2024 South African general election

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2024 South African general election
South Africa
← 2019 2024 2029 →
All 400 seats in the National Assembly
201 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
ANC Cyril Ramaphosa 230
DA[a] John Steenhuisen 84
EFF Julius Malema 44
IFP[a] Velenkosini Hlabisa 14
FF Plus[a] Pieter Groenewald 10
ACDP[a] Kenneth Meshoe 4
UDM Bantu Holomisa 2
ATM Vuyolwethu Zungula 2
Good Patricia de Lille 2
NFP Vacant 2
AIC Mandla Galo 2
COPE Mosiuoa Lekota 2
PAC Mzwanele Nyhontso 1
Al Jama-ah Ganief Hendricks 1
Incumbent President
Cyril Ramaphosa
ANC

General elections will be held in South Africa in 2024 to elect a new National Assembly as well as the provincial legislature in each province. These will be the seventh general election held under the conditions of universal adult suffrage since the end of the apartheid era in 1994. The new National Council of Provinces will be elected at the first sitting of each provincial legislature. Ever since the first post-apartheid election in 1994, the African National Congress has held a majority of seats in the National Assembly.

The date of the elections will be set by the incumbent President, Cyril Ramaphosa, and must be within 90 days of the end of the term of the current Parliament, in mid May 2024.[1]

Background

In the 2021 municipal elections, the African National Congress received less than 50% of the vote for the first time nationwide in any election since the end of apartheid.[2] The party also lost support in the key metros of Tshwane (Pretoria), Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and eThekwini (Durban). The ANC retained control of eThekwini while the Democratic Alliance managed to take control of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni through a majority coalition and a minority coalition respectively in addition to forming a majority coalition government in Tshwane, which it had governed since 2016.[3]

In early 2023, the ANC and Economic Freedom Fighters formed a coalition in Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni where the two parties hold MMC positions whilst electing a mayor from a minority party.[4] In April 2023, noting the prospects of an ANC/EFF national coalition, the DA leader John Steenhuisen called for "like-minded" parties to join together to prevent a "doomsday coalition".[5]

In July 2023 a joint statement by the Democratic Alliance (DA), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus), the United Independent Movement (UIM) and the Spectrum National Party (SNP) was released announcing a convention on 16 and 17 August proposing a national coalition in the event of a hung parliament.[6] On 17 August 2023 a pre-election agreement called the Multi-Party Charter was signed between the parites as well as the Independent South African National Civic Organisation, with the aim of presenting a united front against the two decade rule of the African National Congress (ANC) party, and the recent rise of the controversial Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party.[7] On 7 October 2023, the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) announced it would be joining the charter increasing the charter's seat count from 108 to 112 in the 400 seat National Assembly.[8]

Electoral system

South Africa has a parliamentary system of government. The President of South Africa is unusual among heads of state of countries with a parliamentary system in that the President is also the head of government, with executive functions.

In June 2020 the Constitutional Court ruled in New Nation Movement NPC v President of the Republic of South Africa that the Electoral Act was unconstitutional to the extent that it did not allow independents to contest national and provincial elections.[9] Since the first elections held under universal suffrage, 400 members elected were elected to the National Assembly by a system of proportional representation with a closed list approach. Two hundred members were elected from national party lists, while the other 200 were elected from provincial party lists in each of the nine provinces. The national list seats were awarded by subtracting seats won at the provincial level from each party's national allocation to generate a maximally proportional result. The Droop quota variant of the largest remainder method was used to allocate seats at both the national and provincial levels.[10] Provincial legislatures were also elected by a system of proportional representation with closed party lists.

In February 2021 Home Affairs Minister Aaron Motsoaledi appointed a ministerial advisory committee led by Valli Moosa to recommend a new electoral system.[11] While the committee was divided, a slim majority of members favoured a hybrid system with half of the seats elected in constituencies and the other half elected through party lists.[12]

On 17 April 2023 president Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Electoral Amendment Bill into law allowing independent candidates to stand for election to the National Assembly and provincial legislatures while keeping the proportional representation with closed lists. Two hundred members will be elected from national party lists, while the remaining 200 seats will be contested by political parties and independent candidates in each of the nine provinces. In provincial legislatures, the single-tier multimember proportional system will continue to apply with political parties and independent candidates contesting for seats. Voters will receive three ballot papers as opposed to two in previous elections; the first ballot will be to elect the 200 members of the National Assembly only contested by political parties and the second ballot will be to elect the remaining 200 members of the National Assembly which will be contested by political parties and independent candidates in each of the nine provinces while the third ballot will be to elect members of the provincial legislatures with political parties and independent candidates as well.[13]

