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2020 Eden-Monaro by-election

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2020 Eden-Monaro by-election
← 2019 4 July 2020 (2020-07-04) Next →
Division of Eden-Monaro (NSW) in the House of Representatives
Registered114,244
Turnout89.08% Decrease 4.23%
  First party Second party
 
Candidate Kristy McBain Fiona Kotvojs
Party Labor Liberal
Popular vote 34,073 36,388
Percentage 35.83% 38.33%
Swing Decrease 3.28 Increase 1.32
TPP 50.39% 49.61%
TPP swing Decrease 0.46 Increase 0.46
The Division of Eden-Monaro in New South Wales
MP before election

Mike Kelly
Labor

Elected MP

Kristy McBain
Labor

The 2020 Eden-Monaro by-election was held on 4 July 2020 to elect the next Member of Parliament for the division of Eden-Monaro in the House of Representatives. The by-election was triggered following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Mike Kelly. Kelly resigned on 30 April 2020, citing ill health.[1]

The poll occurred amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, and was the first by-election of the 46th Parliament of Australia. On the morning after the by-election, ABC News psephologist Antony Green called the election for the Labor candidate Kristy McBain.[2]

Background

See also: Electoral results for the Division of Eden-Monaro

The electorate of Eden-Monaro has long been regarded as a bellwether seat. From the 1972 federal election to the 2013 federal election, the seat was won by a member of the same political party that also formed government following the election. At the 2016 election, the seat was won by Mike Kelly, who defeated incumbent Liberal MP Peter Hendy. Kelly, a veteran of the Australian Army, had previously represented the electorate in the House of Representatives between 2007 and 2013, and retained his seat at the 2019 election despite a 2% swing against him. Eden-Monaro is Labor's fourth-most marginal seat, being held by a margin of only 0.85%.[3]

Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party Scott Morrison confirmed that the party would contest a by-election in Eden-Monaro were it to occur.[4] Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the National Party Michael McCormack also declared his party would contest the by-election.[5]

After speculation that he would retire from politics, Kelly announced his resignation on 30 April, citing personal health issues relating to his time in the Australian Army.[1][6][7]

Two-party-preferred history since 1996

Election 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Labor 45.24% 49.82% 48.31% 47.86% 53.40% 54.24% 49.39% 52.93% 50.85%
Liberal 54.76% 50.18% 51.69% 52.14% 46.60% 45.76% 50.61% 47.07% 49.15%

Country/National Primary Vote History

Election 1966 1972 1974 1975 1984 1987 1990 1993 2019
 Primary Vote  8.7% 22.6% 30.1% 19.6% 3.9% 16.4% 9.5% 7.38% 6.95%

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[8]

  • Thursday, 28 May 2020 – Issue of writ
  • Thursday, 4 June 2020 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Tuesday, 9 June 2020 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Wednesday, 10 June 2020 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Monday, 15 June 2020 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 4 July 2020 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday, 17 July 2020 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Monday, 20 July 2020 – Declaration of result
  • Saturday, 5 September 2020 – Last day for return of writs

Preselection

Labor

Kristy McBain, Mayor of Bega Valley Shire, nominated for Labor preselection on 1 May 2020. Anthony Albanese, the federal Labor leader, endorsed McBain as his preferred candidate later that day.[9] On 4 May, McBain was preselected as Labor's candidate, against Yass Valley branch president Michael Pilbrow.[10]

Liberal

On 5 May, Andrew Constance, New South Wales Minister for Transport and Roads and state MP for Bega confirmed that he would seek Liberal Party preselection, before announcing the following day he would not run for the seat.[11][12] Jerry Nockles, a former Navy seaman, and Pru Gordon, the general manager for economics and trade at the National Farmers' Federation, were also named as potential candidates.[13][14]

Preselection for the Liberal Party was held on 22–23 May, and was contested by two candidates:[15]

Following the preselection, Kotvojs was endorsed as the Liberal Party candidate.[16][17]

Nationals

John Barilaro, the Deputy Premier of New South Wales and state MP for Monaro, had publicly expressed interest in running for Nationals preselection,[18] though on 4 May he announced that he would not stand for the seat.[19]

Preselection for the National Party was held on 6 June, and was contested by four candidates:[20]

  • Fleur Flanery, organiser of the Australian Landscape Conference,
  • Michael Green, farmer and chair of the NSW Farmers Association (Cooma branch),
  • Mareeta Grundy, former candidate for Queanbeyan–Palerang Regional Council, and
  • Trevor Hicks, former Deputy Mayor of Queanbeyan–Palerang Regional Council.

