oct TNS BMRB 995 28% 53% 19% 25%
17–20 Jun YouGov/Fabian Society 1,029 30% 54% 16% 24%
7–14 Jun Ipsos MORI/The Times/The Sun 1,005 32% 55% 13% 20%
27–29 Jan Ipsos MORI/The Times/The Sun 1,005 37% 50% 13% 13%
9–11 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,002 33% 53% 14% 20%

2011

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead
24–31 Aug TNS BMRB/The Herald 1,007 39% 38% 23% 1%
25–31 May TNS BMRB/The Herald 1,022 37% 45% 18% 8%
5 May Scottish Parliament general election, 2011

Three option polling

Date
published		 Polling organisation/client Independence Devolution Max Status Quo Undecided Ref.
6 January 2014 YouGov 30% 32% 29% 9% [4]
26 October 2012 YouGov 23% 41% 25% 11% [5]
14 June 2012 Ipsos MORI 27% 41% 29% 4% [6]
13 January 2012 ICM 26% 26% 33% 10% [6]
1 November 2011 TNS BMRB 28% 33% 29% 10% [6]

Polling breakdowns

Polling has indicated high support for independence among voters under the age of 55 and voters from economically deprived areas, compared to high support for the Union among voters over the age of 55 and voters living in affluent areas.[7] Surveys have also suggested men are more in favour of independence than are women,[8] though the gap has begun to close in more recent polling.[9] Working class voters remain the most amenable to independence.[10]

In June 2013, a poll of over 1,000 14–17 year olds conducted by the University of Edinburgh found that 20.9% supported independence, 60.3% supported the Union, and 18.8% were undecided.[11][12] Only 17% of the teenagers' households said they would vote yes in the referendum, however, which led the Newsnet Scotland website to question the accuracy of the opinion poll.[13] In September 2013, a survey of over 11,000 Aberdeenshire schoolchildren eligible to vote in the referendum returned 75.5% against independence, with 19 out of 20 schools involved voting 'no'.[14][15]

A poll by Survation in April 2014 suggested that a high turnout in the referendum is likely.[3] 75% of respondents that they were certain to vote in the referendum, compared to 63% for the next United Kingdom general election.[3] The 2013 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey found that yes voters were slightly more likely to turnout (90%) than no voters (86%).[3]

Polling on individual topics

Opinion polling has shown a majority in favour of giving control of welfare policy to the Scottish Parliament.[16][17][18][19]

Early in 2013, an opinion poll commissioned by the Press and Journal found only 8% of people in Shetland and Orkney supported the islands themselves becoming independent countries from the United Kingdom, with 82% against.[20]

Hypothetical situations

Opinion polls have also asked for attitudes in various hypothetical situations, such as whether voters believe the Conservatives or Labour are likely to win the next United Kingdom general election, which is due to be held in May 2015.[21][22] An ICM poll in April 2014 found that the no lead would be 8 points (44–36) if voters thought Labour would win, while the no lead would be 1 point (42–41) if they thought the Conservatives would win.[22] Other hypothetical scenarios include if voters thought if the UK was likely to leave the European Union,[23] and if people believed independence would make them £500 better or worse off per year.[24] In August 2013, a Panelbase poll commissioned by pro-independence blog Wings Over Scotland asked voters various questions, such as whether they would vote to join the Union in the hypothetical scenario that Scotland was already an independent country.[25] 18% of voters said they would join the Union, whereas 55% of voters said they would choose for Scotland to remain independent.[25]

Private polling

In June 2013, private research conducted on behalf of Yes Scotland reportedly showed "evidence of growing support for independence" among women and young people, based on "a sample several times the size of a conventional poll" and "a well-designed series of questions building on a rolling monthly basis going back to last January".[26] Better Together demanded that a full report of the research should be published, but Yes Scotland refused to publish it on the basis that private research is not covered by British Polling Council regulations.[27] The SNP researched voting intentions for the referendum while canvassing in Aberdeen Donside for the 2013 by-election; their survey showed 34% of people intending to vote for independence, 29% of people intending to vote for the Union and 37% undecided.[28] The SNP also researched voting intentions for the referendum before the Cowdenbeath by-election, 2014.[29]

A poll by the Scottish Tourism Alliance of members attending its annual conference in March 2014 found 60% would vote no and 32% would vote yes.[30]

The Communication Workers Union (CWU) conducted two polls in April 2014, showing that 60% of its Scottish members would vote 'no', with 26.3% saying 'yes'.[31]

School, College and University surveys

Schools, colleges and universities across Scotland have conducted polls and mock referenda to gauge the opinion of students.