Following the election, the President of South Africa will be elected by the National Assembly. Although the President is required to be a member of the National Assembly at the time of election, a person that is elected as President must resign their seat in order to assume office.[14] The premiers of each province will also be elected by the respective provincial legislatures after the election.[10]

The National Council of Provinces (NCOP) comprises 90 members, ten elected by each of the provincial legislatures in proportion to the composition of the legislature. The NCOP members will be sworn in the day after the first sitting of the National Assembly.[10]

Issues

Energy crisis

Main article: South African energy crisis

Rolling blackouts, or "loadshedding", caused by problems with the state utility Eskom have been occurring since 2007, however the prevalence of blackouts has increased substantially since 2020.[15]

Cape independence

Main article: Cape independence

Various movements proposing Cape independence have existed since 2009 and the movement has only gained more traction since 2020.[16] Independent polling in August 2023 has found that 68% of adults in the Western Cape are in favour of holding a referendum on Cape independence, with 78% of self-reported DA voters and 81% of coloured voters supporting the idea. Additionally, outright support for secession stands at 58% overall, with 61% of DA voters, 72% of ANC voters, and 77% of coloured adults agreeing.[17]

In 2023 the Cape Independence Advocacy Group have requested that Alan Winde, the Western Cape premier, hold a referendum on Western Cape independence, a request which has been denied.[18] Accordingly the Referendum Party was formed in November 2023 as a single-issue political party contesting in the 2024 general election to pressure the Western Cape Democratic Alliance government into holding a referendum on Western Cape independence as part of any potential coalition agreement.[19]

Crime

Main article: Crime in South Africa

According to the South African Police Service Crime Statistics for Quarter 2 of the 2023/24 financial year, reported contact crimes (defined by SAPS as "crimes against the person") has increased by 3 391 (2.1%) compared to the previous quarter.[20] Recorded attempted murder illustrated the highest increase quarter-on-quarter, with 12.3%.[20] Total contact crimes reported for the quarter are 165,909. The murder rate, as of the release of this data correlates to 77 people per day. 160 cases of assault with the intent to do grievous bodily harm are reported each day.[21]

Devolution of policing

Over the last term of government, the devolution of policing power has become a key issue between the Western Cape Government and the Minister of Police, Bheki Cele.[22] The Western Cape Government argues that the Minister has the power to devolve policing, but the Minister denies having the power of devolution, saying that "the centralisation of the SAPS [is] in line with the Department [of Police's] constitutional mandate to prevent, combat and investigate crime..."[23] Section 205 of the Constitution of South Africa sets out policing policy in South Africa, noting that the police service "must be structured to function in national [and] provincial...spheres of government."[24] The Constitution gives provincial executives the power to monitor police conduct within their respective provinces, as well as the responsibility for policing functions in three cases; namely Chapter 11 of the Constitution, assigned to provincial government in terms of national legislation and allocated to it in national policing policy.[24]

Opinion polls

LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 South African General Election.
Polling Organisation Fieldwork Date Sample
Size 		ANC DA EFF IFP VF+ ACDP ActionSA Others Don't
Know[b] 		Lead
IRR Oct 2023 604 46.5% 26.1% 11.6% 9.4% — — — — N/A 20.4%
IPSOS Oct 2023 N/A 50% 18% 16% 5% 2% 1% 4% 4% N/A 32%
Social Research Foundation Oct 2023 1412 45% 31% 9% 6% — — — 9% N/A 14%
7 Oct 2023 The ACDP joins the Multi-Party Charter. The charter now holds 112 out of the 400-seat National Assembly.
Brenthurst Foundation/SABI 11 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 1,500 41% 23% 17% 7% 2% – 3% 4% 3% 18%
17 Jul 2023 The Multi-Party Charter is signed between the DA and 6 other parties holding 108 of 400 National Assembly seats.
Ipsos 1 Jun – 20 Jul 2023 3,600 43% 20% 18% 5% 2% 1% 4% 7% N/A 23%
Ipsos & Inclusive Society Institute Apr 2023 3,600 49.9% 23.6% 12.7% 4.4% — — 4.1% 15.2% N/A 26.3%
Social Research Foundation Mar 2023 1,517 45.9% 23.3% 8.4% 6.1% 2.2% 0.9% 3.1% 10.1% N/A 22.6%
Social Research Foundation 29 Aug 2022 3,204 52% 25% 11% — — — 5% 7% 27%
50% 25% 12% — — — 6% 7% 25%
Brenthurst Foundation 27 Oct – 10 Nov 2022 1,000 47.6% 24% 10.7% — — — 4% 12.2% N/A 23.6%
Rivonia Circle Sep – Oct 2022 2,000 41% 18% 15% — — — 6% 7% 13% 23%
Ipsos 14 May – 3 Jul 2022 3,600 42% 11% 9% 2% 2% 1% 3% 4% 26% 25%
2021 municipal elections 1 Nov 2021 N/A 47.52% 19.84% 10.54% 6.27% 2.32% 0.71% 1.82% 6.76% − 27.68%
Ipsos 1 Nov 2021 N/A 43.4% 24.2% 14.8% 1.9% 1.6% 0.9% 3.7% 9.5% 31% 19.2%
Ipsos Jul – Sep 2020 3,758 50% 16% 13% 2% 1% — — 2% 16% 34%
Ipsos 20 Sep – 8 Nov 2019 3,600 55% 13% 8% 2% 1% 1% — 3% 18% 42%
2019 general election 8 May 2019 N/A 57.5% 20.8% 10.8% 3.4% 2.4% 0.8% N/A 10.1% N/A 36.7%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d Part of the Multi-Party Charter
  2. ^ Includes Abstention and No answer responses

