2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary
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78 Democratic National Convention delegates (67 pledged, 11 unpledged); The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
	Election results by county; Joe Biden Bernie Sanders

The 2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary took place on Tuesday, March 17, 2020, one of three states voting on the same day in the Democratic Party presidential primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The Arizona Presidential Preference Election is a closed election, with the state awarding 78 delegates, of which 67 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

The Associated Press declared Joe Biden the winner of the Arizona primary.^[1]

Procedure

Arizona is one of three states which held primaries on March 17, 2020, the others being Florida and Illinois.^[2]

Arizona mails ballots to voters on the Permanent Early Voting List. Ballots must have been received by 7:00 p.m. on March 17, 2020. In addition, some Arizona counties offered Early Voting Sites^[3] or Early Voting Centers,^[4] where any voter may walk in and vote in person, Monday - Friday, February 19 through March 13, 2020.

Voting took place throughout the state from 6:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. In the closed primary, candidates must meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 67 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention will be allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 67 pledged delegates, between three and six are allocated to each of the state's nine congressional districts and another nine are allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 14 at-large pledged delegates. These delegate totals do not account for pledged delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering.^[5]

Following the primary, district caucuses will be held on Saturday, April 18, 2020, to designate national convention district delegates, and the state convention and state committee meeting will subsequently be held in Phoenix on Saturday, May 16, 2020 to vote on the 14 pledged at-large and nine PLEO delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 67 pledged delegates Arizona sends to the national convention will be joined by 11 unpledged PLEO delegates (five members of the Democratic National Committee and six members of Congress, including one Senator and five U.S. Representatives).^[5]

Candidates

The following candidates appeared on the ballot in Arizona:^[6]

Running

Joe Biden
Roque De La Fuente III
Michael Ellinger
Tulsi Gabbard
Henry Hewes
Bernie Sanders

Withdrawn

Polling

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregation	Date updated	Dates polled	Joe Biden	Bernie Sanders	Tulsi Gabbard	Other/ Undecided^[c]
270 to Win	Mar 17, 2020	Mar 3–16, 2020	50.6%	29.4%	1.0%	19.0%
RealClear Politics	Mar 17, 2020	Mar 6–15, 2020	51.7%	33.7%	1.0%	13.6%
FiveThirtyEight	Mar 17, 2020	until Mar 16, 2020^[d]	51.6%	26.9%	1.1%	20.4%
Average			51.3%	30.0%	1.0%	17.7%

Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary
Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[e]	Margin of error	Joe Biden	Michael Bloomberg	Pete Buttigieg	Kamala Harris	Bernie Sanders	Elizabeth Warren	Andrew Yang	Other	Undecided
Swayable	Mar 16, 2020	1,167 (LV)	± 5.0%	53%	–	–	–	29%	–	–	19%^[f]	–
Marist/NBC News	Mar 10–15, 2020	523 (LV)	± 6.0%	53%	–	–	–	36%	–	–	8%^[g]	3%
Marist/NBC News	Mar 10–15, 2020	913 (RV)	± 4.5%	50%	–	–	–	37%	–	–	9%^[h]	5%
Monmouth University	Mar 11–14, 2020	373 (LV)	± 5.1%	51%	5%	3%	–	31%	3%	–	2%^[i]	5%
Latino Decisions/Univision/ Arizona State University	Mar 6–11, 2020	541 (LV)	± 4.2%	57%^[j]	–	–	–	38%^[j]	–	–	–	5%^[j]
Latino Decisions/Univision/ Arizona State University	Mar 6–11, 2020	541 (LV)	± 4.2%	51%	–	–	–	34%	–	–	6%^[k]	8%
	March 4–5, 2020	Bloomberg and Warren withdraw from the race
OH Predictive Insights	Mar 3–4, 2020	398 (LV)	± 4.91%	45%	12%	–	–	17%	13%	–	4%^[l]	9%
	March 1–2, 2020	Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race
	February 11, 2020	New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls
	Dec 3, 2019	Harris withdraws from the race
OH Predictive Insights	Oct 31 – Nov 8, 2019	260 (LV)	± 6.08%	29%	–	9%	5%	16%	18%	4%	19%^[m]	–
Emerson Polling	Oct 25–28, 2019	339	± 5.2%	28%	–	12%	4%	21%	21%	5%	7%^[n]	–
Siena Research/New York Times	Oct 13–26, 2019	209	–	24%	–	5%	3%	16%	15%	1%	1%^[o]	31%
Change Research	Sep 27–28, 2019	396 (LV)	–	15%	–	13%	4%	19%	35%	8%	7%^[p]	–
Bendixen&Amandi	Sep 9–12, 2019	250	± 4.3%	29%	–	5%	4%	18%	24%	2%	8%^[q]	10%
Zogby Analytics	May 23–29, 2019	197	± 7.0%	35%	–	6%	4%	16%	10%	0%	11%^[r]	–