Mock referenda

2014

Date(s)
conducted		 Organisation Votes cast Yes No Lead
1 May 2014 University of Aberdeen[32] 1098 36% 64% 28%
April 2014 City of Glasgow College[citation needed] 1070 53% 47% 6%
April 2014 Wick High School[33] ? 33% 67% 34%
24 April 2014 University of Strathclyde[34] 853 45% 55% 10%
April 2014 Forres Academy[34] ? 28% 72% 44%
April 2014 Millburn Academy[35] ~900 38% 62% 24%
4 April 2014 Hazlehead Academy[36] 263 30% 70% 40%
4 April 2014 Kinlochleven High School[37] 150 38% 62% 24%
2 April 2014 Annan Academy[38] 304 30% 70% 40%
March 2014 Harlaw Academy[34] 690 24% 76% 52%
March 2014 Plockton High School[39] 265 59% 41% 18%
March 2014 Ross High School[40] ? 35% 65% 30%
March 2014 University of Strathclyde (Islamic Societies)[41] ? 68% 32% 36%
March 2014 Kirkwall Grammar School and Stromness Academy[42][43] 357 25% 75% 50%
March 2014 Glasgow Caledonian University[41][44] ~1500 37% 63% 26%
5 March 2014 Dornoch Academy[45] 236 59% 41% 18%
February 2014 University of Dundee[46] 319 41% 59% 18%

2013

Date(s)
conducted		 Organisation Votes cast Yes No Lead
22 November 2013 Nairn Academy[47] 491 28% 71% 42%
30 October 2013 Balfron High School[48] 886 32% 68% 36%
17 September 2013 Banff Academy[49] 751 35% 65% 30%
17 September 2013 Inverurie Academy[50] 806 31% 69% 38%
17 September 2013 Fraserburgh Academy[51] 935 23% 77% 54%
17 September 2013 Ellon Academy[52] 893 29% 71% 42%
April 2013 Napier University[53] 569 30% 70% 40%
February 2013 University of Glasgow[54] 2,518 38% 62% 24%

2012

Date(s)
conducted		 Organisation Votes cast Yes No Lead
October 2012 Madras College[55] 961 28% 72% 44%

Opinion polls

2014

Date(s)
conducted		 Organisation Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead
17 April 2014 University of Strathclyde[56] 94 52% 37% 11% 15%
April 2014 Glasgow Clyde College [57] 321 44% 39% 17% 5%
20 February 2014 Glasgow Caledonian University [58] ~100 62% 18% 20% 44%
11 February 2014 University of Strathclyde[41][56] 118 47% 40% 13% 7%
January 2014 Ayrshire College [59] ~110 46% 43% 11% 3%

2013

Date(s)
conducted		 Organisation Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead
16 December 2013 University of Strathclyde[56] 47 67% 24% 9% 43%
18 November 2013 University of Strathclyde[56] 66 61% 24% 15% 37%

Polling in the rest of the United Kingdom

Opinion polls have also been conducted in the rest of the United Kingdom in relation to the Scottish independence referendum.

A February 2012 opinion poll in Wales showed a rise in support for stronger powers for its National Assembly if Scotland should choose to be independent.[60] A poll of Welsh voters in April 2014 found 62% were opposed to Scottish independence, with 16% in favour.[61]

YouGov have conducted some polls in the rest of the United Kingdom asking whether an independent Scotland should be allowed to form a currency union with them. In November 2013, 43% opposed a currency union and 38% supported it.[62] In February 2014, after George Osborne said that a currency union would not be allowed, opposition to a currency union increased to 58%.[62] A further poll in April 2014 found that 53% of respondents were opposed to a currency union, with 26% in favour.[63] An opinion poll commissioned by the SNP in December 2013 found that 71% of respondents in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland agreed that "if independence does happen [...] Scotland and the rest of the UK should continue using the pound in an agreed sterling area".[64]

Polls in both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom by Panelbase have shown majority support for a televised debate between British Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond[65][66]