Following the preselection, Hicks was endorsed as the National Party candidate.[21]

Candidates

Candidates (14) in ballot paper order
Party Candidate Background
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Matthew Stadtmiller Hilltops councillor. Contested Cootamundra at 2017 state by-election and 2019 state election.[22]
  Science James Jansson Software developer, epidemiologist and party founder. Contested Kingsford Smith at the 2019 federal election.[23]
  HEMP Michael Balderstone Party leader and perennial candidate. Cannabis legalisation activist and president of the Nimbin Hemp Embassy.[24]
  Independent James Holgate Recruitment consultant.[25]
  National Trevor Hicks Former Queanbeyan–Palerang deputy mayor.[26]
  Liberal Democrats Dean McCrae Chef and party branch coordinator. Contested Goulburn and Lyne at the 2019 state and federal elections, respectively.[27]
  Sustainable Australia Joy Angel Office manager. Contested ACT Senate seat at the 2019 federal election.[28]
  Labor Kristy McBain Mayor of Bega Valley Shire.[10]
  Independent Riccardo Bosi Businessman, veteran. Member of unregistered Australia One party. Conservatives NSW Senate candidate at the 2019 federal election.[29]
  Independent Karen Porter Small business owner, member of unregistered New Liberals party.[30]
  Greens Cathy Griff Bega Valley Shire councillor.[31]
  Christian Democrats Narelle Storey Carer, founder of not-for-profit platform ReStore Australia. Contested Werriwa at the 2019 federal election.[32]
  Australian Federation Jason Potter Business consultant.[33]
  Liberal Fiona Kotvojs Former teacher, scientist and small business operator. Contested Eden-Monaro at the 2019 federal election.[17]

Opinion polling

Eden-Monaro by-election polling
Date Firm Commissioned by Sample Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB GRN NAT SFF OTH ALP LIB NAT
30 June 2020 uComms Australia Institute[34] 643 38.1% 37.5% 7.3% 5.0% 4.2% 7.9% 52% 48% –
16 June 2020 uComms Australian Forest Products Association[35] 816 – – 6.3% 6.7% 3.6% – 52% 48% –
15 June 2020 uComms Australia Institute[35] 643 36.5% 29.9% 8.1% 6.1% 6.5% 12.9% 53% 47% –
c. 12 June 2020 Internal polling Unconfirmed[36] 600 31% 38% 6% 6% 5% 14%^ – – –
12 May 2020 uComms Australia Institute[37][38] 978 39.8% 34.3% 6.7% 7.3% – 11.9%^ 51.1% 48.9% –
1 May 2020 Internal polling National Party[39] 1296 35% 21% 8% 30% – 6% 48% – 52%
30 April 2020 Mike Kelly announces retirement
18 May 2019 election 39.2% 37.0% 8.8% 7.0% – 8.1% 50.8% 49.2% –
Notes
1. ^ 3% One Nation, 11% others/undecided
2. ^ 6.5% One Nation, 5.4% others/undecided

Results

2020 Eden-Monaro by-election [40]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Fiona Kotvojs 36,388 38.33 +1.33
Labor Kristy McBain 34,073 35.89 −3.28
National Trevor Hicks 6,052 6.38 −0.57
Greens Cathy Griff 5,385 5.67 −3.11
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Matthew Stadtmiller 5,066 5.34 +5.34
HEMP Michael Balderstone 2,154 2.27 +2.27
Independent Karen Porter 1,218 1.28 +1.28
Science James Jansson 1,071 1.13 +1.13
Sustainable Australia Joy Angel 944 0.99 +0.99
Liberal Democrats Dean McCrae 651 0.69 +0.69
Independent James Holgate 636 0.67 −1.23
Christian Democrats Narelle Storey 614 0.65 −0.52
Independent Riccardo Bosi 513 0.54 +0.54
Federation Jason Potter 170 0.18 +0.18
Total formal votes 94,935 93.29 +0.09
Informal votes 6,832 6.71 −0.09
Turnout 101,767 89.08 −4.23
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Kristy McBain 47,835 50.39 −0.46
Liberal Fiona Kotvojs 47,100 49.61 +0.46
Labor hold Swing −0.46
Diagram of preference flows at the Eden-Monaro by-election

