Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

Add links
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Pokelova (talk | contribs) at 06:29, 25 June 2020 (Undid revision 964387834 by WikiKiwiNZ (talk)). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament (2017–present) in the lead up to the 2020 New Zealand general election. Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles.[1] The two regular polls are Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research, with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date. The current Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017. The 2020 New Zealand general election will take place on Saturday, 19 September 2020.

Party vote and key events

Graphical summary

The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received between less than 10.0% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 23 September 2017. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5).
Summary of poll results for parties that received less than 10.0% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5).

Individual polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties are the National Party (NAT), Labour Party (LAB), New Zealand First (NZF), Green Party (GRN), ACT, The Opportunities Party (TOP), Māori Party (MRI) and New Conservative (NCP).

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI NCP Lead
20–24 Jun 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 38 50 1.8 6 3.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 12
27 Apr–24 May 2020 Roy Morgan Research 894 26.5 56.5 2.5 7 3.5 1 1.5 – 30
22 May 2020 Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party and Leader of the Opposition.
16–20 May 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,003 29 59 2.9 4.7 2.2 0.5 1.2 0.4 30
8–16 May 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 30.6 56.5 2.7 5.5 1.8 0.1 0.9 1.0 25.9
14 May 2020 The lockdown ends and the 2020 Budget is delivered.
Apr 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 30.5 55 2.5 7 2.5 – – – 24.5
26 March 2020 New Zealand commences a nationwide lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mar 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 37 42.5 3 11.5 3.5 – – – 5.5
8–12 Feb 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,004 46 41 3.3 5 1.7 0.1 1.1 0.8 5
Feb 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 37 40.5 5 10.5 3.5 – – – 3.5
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 43.3 42.5 3.6 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8
28 Jan 2020 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces that the election will take place on 19 September 2020.
Jan 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 40 40 2.5 10.5 3 – – – Tie
23–27 Nov 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 46 39 4.3 7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 7
7–11 Nov 2019 YouGov/Stuff 1,005 38 41 8 8 2 1 1 – 3
5–9 Oct 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,008 47 40 4.2 7 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 7
2–9 Oct 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 43.9 41.6 4.0 6.3 1.4 1.1 0.7 1 2.3
20–24 Jul 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,003 45 43 3.3 6 1 0.5 1.1 0.8 2
4–8 Jun 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,002 44 42 5 6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 2
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 37.4 50.8 2.8 6.2 0.8 0.1 0.5 1 13.4
30 May 2019 The 2019 Budget is delivered.
6–10 Apr 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,009 40 48 4.3 6 0.7 – 0.5 0.4 8
15–23 Mar 2019 Business NZ Reid Research 1,000 41.3 49.6 2.3 3.9 – – – – 8.3
15 Mar 2019 Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49. Terror threat level is raised from low to high.
9–13 Feb 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 42 45 3 6 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 3
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 41.6 47.5 2.9 5.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 5.9
24–28 Nov 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,008 46 43 4 5 0.6 0.3 0.9 – 3
15–19 Oct 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 43 45 5 7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 2
2 Aug 2018 Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 45 42 5 6 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 3
21 Jun 2018 Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000[2] 45.1 42.6 2.4 5.7 0.2 1.6 0.9 1.1 2.5
19–23 May 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 45 43 4.2 5 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.2 2
17 May 2018 The 2018 Budget is delivered.
7–11 Apr 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 44 43 5 6 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.2 1
8 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[3]
27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[4]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 43 48 2.6 5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 5
13 Feb 2018 Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament.[5]
18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 44.5 42.3 3.8 6 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 2.2
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017 Roy Morgan Research – 40.5 37 8 10 0.5 – – – 3.5
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 46 39 5 7 0.1 1.2 0.9 – 7
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 887 40.5 39.5 5 10 0.5 2 1.5 – 1
26 Oct 2017 Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.[6]
2–15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 894 46 31 6.5 11 0.5 2 1.5 – 15
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result[7] N/A 44.4 36.9 7.2 6.3 0.5 2.4 1.2 0.2 7.6

UMR and Curia polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT Lead
26 May – 1 Jun 2020 UMR Research 30 54 5 4 – 24
21–27 April 2020 UMR Research 29 55 6 5 3 26
14 April 2020 Curia 31 49 6 9 5 18
8 April 2020 UMR Research 35 49 5 5 2 14
17 Feb 2020 UMR Research 38 42 6 9 3 4
2 Feb 2020 Curia 39 41 7 7 2 2
23 Jul 2019 UMR Research 38 42 – 9 – 4
9 Nov 2018 UMR Research 37 46 – – – 9
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result[7] 44.4 36.9 7.2 6.3 0.5 7.5