A poll of FTSE 100 company chairmen found that 65% believed Scottish independence would be bad for business, while 24% believed it would be good.[67]

References

  1. ^ a b "Q&A: Scottish independence row". BBC News. BBC. 17 January 2012. Retrieved 19 January 2012.
  2. ^ a b Curtice, John (24 April 2014). "Scottish independence: Depending on the pollster, it looks like a photo finish". The Independent. Retrieved 25 April 2014.
  3. ^ a b c d Eichhorn, Jan (1 May 2014). "Who will turn up and who will stay home? The potential impact of differences in turnout". What Scotland Thinks. Retrieved 2 May 2014.
  4. ^ The Herald, 6 January 2014
  5. ^ Bargeton, Steve (26 October 2012). "Courier poll a blow to SNP's independence hopes". The Courier. DC Thomson. Retrieved 26 October 2012.[dead link]
  6. ^ a b c "UK Polling Report". UK Polling Report. Retrieved 11 October 2012.
  7. ^ "Support for independence bounces back". 13 February 2013. Retrieved 13 February 2013.
  8. ^ "Indyref poll: gap narrows to 10 points, but women retreat". 2013-03-24. Retrieved 2013-04-01.
  9. ^ "47% say "Yes" – Scottish independence might be a closer call than we think". 26 January 2014. Retrieved 11 February 2014.
  10. ^ "Momentum is now with the Yes campaign". Morning Star. 11 February 2014. Retrieved 11 February 2014.
  11. ^ Nelson, Fraser (7 June 2013). "Alex Salmond's dream of a separate Scotland is rapidly falling apart". The Daily Telegraph.
  12. ^ "Scottish independence: Study suggests most 16/17 year olds would vote 'no'". 2 June 2013. Retrieved 8 June 2013.
  13. ^ "Just how reliable is the teenage independence poll?". newsnetscotland.com. 4 June 2013. Retrieved 22 April 2014.
  14. ^ "Scottish independence polls blow for SNP". The Scotsman. Johnston Publishing. 19 September 2013.
  15. ^ "Aberdeenshire Schools Referendum on Scottish Independence". 30 September 2013.
  16. ^ "YouGov/Times Survey Results" (PDF). 16 September 2013. Retrieved 4 February 2014.
  17. ^ "Support for Scottish independence at lowest level since devolution". 23 January 2013. Retrieved 4 February 2014.
  18. ^ "New poll shows a majority want all financial and welfare decisions to be made in Scotland". 22 March 2013. Retrieved 4 February 2014.
  19. ^ . 9 August 2013 http://www.panelbase.com/news/WingsOverScotlandScottishPoll090813.pdf. Retrieved 4 February 2014. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  20. ^ "Northern Isles are Scottish, say islanders". www.newsnetscotland.com. 17 April 2013. Retrieved 2 September 2013.
  21. ^ "Tory win 'influences Scottish vote'". Belfast Telegraph. INM. 21 October 2012. Retrieved 21 October 2012.
  22. ^ a b Whitaker, Andrew (21 April 2014). "Scots 'are driven to vote Yes by Tory success'". The Scotsman. Johnston Publishing. Retrieved 21 April 2014.
  23. ^ "Poll: Possible EU withdrawal could boost independence support". 19 May 2013. Retrieved 21 May 2013.
  24. ^ Study – Scottish Social Attitudes 2011. ScotCen.
  25. ^ a b "In, out, and shaking it all about". 8 August 2013. Retrieved 11 February 2014.
  26. ^ "Yes Scotland says women and young shifting to independence". 17 June 2013. Retrieved 22 June 2013.
  27. ^ "Yes camp faces calls to publish 2014 poll results". The Herald. Herald & Times Group. 18 June 2013. Retrieved 22 June 2013.
  28. ^ "By-election indyref survey: Yes 34, No 29, Don't know 37". 21 June 2013. Retrieved 22 June 2013.
  29. ^ "Labour supporters "susceptible to voting Yes"". www.snp.org. Scottish National Party. 24 January 2014. Retrieved 6 April 2014.
  30. ^ Ferguson, Brian (13 March 2014). "Scots tourism industry rejects independence in vote". The Scotsman. Johnston Publishing. Retrieved 22 April 2014.
  31. ^ "Another trade union backs Scotland's place in the UK". 27 April 2014.
