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2020 Bolivian general election

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2020 Bolivian general election
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Nominee Luis Arce Carlos Mesa Jeanine Áñez
Party MAS-IPSP FRI MDS
Alliance - Civic Community [a] [[Juntos[b]|Juntos[b]]]
Running mate David Choquehuanca Gustavo Pedraza Samuel Doria Medina
  File:Luis-Fernando-Camacho.png
Nominee Luis Fernando Camacho Chi Hyun Chung Jorge Quiroga
Party Independent FPV MNR
Alliance [[Creemos[c]|Creemos[c]]] - [[Libre 21[d]|Libre 21[d]]]
Running mate Marco Pumari Leopoldo Chui Tomasa Yarhui
 
Nominee Feliciano Mamani María de la Cruz Bayá
Party PAN-BOL ADN
Alliance - -
Running mate Ruth Nina Sergio Tarqui
Department winner
Incumbent Interim President

Jeanine Áñez
MDS



Politics of Bolivia
Constitution
Executive
Legislative
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Snap general elections are scheduled to be held in Bolivia on 18 October 2020.[1] They were initially scheduled to be held on 3 May 2020,[2] after the sequence of events that led to the installation of an interim government on 10 November 2019. However, they were postponed due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.[3] All major parties agreed with this measure and that a date for the new election would be chosen by the legislative assembly based on a public health evaluation at a later date.[4][5]

On 22 June 2020, Áñez approved a law passed by both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate to set a date for the election for 6 September 2020, with elected authorities in place by mid-to-late November 2020.[6][7][8]

On 23 July 2020, the TSE announced that the election will be postponed to 18 October 2020 due to medical reports that the pandemic will have its highest peaks in late August and early September.[9] Many opposition leaders, including Evo Morales, have condemned the delays, seeing the continued delays as an unconstititional attempt to remain in power, and some groups, including the Bolivian Workers' Center have planned protests.[10][11]

Background

Main articles: 2016 Bolivian constitutional referendum, 2019 Bolivian general election, 2019 Bolivian protests, and 2019 Bolivian political crisis
2019 Bolivian political crisis
Causes
Effects
Events
Elections
flag Bolivia portal

On 10 November 2019, after 19 days of civil protests following the disputed election results of October 2019 and the release of a report from the OAS, which alleged irregularities in the electoral process, the military and the police of Bolivia forced president Morales to resign. After General Williams Kaliman made the military's request for Morales's resignation public, Morales complied, accompanied by other resignations by high-level politicians throughout the day, some citing fears for the safety of their families. The government of Mexico offered political asylum to Morales the following day, which Morales accepted a day afterwards.[12][13]

As Vice-President Álvaro García Linera, President of the Senate Adriana Salvatierra and President of the Chamber of Deputies Víctor Borda, had already resigned, there existed no explicitly constitutionally-designated successors. Furthermore, the First Vice President of the Senate, Rubén Medinaceli, had also resigned.[14] This left Jeanine Áñez, the Second Vice President of the Senate, as the highest-ranking official still in office and prompted her to announce that she would be willing to ascend to the presidency on an interim basis in order to call for new elections. Thus, on 12 November 2019 Áñez took temporary charge of the Senate of Bolivia, thereby formally placing herself in the line of succession as acting President of the Senate, and on this basis proceeded to declare herself the Constitutional President of the country. Her accession to office was formally legitimized by a decision of the Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal later the same day, which stated that she had lawfully assumed office ipso facto, in accordance with the precedent laid out by Constitutional Declaration 0003/01 of 31 July 2001.[15][16]

On 20 November, Evo Morales offered to not run as a presidential candidate if he was allowed to return to Bolivia and conclude his term.[17]

The same day, the interim government presented a bill that aimed to forge a path to new elections. The two chambers of congress were expected to debate the bill which would annul the 20 October election and appoint a new electoral board within 15 days of its passage, paving the way for a new vote.[18] The bill, drafted jointly by Morales' Movement for Socialism (MAS) and anti-Morales legislators, was approved on 23 November; it also prohibited Morales from participating in the fresh election.[19] In exchange, Áñez's government agreed to withdraw the armed forces from all protest areas (although some servicemen were still permitted to stay at some state companies to "prevent vandalism"), revoke her decree which granted the army immunity from criminal prosecution, release arrested pro-Morales protesters, protect lawmakers and social leaders from attacks and provide compensation for the families of those killed during the crisis. She approved the bill shortly thereafter.[20]

On 5 December, Áñez stated that she would not be a candidate or support any candidate.[21] This was further reiterated on 15 January 2020 by Minister for the Presidency Yerko Núñez, who said that "[Áñez] will not be a candidate. The President has stated on several occasions, she will not be a candidate, this is a government of peace, transition, and management because you can not stop the state apparatus."[22]