Preferred Prime Minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as Prime Minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

Individual polls

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Jacinda Ardern Todd Muller Simon Bridges Judith Collins Winston Peters James Shaw David Seymour Bill English Lead
20–24 Jun 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 54 13 0.4 2 2 – – – 41
26 May – 1 Jun 2020 UMR Research – 65 13 – – – – – – 52
22 May 2020 Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party.
16–20 May 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,003 63 0.2 5 3 1 0.1 0.4 0.1 58
8–16 May 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 59.5 – 4.5 3.1 – – – – 51
21–27 Apr 2020 UMR Research – 65 – 7 7 3 – – – 58
8–12 Feb 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,004 42 – 11 3 3 0.1 0.8 0.2 31
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 38.7 – 10.6 – – – – – 28.1
23–27 Nov 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 36 – 10 4 3 0.3 0.6 – 26
5–9 Oct 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,008 38 0.2 9 5 4 0.3 0.4 0.1 29
2–9 Oct 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 38.4 – 6.7 5.2 – – – – 31.7
20–24 Jul 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,003 41 0.1 6 6 2 – 0.4 0.2 35
4–8 Jun 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,002 45 – 5 6 5 0.1 0.5 0.1 39
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 49 – 4.2 7.1 – – – – 41.9
6–10 Apr 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 51 – 5 5 3 0.2 0.2 0.3 46
9–13 Feb 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 44 – 6 6 3 0.2 0.1 0.4 38
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 41.8 – 5.0 6.2 – – – – 35.6
24–28 Nov 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,008 39 – 7 6 4 0.1 0.1 0.4 32
15–19 Oct 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 42 – 7 5 4 0.1 – 1 35
2 Aug 2018 Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 40 – 10 2 5 0.3 0.2 0.9 30
21 Jun 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000[2] 40.2 – 9 3.7 4.6 – – 4.2 31.2
19–23 May 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 41 – 12 2 4 0.2 0.1 0.9 29
7–11 Apr 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 37 – 10 2 5 – 0.3 2 27
8 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[3]
27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[4]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 41 – 1 0.4 4 0.4 0.1 20 21
18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000[2] 37.9 – 0.5 – 5.7 0.1 – 25.7 12.2
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 37 – 0.3 0.7 5 0.4 – 28 9

Government approval rating

Individual polls

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Do not know Lead
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 51 26 23 25
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 887 66.5 20 13.5 46.5
24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017 Horizon Research 1,068 49 24 28 21
2–15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 894 58.5 27.5 14 31

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National[8] and that Botany will be returned to National,[9][10] but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[11]

Source Seats in Parliament[i] Likely
government
formation(s)
NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT MRI Total
Roy Morgan[12]
Sep 2020 poll 		38 61 0 12 9 0 120 Labour (61)
1 News–Colmar Brunton[13]
10–14 Oct 2020 poll 		40 59 0 11 10 0 120 Labour–Green (70)
Newshub–Reid Research[14]
8–15 Oct 2020 poll 		41 61 0 8 10 0 120 Labour (61)
2020 result 33 65 0 10 10 2 120 Labour (65)
  1. ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ a b 75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.

References

  1. ^ Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 5 November 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2018.
  2. ^ a b c "TV3 poll results". Reid Research. Archived from the original on 28 May 2018. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
  3. ^ a b "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. 8 April 2018. Archived from the original on 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
  4. ^ a b "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald. 27 February 2018. Archived from the original on 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
  5. ^ "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. 13 February 2018. Archived from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
  6. ^ Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. Archived from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
  7. ^ a b "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Archived from the original on 7 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
  8. ^ Keogh, Brittany (6 August 2020). "Election 2020: Doctor, businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat". Stuff. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  9. ^ "National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany". The New Zealand Herald. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  10. ^ Ensor, Jamie (15 September 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Jami-Lee Ross won't contest Botany electorate". Newshub. Retrieved 15 September 2020.
  11. ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  12. ^ "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday". Roy Morgan. 14 October 2020.
  13. ^ Whyte, Anna (15 October 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
  14. ^ O'Brien, Tova (16 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain". Newshub.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election&oldid=964388046"