Results

2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary^[7]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates^[8]
Joe Biden	268,029	43.70	38
Bernie Sanders	200,456	32.68	29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†)	35,537	5.79	0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)	24,868	4.05	0
Tulsi Gabbard	3,014	0.49	0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	1,921	0.31	0
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	754	0.12	0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	668	0.11	0
Roque De La Fuente III	628	0.10	0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	242	0.04	0
Henry Hewes	208	0.03	0
Michael A. Ellinger	184	0.03	0
Total	536,509^[s]	86.72%^[t]	67

†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

Notes

^ Warren withdrew on March 5, 2020, twelve days before the primary. Absentee and early voting had already occurred.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Candidate withdrew after early voting started, but before the date of the election.
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 18%
^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 7%
^ Gabbard with 2%; "Other" with 7%
^ Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; "Other" with <1%
^ ^a ^b ^c In a two-person race
^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 5%
^ "Another Candidate" with 4%
^ Booker, Castro and Klobuchar with 2%; Bennet, Gabbard, O'Rourke and Steyer with 1%; Delaney with 0%; Bullock and Williamson with no voters; other with 7%
^ Gabbard, Klobuchar and O'Rourke with 2%; Sestak with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 2%
^ Klobuchar with 1%; Booker, Gabbard and O'Rourke with 0%; others with 0%
^ O'Rourke with 3%; Booker, Castro, Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; Steyer with 0%
^ O'Rourke with 4%; Castro, Klobuchar and Williamson with 1%; someone else with 1%
^ Booker, Castro, Delaney, and O'Rourke with 2%; Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Inslee and Klobuchar with 0%
^ Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.
^ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer^[9]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.^[7]

References

^ "Arizona Election Results: Live Presidential Primary 2020". New York Times. Retrieved March 17, 2020.
^ Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
^ https://www.recorder.pima.gov/EarlyVotingSites
^ https://recorder.maricopa.gov/pdf/PPE2020EVSites.pdf
^ ^a ^b "Arizona Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. May 5, 2019. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
^ "Secretary of State—Running for Federal Office". Arizona Secretary of State.
^ ^a ^b "State of Arizona Official Canvass: 2020 Presidential Preference Election - Mar 17, 2020" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. 30 March 2020. Retrieved 14 October 2020.
^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Arizona Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
^ "Running for Federal Office, Arizona Secretary of State". azsos.gov. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.

External links

[1] Warren withdrew on March 5, 2020, twelve days before the primary. Absentee and early voting had already occurred.

[WithdrewBeforeST-8] Candidate withdrew after early voting started, but before the date of the election.

[undecided-9] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined

[trendline-10] FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.

[key-11] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[12] Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 18%

[13] Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 7%

[14] Gabbard with 2%; "Other" with 7%

[15] Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; "Other" with <1%

[two-person-16] In a two-person race

[17] Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 5%

[18] "Another Candidate" with 4%

[19] Booker, Castro and Klobuchar with 2%; Bennet, Gabbard, O'Rourke and Steyer with 1%; Delaney with 0%; Bullock and Williamson with no voters; other with 7%

[20] Gabbard, Klobuchar and O'Rourke with 2%; Sestak with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 2%

[21] Klobuchar with 1%; Booker, Gabbard and O'Rourke with 0%; others with 0%

[22] O'Rourke with 3%; Booker, Castro, Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; Steyer with 0%

[23] O'Rourke with 4%; Castro, Klobuchar and Williamson with 1%; someone else with 1%

[24] Booker, Castro, Delaney, and O'Rourke with 2%; Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Inslee and Klobuchar with 0%

[27] Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.

[29] Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer^[9]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.^[7]

[2] "Arizona Election Results: Live Presidential Primary 2020". New York Times. Retrieved March 17, 2020.

[FHQ-primarydates-3] Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 23, 2019.

[4] ttps://www.recorder.pima.gov/EarlyVotingSites

[5] ttps://recorder.maricopa.gov/pdf/PPE2020EVSites.pdf

[GP-6] "Arizona Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. May 5, 2019. Retrieved June 23, 2019.

[7] "Secretary of State—Running for Federal Office". Arizona Secretary of State.

[AZ-SOS-results-25] "State of Arizona Official Canvass: 2020 Presidential Preference Election - Mar 17, 2020" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. 30 March 2020. Retrieved 14 October 2020.

[26] "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Arizona Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved 4 July 2020.

[AZ-candidates-28] "Running for Federal Office, Arizona Secretary of State". azsos.gov. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.

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