However, despite her previous statements, Áñez announced her candidacy on 24 January 2020.[23] A survey reported in the Bolivian newspaper Los Tiempos indicated that, while 43% of respondents considered her to have done a "good or very good" job as interim president (compared to 27% bad or very bad), only 24% of respondents believed that she should stand as a candidate in the upcoming elections. In the same poll, 63% of respondents agreed with the statement that "as interim president, Jeanine Áñez should call elections and not take advantage of her power to become a presidential candidate."[24]

Electoral system

The President of Bolivia is elected using a modified two-round system: a candidate is declared the winner if they receive more than 50% of the vote, or over 40% of the vote and are 10 percentage points ahead of their closest rival.[25] If neither condition is met, a run-off election is held between the two top candidates.[26]

Presidential candidates

As of 28 January 2020, ten candidates had officially stated their intention to run for the presidency.[27][28][29][30][31] [32][33][34][35][36]

On 18 January 2020, the Unity Pact of MAS bases elected David Choquehuanca and Andrónico Rodríguez as presidential and vice-presidential candidates. On 19 January, Evo Morales announced that Luis Alberto Arce Catacora and David Choquehuanca would be the party's presidential and vice presidential candidates. This was following a vote by those members of MAS leadership present in Buenos Aires the previous day.[37] This difference caused some friction among different sections of the MAS bases, including the Barolina Sisa and Tupac Katari Federation who rejected these selections.[38][39] On 21 January, the Central Obrera Boliviana (COB) supplied a third candidacy combination of Choquehuanca paired with Orlando Gutiérrez. MAS President of the Senate, Eva Copa, said the matter was not yet closed and would be decided by a further meeting of the Unity Pact.[40] On 23 January, the Unity Pact ratified the Arce-Choquehuanca ticket chosen in Buenos Aires.[41] On 24 January, a new right-wing political alliance called "We Believe" ("Creemos") was formed, and endorsed the Camacho-Pumariticket.[42] By the registration deadline, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced that five policial coalitions had been registered.[43] However, on 31 January the TSE announced that the coalition "United People" had been disqualified after not submitting the required documents.[44]

In July 2020, a lawsuit was filed by four separate political parties (among others) with the Supreme Electoral Court asking it to disqualify Arce from from standing in the presidential election. The lawsuit stated Arce had released an opinion poll on the presidential race outside the time frame allowed. The Morning Star newspaper reported that the suit may also be seeking to have MAS disbanded and its status as a legal political party annulled.[45] In 2015, a similar complaint was filed against Ernesto Suárez, leader of the opposition UD bench in the Department of Beni, regarding release of polls by outgoing governor campaign manager Carmelo Lens. This resulted in Suárez and 227 other UD canditates having their legal status cancelled and removed from the election. At the time, Suárez was three points ahead of the MAS candidate for governor, Álex Ferrier. [46]

Party Presidential candidate Vice presidential candidate
Movement for Socialism (MAS) Luis Alberto Arce Catacora David Choquehuanca
Civic Community[e] Carlos Mesa Gustavo Pedraza
Libre 21[f] Jorge Quiroga Ramírez Tomasa Yarhui
Juntos[g] Jeanine Áñez Samuel Doria Medina[47]
We Believe[h] Luis Fernando Camacho Marco Pumari
The Front For Victory[48] Chi Hyun Chung Leopoldo Chui
National Action Party of Bolivia Feliciano Mamani Ruth Nina
Nationalist Democratic Action María de la Cruz Bayá Sergio Tarqui