See also

References

  1. ^ a b Wheaton, Claire (30 April 2020). "Eden-Monaro MP Mike Kelly resigns, prompting by-election". ABC News. Retrieved 30 April 2020.
  2. ^ "Labor to win Eden-Monaro by-election thanks to preference flows: Antony Green". www.abc.net.au. 4 July 2020. Retrieved 5 July 2020.
  3. ^ Green, Antony. "2020 Eden-Monaro by-election". ABC News. Retrieved 28 May 2020.
  4. ^ Ferguson, Richard (29 April 2020). "Scott Morrison confirms Liberals will run in any Eden-Monaro by-election". The Australian. Retrieved 30 April 2020.
  5. ^ Chambers, Geoff; Moffet Gray, Lachlan (30 April 2020). "Nats will run in Eden-Monaro: McCormack". The Australian. Retrieved 30 April 2020.
  6. ^ Grattan, Michelle (27 April 2020). "Possible byelection looms in marginal seat of Eden-Monaro". The Conversation. Retrieved 30 April 2020.
  7. ^ McCulloch, Daniel (28 April 2020). "Labor MP Mike Kelly may retire within days". Eden Magnet. Retrieved 30 April 2020.
  8. ^ "Eden-Monaro by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 8 June 2020.
  9. ^ Pengilley, Victoria (1 May 2020). "Labor leader Anthony Albanese backs Bega Mayor Kristy McBain for Eden-Monaro by-election". ABC News. Retrieved 1 May 2020.
  10. ^ a b McDonald, Alasdair (4 May 2020). "By-election beckons former Bega mayor". Bega District News. Retrieved 4 May 2020.
  11. ^ Raper, Ashleigh (6 May 2020). "Andrew Constance pulls out of Liberal pre-selection race for Eden-Monaro by-election". ABC News (Australia). Retrieved 6 May 2020.
  12. ^ Burgess, Katie; Lawson, Kirsten (6 May 2020). "Andrew Constance withdraws from Eden-Monaro race, apologises for confusion". The Canberra Times. Retrieved 6 May 2020.
  13. ^ Crowe, David (6 May 2020). "Three Liberals fighting for Eden-Monaro as Navy veteran joins race". The Brisbane Times. Retrieved 6 May 2020.
  14. ^ Grattan, Michelle (6 May 2020). "View from The Hill: Albanese would have no excuse for an Eden-Monaro loss after Coalition high flyers implode". The Conversation. Retrieved 6 May 2020.
  15. ^ "Lib candidates for Eden-Monaro named". 9 News. AAP. 15 May 2020. Retrieved 17 May 2020.
  16. ^ "Fiona Kotvojs named Liberal nominee for Eden-Monaro by-election already mired in controversy". ABC News. 23 May 2020. Retrieved 23 May 2020.
  17. ^ a b "Eden-Monaro byelection: Fiona Kotvojs wins Liberal party preselection". The Guardian Australia. AAP. 24 May 2020. Retrieved 2 July 2020.
  18. ^ Visentin, Lisa (1 May 2020). "NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro to decide Eden-Monaro gamble over the weekend". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 1 May 2020.
  19. ^ "NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro won't run in Eden-Monaro". ABC News. 4 May 2020. Retrieved 4 May 2020.
  20. ^ Armstrong, Clare (3 June 2020). "Nats reveal Eden-Monaro preselection candidates". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 3 June 2020.
  21. ^ Burgess, Katie (6 June 2020). "Eden-Monaro byelection: Trevor Hicks to stand for the National Party". The Canberra Times. Retrieved 6 June 2020.
  22. ^ "Hilltops councillor Matthew Stadtmiller to run for Eden-Monaro seat as Shooters candidate". The Young Witness. 1 June 2020. Retrieved 1 June 2020.
  23. ^ "Science Party announces new formula for Eden-Monaro". South Coast Register. 25 May 2020. Retrieved 1 June 2020.
  24. ^ https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/end-prohibition-vote-hemp-an-interview-with-dr-andrew-katelaris-and-michael-balderstone/
  25. ^ https://www.begadistrictnews.com.au/story/6107069/eden-monaro-votes-meet-your-candidates/
  26. ^ "Eden-Monaro byelection: Trevor Hicks to stand for the National Party". The Canberra Times. 6 June 2020. Retrieved 6 June 2020.
  27. ^ "Liberal Democrats enter race for Eden-Monaro byelection". Bega District News. 14 May 2020. Retrieved 1 June 2020.
  28. ^ "Joy Angel stands for Sustainable Australia". Bega District News. 1 June 2020. Retrieved 1 June 2020.
  29. ^ "Riccardo Bosi Candidate for Eden-Monaro Federal Election". australiaoneparty.com.
  30. ^ Smyth, Ben (20 May 2020). "New Liberals candidate Karen Porter steps up for Eden-Monaro byelection". Yass Tribune. Australian Community Media. Retrieved 25 May 2020.
  31. ^ "Greens announce Bega Valley's Cathy Griff as candidate for Eden Monaro by-election". Power FM Far South Coast. 1 June 2020. Retrieved 1 June 2020.
  32. ^ Nile, Fred (19 May 2020). "Media Release: 2020 CDP Eden-Monaro Candidate — Narelle Storey" (PDF). Christian Democratic Party. Retrieved 28 May 2020.
  33. ^ "Jason Potter for Eden-Monaro". australianfederationparty.org.au.
  34. ^ "FINAL RESULTS" (PDF). uComms. Retrieved 3 July 2020.
  35. ^ a b "Labor to win Eden-Monaro: polls". The Australian. AAP. 18 June 2020.
  36. ^ "Liberal Party leads Eden-Monaro primary in new poll". Sky News Australia. Retrieved 12 June 2020.
  37. ^ McIlroy, Tom (15 May 2020). "Labor ahead in early Eden-Monaro poll". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 15 May 2020.
  38. ^ Bowe, William (15 May 2020). "Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings". The Pole Bludger. Retrieved 18 June 2020.
  39. ^ Chambers, Geoff (1 May 2020). "Polling puts John Barilaro in box seat to win Eden-Monaro by-election". The Australian. Retrieved 1 May 2020.
  40. ^ "Eden-Monaro, NSW". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 August 2020.
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