  32. ^ "This week in the Scottish #indyref". The Guardian. 2 May 2014.
  33. ^ "Wick High School's Mock Referendum Vote – David Stewart's motion". www.himsps.org.uk. The Office of Rhoda Grant MSP & David Stewart MSP. 1 May 2014. Retrieved 1 May 2014.
  34. ^ a b c "Another student referendum victory for Better Together". www.bettertogether.net. Better Together. 24 April 2014. Retrieved 25 April 2014.
  35. ^ "Millburn pupils back union in school's mock referendum". Inverness Courier. 1 April 2014. Retrieved 14 April 2014.
  36. ^ "Mock Independence Referendum Result". 22 April 2014.
  37. ^ "Kinlochleven pupils take part in Scottish Independence mock referendum". www.highland.gov.uk. Highland Council. 4 April 2014. Retrieved 14 April 2014.
  38. ^ "MP welcomes Annan Academy Referendum Result". www.davidmundell.com. David Mundell MP. 2 April 2014. Retrieved 20 April 2014.
  39. ^ "Ross pupils say 'yes' in mock indy referendum". North Star News. 24 March 2014.
  40. ^ "Pupils vote in mock Scottish referendum for School Report". BBC News. BBC. 27 March 2014.
  41. ^ a b c "Scottish independence: Glasgow students 'vote' on the referendum". BBC News. BBC. 10 March 2014. Retrieved 20 April 2014.
  42. ^ "Pupils say 'no' in mock independence referendum". 28 March 2014.
  43. ^ "Mock referendum at Stromness Academy". 31 March 2014.
  44. ^ "Glasgow Caledonian students say No to independence". The Scotsman. Johnston Publishing.
  45. ^ "Dornoch Academy Referendum". www.highland.gov.uk. Highland Council. 5 March 2014. Retrieved 14 April 2014.
  46. ^ "Dundee students vote against Scottish independence". DUSA Media. Dundee University Students' Association. 18 February 2014. Retrieved 14 April 2014.
  47. ^ "Nairn Academy Referendum".
  48. ^ "Balfron pupils debate Scottish Independence". Milngavie and Bearsden Herald. 30 October 2013. Retrieved 30 April 2014.
  49. ^ "Schools Referendum on Scottish independence" (PDF).
  50. ^ "Schools Referendum on Scottish independence" (PDF).
  51. ^ "Schools Referendum on Scottish independence" (PDF).
  52. ^ "Schools Referendum on Scottish Independence" (PDF). {{cite web}}: line feed character in |title= at position 22 (help)
  53. ^ Students reject question of Scottish independence. The Times (18 April 2013).
  54. ^ Carrell, Severin (22 February 2013). "Glasgow students reject independence in mock referendum by large margin". The Guardian.
  55. ^ "Independence Vote in Madras".
  56. ^ a b c d "Strath Indy Ref".
  57. ^ "Glasgow Clyde students back Yes in #indyref Vote". 8 April 2014. Retrieved 14 April 2014.
  58. ^ "Indyref Panel Discussion".
  59. ^ "Kilwinning students run mock independence referendum".
  60. ^ Matt Withers. "Voters would say "No" to an independent Wales: poll – Wales News – News". WalesOnline. Retrieved 11 October 2012.
  61. ^ Henry, Graham (19 April 2014). "Wales says no to Scottish independence: our exclusive YouGov poll". www.walesonline.co.uk. Media Wales. Retrieved 20 April 2014.
  62. ^ a b "Opposition to Currency Union Rises Sharply".
  63. ^ McNab, Scott (11 April 2014). "Non-Scots against independence currency union idea". The Scotsman. Johnston Publishing. Retrieved 11 April 2014.
  64. ^ "Rest of UK backs independent Scotland keeping the pound, poll shows". 29 December 2013. Retrieved 31 December 2013.
  65. ^ Gordon, Tom (5 January 2014). "Poll reveals Scots and English want Salmond and Cameron to debate indyref". The Herald. Herald & Times Group. Retrieved 25 April 2014.
  66. ^ "Scottish independence: Cameron again rejects Salmond TV debate challenge". BBC News. BBC. 5 January 2014. Retrieved 5 January 2014.
  67. ^ "Majority of FTSE chairmen oppose Scottish independence - poll". www.uk.reuters.com. Reuters. 24 February 2014. Retrieved 22 April 2014.
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