Opinion polls

First round

2020
Poll source Date(s)
administered[49] 		Luis
Arce 		Carlos
Mesa 		Jeanine
Áñez 		Luis F.
Camacho 		Chi Hyun
Chung 		Jorge
Qurioga 		Feliciano
Mamani 		Other Would not
vote 		Undecided
Mercados y Muestras SRL[1] July 11–July 16, 2020 24% 20% 16% 5% 3% 3% - - 9% 20%
CELAG[2][note] June 13–July 3, 2020 41.9% 26.8% 13.3% 9.1% 4.5% 4.4% - - - -
Ciesmori[3] March 5–11, 2020 33.3% 18.3% 16.9% 7.1% 3.8% 1.7% 1.9% - 6.2% 2.8%
CELAG[4][note] February 10–March 4, 2020 33.1% 17.4% 20.5% 7.4% 5.6% 1.5% 1.3% - 5.7% 7.5%
Miský Utaha´a[5] February 21–23, 2020 29.2% 15.3% 13.7% 11.1% 8.6% 6.7% 0.5% 0.1%[i] 11.3% 3.5%
Mercados y Muestras SRL[6] February 14–17, 2020 27% 19% 18% 12% 5% 2% 0% - 7% 9%
Ciesmori[7] February 7–13, 2020 31.6% 17.1% 16.5% 9.6% 5.4% 1.6% 1.6% 0.5%[j] 7.5% 8.7%
January 24, 2020 Áñez announces her candidacy[50]
January 19, 2020 Arce announced as candidate of MAS[51]
United States Embassy[8] January 2020 37% 9% 9% 11% 4% - - 3% 7% 20%
Mercados y Muestras SRL[9] January 9–13, 2020 26% 17% 12% 17% 6% 3% - 2%[k] 8% 9%
2019
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		MAS
Candidate 		Carlos
Mesa 		Jeanine
Áñez 		Luis F.
Camacho 		Chi Hyun
Chung 		Marco
Pumari 		Ortiz
Antelo 		Félix
Patzi 		Doria
Medina 		Jorge
Quiroga 		Johnny
Fernandez 		Other Would not
vote 		Undecided
Ciesmori December 21–30, 2019 20.7%[l] 13.8% 15.6% 6.9% 8.1% 8.2% - - 1.8% 1.6% - 0.9% 10.2% 12.2%
Mercados y Muestras SRL[10] December 13–16, 2019 23%[m] 21% - 13% 9% 10% - - - 2% - - 14% 8%
Captura Consulting[11][52][53] December 5–15, 2019 18.4%[n] 11.9% 7.5% 12.8% 8.5% - 3.7% 2.8% 2.1% 1.8% 1.0% 2.6% 5.1% 21.8%
12.0%[o] 13.7% 10.0% - 9.4% 8.0% 4.8% 3.7% 2.5% 1.7% 2.3% 3.5% 5.1% 23.3%
13.6%[p] 10.6% 7.3% 11.1% 8.4% 5.7% 4.2% 2.6% 2.2% 2.7% - 11.0%[q] 3.0% 17.6%
Mercados y Muestras SRL November 26–27, 2019 16%[r] 14% - 16% 10% 16% - - - - - 8% 8% 12%
^ Note: The Latin American Strategic Centre for Geopolitics (CELAG) survey is often criticized for its alleged bias towards MAS because Álvaro García Linera, who served as Bolivian vice president, is part of its advisory council[54] and several of its executives are people with a political militancy and with party ideology.[55] This organization does not appear on the list of entities authorized by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to disseminate surveys.[56][57]

Second round

Arce v. Áñez
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Arce Áñez Would not
vote 		Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 43.2% 42.6% 8.3% 6%
Mercados y Muestras February 14–17, 2020 36% 48% 12% 4%
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 42.3% 43.6% 10.6% 3.5%
Arce v. Mesa
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Arce Mesa Would not
vote 		Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 42.9% 41% 10.4% 5.7%
Mercados y Muestras February 14–17, 2020 37% 48% 11% 4%
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 40.8% 40.7% 15.2% 3.3%
Arce v. Camacho
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Arce Camacho Would not
vote 		Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 46% 42% 16% 5.9%
Mercados y Muestras February 14–17, 2020 40% 37% 19% 4%
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 44.5% 33.6% 18% 3.9%
Mesa v. Áñez
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Mesa Áñez Would not
vote 		Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 32.6% 31.6% 29.6% 6.2%
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 30.3% 33.8% 32.3% 3.6%
Camacho v. Áñez
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Camacho Áñez Would not
vote 		Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 15.6% 41.4% 37.0% 6%
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 16.3% 40.8% 38.7% 4.2%

International reactions

Representatives of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Organization of American States (OAS) arrived in Bolivia on 9 January 2020 to monitor the 3 May elections. USAID had been expelled in 2013 by Evo Morales.[58][unreliable source?]

Notes

  1. ^ Coalition consisting of FRI, JESUCA and Chuquisaca Para Todos
  2. ^ Coalition consisting of MDS, UN and Sol.Bo
  3. ^ Coalition consisting of ADN, PDC and UCS
  4. ^ Coalition consisting of MNR and MPS
  5. ^ Coalition consisting of FRI, JESUCA and Chuquisaca Para Todos
  6. ^ Coalition consisting of MNR and MPS
  7. ^ Coalition consisting of MDS, UN and Sol.Bo
  8. ^ Coalition consisting of PDC and UCS
  9. ^ ADN candidate with 0.1%
  10. ^ Schabib with 0.5%
  11. ^ Patzi with 1%, Doria Medina with 1%
  12. ^ Generic MAS candidate
  13. ^ Andrónico Rodríguez
  14. ^ Andrónico Rodríguez
  15. ^ David Choquehuanca
  16. ^ Luis Arce Catacora
  17. ^ Albarracín with 1.1%, others with 9.9%
  18. ^ Andrónico Rodríguez