References

  1. ^ "Election season kicks off but no date yet". Business Day. 24 October 2023.
  2. ^ "A landmark as South Africa's ANC dips below 50% support". AP News. 5 November 2021. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  3. ^ Harper, Paddy. "Historic losses for ANC open new era in South African politics". Africanews. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  4. ^ "ANC and EFF partnership 'negotiating in good faith' to govern Gauteng metros". 702. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  5. ^ "DA to fight ANC-EFF 'doomsday coalition'". BusinessLIVE. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  6. ^ "Date set for DA 'moonshot pact' convention". The Mail & Guardian. 3 July 2023. Retrieved 3 August 2023.
  7. ^ Masuabi, Queenin (17 August 2023). "Multi-Party Charter for South Africa agrees on key power-sharing principles". Daily Maverick. Retrieved 18 October 2023.
  8. ^ Sithole, Siyabonga (8 October 2023). "Multiparty Charter welcomes ACDP into the fold". Independent Online. Retrieved 18 October 2023.
  9. ^ Mabuza, Ernest (11 June 2020). "Constitutional Court judgment opens door for independent candidates to stand for election". Sunday Times. Retrieved 7 July 2021.
  10. ^ a b c "Election for National Assembly". IFES Election Guide. Retrieved 4 January 2020.
  11. ^ "Ministerial Advisory Committee on the Electoral System hosts first consultative meeting". www.gov.za. Government of South Africa. 24 March 2021. Archived from the original on 9 July 2021. Retrieved 7 July 2021.
  12. ^ Kgosana, Caiphus; Khoza, Amanda (13 June 2021). "Advisory committee divided on which electoral system to adopt". Sunday Times. Retrieved 7 July 2021.(Subscription required.)
  13. ^ "What's new in the 2024 Elections?". Electoral Commission of South Africa. Retrieved 18 October 2023.
  14. ^ Paton, Carol; Quintal, Genevieve (22 May 2019). "Cyril Ramaphosa elected as president by National Assembly". BusinessDay. Retrieved 4 January 2020.(Subscription required.)
  15. ^ Energy, Hohm (12 May 2023). "Sponsored Content: Its now official: South Africa has now had more load shedding in 2023 to date than in 2022 combined". Daily Maverick. Retrieved 7 August 2023.
  16. ^ "Self-determination is the issue of the year in the Western Cape". Retrieved 4 January 2024.
  17. ^ "Polling Results August 2023". Retrieved 3 January 2024.
  18. ^ "Challenging political norms: Referendum Party vs DA in the Western Cape". BizNews. Retrieved 4 January 2024.
  19. ^ "Challenging political norms: Referendum Party versus DA in the Western Cape". BizNews. 26 November 2023. Retrieved 31 December 2023.
  20. ^ a b South African Police Service, 2023. Police Recorded Crime Statistics, Republic of South Africa: Second Quarter of 2023-2024 Financial Year (July 2023 to September 2023). Available at https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_documents/saps_stats.pdf Accessed on 03 January 2024
  21. ^ Society, Action (17 November 2023). "Cele and his management content with South Africans living in a slaughter house as bloodbath continues". Action Society. Retrieved 3 January 2024.
  22. ^ Charles, Marvin. "Cele says Western Cape govt's demand for devolution of police powers is just 'a lot of noise'". News24. Retrieved 3 January 2024.
  23. ^ Sokutu, Brian (10 September 2021). "Battle over devolution of Saps continues". The Citizen. Retrieved 3 January 2024.
  24. ^ a b Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1997. Available at: https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf. Accessed on 03 January 2024.
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