References

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  2. ^ "Para mayo las nuevas elecciones en Bolivia". El Vocero de Puerto Rico (in European Spanish). Retrieved 4 January 2020.
  3. ^ "Electoral court postpones Bolivia general election over virus". Outlook (India). Retrieved 22 March 2020.
  4. ^ "Copa Says Legislative Will Define New Election Date After Quarantine". La Razon (in Spanish). 24 March 2020.
  5. ^ "Parties in the electoral race avoid fixing the date of the elections; await quarantine report". La Razon (in Spanish). 25 March 2020.
  6. ^ "After warning of risk, Añez promulgates the law of elections between reproaches of MAS and CC" (in Spanish). 22 June 2020.
  7. ^ "See the electoral calendar for 2020 elections". 26 June 2020.
  8. ^ "Las elecciones en Bolivia se realizarán el 6 de septiembre". NODAL. 3 June 2020. Retrieved 4 June 2020.
  9. ^ de 2020, 23 de Julio. "El Tribunal Electoral de Bolivia volvió a aplazar las elecciones presidenciales para el 18 de octubre". infobae (in European Spanish). Retrieved 24 July 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  10. ^ Morales, Evo (27 July 2020). "Condemnation". Twitter. Retrieved 28 July 2020.
  11. ^ "Bolivia: organizaciones de todo el país se suman a la marcha de mañana contra la postergación de las elecciones". Nodal. 27 July 2020. Retrieved 28 July 2020.
  12. ^ "Mexico says it would offer asylum to Bolivia's Morales if he sought it". 11 November 2019 – via www.reuters.com.
  13. ^ "Bolivia crisis: Evo Morales accepts political asylum in Mexico". BBC News. BBC. 12 November 2019. Retrieved 12 November 2019.
  14. ^ Faiola, Anthony. "Evo Morales resigns as Bolivia's president after OAS election audit, protests". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 12 November 2019. Retrieved 12 November 2019.
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  17. ^ "Evo Morales ofreció no presentarse a elecciones si le permiten regresar a Bolivia y terminar su mandato". Bloomberg (in Spanish). Infobae. 20 November 2019. Archived from the original on 21 November 2019. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
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  34. ^ "Jallalla Bolivia presenta a una mujer aymara como candidata a la vicepresidencia". noticiasfides.com (in European Spanish). 23 January 2020. Retrieved 23 January 2020.
  35. ^ "Doria Medina será el acompañante de Añez en la carrera electoral". paginasiete.bo (in European Spanish). 31 January 2020. Retrieved 31 January 2020.
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  38. ^ "The social and peasant organizations of the department of La Paz feel betrayed by the decision of Evo Morales" (in Spanish). 21 January 2020.
  39. ^ "Morales defends Arce, but more voices of rejection arise" (in Spanish). 22 January 2020.
  40. ^ "Copa MAS Binomial: We take it as a proposal to be debated" (in Spanish). 22 January 2020.
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  42. ^ "Three parties join to endorse the Camacho-Pumari ticket" (in Spanish). 24 January 2020.
  43. ^ "These are all alliances that submitted their applications for registration before the Supreme Electoral Tribunal" (in Spanish). 25 January 2020.
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  52. ^ @pepepomacusi (19 December 2019). "La nueva intención de voto: Bolivia eje central Arce 13.6% Camacho 11.1% Mesa 10.6% Chi 8.4% Jeanine 7.3% Pumari 5.7% Medición 5 a 15 de diciembre 2019 Encuesta de Captura Consulting para Poder y Placer (Tercero de tres escenarios medidos. Acá, medidos Arce, Camacho y Pumari)" (Tweet). Retrieved 7 June 2020 – via Twitter.
  53. ^ @pepepomacusi (19 December 2019). "La nueva intención de voto: Bolivia eje central Mesa 13.7% Choquehuanca 12.0% Jeanine 10.0% Chi 9.4% Pumari 8.0% Medición 5 al 15 de diciembre de 2019 Encuesta de Captura Consulting para Poder y Placer (Segundo de tres escenarios medidos. Acá, medidos Choquehuanca y Pumari)" (Tweet). Retrieved 7 June 2020 – via Twitter.
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  57. ^ "Celag y su desacertada encuesta". JORNADA (in Spanish). 10 July 2020. Retrieved 13 July 2020.
  58. ^ Higgins, Eoin (10 January 2020). "USAID Arriving in Bolivia to 'Monitor Elections,' Raising Fears of US Meddling in May 3 Vote". Common Dreams. Retrieved 23 January 2020.
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